1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月23日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3300 | 3300 | O | 172 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 42 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 132 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3126 | 3119 | 7 | 174 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3159 | 3151 | 8 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3128 | 3120 | 8 | 172 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | -12 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3180 | 0 | -102 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the provided text. 3. Summary by Categories Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 791, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 846.6 and an import profit of 5.39; PB powder price is 794, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 845.6 and an import profit of -21.56; Mac powder price is 787, up 2 from the previous day and up 16 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 859.6 and an import profit of 26.92; Jinbuba powder price is 747, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 839.8 and an import profit of 23.69; Mixed powder price is 735, down 3 from the previous day and up 15 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 873.6 and an import profit of -3.48; Super special powder price is 677, unchanged from the previous day and up 12 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 897.5 and an import profit of -16.20; Carajás powder price is 874, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 807.2 and an import profit of -41.32 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 829, down 1 from the previous day and up 14 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 836.3 and an import profit of -10.34; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 764, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 769, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 877, up 2 from the previous day and up 22 for the week; 61% Indian powder price is 736, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week; Karara concentrate price is 877, up 2 from the previous day and up 22 for the week; Roy Hill powder price is 781, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 859.6 and an import profit of 20.89; KUMBA powder price is 853, down 1 from the previous day and up 16 for the week; 57% Indian powder price is 612, unchanged from the previous day and up 12 for the week; Atlas powder price is 730, down 3 from the previous day and up 15 for the week; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 976, unchanged from the previous day and up 7 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 863.0 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 797.5, down 0.5 from the previous day and up 20.5 for the week, with a monthly spread of -37.0; i2605 contract price is 781.5, up 1.5 from the previous day and up 28.5 for the week, with a monthly spread of 16.0; i2609 contract price is 760.5, up 2.5 from the previous day and up 29.0 for the week, with a monthly spread of 21.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 104.70, down 0.18 from the previous day and up 2.72 for the week, with a monthly spread of -4.01; FE05 contract price is 102.75, down 0.11 from the previous day and up 3.03 for the week, with a monthly spread of 1.95; FE09 contract price is 100.69, down 0.10 from the previous day and up 3.13 for the week, with a monthly spread of 2.06 [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and the winter storage has not arrived yet. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, threaded rod production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Threaded rod apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant drop in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the sharp rebound in coal and coke prices has increased the cost support for the market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel products briefly fell below the oscillation range and then quickly rebounded. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the threaded rod and hot - rolled coil main contracts, as well as their spot prices, all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous week. For example, the threaded rod main contract closing price was 3126 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spread**: There were changes in the basis and spreads of various steel products. For example, the threaded rod main basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2] - **Production**: The production of threaded rods by national building material steel mills increased by 1.62% to 181.68 million tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.44% to 291.91 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with the social inventory of the five major varieties dropping by 3.74% to 906.47 million tons [2] - **Apparent demand**: The overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 0.53% to 835.28 million tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival restocking demand will also arrive later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management have been fully digested by the market [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 781.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.78% from the previous week. The prices of various iron ore powders at ports also changed to different extents [4][5] - **Basis and spread**: There were fluctuations in the basis and spreads of iron ore futures, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread increasing by 6.0 yuan/dry ton compared to the previous week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 3.41% to 1703.9 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 8.77% to 747.6 million tons [5] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.53% to 15512.63 million tons, while the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 1.52% to 1180.48 million tons [5] 3.3 Industry News - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining of mineral resources. As of now, inspections have been completed in Guangxi, Hubei, and other places [7] - As of the week of December 21st, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 million tons to 3464.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 million tons to 2814.7 million tons [7] - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 137.9 million tons to 2790.2 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 76.7 million tons to 2646.7 million tons [7] - On the 22nd, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered their coke procurement prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Hebei market also lowered their coke procurement prices [8] - An alloy factory in Inner Mongolia's Chayouqianqi has successively ignited the first and second silicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces and plans to ignite the third before the Spring Festival in 2026 and the fourth after the Spring Festival [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the weekly data of iron ore arrivals and shipments in the 51st week of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The domestic arrivals at 47 ports decreased to 27.902 million tons, with a week - on - week drop of 1.379 million tons, showing a decline from the high level. The arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores decreased, while non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores reached a high for the year [2] - Overseas ore shipments decreased again, with the global total at 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week drop of 1.2805 million tons, also declining from the high. The decrease mainly came from major miners, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores were at a high for the year [2] - According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports are expected to be stable, and overseas ore supply is relatively active [2] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Brief Review - Domestic 47 - port arrivals decreased, with Australian and Brazilian ores dropping and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores increasing. Overseas shipments decreased due to major miners, but non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores remained at a high [2] 2. Ore Arrival and Shipment Data - Arrival data: Northern six - port arrivals were 12.564 million tons, down 102,100 tons week - on - week (-7.52%); 45 - port arrivals were 26.467 million tons, down 76,700 tons (-2.82%); 47 - port arrivals were 27.902 million tons, down 137,900 tons (-4.71%). Among them, Australian ore at 47 ports decreased by 93,800 tons, Brazilian ore by 125,200 tons, and other ores increased by 81,100 tons [3] - Shipment data: Global shipments were 34.645 million tons, down 1.2805 million tons (-3.56%). Australian shipments decreased by 102,010 tons, Brazilian by 48,790 tons, and other regions increased by 22,760 tons. Among major miners, VALE's shipments decreased by 67,610 tons, RIO by 10,490 tons, BHP by 5,630 tons, and FMG by 66,940 tons [3] 3. Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [4][6][8][10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Report date: December 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 price: 797.5, down 0.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE05 price: 781.5, up 1.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE09 price: 760.5, up 2.5 from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 spread: 16.0, down 2.0 from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 spread: 21.0, down 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 spread: -37.0, up 3.0 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - PB powder (60.8%) price: 791, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder price: 793, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder price: 787, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder (60.5%) price: 748, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill powder price: 781, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Super Special powder price: 677, down 1 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) price: 831, up 1 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) price: 837, up 1 from yesterday [2] - FMG price: 738, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder price: 874, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Karara concentrate price: 877, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Ukrainian concentrate price: 875, up 2 from yesterday [2] - IOC6 price: 765, up 1 from yesterday [2] - KUMBA price: 871, up 1 from yesterday [2] - SP10 price: 732, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Minmetals standard powder price: 807, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Optimal delivery product: Carajás powder [2] Group 4: Spot Price Spreads and Import Profits - Carajás powder - PB powder spread: 79, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 45, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 126, up 1 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 47, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Newman lump - Newman powder spread: 72, up 3 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill lump - Roy Hill powder spread: 14, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder - Super Special powder spread: 110, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Super Special powder spread: 118, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB lump - PB powder spread: 77, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder import profit: -29, up 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder import profit: 50, up 18 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder import profit: -3, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder import profit: 42, up 13 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder import profit: -3, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump import profit: 88, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF import profit: 10, up 8 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder import profit: 41, up 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG import profit: 9, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 5: Platts Index and USD Spreads - Platts Iron Ore 62% price: 108.2, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 65% price: 121.2, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 58% price: 94.0, down 0.4 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE01 spread: 0.9, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE05 spread: 3.2, down 0.4 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE09 spread: 6.0, down 0.5 from yesterday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides a weekly review and forecast of the black industry chain, covering various products such as steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and ferroalloys. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and market factors of each product [12][13][16]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to consolidate at low levels due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and a lack of macro - level drivers [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - level driving force is weakening, but restocking demand may support prices. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released, and prices may rebound periodically. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon manganese is expected to adjust narrowly in the short term due to accumulated supply - demand contradictions and high inventory pressure. Silicon iron is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term as supply contracts and inventory decreases [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of most products showed an upward trend last week. For example, the RB2605 contract of rebar rose 1.93% to 3119 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil rose 1.14% to 3269 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also increased, with rebar rising 0.92% to 3300 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil rising 0.93% to 3270 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The supply - demand of steel products is weak. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased. The demand is not improving in the short term and may decline further with the cold weather. The price rebound is mainly due to the raw material price [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Steel prices will consolidate at low levels [12]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume was at a medium - high level. Domestic demand decreased rapidly, and the inventory of steel mills was low. The port inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policy increments, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved last week, and the futures prices rebounded. The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remained high. The demand for raw materials was suppressed due to the decrease in pig iron output [14]. - **Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound periodically but are likely to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [14]. - **Attention Points**: Production rhythm changes in the coking coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [14]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: The macro - economic situation is complex. The supply of silicon manganese and silicon iron decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory of silicon manganese reached a new high, while the inventory of silicon iron decreased [16]. - **Viewpoint**: Silicon manganese will adjust narrowly, and silicon iron will be slightly stronger in the short term [16]. - **Attention Points**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [16]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 181.68 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.90 tons), the apparent demand was 208.64 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons), and the total inventory was 452.54 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 26.96 tons) [19][27]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 291.91 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 16.80 tons), the apparent demand was 298.28 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.69 tons), and the total inventory was 390.72 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons) [32][37]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total port inventory of imported ore was 15512.63 tons (a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons), and the daily average port dredging volume was 313.45 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 5.74 tons) [52]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 110.25 tons), and the daily consumption was 280.56 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 2.71 tons) [62]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory was 900.45 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 3.35 tons) [90]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory was 2727.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons) [97]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 34 yuan/dry ton degree, the silicon manganese price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan), and the silicon iron price in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 130 yuan) [130]. - **Production**: Last week, the silicon manganese output of 187 independent enterprises was 188230 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons), and the silicon iron output of 136 independent enterprises was 99800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6500 tons) [136][139]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for silicon manganese from five major steel products was 112402 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 385 tons), and the demand for silicon iron was 18132 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84 tons) [141]. - **Inventory**: On December 19, the silicon manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises was 384500 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2500 tons), and the silicon iron inventory of 60 independent enterprises was 65160 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 12680 tons) [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure due to the pattern of "weak supply and demand", with the price center further moving down. In 2026, the pattern of "decreasing supply and weak demand" for steel is expected to continue, but the supply - demand gap may narrow marginally under policy guidance. The iron ore market is expected to enter a new stage of "continuous supply expansion and differentiated demand structure" [1][78][80]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side structural optimization continued to exert force in 2025, accelerating supply contraction. In 2026, the policy direction of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the structure" remains unchanged for steel supply [1][78][80]. - The demand side shows significant differentiation and weakness. Real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down significantly, and although steel exports provided some resilience, they were difficult to fully offset the decline in domestic demand [1][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Weak Supply and Demand, Oscillating Downward - In 2025, black - series commodities continued the trend of oversupply and weak oscillation, with coking coal falling 5.94% and coke dropping 12.67%, iron ore's decline narrowing to 2.12%, and rebar falling 5.51%. The overall trend can be divided into four stages: oscillating upward from early January to late February, moving down from early March to late May, slowly rebounding from early June to early August, and oscillating downward from early August onwards [3][4]. 3.2 Steel Supply: Environmental Restrictions, Continuous Decline 3.2.1 Global Supply: Structurally Differentiated Economic Recovery, Production Expected to Continue Contracting - In the first 10 months of 2025, global crude steel production decreased year - on - year. China's crude steel production declined, while India's increased significantly, and the United States, Turkey and other countries also showed an upward trend. In 2026, global crude steel production is expected to continue a slight downward trend [10]. - In 2026, China's crude steel supply is expected to remain within 1 billion tons. India is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and the production of countries like Turkey is expected to continue growing, but it is difficult to fully make up for the reduction in China's production [1][13]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply: Continuous Reduction due to Environmental Restrictions - Since 2021, China has implemented policies to control steel production capacity. In 2025, relevant policies further tightened the control of new production capacity. From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 817.41 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.56%. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will be in the range of 970 - 980 million tons, a decrease of about 2.5% - 3.5% compared with 2024 [16]. - In 2026, under the pressure of macro - policies and weak demand, China's crude steel production is expected to continue to contract [20]. 3.3 Steel Demand: Real Estate Continues to Weaken, Infrastructure Investment Growth Slows Down 3.3.1 Limited Support from Real Estate Policies, Difficult to Change the Weak Reality - In 2025, China introduced a series of real estate support policies, but the real estate market was still in a deep - adjustment period. From January to October, real estate development investment decreased by 14.77%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.87%, and the completion area decreased by 16.99%. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to be under pressure [25][30][32]. 3.3.2 Steel Exports Reach a New High in Total, but Structural Contradictions are Prominent - In 2025, China's steel exports maintained a high level in quantity, but the average export price continued to decline, and the product structure was continuously optimized. The exports to "Belt and Road" countries showed strong growth. Indirect exports of electromechanical products, automobiles (especially new - energy vehicles) were relatively optimistic, while home - appliance exports showed a downward trend [34][36][40]. 3.3.3 Investment: Manufacturing Remains Stable - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment was under pressure, but manufacturing investment remained resilient. In 2026, the manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, and in 2026, infrastructure construction investment will continue to follow the active fiscal policy orientation [42][46][53]. 3.4 Iron Ore: Loose Supply, Weakening Demand 3.4.1 Supply: Loose Overseas Ore Pattern, Limited Increment of Domestic Ore - In 2025, the production of the four major iron - ore mines increased slightly in the first three quarters. It is estimated that the annual production in 2025 will increase by more than 4% compared with 2024. The Simandou project started shipping, which will have a profound impact on the market pattern. In 2026, Vale and Rio Tinto plan to expand production capacity [57][61][62]. - In 2025, China's iron - ore production decreased year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume increased by 1.4%, and the port inventory reached a high level. In 2026, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and the import dependence will remain high [69][71][72]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Domestic Demand, Weakening Export Support - In 2025, domestic demand for iron ore was weak, and the direct export growth of iron ore slowed down. In 2026, China's iron - ore demand is expected to continue the pattern of structural differentiation, with the overall pig - iron output slightly falling and steel exports being the core support [75]. - In 2026, the iron - ore market will enter a new stage of long - term supply relaxation. The price is expected to be under long - term downward pressure, and the market trading logic will shift from "quantity increase" to the game of "ore quality" and "production cost" [76]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure, with supply contracting and demand weakening. The iron - ore market shifted from "tight balance" to "loose" [78][79]. - In 2026, the rebar price is expected to show an "M" - shaped oscillation, with the price center in the range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton. The iron - ore import price center is expected to be maintained in the range of 90 - 100 US dollars/ton [80][81].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价仍易承压，相 对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹维持震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.28%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政 ...