Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the ternary precursor market in China and globally, highlighting a decline in production and the competitive landscape influenced by demand for high-nickel materials and the supply chain dynamics led by major companies like CATL [2][6]. Group 1: Production Data - In the first half of 2025, China's ternary precursor production was 405,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, while global production was 463,000 tons, down 6.8% [2]. - The demand for medium-nickel high-voltage materials is primarily driven by the domestic market, significantly influenced by the supply chain of CATL [4]. Group 2: Market Competition - Domestic companies hold a global market share of 87.6%, showing a slight year-on-year decline due to increased precursor capacity in South Korea [6]. - Companies like Hunan Bangpu and Lanzhou Jintong have seen significant order increases due to the growing demand from CATL, with strong growth in the first half of the year [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus for terminal demand in the second half of the year will remain on medium-nickel high-voltage and high-nickel materials, with expectations for production and sales growth from relevant companies [7]. - New precursor capacities, particularly in South Korea, are anticipated to come online in the second half of the year, with LG Chem's announcement of mass production of non-precursor cathodes also being noteworthy for future market penetration [7].

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.29%, IH fell 0.46%, IC fell 0.3%, and IM fell 0.2% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 83,463 lots, 49,239 lots, 57,299 lots, and 134,671 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 19,160 lots, 14,582 lots, 14,672 lots, and 28,320 lots respectively [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The central bank's data shows that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy is obvious [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were 4009, 3995.4, 3985.8, and 3955.2 respectively, with declines of 0.29%, 0.30%, 0.33%, and 0.41%. The trading volumes decreased by 25,073 lots, 2028 lots, 47,192 lots, and 9170 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 12,573 lots, + 2405 lots, - 8205 lots, and - 787 lots respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were 2751.8, 2748.6, 2747.4, and 2750 respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.53%, 0.50%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes decreased by 13,916 lots, 1026 lots, 30,394 lots, and 3903 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 6696 lots, + 221 lots, - 7554 lots, and - 553 lots respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were 6008.4, 5951.4, 5897.6, and 5774.6 respectively, with declines of 0.30%, 0.36%, 0.39%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes decreased by 20,355 lots, 1770 lots, 25,404 lots, and 9770 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 13,063 lots, + 3845 lots, - 4713 lots, and - 741 lots respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were 6442.2, 6373.4, 6302.2, and 6120.8 respectively, with declines of 0.20%, 0.29%, 0.30%, and 0.28%. The trading volumes decreased by 31,955 lots, 6153 lots, 75,947 lots, and 20,616 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 14,229 lots, + 6035 lots, - 13,493 lots, and - 3322 lots respectively [1]. 3.2. Positions of the Top 20 Members - For IF contracts, in IF2507, long - orders decreased by 9620 lots with a net change of - 14,538 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,048 lots with a net change of - 15,421 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, in IH2507, long - orders decreased by 5448 lots with a net change of - 12,265 lots, and short - orders decreased by 6088 lots with a net change of - 12,841 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2507, long - orders decreased by 9785 lots with a net change of - 11,634 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,069 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long - orders decreased by 10,792 lots with a net change of - 20,778 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,998 lots with a net change of - 19,506 lots [5]. 3.3. Important Drivers - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The central bank said the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious [6]. - The central bank's deputy governor said that the monetary policy is moderately loose, and the policy state is supportive with accumulated effects. Since 2020, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and the policy interest rate 9 times [7]. 3.4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. A - share trading volume was 1.48 trillion yuan, down from 1.74 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.27%. The Nasdaq set a new closing record [8].

Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan on July 15, 2025 [1] - As of the end of June, M2 (broad money) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while M1 (narrow money) grew by 4.6% to 113.95 trillion yuan [2] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [2] Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory authorities, issued the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" to enhance liquidity in the green finance market and improve asset management efficiency [2] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - Vanke A expects a net loss of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a basic loss per share of 0.8433 to 1.01 yuan [4] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, impacted by the closure of 227 underperforming stores [5] - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, although it expects to reduce losses compared to the previous year [6] - Hengsheng Electronics projects a net profit of approximately 251 million yuan, a 741% increase year-on-year [7] - Wintime Technology expects a net profit of 390 million to 585 million yuan, representing a growth of 178% to 317% [8] - ST Huatuo anticipates a net profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.2% to 159% [9] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [10] - Ganfeng Lithium forecasts a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, compared to a loss of 760 million yuan in the same period last year [11] - Liyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan, a growth of 31.57% to 66.66% [12] - CICC anticipates a net profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% to 78% [13] - Shenwan Hongyuan projects a net profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, a growth of 92.66% to 111.46% [14] - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, an increase of 84.3% to 120.5% year-on-year [15] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan, a significant increase from 2.224 million yuan in the previous year [16] Corporate Actions and Legal Matters - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading on July 15, 2025 [17] - BOE Technology Group plans to appeal the preliminary ruling from the US International Trade Commission regarding trade secrets and has initiated a patent lawsuit against Samsung Display [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年7月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | 。 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18813吨 环比增长3 80% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . , | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为94110吨 环比增加0 48% 上周三元材料 ， . , | | | | | | | | | | 样本企业库存为16071吨 | 环比增加1 38% ， . 。 | | | | | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外 ...

碳酸锂突发事件点评 20250714 摘要 宜春云母矿矿权审批归属问题是历史遗留问题，最初按陶瓷土矿设立， 现需重新评估锂云母矿归属，但文件不会导致在产矿山停产或增加成本， 市场异动主要受情绪扰动影响。 4 月碳酸锂期货下跌后，碳酸锂股票表现出较好的抗跌性，市场情绪推 动股价上涨。目前可配置锂矿股，但需注意合理价位，避免在情绪高点 进入，因供需基本面未发生明确变化。 短期数据显示，价格反弹带动产量上涨，库存也在积累。淡季强需求预 期支撑价格，但供需基本面短期内仍在恶化。若后续需求未能验证，价 格可能下跌，建议选择合理价位配置股票。 等待商品价格回落后出现负反馈，如海外锂矿项目停产等事件性刺激， 再进行修复。关注今年旺季需求及供给端反应。 预计 2025 年下半年将有多头逼仓、反内卷及小作文情绪等事件性催化 因素，资金面和情绪面影响将商品价格从 6 万元拉升至 6.8 万元。 当前价格对冶炼厂和矿端较为舒适，冶炼厂可通过套保锁定成本，金属 端得到喘息机会。此次反弹可能延长产能出清时间点。 目前是布局锂板块底部机会的好时机，但必须选择合理价位进行布局， 并重点关注后续变化。 Q&A 宜春市对锂矿矿权进行停产整改的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year, M2 by 8.3%, and loan balance by 7.1%. The marginal improvement in credit was due to policy stimulus and the low base in June 2024. Future credit expansion is expected with new policy stimuli [6]. - For lithium carbonate, macro - policy disturbances have become the core driver. Despite an oversupply situation, the market may see increased volatility due to macro - sentiment and potential warehouse - receipt issues [7][8]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be short - term volatile and strong. It is recommended to hold light short positions in the 2510 contract and use long positions in the 2512 and 2502 contracts for protection [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Readings - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first half of 2025, China's social financing scale increment was 22.83 trillion yuan, with an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year - on - year. In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, with an increase of about 110 billion yuan year - on - year. M2 - M1 spread narrowed [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro - policy disturbances led to price fluctuations. The projects involved in the policy account for 10% of the global output, 24% of China's output, and 92% of Jiangxi's output. The market may be more volatile [7][8]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is short - term volatile and strong. Different scenarios are considered for the 2508 contract's settlement price, and a strategy of holding light short positions in the 2510 contract and protecting with long positions in the 2512 and 2502 contracts is recommended [9]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [12][18][19]. - **Base Metals** - Copper: Inventory increase puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [12][21][23]. - Zinc: It is under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [12][24][25]. - Lead: Attention should be paid to the consumption during the peak season, with a trend strength of 0 [12][26][27]. - Tin: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [12][29][31]. - Aluminum: It is under pressure in the off - season. Alumina is expected to be short - term bullish and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][33][35]. - Nickel: Support from the ore end is weakening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][36][41]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - Lithium Carbonate: Policy disturbances on the supply side are notable. The trend strength is 1 [12][42][44]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Policy disturbances affect the market. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [12][45][47]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strongly volatile, with a trend strength of 0 [12][48]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The market sentiment remains strong, and prices oscillate widely. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][51][53]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Steel - procurement prices have been settled, slightly boosting the market. The trend strengths of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0 [12][55][57]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is expected to be volatile and strong, and coking coal is affected by news and is also volatile and strong. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [12][58][61]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [12][63][66].

| | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 66,480 | 2,200 | 2,820 | 4,220 | 6,000 | -6,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,014,558 | 611,742 | 801,254 | 624,831 | 860,018 | 1,005,806 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 356,161 | 33,301 | 33,627 | 25,337 | 117,581 | 338,2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - Lithium carbonate: There are policy disturbances on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the subsequent actual progress [2]. - Industrial silicon: Market news has fermented, and the futures price has risen [2]. - Polysilicon: There are policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 290 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,715 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and other indicators of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Industry Chain: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 904 yuan, down 1 yuan from T - 1; the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 308 yuan, down 3 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the mining fiscal system bill [7]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,480 yuan, up 2,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume and other indicators also changed accordingly [10]. - Spot and Basis: The spot - 2509 basis was - 1,830 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 927 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day [11]. - Tianqi Lithium expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, while Ganfeng Lithium still expects a loss but with a reduced amount [11][12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of PS2508 was 41,765 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Price and Profit: The price of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as the profit of related enterprises, showed different changes. For example, the silicon - factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,387 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Inventory: The industrial - silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from T - 5 [13]. Macro and Industry News - Saudi Arabia has signed power - purchase agreements for 7 new solar and wind projects with a total installed capacity of 15GW and a total investment of about 8.3 billion US dollars [13][15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [15].