Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a tin production of 5,200 tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37% [1]. - The average selling price of tin metal for the first three quarters of 2025 was $33,596 per ton, an 8% increase compared to $31,183 per ton in the same period last year [1]. - The electronic manufacturing industry is expected to be the main driver of tin demand, with a projected increase in tin usage of 0.6% in 2025, reaching 380,160 metric tons [7]. Production and Sales Summary - In Q3 2025, the company’s tin metal production was 3,985 tons, a 16% decrease year-on-year but a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The sales volume of tin metal in Q3 2025 was 3,486 tons, reflecting a 32% year-on-year decrease but a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - Domestic refined tin sales accounted for 7% of total sales, while export sales made up 93%, with Japan and Singapore being the largest markets [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.38 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a 22% year-on-year decrease but a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was 662 billion Indonesian Rupiah, down 24% year-on-year but up 46% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was 301.93 billion Indonesian Rupiah, a 36% year-on-year decrease but a 65% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, total assets increased by 7% to 13.7 trillion Indonesian Rupiah compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - Total liabilities grew by 14% to 6.1 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, primarily due to increases in accounts payable and short-term bank loans [3]. - The company’s net assets stood at 7.61 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [4]. Market Outlook - The tin market is expected to remain tight due to limited supply from key producing regions, with projected tin prices in 2025 ranging from $32,254 to $34,000 per ton [7]. - The demand for tin is anticipated to be influenced by growth in electronics, semiconductors, and AI sectors, alongside macroeconomic factors such as fiscal stimulus in China and U.S. Federal Reserve policies [7].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：宏观拉动价格上涨，前高有压力 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：288000-295000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01-03 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-08 03-19 03-31 04-12 04-23 05-07 05-19 05-29 06-11 06-24 07-07 07-17 07-29 08-09 08-20 09-01 09-11 09-23 10-11 10-22 11-03 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-17 12-30 吨 全球锡总库存 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Indonesia's tin exports are experiencing a recovery due to rising international tin prices and the restoration of domestic production capacity, despite ongoing governance issues that hinder the industry's competitiveness [1][2][4] Group 2 - From January to September, Indonesia exported 37,600 tons of refined tin, reaching 68% of the government's annual export quota, with a 25.8% increase in export value in the third quarter, amounting to $1.16 billion [2] - The international tin price has been driven up by the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka-Belitung province, which raised concerns about global tin supply tightening, leading to a surge in London Metal Exchange (LME) tin prices, with November contracts exceeding $37,000 per ton [2][3] - The recovery of Indonesia's tin exports is supported by the approval of project plans and export licenses for 23 companies, indicating a restoration of order in the industry [3] Group 3 - Governance reforms are identified as a critical variable affecting the long-term competitiveness of Indonesia's tin industry, with a consensus on the need for a unified and transparent tin benchmark price system [4][5] - The Indonesian parliament is accelerating the legislative process for the benchmark price system, aiming to establish a national pricing formula by January 1, 2026, to address issues of price manipulation and resource outflow [4] - PT Timah, as a leading company, is initiating pilot projects for the legalization of artisanal miners and is advocating for the government to expedite the introduction of relevant regulations to enhance the tin industry's compliance and stability [4][5] Group 4 - The political landscape shows a strong stance against illegal mining, with President Prabowo indicating that illegal tin mining and smuggling have caused Indonesia an annual loss of approximately 40 trillion Indonesian rupiah (around $2.4 billion) over the past 20 years [5]

数据来源：印尼贸易部 印尼贸易部公布的数据显示，印尼10月出口2,643.05吨精炼锡，较去年同期减少53.89%，环比下降 46%。受印尼打击非法锡矿及6家被查封冶炼厂移交国企PT Timah的影响，10月印尼锡锭出口显著减 少。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has led to an expectation of tight supply and demand. However, due to the hawkish shift in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and tight liquidity, the Shanghai tin price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The Shanghai tin basis is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within the reasonable range. This is due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, leading to an expected tight supply, and a decline in the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad. However, with the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, tight liquidity, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and within the reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is because the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US in October was weak, and the inventory of refined tin in the LME is increasing but still at a relatively low level. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the LME has increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has decreased compared to last week [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin ore has decreased, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic tin ore [19][20]. - The production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in November may increase month - on - month. Reasons include the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian president, the commissioning of the second concentrator of the Uis mine in Namibia, the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC, and the suspension of the transit export of Myanmar tin ore through Thailand [22][24]. - The production volume of recycled tin in China in November may increase month - on - month [25][26]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat) compared to last week; the production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in November may increase (decrease) month - on - month [29]. - The import volume of refined tin in China in November may increase month - on - month. The export volume of refined tin from Indonesia is expected to increase, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports [30][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in November [36]. - The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in November may decrease (increase) month - on - month [37][39]. - The production (import, export) volume of tin - plated sheets in China in November may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month [40]. - The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has decreased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect the demand for tin [42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations support tin prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with the initial agreement in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, suggest that the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may not change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to build long positions after price pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to high tin prices suppressing downstream demand with only rigid procurement. Given the Fed's future policies and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, investors are advised to focus on short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai tin basis. For LME tin, the positive (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are in a reasonable range, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range. LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [9][10]. - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin on the London Metal Exchange increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines. The production (import) volume of domestic tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [19][21][24]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in China increased compared to last week. The production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in October increased (decreased) month - on - month, and the import volume may increase month - on - month [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in October. The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in October may decrease (decrease) month - on - month [35][38]. - The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China increased compared to last week [41][43][46].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Tin [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Wenhu [2] - Contact: 021 - 51801878 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations weighs on tin prices, but the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, along with the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be weak first and then strong. Investors are advised to mainly buy on price dips, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's future interest rate cut and halt of balance - sheet reduction expectations and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the Fed's expectations and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in LME, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10] - The inventory of refined tin in SHFE decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in LME increased compared with last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [12] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines [18][19] - The production (import) volume of Chinese tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. Factors include the resumption of mines in Myanmar, Indonesia's mine policies, and the situation in other countries [21][23] - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in October increased month - on - month [24][25] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined tin increased compared with last week. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October increased (decreased) month - on - month [26][28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month due to the production plans of foreign mines and export forecasts [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [41][43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries increased compared with last week. As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect tin demand [44][46]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation, but expectations for marginally looser supply in the long term are increasing due to the gradual resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines. Demand recovery is slow, leading to limited overall demand growth and continued price fluctuations in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The domestic tin ore market remains relatively tight, with a slight decline in tin concentrate imports in September. Imports from Myanmar are increasing, while imports from other major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are decreasing but still within normal ranges [1]. - Tin processing fees are maintaining low levels, and the raw material inventory of major domestic tin smelting enterprises is generally below 30 days, indicating a tight supply situation [1]. - The increase in operating rates in Yunnan is primarily due to seasonal maintenance completion at large smelting plants, but the driving force for sustained recovery in operating rates remains insufficient due to ongoing tight raw material supply [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Recent declines in tin prices have led to increased willingness among downstream buyers to inquire and purchase, resulting in slight improvements in spot trading. However, overall consumption recovery remains limited, particularly in the home appliance sector [2]. - There has been a notable increase in domestic mobile phone shipments in July, indicating a recovery in demand in the mobile market, with consumer purchasing willingness strengthening. The release of new products may further boost electronic product order levels, contingent on improvements in terminal order levels [2]. - The overall performance of consumption is currently poor, with the recovery in the terminal market during the peak season not meeting expectations. International trade tensions are negatively impacting the semiconductor market [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of tin is in a short - term tight balance. In the global macro - loose cycle, the medium - term demand is not pessimistic. However, in the short term, there is an expected increase in supply due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, and the growth of tin demand from consumer electronics is not obvious. So, it is not recommended to chase high prices, and buying on dips may have a higher probability of success [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative refined tin output was 127,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.95%. The smelter's operating rate in September was 38.6%, and some enterprises had maintenance in September [5] - In Yunnan, most smelters' output decreased month - on - month, with some having maintenance and production stagnation, and the tin ore supply was still tight. In Guangxi, enterprises' output decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight raw materials. In Jiangxi, the smelter output decreased slightly due to tight raw materials and policy reasons [5] - In October 2025, as large smelters resume production and most sample enterprises maintain stable operation, the domestic refined tin output is expected to rise to about 14,500 tons [5] - Due to the slow increase in the output of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, China's overall tin ore imports remain at a low level, and tin ingot supply has been low. In the fourth quarter, tin ingot supply may increase significantly after the supply of tin mines in Myanmar gradually expands [2][16] Demand - side - In Q3 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 10% year - on - year, the highest since the peak demand during the 2022 pandemic. The growth rate of mobile phone consumption rebounded slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 2%. IDC predicts that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The emerging 3C electronic consumption areas driven by AI are still in the initial stage and have little impact on overall demand [8] - The construction of 5G communication equipment and large - scale data center servers requires a large number of circuit boards and connection components, and the tin consumption is increasing steadily. With continuous investment in global AI - related capital expenditure, the server scale is growing rapidly. IDC data predicts that AI server shipments will increase by 26% year - on - year to 1.895 million units in 2025 and continue to grow in 2026 [8] - In September 2025, China's automobile sales reached 3.226 million, a record high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [8] - Other non - semiconductor demand is relatively stable. Tin consumption in the tinplate field has declined slightly as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The output of PVC has increased slightly year - on - year in the first three quarters, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [12] - Downstream new energy vehicles and AI servers continue to be booming, traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are experiencing a mild recovery, while the photovoltaic field is relatively weak due to over - capacity and trade frictions [2][16]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation after a pull - back from the high. The Fed officials sent dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and market sentiment was still pessimistic. The supply side faced significant pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and ongoing maintenance of some domestic smelters. Demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Overall, it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Affected by macro - upward drivers and a large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - position asset. In the short term, enter the market on dips [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices oscillated narrowly after a pull - back from the high. Macro factors included dovish Fed signals and strengthened interest - rate cut expectations, with high gold prices and pessimistic market sentiment. On the fundamental side, there were continuous disturbances in mines at home and abroad and maintenance of some domestic smelters, leading to supply - side pressure. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Tin is considered a long - position asset, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [2] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Volatility and Forecast**: The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 280,750 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 19.31%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 49.6% [18] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 288,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (SN2511C290000) when volatility is appropriate. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 277,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of put options (SN2511P270000) when volatility is appropriate [21] - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees**: The tin import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 4,721.03 yuan and a weekly decline of 24.52%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no change [21] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government shutdown has lasted for over half a month. On October 16, the US Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill still failed to pass, and there is no sign of the shutdown ending in the short term [22] - **Negative Information**: Alphamin Resources increased its annual tin production forecast to 18,000 - 18,500 tons, with a 26.4% increase in the third - quarter output compared to the previous quarter and a 5.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The Indonesian president transferred six seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise. Cornish Metals plans to produce 49,000 tons of tin, 3,800 tons of copper, and 3,200 tons of zinc annually, with production expected to start in mid - 2028. Nathan Trotter started the construction of a secondary tin smelter in the US with an investment of $65 million [23][24][25] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% week - on - week. The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 60% week - on - week. The 40% tin concentrate price is 269,000 yuan/ton, down 2.32% week - on - week, and the 60% tin concentrate price is 273,000 yuan/ton, down 2.29% week - on - week. The prices of 60A and 63A solder bars also decreased [24] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced [27] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures Price and Change**: The latest price of the Shanghai tin main contract is 280,750 yuan/ton, down 1.96% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - one contract is 281,180 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - three contract is 281,350 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the LME tin 3M is $35,030/ton, down 0.91% week - on - week; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 1.94% week - on - week [27] - **Inventory and Change**: The Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,652 tons, down 2.7% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin inventory is 5,879 tons, down 8.55% week - on - week; the LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,505 tons, up 15.44% week - on - week; the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 230 tons, down 4.17% week - on - week; the LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, up 7.74% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 1.13% week - on - week [28] - **Domestic Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly this week, closing at 280,700 yuan/ton. Profitable positions were mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis and monthly - spread structure were stable, and the Shanghai tin term structure maintained a C - structure. The LME tin term structure maintained a B - structure, and the forward trading volume was small. The domestic - foreign spread was stable and oscillated narrowly [29][31][35] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have been hovering at historical lows, suppressing smelters' profits and production willingness [38] 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - No specific profit - tracking content is summarized, mainly presenting import volume seasonal charts of Chinese tin ore and unforged non - alloy tin [40][41] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Mine - end disturbances and smelter losses have brought significant pressure to the supply side [42] 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - No specific demand - side deduction content is summarized, mainly presenting seasonal charts of China's refined tin production, domestic recycled refined tin monthly production, SMM tin solder enterprise monthly starting rate, and tin ingot monthly apparent consumption [48][49]