随着江苏公布2025年经济数据，全国31个省份2025年经济"成绩单"全部出炉。在GDP总量方面，广东、江苏、山东跻 身"10万亿俱乐部"，浙江、四川、河南、湖北、福建、上海、湖南紧随其后，排在全国第四名至第十名，生产总值均 超5万亿元。 | | 省份 | 2025年GDP总值 | 2025年GDP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | 増速 | | 16 | 广东 | 14.58万亿 | 3.9% | | 2 5 | 江苏 | 142351.5 | 5.3% | | 3 | 山东 | 103197 | 5.5% | | 4 | 浙江 | 94545 | 5.5% | | 5 | 四川 | 67665.34 | 5.5% | | 6 | 河南 | 66632.79 | 5.6% | | 7 | 湖北 | 62660.9 | 5.5% | | 8 | 福建 | 60199.45 | 5.0% | | 9 | 上海 | 56708.71 | 5.4% | | 10 | 湖南 | 55308.65 | 4.8% | | 11 | 安徽 | 52989 | 5.5% | | ...

南京财经大学经济学院副院长崔向阳教授认为，经济大省正成为科技创新和产业创新的策源地，通过产业转移、 技术转移、园区共建，带动中西部地区和东北快速发展，从而使得区域经济发展更加协调。 今年以来，全国31个省份陆续公布2025年经济数据，其中18个省份的地区生产总值（GDP）实际增速超过5.0%。 山东2025年GDP突破10万亿元，成为全国第三个、北方首个"10万亿省份"。北京GDP超过5万亿元，是继上海之后 第二个达到这一规模的省份。数据背后，经济大省挑大梁作用进一步凸显，"万亿城市俱乐部"持续扩容，不仅重 塑区域经济发展格局，更展现了中国经济在压力下韧性生长的内生动力。 创新助推区域经济扩容提质 中国经济一直有"南强北弱"的说法，广东、江苏长期领跑，率先迈入10万亿俱乐部，上海成为首个突破5万亿的城 市，让南北差距进一步拉大。此次山东、北京成功跃升，为北方经济发展注入了一针强心剂，逐步构建起南北协 调的多点支撑发展格局。 在省级区域实现跃升的同时，城市层面的突破同样令人瞩目。大连成为东北首个破万亿的城市，以民营经济著称 的温州晋级万亿城市，深圳市南山区超万亿元的经济总量甚至超过一些欧洲国家，为"增强区域发展 ...

京津冀国家技术创新中心雄安中心完成团队组建并迈入实质化运行阶段，燕郊创新基地一期工程建设完 成。去年三地协同创新扎实推进，创新平台有序建设。截至2025年底，京津中关村科技城累计引入经营 主体超2000家，雄安新区中关村科技园已汇聚260余家科技型企业。三地共同资助220余项基础研究合作 项目。 京津冀智能网联新能源汽车科技生态港落地项目达42个；举办京津产业握手链接洽谈活动，京津两市有 关企业和单位签约合作项目（事项）44个，协议投资额超百亿元……三地产业协作继续深化，带动工业 生产提质增效。数据显示，2025年三地规模以上工业增加值分别比上年增长6.5%、4.2%和7.9%；其 中，北京、天津高技术制造业增加值分别增长7.5%和5.3%，北京、河北工业战略性新兴产业增加值分 别增长15.5%和11.0%；高技术产品产量快速增长，北京新能源汽车产量成倍增长。 1月29日，市统计局发布去年京津冀协同发展成绩单，数据显示去年京津冀三地地区生产总值分别比上 年增长5.4%、4.8%和5.6%，发展质量稳步提升，协同发展动能加速集聚。 投资规模稳步扩大，2025年三地固定资产投资（不含农户）分别比上年增长5.5%、 ...

从我国规模以上工业企业利润与货物出口等数据反映出的结构性变化看，我国工业已经进入"质变"关键 期。在这个阶段，企业竞争力开始从"供应链效率(成本)"转向"科技创新与系统韧性"，铁路船舶、半导 体设备、电子等行业的高利润增长，表明竞争力正从低成本制造，转向复杂系统集成、尖端技术研发和 产业链自主可控。 国家统计局近日发布的数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982.0亿元，比上年 增长0.6%，时隔三年重回正增长。其中，12月份规模以上工业企业利润由11月份下降13.1%转为增长 5.3%，回升18.4个百分点。 这一数据显示我国工业经济实现了趋势性企稳与转折。这一转变不仅是宏观周期企稳的信号，也是中国 工业结构深度调整、新动能加速发展的集中体现。尤其是数据背后呈现出明显的结构性分化，新旧动能 转换加速，发展质效正在发生根本性改变。 数据反映出我国新动能已成主要增长引擎。数据显示，规模以上装备制造业利润较上年增长7.7%，拉 动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点，是对规模以上工业企业利润增长拉动作用最强的板 块。规模以上装备制造业利润占全部工业企业利润的比重达39.8%，较上年提高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant industrial growth in Yunnan province, with industrial added value surpassing 760 billion yuan and an average annual growth rate of 5.9% since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Yunnan is focusing on green transformation and exploring the integration of ecological value with economic benefits, aiming to enhance traditional industries and develop strategic emerging industries [1] - The industrial added value in Yunnan is projected to increase from 563 billion yuan in 2020 to 762.9 billion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 4.8% [1] Group 2 - The new industrial momentum in Yunnan is significantly strengthening, with the total output value of strategic emerging industries increasing by 3 percentage points compared to 2020 [2] - The annual growth rates for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing added value are 25.8% and 28.3%, respectively [2] - By 2025, the added value of the electronics industry, high-tech manufacturing, and equipment manufacturing is expected to grow by 22.7%, 17.6%, and 17.7% respectively, indicating robust growth [2] Group 3 - Yunnan's clean energy advantages are being rapidly transformed into industrial strengths, with the province's green electricity installed capacity and proportion ranking among the top in the country [3] - The carbon dioxide emissions per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated in Yunnan are the lowest in the country at only 0.13 kilograms [3] - By 2025, hydropower and solar power generation are expected to increase by 5.6% and 33.7%, respectively, with clean electricity accounting for 87.6% of the total [3] - The "new three" industries, represented by green aluminum, silicon photovoltaic, and new energy batteries, are rapidly emerging, with expected increases in added value of 75.9%, 12.1%, and 3.2% respectively by 2025 [3] - The green aluminum industry chain is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2023 and reach 180 billion yuan by 2025 [3] - During the 15th Five-Year Plan, Yunnan aims to establish itself as a major clean energy base, strategic non-ferrous metal industry base, and a world-class tourism destination while enhancing its green aluminum, silicon photovoltaic, and phosphate chemical industries [3]

Core Insights - In 2025, various regions and sectors are implementing more proactive macro policies to accelerate new industrialization, leading to a stabilization and improvement in the industrial economy. The profits of industrial enterprises have increased, reversing a three-year decline, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.6% compared to the previous year, with manufacturing profits growing by 5.0%, a significant rebound of 8.9 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a profit increase of 9.4%, while the mining sector experienced a decline of 26.2% [1] - In December, profits of industrial enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase, marking an 18.4 percentage point recovery [1] Group 2: Equipment Manufacturing Sector - In 2025, profits in the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [2] - Profits from the equipment manufacturing sector accounted for 39.8% of total industrial profits, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Seven out of eight major categories in the equipment manufacturing sector reported profit growth, with the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electronics industries experiencing double-digit growth rates of 31.2% and 19.5% respectively [2] Group 3: High-Tech Manufacturing Sector - In 2025, profits in the high-tech manufacturing sector rose by 13.3%, surpassing the overall industrial profit growth by 12.7 percentage points [3] - The smart consumer electronics sector drove significant profit growth, with smart consumer device manufacturing profits increasing by 48.0%, and specific industries like smart drones and smart vehicle equipment seeing profits rise by 102.0% and 88.8% respectively [3] - The semiconductor industry experienced substantial profit increases, with integrated circuit manufacturing and semiconductor device manufacturing profits growing by 172.6% and 128.0% respectively [3] Group 4: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries are showing continuous improvement, with profits significantly above the industry average. In the chemical sector, profits from biochemical pesticides and cultural information chemicals grew by 20.7% and 15.2%, respectively, exceeding the average growth in the chemical industry by 28.0 and 22.5 percentage points [4] - In the chemical fiber and power sectors, profits from bio-based chemical fiber manufacturing and biomass power generation increased by 88.6% and 47.9%, respectively, surpassing the average growth in their respective categories by 93.1 and 34.0 percentage points [4] - Profits for small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises, turned positive, with growth rates of 1.4% and 4.2%, compared to declines of 1.9% and 1.7% in 2024 [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, reversing a three-year decline trend [1] Group 1: Profit Performance - The profit of state-controlled enterprises was 20,561 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The profit of joint-stock enterprises was 55,408.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% [1] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw profits rise to 17,447.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% [1] - Private enterprises maintained profits at 22,810.6 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The mining industry experienced a profit decline of 26.2%, totaling 8,345.1 billion yuan [1] - The manufacturing sector's profits grew by 5.0% to 56,915.7 billion yuan [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw profits increase by 9.4%, reaching 8,721.2 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Monthly Trends - In December 2025, profits for industrial enterprises rebounded by 5.3% from a 13.1% decline in November, marking an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector's profits increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3] - The share of equipment manufacturing profits in total industrial profits rose to 39.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous year [3] Group 4: High-tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing profits surged by 13.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 12.7 percentage points [4] - The smart consumer electronics sector saw profits grow by 48.0%, with specific industries like smart drones and smart vehicle equipment experiencing profit increases of 102.0% and 88.8%, respectively [4] - The semiconductor industry also showed significant growth, with profits in integrated circuit manufacturing increasing by 172.6% [4] Group 5: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries are showing improved profitability, with sectors like biochemical pesticides and cultural information chemicals seeing profits rise by 20.7% and 15.2%, respectively [5] - In the chemical fiber and power sectors, profits from bio-based chemical fiber manufacturing and biomass power generation increased by 88.6% and 47.9%, respectively [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as foreign-invested enterprises, reported profit growth of 1.4% and 4.2%, respectively, reversing previous declines [5] Group 6: Overall Economic Outlook - The overall profit growth of industrial enterprises indicates a significant support from new industrial dynamics, with a focus on technological and industrial innovation [6] - Challenges remain due to external environmental changes and the need for continued structural optimization and new productivity cultivation [6]

据万得数据（下同），2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，较前值回落 0.5 个点。 2022-2025 年营业收入年度同比分别为 5.9%、1.1%、2.1%、1.1%。 [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 同比转正，新旧分化：2025 年工业企业利润数据点评 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，略低于 2024 年的 2.1%，持平于 2023 年，营收同比连续 3 年 在 1%-3%的低位区间内徘徊。边际变化看，12 月单月营收同比下降 3.2%，连续 3 个月同比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the accelerated integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation in China by 2025, showcasing significant growth in strategic emerging industries and improved efficiency in technology transfer [1][2] Group 2 - Strategic emerging industries are experiencing robust growth, with high-tech industry sales revenue projected to increase by 13.9% year-on-year in 2025. Specifically, high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services are expected to grow by 10.1% and 16.6%, respectively. Notable sectors include lithium-ion battery manufacturing, service robots, industrial robots, and biopharmaceuticals, with sales revenue growth rates of 25.1%, 60.7%, 17.4%, and 7.7% respectively [1] - The conversion of scientific and technological achievements is continuously improving, with sales revenue in the scientific research and technical service industry expected to rise by 20.4% year-on-year in 2025. Knowledge-intensive industries are also projected to see a 10.7% increase in sales revenue, indicating a stronger application of technological achievements. The national technology contract transaction amount is expected to grow by 19.1% [1] - The integration of digital technology with the real economy is deepening, with core digital economy industries projected to see a 9.4% increase in sales revenue in 2025. Related sectors such as digital product manufacturing and digital technology application are expected to grow by 9.4% and 13.8%, respectively. Additionally, enterprise procurement of digital technology is anticipated to rise by 9.6%, with manufacturing sector procurement increasing by 10.4% [2] - Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation and upgrading, particularly in automation. The procurement of automation equipment in traditional sectors such as petrochemicals, steelmaking, and ironmaking is expected to increase by 17.3%, 11.7%, and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The data reflects solid achievements in China's technological self-reliance and the cultivation of new productive forces, indicating a strong and sustainable internal momentum for high-quality development [2]

Core Insights - Chengdu's economy is projected to achieve a GDP of 24,763.6 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable and improving economic environment despite external challenges [5][6] Industrial Growth - The industrial output value in Chengdu is expected to grow by 7.0% in 2025, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.9% and the production of new energy vehicles soaring by 181.0% [6][7] - The transformation of old factories into innovation incubators and logistics hubs is enhancing productivity, with industrial investment rising by 19.7% and high-tech manufacturing investment by 23.4% [7] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in Chengdu are anticipated to reach 11,434.1 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.5%, with significant increases in categories like communication equipment (70.6%) and new energy vehicles (45.8%) [8] - The shift in consumer behavior from purchasing goods to seeking experiences is becoming a new driving force for consumption, with service consumption gaining momentum [8] Logistics and Supply Chain - Chengdu's logistics market is showing resilience, with a low vacancy rate for quality logistics facilities and a net absorption of 310,000 square meters in 2025 [9] - The city is evolving from a "channel city" to a "hub economy," becoming a key node in the global supply chain, supported by its international airports and logistics parks [9] Agricultural Stability - Chengdu's grain production is projected to reach 2.371 million tons in 2025, with a slight increase of 1.1%, ensuring food supply stability amidst economic growth [10] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2025, with significant increases in both primary (20.2%) and secondary (20.0%) industry investments, highlighting strong private sector engagement [12] - The favorable business environment and clear industrial direction are encouraging private enterprises to actively participate in the city's industrial upgrade [12] Strategic Development - Chengdu's growth is characterized by a systemic leap through the integration of development momentum, industrial systems, consumption capabilities, and openness, transitioning from traditional resource-driven growth to high-value chain development [13]