坚持构建高质量发展，商业等多航道业务稳健增长，在房地产寒冬下，龙湖集团（00960）攻守兼备，走出了一条差异化的"长期主义"道路。 2025年房地产行业依旧在持续筑底，根据统计局数据，1-6月商品房销售额及销售面积均保持下滑趋势，在开发投资、新开工及竣工面积上，以高单位数及 双位数的下滑。各大房企探索新发展模式，传统的地产开发模式迎来挑战，而均衡的业务结构也被印证为更适合房企应对未来变化的新模式。 龙湖集团构建了高质量发展路线，通过多航道的经营策略实现基本面的逆流而上，在稳住基本盘业务的同时，经营性业务贡献增长动力，驱动整体业绩持续 性韧性发展。在2024年，大部分房企均录得大幅亏损，实现盈利的屈指可数，而龙湖集团为其中之一，实现股东净利润104.01亿元。 智通财经APP了解到，2025年1-6月，龙湖集团经营性收入约141.5亿元（含税），其中，运营业务收入约75亿元（含税），服务业务收入约66.5亿元（含 税），均保持不同水平的增长。在2024年，其经营性业务对收入的贡献已提升至21%，成为龙湖营业收入的重要来源与利润的主要来源。 今年上半年，龙湖商业抓住情绪风向，打造出多个流量爆款的商业案例。比如龙湖 ...

【3】华润置地6月合同销售额234.5亿元 7月15日，华润置地披露6月未经审核经营简报。简报显示，6月华润置地及其附属公司实现总合同销售 金额约234.5亿元，总合同销售建筑面积约89.7万平方米，分别同比减少26.7%及27.1%。 【4】龙湖集团6月合同销售额46.4亿元 【1】北京：进一步扩大提取住房公积金直付房租业务试点范围 7月15日，北京住房公积金管理中心发布《关于进一步扩大提取住房公积金直付房租业务试点范围的通 知》（以下简称《通知》），在前期试点基础上优化提取措施、扩大试点范围，以更精准的政策举措扩 大住房公积金保障覆盖面，更好满足缴存人租赁住房消费需求。 《通知》提出，试点住房出租机构由3家增加至4家（新增北京自如住房租赁有限公司）。其中，2家商 品房租赁住房合作单位的试点范围扩大至全市；公共租赁住房试点项目增加至3个。试点扩面面向全市 住房出租机构开放，凡有意愿参与试点工作的住房出租机构，均可与北京公积金中心沟通对接，待符合 系统对接标准和业务规范要求后，可开展试点工作。 【2】国家统计局：6月一线城市新房价格同比降幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点 7月15日，国家统计局发布2025年6月份7 ...

· 2025 年 7 月 16 日 星期三 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44,023.29 | -0.98% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,243.76 | -0.40% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 20,677.80 | 0.18% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 8,938.32 | -0.66% | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 24,060.29 | -0.42% | | 日经 225 指数 | 39,594.42 | -0.21% | | 台湾加权指数 | 22,835.94 | 0.98% | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3,505.00 | -0.42% | | 深证成指 | 10,744.56 | 0.56% | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 24,590.12 | 1.60% | | 国企指数 | 8,877.10 | 1.65% | | 红筹指数 | 4,196.91 | -0.21% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,431.29 | 2.80% | | AH 股溢价指数 ...

证券时报记者 贺觉渊 孙璐璐 江聃 近期，证券时报发起"时报经济眼：2025年上半年经济学家问卷调查"，受访者包括来自政府部门、研究机 构、知名院校等的权威经济学家。本期问卷邀请受访经济学家回顾二季度经济运行，展望下半年内外部经 济金融形势，建言下半年宏观政策施策。截至7月11日，共收集到60份答卷。在人员构成上，受访者有35人 来自金融机构，5人来自政府部门，20人属于高校、智库以及非金融企业相关人士。 调查结果显示，近六成受访者认为上半年经济发展表现平稳适度，积极评价二季度货币政策实施力度。受访者 认为下半年消费形势在政策支持下将继续企稳，楼市销售热度可能下滑；看好股市、汇市在三季度保持韧性。 受访者认为中美经贸谈判结果对中国经济影响可控，建议下半年进一步加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新政策，包 括增加总额度，将服务消费纳入补贴范围等。此外，受访者普遍认为发展人民币稳定币较为紧迫。 上半年经济发展表现平稳适度，积极评价货币政策 上半年消费形势整体好于市场预期，消费潜能不断释放。对于下半年消费形势，受访者普遍持中性偏谨慎态 度。53.4%的受访者预计消费形势将保持稳定，同时强调需要政策进一步提振；43.3%的受访 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Wuzhong Pharmaceutical Development Co., Ltd. (*ST Wuzhong*) is facing potential forced delisting due to continuous financial fraud over four years, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) proposing a fine of 10 million yuan and indicating a "zero tolerance" stance towards such violations [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Misconduct - *ST Wuzhong* has been found to have falsified financial reports from 2020 to 2023, inflating revenue by 4.95 billion yuan, 4.69 billion yuan, 4.31 billion yuan, and 3.77 billion yuan, which accounted for 26.46%, 26.39%, 21.26%, and 16.82% of the reported revenue for those years respectively [2]. - The company also inflated total profits by 14.58 million yuan, 20.27 million yuan, 19.92 million yuan, and 21.22 million yuan, representing 2.89%, 51.65%, 26.42%, and 29.81% of the total profits for the respective years [2]. - Additionally, *ST Wuzhong* failed to disclose significant non-operating fund occupation by related parties, with amounts reaching 1.27 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.69 billion yuan from 2020 to 2023, which constituted 6.88%, 74.2%, 84.6%, and 96.09% of the net assets for those years [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The CSRC plans to impose a total fine of 30.5 million yuan on *ST Wuzhong* and its responsible individuals, with the actual controller, Qian Qunshan, facing a proposed 10-year ban from the securities market due to severe misconduct [3]. - Starting July 14, *ST Wuzhong*'s stock will be subject to delisting risk warnings due to its financial fraud, which has already led to previous warnings and a lack of opinion from the auditing firm on its 2024 financial report [4]. - The company has expressed its intention to cooperate with the CSRC and will exercise its rights to defend against the proposed penalties [4].

Macro Analysis - The overall performance of the demand side is stable, but the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment has significantly declined due to high temperatures, further decline in PPI, and a complex external environment, leading to more cautious investment decisions by market entities [2] - In June, financial data showed strong performance, driven by seasonal factors and the weakening of the corporate credit demand squeeze effect as special refinancing bonds approached their end [3] - In June, exports increased by 5.8%, mainly due to resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" to the U.S., with expectations of slight pressure on exports in the second half of the year [4] Banking Sector - In June, loan issuance surged, with new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2 percentage points to 8.9% compared to the end of May, indicating a seasonal strengthening of credit activity [5] - The M2-M1 gap has narrowed, suggesting a potential for continued positive performance in bank sector stock prices [5] Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 30 core cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 4% [7] - The divergence in regional and city performance is deepening, with investment recommendations focusing on structural alpha opportunities [7] Company Research - For Chengzhi Co., Ltd., the expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 15 million and 22 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 88.24% to 91.98% [8] - Puyang Huicheng's net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 305 million yuan due to slower-than-expected growth in active magnesium oxide business [9] - Keda Manufacturing expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by overseas expansion and price increases in building materials [10] - Yiling Pharmaceutical's self-developed product has been approved for sale in Macau, indicating a positive trend in the company's performance and R&D efforts [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The real estate development investment amount has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop in this cycle [11][12] - New housing sales have also decreased, with a sales amount decline of 5.5% and a sales area decline of 3.5% in the same period, indicating a worsening trend [3][37] - The report anticipates that policy measures will continue to support the real estate market, aiming to stabilize the sector [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment - In the first half of 2025, the total real estate development investment reached 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with residential, office, and commercial property investments decreasing by 10.4%, 16.8%, and 8.4% respectively [2][21] New Construction - The cumulative new construction area in the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0% year-on-year, with residential, office, and commercial areas down by 19.6%, 21.0%, and 17.7% respectively [26][21] Completion - The total completed area in the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.8% year-on-year, with residential, office, and commercial completions showing declines of 15.5%, 0.2%, and 20.7% respectively [28][21] Sales - The total sales amount for commercial housing in the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, while the sales area decreased by 3.5% [3][37] Funding - The total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 amounted to 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with significant declines in self-raised funds, deposits, and prepayments [52][21]

城市更新如何推进？20250715 摘要 房地产在当前城市发展中的定位发生了哪些变化？ 房地产在当前城市发展中的定位已从过去的经济发动机逐渐转向稳定器。政府 政策调控更多是为了稳定房地产市场，而非推动其回到高速增长轨道上，以避 免更大的过剩。目前，新房需求逐渐萎缩，刚需主要转向二手房，这一趋势不 可逆转。同时，二手房占比提高对老旧小区改造、家具家电、装饰装修等下游 消费具有带动作用。因此，房地产行业正逐步向服务业特征转变，通过提供智 能化、智慧化养老托育等服务来提升整体价值。 未来中国城市更新将如何实施？ 城市更新强调保护优先，避免大规模拆迁重建，反映了房地产市场供需 关系的变化，房屋供应过剩导致市场压力增大，政府不再依赖房地产平 衡债务，并停止了相关专项借款。 城市更新面临高密度新房供应过大、价格下跌、传统卖地卖房模式难以 为继等挑战，且新增地方政府隐性债务被禁止，好房子项目同质化竞争 激烈，去化率不理想。 房地产在城市发展中的定位从经济发动机转为稳定器，政策调控旨在稳 定市场而非推动高速增长，新房需求萎缩，二手房占比提高带动下游消 费，行业向服务业转变。 未来城市更新将综合实施既有建筑改造、老旧小区改造、 ...

城市更新：更新什么？哪些机会？20250715 摘要 城市更新从大规模增量转向存量提质增效，强调保护历史风貌，限制超 高层建筑，总投资规模预计达千亿至万亿级别，为建筑建材行业带来机 遇与挑战，需提升技术标准与绿色环保材料应用。 基础设施建设转向高质量发展，适度超前但不过度超前，重点关注交通、 能源、水利网、算力、信息和物流等领域，城市燃气管线改造等项目预 计 2025 年完成，未来需关注投资效益比。 2024 年存量房重装市场首次超过增量房，展现较强韧性，并与历史文 化街区及消费潜力结合，预计 2025 年二手房和存量房重装比例将逐步 超过 600 亿零售市场的 50%。 工程机械行业 6 月内销量同比增长 6%，淡季不淡，小型挖掘机需求增 加，二手机出口提供缓冲，预计未来三到五年内行业进入复苏周期，稳 态需求或达 20 万台。 现代化城市体系建设强调组团式、网络化发展，轨道交通运输网络是高 效建设方式，京津冀、长三角及成渝双城经济圈可能成为轨道加密及互 联互通的新基建重点。 Q&A 上周市场对会议的预期如何？实际反应又是怎样的？ 上周四五，市场对会议的信息开始发酵，地产、建筑、建材等板块表现不错， 这表明市 ...

中金 7 月数说资产 20250715 摘要 二季度 GDP 同比下降 1.3%，连续九个季度负增长，其中建筑业拖累显 著，出口贡献下降，投资和消费贡献上升。6 月出口改善，但内需回落， 社会零售总额增速放缓至 4.8%，固定资产投资增速降至 2.8%。 A 股近期表现强劲，突破年内高点，主要受市场情绪和资金面驱动。短 期市场可能进入震荡消化期，但中期看好，公募私募仓位低，A 股估值 具吸引力，若政策催化，下半年有望突破去年高点。 建议采取两头策略：保留红利资产作为底仓，结合中报、行业周期和产 业趋势布局，相对看好 AI 算力、创新药、军工、有色金属等行业。 解决供需失衡难度大，反内卷板块上涨主要因仓位、估值和位置低。未 来上涨需关注反内卷政策落实，而非盲目乐观。 6 月金融数据表现良好，社融和信贷超预期，反映信贷需求恢复，M1 和 M2 增速回升。三季度初信贷或回落，需关注政策性金融工具和房地产 刺激政策的影响。 6 月二手房市场同比下降 2%，房价承压，提升后续政策发力可能性。 房地产企业到位资金同比跌幅与 5 月持平，销售回款拖累明显，竣工跌 幅收窄，开发商投资意愿有限。 6 月社会消费品零售总额同比增 ...