Group 1 - Nickel stocks collectively opened higher, with Liqin Resources (02245) rising by 8.42% to HKD 26, Xinjiang Xin Mining (03833) increasing by 6.67% to HKD 3.04, and Zhongwei New Materials (02579) up by 3.71% to HKD 35.26 [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month nickel price surged over 9% to reach USD 18,545 per ton, marking the largest intraday increase in over three years. Nickel prices have risen more than 20% in the past two weeks [2] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) reported a projected nickel ore production of approximately 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a 34% decrease from the 379 million tons target set for 2025. The association anticipates that local smelters will require about 340 to 350 million tons of nickel ore in 2026 [2] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities believes that if the actual approval quotas align with the plans, a shortage of nickel ore will occur, leading to significant valuation recovery potential for both upstream and downstream sectors of the industry [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.94% at 26,458.95 points and a total turnover of HKD 2,761.34 million [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 1.14% to 9,138.75 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.49% to 5,738.52 points [1] - Zheshang International noted that the fundamentals of the Hong Kong market remain weak, with a decline in the funding environment, while Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" rating on Chinese A-shares and H-shares, citing attractive risk-reward ratios [1] Blue Chip Performance - WuXi Biologics (02269) led blue-chip stocks, rising 5.92% to HKD 36.12, contributing 11.87 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Innovent Biologics (01801) up 5.38% and WuXi AppTec (02359) up 4.91%, while Alibaba (09988) fell 3.25%, dragging the index down by 65.17 points [2] Sector Highlights Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector continued its upward trend, with notable gains from Rongchang Biologics (09995) up 12.93% and Tigermed (03347) up 8.88% [3] - The National Medical Products Administration reported that 76 innovative drugs are expected to be approved by 2025, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024, with a total transaction value exceeding USD 130 billion [4] Nickel Sector - Nickel stocks showed strong performance, with Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) rising 12.28% and Zhongwei New Materials (02579) up 10% [4] - Nickel prices surged over 20% in the past two weeks, driven by supply constraints from Indonesia, which plans to reduce nickel mining quotas by 2026 [4] Paper Sector - Paper stocks saw significant gains, with Nine Dragons Paper (02689) up 8.97% and Lee & Man Paper (02314) up 6.92% [5] - Several paper companies announced price increases, indicating a reduction in production pressure and a more favorable market environment [5] Coal Sector - Coal stocks generally rose, with Shougang Resources (00639) up 5.98% and China Qinfa (00866) up 5.92% [6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange saw a surge in coal futures, and analysts expect improvements in supply-demand dynamics for the coal industry [6] Optical Communication Sector - Optical communication stocks rebounded, with Yangtze Optical Fibre (06869) rising 6.75% [6] - The sector was buoyed by strong performances in the U.S. market, particularly from Lumentum and Coherent [7] Notable Stocks - Yadea Group (01585) announced a profit increase, leading to a 4.63% rise in its stock price [8] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748) was active, rising 3.65% amid news of potential export restrictions on rare earth materials to Japan [9] - Jitu Express (01519) reached a new high, with a 3.39% increase, reporting significant growth in package volume [10] - GF Securities (01776) faced pressure, dropping 4.09% after announcing a share placement and convertible bond issuance to raise funds for international business development [11]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.94% at 26,458.95 points and a total trading volume of HKD 2,761.34 million [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 1.14% to 9,138.75 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.49% to 5,738.52 points [1] - Zheshang International noted that the market fundamentals remain weak, with a decline in the funding environment, while policy focus is on new productivity and expanding domestic demand [1] Blue Chip Performance - WuXi Biologics (02269) led blue-chip stocks, rising 5.92% to HKD 36.12, contributing 11.87 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Innovent Biologics (01801) up 5.38% and WuXi AppTec (02359) up 4.91%, while Alibaba (09988) fell 3.25%, dragging the index down by 65.17 points [2] Sector Highlights Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector continued its upward trend, with notable gains from Rongchang Biologics (09995) up 12.93% and Tigermed (03347) up 8.88% [3] - The National Medical Products Administration reported that 76 innovative drugs are expected to be approved by 2025, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the sector [4] Nickel Sector - Nickel stocks showed strong performance, with Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) rising 12.28% and Zhongwei New Materials (02579) up 10% [4] - Nickel prices surged over 20% in the past two weeks, driven by supply constraints from Indonesia, which plans to reduce nickel mining quotas by 2026 [4] Paper Sector - The paper sector saw significant gains, with Nine Dragons Paper (02689) up 8.97% and Lee & Man Paper (02314) up 6.92% [5] - Several paper companies announced price increases, indicating a reduction in production pressure and a more favorable pricing environment [5] Coal Sector - Coal stocks generally rose, with Shougang Resources (00639) up 5.98% and China Qinfa (00866) up 5.92% [6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange saw a surge in coking coal and coke futures, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [6] Optical Communication Sector - Optical communication stocks rebounded, with Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) up 6.75% [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology and increased demand for high-performance components [7] Notable Stocks - Yadea Group Holdings (01585) announced a profit increase forecast, leading to a 4.63% rise in stock price [8] - JinkoSolar (06680) remained active with a 3.65% increase, driven by potential export restrictions on rare earth materials to Japan [9] - Jitu Express (01519) reached a new high, with a 3.39% increase, reporting significant growth in package volume [10] - GF Securities (01776) faced pressure, declining 4.09% after announcing a share placement and convertible bond issuance to raise funds for international business development [11]

Group 1 - Nickel stocks collectively opened higher, with Liqin Resources (02245) rising by 8.42% to HKD 26, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) increasing by 6.67% to HKD 3.04, and Zhongwei New Materials (02579) up by 3.71% to HKD 35.26 [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month nickel price surged over 9% on Tuesday, reaching a high of USD 18,545 per ton, marking the largest intraday increase in over three years. Nickel prices have accumulated a rise of over 20% in the past two weeks [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the nickel ore production target in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is approximately 250 million tons, a decrease of 34% from the 379 million tons target in the 2025 RKAB. The association expects local smelters' demand for nickel ore to reach about 340 million to 350 million tons in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities believes that if the actual approval quotas align with the plans, there will be a shortage of nickel ore, leading to significant valuation recovery potential for both upstream and downstream sectors of the industry [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Copper - Copper prices have risen significantly, with LME copper closing at a historical high [3][12] - The US ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for ten consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction in new orders and employment [3][12] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,775 tons to 142,550 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 3,204 tons to 456,657 tons [3][12] - Demand is slowing due to high copper prices, but there remains a rigid purchasing demand in the market [3][12] - Short-term funding is a major driver of copper prices, but it also introduces uncertainty [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 3.16% to $17,290 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.71% to 135,200 CNY per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory increased by 72 tons to 255,352 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 758 tons to 38,424 tons [4][13] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to 250 million tons from 379 million tons [4][14] - Domestic social inventory of primary nickel saw a slight increase, while LME and SHFE inventories experienced a decrease [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,773 CNY per ton, down 0.72% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum prices increased by 2.57% to 24,165 CNY per ton, with a rise in open interest [6][15] - The current market is facing inventory pressure due to increased shipments from Xinjiang and reduced outflows from major sales areas [6][15] - The expectation of a prolonged inventory accumulation period exists due to the later-than-usual Spring Festival [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,730 CNY per ton, down 1.24% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract rising by 2.31% to 58,645 CNY per ton [7][16] - The industrial silicon production focus is shifting north, but demand is decreasing, leading to a potential rebound in prices [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 7.74% to 129,980 CNY per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [8][17] - Weekly production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with lithium spodumene and lithium mica production also rising [8][17] - A projected decrease in lithium carbonate production is expected in January 2026, alongside a decline in demand for various battery materials [8][18] - Recent geopolitical disturbances and domestic stimulus policies have contributed to the surge in lithium prices [8][18]

Group 1 - The company currently holds a 51% stake in Fujian Tonghai Nickel Industry Technology Co., Ltd [1] - The company indicated that any future investments or equity purchases will be conducted in strict accordance with legal and regulatory requirements [1] - The company will fulfill its obligations for review and disclosure in a timely manner regarding any related matters [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently experiencing a complex interplay between supply constraints due to tightening policies in Indonesia and the reality of high inventories and weak demand, leading to a volatile trading environment [3][4]. Supply Side - The market is focused on Indonesia's policy developments, with discussions about significant reductions in nickel ore quotas and taxation on associated resources providing long-term support for prices [4]. - However, the immediate reality shows that Indonesia's existing production capacity is still being utilized, and global visible inventories, particularly LME stocks, are at multi-year highs, indicating significant oversupply pressure [4]. Demand Side - Demand has not provided effective support, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which is affected by weak performance in the real estate and manufacturing industries, leading steel mills to procure raw materials on a need basis [5]. - The anticipated growth in the new energy sector, particularly for high-nickel ternary batteries, has not materialized as expected, with the dominance of lithium iron phosphate battery technology limiting the demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Industry Chain and Future Market Outlook - The industry chain is experiencing differentiated conditions: upstream sectors are supported by policy expectations, while midstream smelters face challenges from high costs and low product prices [6]. - Downstream processing enterprises are hesitant to accept high prices, leading to a market characterized by "upstream heat and downstream cold" [6]. - The nickel price is expected to maintain a volatile trading range in the short term, with upward pressure from high inventories and weak fundamentals, while downward support comes from distant policy expectations and the breakeven point of high-cost production [6].

镍期货市场：美指震荡下跌以美元计价大宗商品受青睐，隔夜伦镍收涨0.13%；伦镍最新收盘报15660 美元/吨，上涨20美元/吨，涨幅为0.13%，成交16136手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震荡，尾盘大幅收 跌，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报125100元/吨，跌幅为1.47%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月24伦镍库存报255696吨，较前一日库存量增加1092吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报127500元/吨，较前一日结算价格上涨 540元，9:20分沪镍主力合约最新收报124010元/吨，跌2950元；沪期镍开盘高开低走，盘面维持弱势震 荡；年末市场呈现典型的跨年特征，港股假期休市使得交投阶段性清淡，北向资金暂停也削弱了短期流 动性。机构调仓与获利了结意愿增强，推动部分资金从前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块流向估值相对较 低、防御属性较强的蓝筹品种。与此同时，多家上市公司披露减持计划，引发市场对部分热门标的估值 压力的担忧，进一步强化了资金的避险心态，抑制市场投机需求。镍自身过剩及高库存压制震荡下跌。 供需端及产业链现状 当前镍市运行的核心逻辑仍围绕供需失衡与高库存压力展开。印 ...