Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to seasonal demand weakness and the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar, leading to a significant price drop at the end of May [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side remains a key focus, with rumors of resumed tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region contributing to price declines. The International Tin Association reported that production in Wa has fully resumed since late April, with the first batch receiving export permits by the end of May [2][3]. - China's tin concentrate imports hit a near-record low in April, with the Democratic Republic of Congo surpassing Myanmar as the largest source of imports. The recovery of Myanmar's production is expected to take time to reach historical capacity levels [2][3]. - As of the end of May, processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi have dropped to their lowest levels in five years, indicating tightening supply affecting smelting profits. The overall refined tin supply may tighten due to reduced imports and ongoing inventory consumption [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Despite some resilience in demand, the overall performance is mixed. The photovoltaic sector shows growth, while the semiconductor industry has seen production increases but faces weakening in end-product demand [3][4]. - The PVC sector is operating at high rates but is experiencing significant losses, and the real estate market remains sluggish, impacting demand for PVC and related products [3][4]. - Domestic tin social inventory continues to decline and is at historically low levels, with increased replenishment willingness observed as prices drop significantly [3][4]. Market Outlook - The outlook for June indicates that while short-term price stabilization may occur, uncertainties regarding tariffs and the anticipated recovery in supply, coupled with marginal demand declines, will likely exert downward pressure on tin prices [2][4].

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 Renison 锡精矿产量/销量分别环比增长（- 27%）/3%至 2,432 吨/3,230 吨，锡 AISC 环比上涨 22%至 33,482 澳元/吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q1 生产经营情况（Metals X 持有 Renison 50%股份， 除非有特殊说明，均为 100%基准） 1）产量 2025Q1 锡 C1 现金生产成本估计为 20,597 澳元/吨，环比 上涨 27%，同比上涨 12%。 2025Q1 锡 AISC 为 33,482 澳元/吨，环比上涨 22%，同比 上涨 2%。 2025Q1 Renison 锡精矿总产量达 2,432 吨，环比减少 27%，同比增长 7%。由于与丛林火灾相关的现场撤离和电力 供应中断，生产受到意外停机的影响。尽管出现了这些干扰， 处理厂的回收率仍保持在 80%以上。本季度面临的挑战包括由 于丛林火灾干扰导致的磨矿产量暂时停滞，以及由于浆料填充 顺序 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 Renison 锡精矿产量/销量分别环比增长（- 27%）/3%至 2,432 吨/3,230 吨，锡 AISC 环比上涨 22%至 33,482 澳元/吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q1 生产经营情况（Metals X 持有 Renison 50%股份， 除非有特殊说明，均为 100%基准） 1）产量 2025Q1 Renison 锡精矿总产量达 2,432 吨，环比减少 27%，同比增长 7%。由于与丛林火灾相关的现场撤离和电力 供应中断，生产受到意外停机的影响。尽管出现了这些干扰， 处理厂的回收率仍保持在 80%以上。本季度面临的挑战包括由 于丛林火灾干扰导致的磨矿产量暂时停滞，以及由于浆料填充 顺序的时机导致的采矿顺序延迟。此外，处理厂在 3 月份进行 了计划停机，以完成必要的维护活动，如更换棒磨机衬里、进 行定期驱动器更换和修理浮选槽。在停机前的 48 小时内，由 于棒磨机下线以进行关键路径活动 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have rebounded due to market corrections after a significant decline, despite ongoing supply constraints and uncertain recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [1][2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Tin prices rose by 3.14%, closing at 257,940 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of supply recovery from Myanmar, although these expectations remain unconfirmed [1] - Domestic supply of tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remains at historical lows, nearing smelter cost lines, which severely squeezes profit margins [1] - In May, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply chain [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate of domestic smelters has slightly declined due to ongoing supply chain constraints, with some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning maintenance shutdowns in June [1] - The tightening of tin concentrate and scrap supply continues to impose rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains stable, but future expectations are weak, with consumption growth in the tin end market driven by national policy support and product upgrades in the first four months of the year [1] - After a policy retreat in May, the photovoltaic market's consumption began to face pressure, while mid-year promotional activities are expected to boost demand in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - However, entering the traditional off-season in July and August, combined with high finished product inventories, may slow down the growth rate of tin terminal consumption [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent price declines have improved market sentiment for stocking up, although end customers maintain a cautious approach with general order situations [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while supply expectations have not yet materialized, the current situation remains tight, and low operating rates at smelters persist [2] - Domestic inventory has significantly decreased, while overseas stocks remain low, providing some short-term support for prices [2]

4月初受贸易冲突升级影响，沪锡承压大跌，但随着关税暂停，锡价震荡回升，修复此前跌幅，回归到 刚果（金）锡矿供应扰动之前的价位。不过，上周市场对有关佤邦地区复产交费传言反应激烈，锡价破 位下行，本周初延续弱势，主力合约跌破25万整数关口。目前市场传言尚无法证实，且据SMM了解， 目前缴费办理采矿证的企业不多，持观望态度较多，多数头部矿贸商都并未缴纳管理费。且目前中缅边 境审查较为严格，多数大型器械和相关采矿人员入关手续较为繁杂，当前佤邦地区复产进度或不及市场 预期。那么，当下的锡价是否仍具备继续下行的动力呢？ 锡矿现实供应紧缺 后续增加预期提升 SHMET 网讯： 近两年对于沪锡的炒作主要围绕供应方面，因为锡在地壳中的含量有限，属于相对稀缺的金属，且供应 集中度高，主要分布在中国、印尼、缅甸、澳大利亚等地。2023年8月1日缅甸暂停锡矿开采后，全球锡 资源一直处于供应相对紧张的局面。因此，市场对供应端的信息比较敏感，有任何风吹草动，都会引发 市场剧烈波动。缅甸禁矿初期，由于仍有库存矿石可供出口，我国锡矿进口量仍能维持在较高水平。但 随着库存消耗殆尽，从去年二季度开始，我国进口锡矿规模断崖式下滑，国内锡矿供应紧张 ...

专题报告 2025-06-03 全球锡矿梳理（二） 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 上篇报告我们从锡矿储量分布出发，梳理了全球锡矿生产腹地-亚洲地区的锡矿产能及未来增 量情况。本篇报告分析了除亚洲外全球其他地区的锡矿产量变化。总体来看，除亚洲外全球锡 矿新项目并不多，且增量乏善可陈。2025 年锡矿供应的主要变量仍集中在缅甸曼相锡矿能否顺 利复产。目前看，缅甸锡矿的复产或已只是时间问题，印尼地区 2025 年锡矿产量也有望进一 步回暖，锡矿供应或在未来一年内由紧缺逐步转为宽松。 有色金属研究 | 锡 非洲主要锡矿项目 非洲在近年锡产业中扮演日益重要的角色。2024 年非洲锡矿总产量达到 4 万吨以上，同比增长近 23%，增量主要由刚果（金）的 Bisie 矿山贡献。此外，2024 年非洲其他地区的锡矿产量也有增 长，特别是尼日利亚和卢旺达，其同比增长率分别为 41%和 ...

电动汽车的日益普及增加了对锡的需求，锡是一种提高锂离子电池性能的负极材料。印尼是全球第二大 精炼锡生产国，但非法采矿一直是该行业的一个主要问题。 据当地媒体报道，今年4月，印尼当局没收了五家涉嫌参与非法采矿的冶炼厂。这些冶炼厂现在将由国 家管理。 司法部长办公室表示，此次查封并不是为了停止锡矿勘探，预计在新管理层的领导下，开采工作将很快 恢复。 对非法采矿的打击限制了印尼2024年产量，加剧全球供应紧张。专家对S&P Global Commodity Insights 表示，预期中的冶炼厂重启将有助于为紧张的市场增加供应。 国际锡业协会（International Tin Association，简称ITA）的市场情报分析师Freddie Mitchell在一封电子邮 件中说："我们目前看到印尼的产量正在复苏……我们预计这种复苏将持续到2025年及以后。" 据ITA称，被没收的冶炼厂占该国精炼能力的一半。 ITA数据显示，由于查封，印尼2024年精炼锡产量下滑30.7%，至49,900吨，创20多年最低产量水平。 在当局加强对该行业的审查之前，该国的精炼锡年产量在2019年和2021-2023年至少达到7.2 ...

五一假期后部分下游加工企业逐步复工，低价补库需求有所释放，但高价成交仍显清淡。美国关税调整 虽支撑消费边际缓和，但实际出口订单环比仍呈走弱态势，全球半导体行业经过去年高速增长之后，今 年增速有所放缓，终端消费疲软直接拖累锡需求。下游反馈终端客户维持刚需下单，整体订单情况一 般，后续消费力度还需观测下游接单和生产情况。 对于后市，金源期货评论表示，缅甸缴费办理采矿证的企业不多，且中缅边境审查较为严格，佤邦复产 进度不及市场预期，大幅缓解了原料供应快速恢复的担忧，市场情绪宣泄后回归理性。不过隔夜市场风 险偏好降温，拖累锡价再度下行。不过目前价格已跌至下游心理价位附近，锡价跌势有望放缓，下方关 注整数支撑。 目前云南等供应端主产地整体锡矿供应仍然趋紧，若原料短期无法补充，后续部分冶炼企业或将停产检 修来应对原料短缺问题。但近期市场对有关佤邦地区复产交费传言反应激烈，据SMM了解，目前缴费 办理采矿证的企业不多，持观望态度较多，多数头部矿贸商都并未缴纳管理费。且目前中缅边境审查较 为严格，多数大型器械和相关采矿人员入关手续较为繁杂，SMM认为当前佤邦地区复产进度不及市场 预期。复产进度仍有待进一步观察。 隔夜沪锡重心 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited maintains a stable credit rating of AA+ due to its leading position in the tin industry, significant resource reserves, and strong financial performance, despite facing challenges from industry cyclicality and declining resource grades [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Tin Company is recognized as a global leader in the tin industry, with substantial resource reserves and production capacity [1][7]. - The company has a strong market share, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% for tin products in 2024 [12][13]. Financial Performance - The total assets of the company were reported at 366.43 billion yuan as of March 2025, with total liabilities at 148.03 billion yuan [3][26]. - The company achieved a net profit of 15.70 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.51% compared to the previous year [23][26]. - Operating revenue for 2024 was 519.98 billion yuan, with a slight decrease attributed to a reduction in trade business scale [23][26]. Industry Context - The tin market is experiencing price fluctuations, with prices rising from 230,000 yuan/ton to 280,000 yuan/ton, influenced by tightening global supply and recovering demand [6][7]. - The overall economic environment in China is expected to support continued growth, although external uncertainties may pose risks [5][6]. Resource Management - The company has significant mining resources concentrated in the Honghe and Wenshan regions, with proven reserves of tin, copper, zinc, and indium [10][11]. - Resource reserves for tin have decreased from 66.70 million tons in 2022 to 62.62 million tons in 2024, indicating a need for ongoing exploration and resource management [11][12]. Risk Factors - The company faces risks from the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals industry, which can impact profitability due to price volatility [6][7]. - Declining grades of resources and lower processing fees are also potential challenges that could affect the company's financial performance [1][12]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency expects Yunnan Tin Company to maintain its credit rating over the next 12 to 18 months, provided it can enhance its capital structure and sustain profitability [1][2]. - The company is focused on strategic initiatives to enhance resource exploration and modernize mining operations, aiming to solidify its position as a key supplier of non-ferrous metals [9][10].

威领股份5月21日公告称，控股孙公司长领矿业已在京东资产交易平台购得嘉宇矿业74.3%股权，竞拍价格共计2.2 亿元。该笔交易以现金方式结算，资金来源于长领矿业的注册资本金。 对处于亏损沼泽的威领股份来说，这不是一笔小投资。2024年末，威领股份的归母净资产较前一年几乎减半，锐 减至3.65亿元。如今，营运资金也较为紧张。截至2025年一季度末，威领股份的流动资产为4.25亿元，其中货币资 金仅为4531.79万元；流动负债已达7.63亿元，其中短期借款为2.55亿元，一年内到期的非流动负债为1.11亿元。 威领股份曾经名为鞍重股份，主要生产并销售矿山机械设备等产品，成功转型锂电材料行业已经4年有余，目前主 要从事锂云母选矿及碳酸锂生产。威领股份进入的时点大约是上一轮锂周期低谷，不久后就经历了一轮火爆上 涨。 2021年11月，威领股份出资设立了以碳酸锂生产、加工、销售为主要业务的领能锂业，10个月后年产1万吨碳酸锂 生产线投产。2022年1月，收购领辉科技70%股权，业务拓展至锂云母选矿，具备年选矿产能120万吨。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 胡雅文 北京报道 在锂行业连续亏 ...