Group 1 - The article discusses the critical point of capitalism, indicating that the "buying time" strategy is nearing its limits due to the disconnection between debt repayment capacity and economic growth potential [1] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion since the 2008 financial crisis, with ongoing debates about the debt ceiling becoming a political tool, suggesting that the "myth of American economic invincibility" is at risk of collapse [2] - The trend of de-globalization has been ongoing since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a shift in governance that reflects a desperate response to systemic failures of neoliberalism [5][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the transformation of the "tax state" into a "debt state," where the burden of public spending is shifted to lower-income groups, leading to increased wealth inequality [7] - The ongoing rise in public debt and the inability of Western democracies to maintain legitimacy is illustrated by the rise of right-wing populism, particularly in countries that have ceded some sovereignty to the EU [10] - The EU's tightening policies have stripped member states of their economic sovereignty, revealing a governance vacuum in the face of cross-border capital flows [9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Wind All A Index Timing System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to distinguish the overall market environment by analyzing the distance between long-term and short-term moving averages of the Wind All A Index[1][10][16] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the long-term moving average (120-day) and short-term moving average (20-day) of the Wind All A Index[1][10] - Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $$ where the short-term MA is the 20-day moving average and the long-term MA is the 120-day moving average[1][10] - Monitor the distance value to determine market conditions. If the distance exceeds 3%, it signals a change from a volatile to an upward trend[1][10][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying market trends and providing signals for adjusting positions[1][10][16] Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model recommends industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives and current market trends[2][4][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze the performance and trends of various industry sectors[2][4][11] - Identify sectors with potential for reversal or growth, such as distressed reversal sectors, innovative drugs in Hong Kong stocks, and photovoltaic sectors benefiting from anti-involution[2][4][11] - Use the TWO BETA model to recommend technology sectors, focusing on military and communication industries[2][4][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides targeted industry recommendations based on current market conditions and trends[2][4][11] Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model manages stock positions based on valuation indicators and short-term market trends[3][12] - **Model Construction Process**: - Evaluate the overall PE and PB ratios of the Wind All A Index[3][12] - Determine the stock position based on the valuation levels and short-term market trends. For example, with the Wind All A Index at a medium PE level (70th percentile) and a low PB level (30th percentile), the recommended position is 60%[3][12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model helps in managing stock positions effectively by considering valuation levels and market trends[3][12] Model Backtest Results Wind All A Index Timing System - **Distance between Moving Averages**: 2.52%[1][10][16] Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: Distressed reversal sectors, innovative drugs in Hong Kong stocks, photovoltaic sectors, technology sectors (military and communication), A-share banks, and gold stocks[2][4][11] Position Management Model - **Recommended Position**: 60%[3][12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act," which significantly increases U.S. military spending to $1 trillion, raising questions about its effectiveness in revitalizing the military [1][3][5] - The act was passed with a narrow margin in both the Senate and House, reflecting significant controversy and debate surrounding its implications for military funding and strategy [3][5][6] - The act allocates $156.2 billion specifically for new military projects, with a total military budget approaching $960 billion for the upcoming fiscal year [5][6][7] Group 2 - The funding breakdown includes $70 billion for improving military personnel quality of life, $29.1 billion for shipbuilding, and $24 billion for missile defense systems, among other allocations [7][8] - The military's current procurement strategy is under scrutiny, as the number of weapons being purchased is decreasing despite rising budgets, indicating potential inefficiencies [6][22] - The article highlights a shift in military strategy under the Trump administration, moving away from previous policies and focusing on more pragmatic military projects [19][21][22] Group 3 - The article discusses China's naval advancements, particularly the recent dual aircraft carrier exercises, marking a significant development in naval capabilities and strategy [23][24][27] - The performance of China's aircraft carriers, particularly in terms of sortie rates, is compared favorably to U.S. naval operations, indicating a shift in naval power dynamics [29][30][34] - The article emphasizes the importance of these developments in the context of U.S.-China military competition, suggesting that the era of U.S. naval dominance is being challenged [41][42]

总量双周报：开启新征程 | | | | 分析师 | 林阳 电话：021-65465572 邮箱：linyang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480524080001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 | | 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | 分析师 | 陈刚 电话：010-66554028 邮箱：chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521080001 | | 分析师 | 刘嘉玮 电话：010-66554043 邮箱：liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519050001 | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话：010-66554013 邮箱：tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521070003 | 东兴证券总量双周报 总量双周 ...

在行为金融学中，日历效应作为市场非理性波动的重要体现，一直备受关注。其中，"五穷六绝七翻 身"的市场谚语起源于20世纪80至90年代的香港股市，用以形象描述股票市场在年中阶段由弱转强的 运行节奏。今年来看，6月指数区间震荡后向上突破，进入七月，关于A股是否会延续反弹的讨论如 期而至——结构性行情，还是全面启动？七月行情背后到底有没有"胜率逻辑"？又该如何从中找到 真正具备性价比的投资方向？ "七翻身"真有戏？数据告诉你答案 回顾过去15年（2010–2024年）全A指数表现，"七翻身"确实是有迹可循的特征。数据显示，2010–2024 年全A指数6月平均收益率为-1.1%，而7月则反弹至0.9%，形成典型的"探底—反弹"节奏，也支撑了"七 翻身"的市场俗语。当然，"七翻身"并非投资的金科玉律，过去15年间，7月全A指数胜率仅为60%。比 如2015年在杠杆破裂引发流动性危机的背景下，7月跌幅超过15%。 从行业维度来看，七月行情具有明显结构性特征。胜率靠前的多为军工、新能源等成长板块，以及钢 铁、化工、有色等资源品行业，这些板块多受益于政策预期、产业周期或下游补库等因素。总体来看， 七月具有胜率高、节奏明确、 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rise towards 3500 points but subsequently retreated, indicating increased sector rotation opportunities [1] - The overall market trend remains upward despite short-term fluctuations, with technical indicators showing signs of recovery [1] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - After several days of reduced trading volume, the market is expected to stabilize next week following the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal [2] - Investors are advised to maintain a calm mindset and exercise patience during periods of market consolidation, focusing on sectors with strong performance and solid earnings [2] Sector Performance - The banking sector has played a crucial role in stabilizing the market index, with financial stocks showing notable activity [2] - Other sectors, including energy, metals, and previously underperforming sectors like steel and coal, are experiencing technical rebounds, indicating a strengthening sector effect [3] Investment Strategy - The overall market trend is expected to continue upward, supported by policy and capital [3] - Investors should focus on identifying potential opportunities within sectors like steel and photovoltaics, while monitoring company announcements and industry changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's armed forces confirmed an attack on a Russian company involved in the production of drone warhead components, indicating ongoing military actions targeting critical defense infrastructure [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The attack was carried out on the "Applied Chemistry Research Institute" located in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow Oblast, which is currently engaged in the production of thermobaric warhead components for attack drones [1]

市场消息：德国准备订购价值250亿欧元的坦克，以增强北约部队的兵力。 ...

Group 1 - The German government is in discussions to purchase Patriot air defense systems from the United States [1] - The intention is to provide these systems to Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese equity market, highlighting a shift in global perception of Chinese assets and the potential for A-shares to catch up with the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the coming months to a year [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recent months have shown a recovery in the Chinese market, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding quickly after initial shocks from tariff disputes [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 27.64% from September 24, 2024, to May 31, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index has risen by 19.53% during the same period, indicating a stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four key sectors are highlighted for future investment: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries [4][5]. - AI is seen as a core direction for global technological development, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and related hardware [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow, driven by advancements in research and development within Chinese companies [7]. - The consumer sector is viewed as having no clear distinction between "new" and "old" consumption, with opportunities arising from cultural exports as China continues to grow as a super economy [4]. - The power battery sector remains promising due to its vast market potential across various applications, including energy storage and robotics [5]. Group 3: Healthcare Sector Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical market is anticipated to be a long-term trend, with China's pharmaceutical capabilities aligning with global standards [7]. - Investment opportunities are focused on companies in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and high-value consumables, with a preference for firms with strong clinical and sales capabilities [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The future performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to domestic demand, which is influenced by residents' income expectations [9]. - Recent consumer subsidies in sectors like automotive and home appliances have created opportunities, and sustained policy support could further drive growth [10]. Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to play a crucial role in overcoming current economic challenges, with AI development projected to continue for decades [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in smart driving and humanoid robots, with the latter expected to see production growth in specific industries [12]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Resource Insights - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, with opportunities for Chinese brands to compete globally due to improved product performance and stability [16]. - Resource-related companies are also highlighted, as limited supply supports pricing and profitability [16]. Group 7: Financial Sector Outlook - The banking sector has shown resilience, with improved performance attributed to better-than-expected corporate conditions outside the real estate sector [18]. - As the economic outlook improves, expectations for the banking sector are also anticipated to recover [18]. Group 8: Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The white liquor industry is undergoing adjustments primarily due to inventory cycles and operational challenges, with potential for recovery as internal adjustments take place [21].