面对此环境，主要企业策略清晰：华友钴业与格林美依托印尼低成本MHP项目，强化在新能源材料供 应链中的优势；青山控股通过产业链整合稳住基本盘，并探索电池材料转型；金川集团则依托技术升级 与合作，在资源受限背景下维持竞争力。整体上，行业正从规模扩张进入以成本控制和产业链整合为核 心的新阶段。 今日镍价走势预测 随着宏观面情绪转暖，本交易日镍价修复反弹，料今日镍价或小涨。 （以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ）长江有色金属网 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 镍期货市场：美联储降息与流动性释放，隔夜伦镍收涨0.77%；伦镍最新收盘报14365美元/吨，上涨110 美元/吨，涨幅为0.77%，成交8074手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍高位窄幅震荡，尾盘小幅收涨，沪镍主力 合约2601最新收报113300元/吨，涨幅为0.51%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月17伦镍库存报253998吨，较前一日库存量增加690吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开为主；主力月2601合约开盘报113600元/吨涨870，较前一日结算 价格下跌230元，9:10分沪镍主力合约最新收报113220元/吨，上涨490元；沪期镍开盘高开 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, such as gold with rising rate - cut expectations, silver in a downward - oscillating trend, and copper supported by high risk sentiment [2]. - It also presents detailed fundamental data and market news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions. Summary of Each Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rate - cut expectations are rising. The prices of domestic and international gold contracts show different trends, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is in an oscillating decline. There are changes in the prices and trading volumes of domestic and international silver contracts, and the ETF holdings have decreased [2][6]. - **Platinum**: It continues to oscillate. The prices of different platinum contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. - **Palladium**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The prices of different palladium contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. Base Metals - **Copper**: High risk sentiment supports the price. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and inventories of copper contracts, and some copper - related companies have production and export news [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the supply - side disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of zinc contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [13][14]. - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The prices and trading volumes of lead contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [16][17]. - **Tin**: There are new supply disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of tin contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity moves up. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradictions remain unchanged. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel contracts, and there are relevant news about the industry [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the development of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event. The prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of carbonate lithium contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [35][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the development of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [38][39][41]. - **Polysilicon**: It is a core target for anti - involution, and the idea of buying at low price is recommended. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [39][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of iron ore contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is affected by the factory - restart sentiment and has wide - range oscillation, while manganese silicon has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [50][51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They have wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of coke and coking coal contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [54][55]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level. There is relevant news about the industry [56][59]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by cost. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][65]. - **PTA**: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PTA contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - **MEG**: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [67][68][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of synthetic rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [71][72][73]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price rebounds, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of asphalt contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [74][82][83]. - **LLDPE**: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LLDPE contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [84][85]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PP contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [86][87][88]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of caustic soda contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [90][91][92]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pulp contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [94][96][98]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of glass contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [99][100]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of methanol contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [102][103][105]. - **Urea**: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of urea contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [107][108][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of styrene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soda ash contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [114]. - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LPG and propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - **Propylene**: There is an expected increase in supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low level. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PVC contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [124][125][126]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak trend. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. Agricultural Products - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of container shipping index contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [129][138][139]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They have medium - term pressure, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin when the price is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of short - fiber and bottle - chip contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [140][141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of offset printing paper contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [143][144][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pure benzene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [148][149]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range trading temporarily. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow a weak oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean meal and soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - **Soybean**: The market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of corn contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [164][165][167]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of sugar contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [168][169][171]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of cotton contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [173][174][176]. - **Egg**: The spot market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of egg contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [177]. - **Live Pig**: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of live - pig contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [179][180][181]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of peanut contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [183][184][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the prominent pressure on the nickel fundamentals, the nickel price broke through the platform and bottomed at around 115,000 yuan/ton. With the stabilization of the ferronickel price and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, the nickel price shifted to a volatile pattern. The report tends to believe that the short - term price has bottomed, but it is necessary to focus on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. [11] - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, or go long at low prices after the ferronickel price stabilizes and rebounds. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In November, the nickel ore price remained stable overall. For pyrometallurgical ore, although the smelter's cost - price inversion intensified and the demand for ore weakened significantly, the bargaining power of ore merchants was strong, and the prices of pyrometallurgical ore in Indonesia and the Philippines did not decline significantly. For hydrometallurgical ore, the market was still relatively dull, and the price mainly remained stable. [11] - **Ferronickel**: In November, the terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect led to a continuous decline in the ferronickel price. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, the stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, the industry inventory was high, and many stainless - steel enterprises had production - cut plans at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. The ferronickel production profit is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel, so it is expected that the ferronickel price will gradually stabilize in the future. [11] - **Intermediate products**: In November, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. On the supply side, the sulfur price remained strong, and the sellers were more willing to hold prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a relatively cold overall market transaction. [11] - **Refined nickel**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. In the spot market, the spot price of refined nickel was stronger than the futures price, and the premium was generally strong. [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trend**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. [17] - **Nickel spot premium**: The spot premium was stable and slightly strong. As of December 4, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the near - month contract, the same as last month, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 5,000 yuan/ton, with the average price up 2,100 yuan/ton from the same period last month. [21] - **Secondary nickel price**: The decline of the ferronickel price slowed down. As of December 5, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 884 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous week. The nickel sulfate price declined slightly. As of December 5, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,460 - 27,600 yuan/ton, with the average price down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. [24] 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable. On December 5, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 51.43 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.59 US dollars/wet ton from the previous week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/ton, the same as the previous week. [33] 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel output was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with October. [48] - **Demand**: The report shows the data of domestic stainless - steel monthly output, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Import and export**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, but does not specifically summarize the import - export situation. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons. [57] - **Cost**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel production cost by raw material and production profit margin by process, but does not specifically summarize the cost situation. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the data of China's nickel sulfate output and net import volume, but does not specifically summarize the supply situation. - **Demand**: The report shows the data of ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor output, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Cost and price**: The report shows the data of battery - grade nickel sulfate production cost, price, and the production profit margin of main raw materials, but does not specifically summarize the cost - price situation. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the global supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecast from 2019 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded the demand, with the supply - demand surpluses being 82,900 tons, 53,200 tons, and 126,600 tons respectively. [74]

（来源：财富情报局） 作者：墨舟 编辑：金玉 铜价正发出强劲的看涨信号。 瑞银在其最新矿业研究报告中指出，在全球铜矿生产扰动频繁与新能源需求持续爆发的双重推动下，铜价有望在2026年启动新一轮上涨周期。 该报告进一步指出，2026年铜在供应端面临多重约束，包括铜矿品位下降、新项目投产周期长（超10年）、环保政策趋严等，2026年或出现实质性短缺。 需求端则受益于新能源汽车（单车用铜量为燃油车的3–4倍）、风电、光伏及电网升级的推动，预计到2030年新能源领域将贡献全球铜需求的20%以上。 瑞银预计2026–2027年铜价将保持强势，且长期需维持高位以激励新矿投资。 另外，报告提醒对镍、钴等供应过剩品种保持谨慎，并注意中国在房地产、基建等领域的政策动向可能对短期价格带来的影响。 总体而言，2026年矿业投资应遵循"因品施策"原则：以铜为核心配置，铁矿石需精选个股，镍、钴等则宜等待供需结构改善后的机会，并持续跟踪中国需 求变化与全球能源转型进程。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 除了铜，报告也分析指出，2026年全球矿业将呈现"冰火两重天"局面，不同品种间的供需格局分化显著。瑞银针对主要大宗商品进行了逐一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and supply disruption concerns have led to an upward drive in the non - ferrous metals market. Opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: CSPT's agreement on joint production cuts will cause copper prices to fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: Codelco is raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers. CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of ore - copper by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 2, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and copper inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. There are continuous supply disruptions in copper mines, and CSPT's production cut plan strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although demand is in the off - season, the market expects a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices will continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: Alumina spot prices remained stable in most regions on December 2. The willingness of futures - cash merchants to sell warehouse receipts is strong. On December 2, the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction needs to be observed. The domestic market is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak, so the alumina price is under pressure [11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macroeconomic sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium remained unchanged. Aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased. An Australian rescue plan aims to prevent a smelter from closing, and new Indonesian aluminum plants are in operation [12]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the dollar index is under pressure. The domestic economy is weakly stable. The supply side has high domestic operating capacity and overseas power shortages. The demand side is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: With strong cost support, the market will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts decreased. In October, the import volume of scrap aluminum increased year - on - year [14][15][16]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand is marginally improving, and inventory is rising. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: With the export window open, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 2, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake [18]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is rising. In the short term, zinc ore supply has loosened, and smelters' profitability is good. The export window has opened, but demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained unchanged. The price of lead ingots increased, and the premium was stable. Lead ingot inventory decreased, and some smelters were under maintenance [19]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and price difference are stable, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. Production has decreased due to smelter maintenance, and demand from battery enterprises is improving. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: With the easing of the supply side in Indonesia, nickel prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME and Shanghai nickel inventories decreased. An Indonesian company plans to focus on three HPAL projects next year. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices are slightly weaker, and inventory has accumulated significantly. Nickel prices will fluctuate [23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: With the stable price of nickel - iron, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On December 2, the spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [24]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. After the peak season, production and demand have decreased, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: With continuous supply concerns, tin prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's mining area is slow, and Indonesian exports are restricted. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Index - On December 2, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed slight declines, with changes of - 0.01%, - 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively [151]. 3.2.2 Special Index No relevant content provided. 3.2.3 Sector Index - On December 2, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2512.54, with a daily decline of - 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.84%, a 1 - month increase of + 1.86%, and a year - to - date increase of + 8.85% [153].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated December 2, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Gold:降息预期回升, indicating that the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver:加速冲刺，再创新高, meaning it is accelerating and hitting new highs [2]. - Copper:紧张预期，价格上涨, suggesting a tight supply expectation leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc:供应减产，震荡偏强, showing supply cuts and a tendency to be strong with fluctuations [2]. - Lead:库存减少，支撑价格, indicating that inventory reduction supports the price [2]. - Tin:供应再出扰动, meaning there are further disruptions in supply [2]. - Aluminum:偏强运行, suggesting a relatively strong performance [2]. - Alumina:震荡磨底, indicating a process of bottom - grinding with fluctuations [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:跟随电解铝, meaning it follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum:震荡上行, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [2]. - Palladium:横盘整理, indicating a sideways consolidation [2]. - Nickel:基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行, suggesting that fundamentals limit the upside potential and it fluctuates at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel:库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力, meaning high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downside [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 959.64 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 964.72 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 13282 with a daily increase of 4.46%, and the night - session closing price was 13766.00 with a night - session increase of 5.08%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. Copper - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280 with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89380 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend strength is 1 [9]. Zinc - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22590 with a 0.74% increase. The trend strength is 1 [12]. Lead - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17075 with a - 0.09% change. The trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 306,580 with a 0.50% increase. The trend strength is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1 [22]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The trend strength is 1, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [28]. - **Palladium**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a sideways consolidation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel industry, once thriving, is now struggling due to miscalculations in capacity expansion, technology adoption, and environmental considerations, leading to a significant decline in nickel prices and a reliance on imports despite having the largest nickel reserves globally [1][3][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Indonesia possesses 60% of the world's nickel reserves and previously experienced a boom in nickel exports, exceeding $30 billion annually [3]. - The country implemented a strategy to ban raw ore exports and mandated foreign investment in local smelting facilities, initially attracting major players like China's Tsingshan Holding and LG Energy Solution from South Korea [3][6]. Group 2: Misjudgments in Strategy - The first misjudgment was the unchecked expansion of production capacity, leading to a shift from a nickel shortage to a severe oversupply, with refined nickel capacity projected to exceed 2.2 million tons by 2024 [6]. - The second misjudgment involved falling behind in technology, as Indonesia focused on high-energy, high-emission pyrometallurgical processes while global battery technology shifted towards lithium iron phosphate batteries, which now dominate the market [6][10]. - The third misjudgment was neglecting environmental trends, as Indonesia's pyrometallurgical processes have carbon emissions three times higher than hydrometallurgical methods, leading to its nickel products being labeled as "dirty" under the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [6][10]. Group 3: Comparative Strategies - In contrast to Indonesia, China has adopted a different approach by upgrading technology, establishing strategic reserves of primary nickel, reducing dependency on nickel by 40%, and focusing on high-end breakthroughs in the industry [8]. Group 4: Lessons for Resource-Rich Countries - Indonesia's experience highlights common misconceptions among resource-rich nations, such as equating resource advantages with industrial advantages and blindly copying foreign models without considering local conditions [10][12]. - The importance of a robust industrial ecosystem and technological autonomy is emphasized over mere resource control, as environmental standards increasingly become trade barriers [12][14]. - The ultimate competitive edge lies not in mineral wealth but in technological innovation, manufacturing processes, and market insights, which will determine the sustainability of the industry as resources deplete [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Group 1: Company Overview - Company is a leading player in the global nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain from trading to production and sales [1] - The company has established long-term trade and supply agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia, ensuring stable resource supply [1] - The company has developed a comprehensive nickel product service system, including nickel sulfate and cobalt, enhancing its market position [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has created a unique competitive advantage by granting equity to Indonesian partners, ensuring resource stability and sustainable development [1] - It has built an independent overseas industrial park with essential infrastructure, allowing for operational autonomy and reduced transaction costs [1] - The company collaborates with high-quality suppliers to create a win-win cooperation platform, strengthening its supply chain [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The Democratic Republic of Congo's new cobalt export quota system is expected to systematically raise cobalt prices, benefiting the company [2] - The tightening of export quotas in Congo is anticipated to drive further increases in cobalt prices, positively impacting the company's performance [2] - The company is projected to achieve significant earnings growth, with estimated EPS of 1.74 and 2.49 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a 48% CAGR from 2024 to 2026 [2]