Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the re-emergence of the "deposit migration" phenomenon, with a decrease of approximately 770 billion yuan in resident deposits and a corresponding increase of 770 billion yuan in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a "seesaw" relationship [1][5][33] - The M1 growth rate decline is attributed to the decrease in resident deposits, which is directly related to the contraction in resident credit demand, particularly a reduction of 335.6 billion yuan in short-term loans [1][8][33] - In October, corporate loans remained primarily focused on short-term financing, with a year-on-year growth rate of short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 10.0%, while medium- and long-term loans saw a slight decline [2][13] Group 2 - The growth rate of social financing (社融) further declined, primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing by 560.2 billion yuan, which was a key factor in the slowdown of social financing growth [2][18] - The outlook for social financing stability is optimistic with the implementation of two fiscal policies, including the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits expected in November and December [2][20] - In October, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans [3][26]

Market Performance - The Blockchain 50 Index (399286) closed at 3982.08 points, down 1.49%, with a trading volume of 35.197 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.74% [1] - Among the index constituents, 4 stocks rose while 45 stocks fell, with Yihualu leading the gainers at 3.15% and Handexin leading the decliners at 3.57% [1] Key Constituents - The top ten constituents of the Blockchain 50 Index include: - Dongfang Caifu (8.42% weight) at 24.54 yuan, down 2.35% [1] - Keda Xunfei (8.07% weight) at 49.98 yuan, down 1.75% [1] - Midea Group (7.16% weight) at 79.23 yuan, down 0.46% [1] - Ping An Bank (6.85% weight) at 11.75 yuan, up 0.43% [1] - SF Holding (6.06% weight) at 40.29 yuan, down 0.71% [1] - TCL Technology (5.95% weight) at 4.36 yuan, down 1.36% [1] - Tonghuashun (5.64% weight) at 331.50 yuan, down 2.39% [1] - Guangfa Securities (4.83% weight) at 22.85 yuan, down 2.64% [1] - Runhe Software (3.58% weight) at 57.00 yuan, down 1.40% [1] - Giant Network (3.25% weight) at 35.85 yuan, down 2.56% [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Blockchain 50 Index constituents totaled 2.988 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.268 billion yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Ping An Bank with a main fund net inflow of 12.8 million yuan [3] - Yihualu with a main fund net inflow of 41.29 million yuan [3] - Midea Group with a main fund net inflow of 10.00 million yuan [3]

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固 从本周市场来看： 首先，10 月信贷社融增速收敛，企业信贷增速放缓、居民融资 意愿承压。 其次，10 月份经济运行基本平稳，稳中有进态势持续。 最后，政策将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资 条件相对宽松。 总体来看，本周沪指在 4000 点附近震荡整理。10 月信贷社融 增速放缓，企业信贷增长减弱，居民融资意愿仍偏低。10 月经济运 行总体平稳，延续稳中有进态势，但也面临外部环境不确定、内部 结构调整等挑战，经济平稳运行存在压力。不过随着扩内需、稳就 业、稳预期等政策持续发力并落地见效，经济有望实现质的有效提 升与量的合理增长。货币政策方面，在全年 5%左右增速目标预计可 达的背景下，货币政策短期加码的紧迫性降低，重点转向既有政策 的落实与跨周期工具储备。货币宽松方向不变，降准、降息仍可期， 节奏上更侧重"相机抉择"。后续需关注 12 月上中旬政治局会议和 中央经济工作会议的政策定调，以及美联储动向与"十五五"规划 衔接对政策的影响。从技术面来看，当前沪指在 4000 点附近震荡 整理，资金分歧有所加大， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report explores investment opportunities in the Hong Kong bond market under the expansion of the "Southbound Connect." It analyzes the market conditions of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds and Dim Sum bonds, and points out potential investment opportunities based on factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and credit risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Introduction - Launched on September 24, 2021, it allows domestic investors to invest in bonds traded in the Hong Kong bond market through a connected mechanism [9]. - Initially, it only supported spot bond trading and later gradually introduced repo trading. In 2025, measures were announced to expand trading currencies and extend trading hours [10]. - Regulatory authorities have defined the current participants and trading counterparties. The scope of participants is expected to expand to include non-bank institutions such as securities firms, insurance companies, and asset management companies [11]. II. "Southbound Connect" Investment Target Situation Hong Kong Bond Market Situation - The Hong Kong bond market consists of three main segments: Hong Kong dollar, offshore RMB, and G3 currency markets. As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amounts of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds were 195.5 billion, 173.2 billion, and 565.6 billion US dollars respectively, with G3 currency bonds dominating the market [24]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total size of the Hong Kong bond market showed a significant upward trend, reaching HK$2.83 trillion in 2024. The Exchange Fund and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government are the cornerstones of the market, and overseas issuers and local statutory bodies have also contributed to its growth [26]. Hong Kong Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bond Market Status - Affected by factors such as the US dollar interest rate hike, rising overseas financing costs, and changes in the credit environment, the issuance volume of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong has declined significantly since 2022, with negative net financing in the past three years [32]. - As of October 30, 2025, the outstanding amount of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 361.5 billion US dollars, with 1,180 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance and energy, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly over 3 years [37][40]. Dim Sum Bond Market Status - The issuance volume and net financing of Dim Sum bonds have increased significantly since 2022, reflecting the promotion of RMB internationalization and the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" [43]. - As of October 29, 2025, the outstanding amount of Dim Sum bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 1.5666 trillion RMB, with 1,266 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance, real estate, and consumption, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly between 1 - 3 years [48][50]. III. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is US Treasury bonds. In the first three quarters of 2025, US Treasury bond yields fluctuated and declined in the third quarter. It is expected to remain volatile at a low level in the future [55]. - Investment-grade Chinese dollar-denominated bonds have declined with US Treasury bonds this year, and the spread has narrowed to a low level since 2024. High-yield bonds have fluctuated, and the spread is at a high percentile [57]. - Due to the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the spread of overseas Chinese dollar-denominated urban investment bonds has significantly compressed since mid-2024 [59]. - The spread of real estate Chinese dollar-denominated bonds has shown significant differentiation. The spread of investment-grade bonds has continued to compress, while that of non-investment-grade bonds has fluctuated at a high level [63]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar has depreciated against the RMB in 2025, and the narrowing of the discount has reduced the exchange rate hedging cost, increasing the allocation value of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [66]. - From a credit perspective, the number of defaults or extensions of local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has decreased, and the investment strategy can focus on bonds of central and state-owned enterprises with large onshore-offshore spreads [67]. IV. Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Dim Sum bonds is offshore RMB sovereign bonds. This year, Dim Sum bonds have outperformed onshore bonds, and the spread has narrowed to about 50bp [69]. - On the supply side, due to the financing cost advantage and policy support, the issuance of Dim Sum bonds has increased in recent years, and the product structure is expected to become more diverse [71]. - On the demand side, the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" has broadened cross-border investment channels, and the strong demand of domestic institutions for overseas investment is beneficial to the secondary market performance of Dim Sum bonds. Some Dim Sum bonds still have relatively high spreads compared to onshore bonds, offering good value [71].

Group 1 - Foreign capital in A-shares decreased by 166 million shares in Q3, totaling 1.161 billion shares, but the total market value increased by 12.4% to 2.73 trillion yuan [4][5] - The electronic, chemical, and automotive sectors saw significant increases in foreign holdings, with increases of 19.6 million shares, 5.04 million shares, and 3.62 million shares respectively [8][10] - Major foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs increased their holdings by over 15%, with Morgan Stanley's holdings increasing by 33.1% [22][24] Group 2 - The electronic industry had the highest increase in foreign holdings, with a market value increase of 161.35 billion yuan, ranking first among all sectors [10][12] - Traditional sectors like banking, construction decoration, and non-bank financials faced significant reductions in foreign holdings, with declines of 67.68 million shares, 22.54 million shares, and 18.75 million shares respectively [12][21] - QFII/RQFII increased their holdings in the real estate sector by 361.1% compared to the previous quarter [15][18] Group 3 - The overall trend shows foreign capital is shifting from traditional consumer and financial sectors to technology and manufacturing sectors, reflecting confidence in China's economic transformation [25][32] - Foreign capital's interest in sectors like new energy and semiconductors continues to grow, while traditional blue-chip stocks are experiencing phase-out reductions [29][33] - The top foreign institutions are increasingly favoring high-end manufacturing and energy technology stocks, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [22][25]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a 10-year high at 4030.40 points, leading to discussions on whether investors should switch sectors as the year-end approaches [1] Market Trends - The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with strong sectors like semiconductors, AI, and chips showing lackluster performance recently [1] - Historical patterns indicate that value stocks such as banks, non-bank financials, and food and beverage sectors have a win rate exceeding 70% during the year-end period (November-December) [3] - The banking sector saw a 9.36% increase in December 2024, while technology sectors like computers and electronics gained a 15% increase in January 2023 [3] Sector Performance - The Consumer sector, particularly the liquor segment, has shown strong performance despite pressure from fundamentals after the third-quarter reports [1] - The China Securities Dividend Index tends to perform well before year-end, indicating a potential shift in market focus [1] Investment Strategies - Two key investment tracks are highlighted: 1. **Cyclical Recovery in Undervalued Industries**: Traditional industries are seeing improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with sectors like white goods, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles being identified as having global competitive advantages [6] 2. **Defensive High-Dividend Strategies**: High-dividend assets are viewed as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios, particularly in uncertain market conditions [10] Fund Performance - The China Securities Major Consumer Index has nearly doubled in size since 2023, with the Huatai-PineBridge China Securities Major Consumer ETF leading with a scale exceeding 20 billion [7] - The demand for long-term dividend investments remains strong, driven by the ongoing asset shortage in the banking sector [11] Index and Fund Recommendations - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index and the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index are recommended for investors seeking stable growth and risk diversification [12][13]

| 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | 2230.74 | 32.72 | 1.49 | | 电子 | 3652.23 | 21.26 | 0.59 | | 有色金属 | 1211.41 | 14.99 | 1.25 | | 基础化工 | 1008.91 | 10.52 | 1.05 | | 公用事业 | 529.10 | 4.66 | 0.89 | | 机械设备 | 1291.32 | 4.45 | 0.35 | | 通信 | 1108.26 | 3.98 | 0.36 | | 农林牧渔 | 283.23 | 3.39 | 1.21 | | 环保 | 192.02 | 1.86 | 0.98 | | 建筑装饰 | 394.42 | 1.71 | 0.44 | | 交通运输 | 414.98 | 1.41 | 0.34 | | 纺织服饰 | 81.90 | 1.40 | 1.74 | | 医药生物 | 1679.85 | 1.37 | 0.08 | | 房地产 | 349.74 | 1.08 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4029.5 points, up 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13476.52 points, up 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index at 3201.75 points, up 2.55% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 20658.28 billion yuan, an increase of 1008.79 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the A-share market for the day was 124.7 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 31.11 billion yuan and a closing net inflow of 43.73 billion yuan [2] - The CSI 300 index saw a net inflow of 75.6 billion yuan, while the ChiNext index had a net inflow of 54.5 billion yuan, and the STAR Market experienced a net outflow of 17.09 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - The power equipment sector led the net inflow of funds with 192.33 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals with 171.62 billion yuan and basic chemicals with 106.27 billion yuan [6][7] - The top five sectors with net inflows included: - Power Equipment: 192.33 billion yuan, with a rise of 2.61% - Non-ferrous Metals: 171.62 billion yuan, with a rise of 3.10% - Basic Chemicals: 106.27 billion yuan, with a rise of 1.94% - Non-bank Financials: 30.29 billion yuan, with a rise of 1.05% - Pharmaceuticals: 21.68 billion yuan, with a rise of 0.95% [7] Stock Highlights - Ningde Times saw the highest net inflow of main funds at 26.47 billion yuan [8] - Institutional buying was noted in several stocks, including Haibo Sichuang, which had a net buying amount of 38158.95 thousand yuan, and Tianqi Materials with 23784.26 thousand yuan [10][11]

Market Overview - The net inflow of large orders in the two markets reached 28.068 billion yuan, with 58 stocks seeing net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, led by Ningde Times with a net inflow of 2.666 billion yuan [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.73%, with a total of 2,109 stocks experiencing net inflows and 2,737 stocks seeing net outflows [1] Industry Performance - Among the 18 industries with net inflows, the power equipment sector had the highest net inflow of 11.278 billion yuan, with an index increase of 4.31%, followed by non-ferrous metals with a net inflow of 7.338 billion yuan and a 4.01% increase [1] - 13 industries experienced net outflows, with the public utilities sector seeing the largest outflow of 783 million yuan, followed by household appliances with a net outflow of 670 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top stocks with net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan included Ningde Times (2.666 billion yuan), Zhaoyi Innovation (2.591 billion yuan), and Tianqi Lithium (1.098 billion yuan) [2] - Stocks with net outflows included Xiangnong Chip (609 million yuan), Aters (486 million yuan), and China Metallurgical Group (362 million yuan) [4] - Stocks with net inflows saw an average increase of 9.52%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable performances from stocks like Fuxiang Pharmaceutical and Shangneng Electric, which closed at their daily limit [2] Detailed Stock Data - Top net inflow stocks: - Ningde Times: 26.66 billion yuan, 7.56% increase [2] - Zhaoyi Innovation: 25.91 billion yuan, 8.59% increase [2] - Tianqi Lithium: 10.98 billion yuan, 9.98% increase [2] - Top net outflow stocks: - Xiangnong Chip: -609 million yuan, -1.07% decrease [4] - Aters: -486 million yuan, -0.15% decrease [4] - China Metallurgical Group: -362 million yuan, 0.87% increase [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose last week, with the CSI 500 showing the largest increase of 1.12% and the ChiNext Index showing the smallest increase of 0.01% [2] - As of November 11, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2,497.40 billion yuan, an increase of 137.51 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading decreased by 7.02% compared to the previous week, totaling 455,268 [2] Industry Insights - In October, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.77% [5][6] - Sales of loaders in October were 10,673 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 27.7% [6] - The machinery equipment sector's performance lagged behind the overall market, with the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index rising only 0.22% compared to the CSI 300 Index's 0.72% increase [5][7] Valuation Metrics - As of November 11, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 31.64 times, with a valuation premium of 135.82% relative to the CSI 300 [7] Future Outlook - The demand for construction machinery is expected to continue growing due to ongoing projects in hydropower and urban renewal, which will support the sector's recovery [7] - The recent advancements in humanoid robots have garnered significant attention, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the related supply chain [7] - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the industry, with specific recommendations to increase holdings in companies such as Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [7]