Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has decreased by 2.5 basis points, reaching 2.325% [1]

[Table_Title] 7 月债市，紧跟"破风手" [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►六月债市，利空渐除，利多酝酿 6 月债市收益率在震荡中下行，大行加力配置短债成为重要主 线。国债3年及以内收益率大幅下行，为"卷到极致"的债市重新打开上 涨空间。此外，随着关税博弈、存单到期、监管是否呵护跨季等潜在 偏空变量被逐一消解，市场开始对增量货币政策心怀期待，长久期利 率债与各期限信用债均受不同程度带动。 ►资金面呈季节性宽松特征 从月度中枢视角来看，7 月资金利率往往处于全年的"洼地"。主 要原因有两个，一是 7 月作为季初月，信贷投放通常不及预期，银行 金市往往有增量资金用于投放；二是 7 月作为下半年开端时点，地方 政府的考核压力不算太强，发力意愿偏弱，地方债净供给或走低。 对于今年 7 月资金面，除历史规律之外，关注公开市场中长资金 到期和政府债发行压力。7 月 MLF 累计到期规模为 3000 亿元，3M、 6M 买断式回购分别到期 7000、5000 亿元，合计 1.2 万亿元，央行的 续作态度同样会对资金面变化起到重要影响。此外，7 月政府债净发 行规模介于1 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, government bond yields experienced a rise and subsequent decline, influenced by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions [1] Market Performance - In Q1, the bond market faced a correction due to three main factors: market adjustments to the "moderately loose" monetary policy expectations, tight funding conditions due to restrained monetary operations, and better-than-expected fundamental data from January to February [1] - By the end of June, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, showing changes of 22.35 basis points, 9.13 basis points, -2.90 basis points, and -6.25 basis points compared to December 31 [1] Policy Dynamics - The first half of the year saw the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. On May 8, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, leading to a corresponding 10 basis point drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - On May 15, the reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [1] Bond Supply and Demand - As of June 27, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a total of 20,973 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, achieving 47% of the issuance target [1] - The refinancing of special replacement bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 18,031 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 90% [1] - The net issuance of government bonds was 33,802 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 50.7%, including the early issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds compared to the previous year [1] Strategy Outlook - The current funding conditions are loose, with the overnight DR dropping below the policy rate to 1.4%, but the bond market lacks strong upward momentum [1] - In the absence of further interest rate cuts, the bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with an optimistic forecast for the 10-year government bond yield's low point at 1.50% [1] - If interest rates are cut by 10-20 basis points, the low point could potentially drop to 1.3% - 1.4% [1]

日本10年期国债拍卖结果出炉，得标倍数为3.51，过去12个月均值为3.14。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bid-to-cover ratio for Japan's 10-year government bond auction was 3.51, which is lower than the 3.66 recorded in the previous auction held in June [1] Group 1 - The current bid-to-cover ratio indicates a decrease in demand for Japan's 10-year government bonds compared to the previous auction [1]

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued a 10-year general local government bond with a scale of 6.88784 billion [1] - The issuance interest rate is set at 1.7500% [1] - The marginal multiple was recorded at 1.93 times, with an expected multiple of 1.99 [1]

Group 1 - The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has decreased by 1 basis point to 87 basis points, potentially reaching the narrowest closing level since 2010 [1] - The yield spread between Italian and French 10-year government bonds has fallen to below 20 basis points, marking the first occurrence since 2007 [1]

两年期德债收益率涨0.1个基点，报1.861%，6月份累涨8.6个基点，上半年累跌22.1个基点，整体交投于 2.320%-1.622%区间；30年期德债收益率涨3.0个基点，报3.100%，6月份累涨12.0个基点，上半年累涨 50.3个基点，军费开支预期使得3月5日出现显著的"跳空高开"行情。 2/10年期德债收益率利差涨1.328个基点，报+74.109个基点，6月份累涨1.891个基点，上半年累涨46.103 个基点，整体交投区间为+22.108个基点至+97.406个基点，4月份达到峰值后持续高位震荡。 周一（6月30日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨涨1.5个基点，报2.607%，6月份累计上涨10.7个 基点，上半年累计上涨24.0个基点，整体交投于2.344%-2.940%区间，3月12日达到顶部。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury bill auction held on June 30 was 4.11%, slightly down from the previous yield of 4.12% [1]

美国至6月30日3个月国债竞拍-投标倍数 3.04，前值3.49。 ...