这两年，很多人观察美国经济，都会感到一种明显的矛盾。一方面，美国公布的统计数据依旧好看。 GDP还在增长，股市不断创新高，美元依然强势。另一方面，普通美国人的生活，却越来越吃紧。"美 国斩杀线"这个词，也开始在网络上流行。 问题就出在这里。美国经济的表现，为什么会和普通人的生活，越来越脱钩？要理解这一点，必须先看 一个长期被忽略的指标，那就是美国国债收益率。 按正常逻辑，美联储只要开始降息，美国国债收益率就应该同步下降。利率下降，政府借钱的成本就会 降低，财政压力自然会减轻。这是过去几十年反复验证过的规律。 但现实情况却完全相反。最近，美联储已经连续释放降息信号，但美国10年期国债收益率却不降反升， 30年期国债收益率同样维持高位。这种走势，明显违背直觉。 市场给出的解释，其实只有一句话：投资者已经不再单纯相信"降息就能解决问题"。当这种信心发生动 摇时，美国国债本身，就会开始失去吸引力。 这意味着一件事。美国政府无论如何强调自己的经济实力，国际市场上的一部分买家，已经不愿意再无 条件接盘美国国债。抛售美债，正在成为一种现实趋势。其中最受关注的例子，就是中国。 美国财政部在18日公布的最新数据显示，今年10月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has led to negative returns for dollar deposits, impacting individuals and families with foreign currency holdings [2][3][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The offshore yuan has shown a significant upward trend against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 7.3368 by December 31, 2024 [1]. - Since November 21, the yuan has been steadily rising from around 7.11, with expectations of breaking the 7 mark increasing [6]. - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting [7]. Group 2: Impact on Individuals and Families - Individuals holding dollar deposits have experienced losses due to the yuan's appreciation, with one case showing a loss of 1,033 yuan on an 8,400 dollar deposit [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the yuan's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies [3][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets [8]. - Increased demand for yuan due to seasonal currency exchange needs from businesses is contributing to the currency's strength [7].

1. Report Information - Report title: "Big Asset Morning Report" - Report date: December 25, 2025 - Report team: Macro Team of the Research Center [1] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Bond Market - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.136%, UK 4.504%, France 3.561%, Germany 2.861%, Italy 3.550%, Spain 3.286%, Switzerland 0.293%, Greece 3.444%, Japan 2.042%, Brazil 6.159%, China 1.835%, Australia 4.740%, New Zealand 4.448% [2] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: The latest yields of 2 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are: US 3.506%, UK 3.721%, Germany 2.140%, Japan 1.098%, Italy 2.261%, China (1 - year yield) 1.336%, Australia 4.031% [2] 2.2 Exchange - rate Market - **USD against Major Emerging - economy Currencies**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.540, South Africa (zar) 16.665, South Korea (won) 1446.900, Thailand (baht) 31.022, Malaysia (ringgit) 4.047. The latest rates of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 7.016, 7.007, 7.047, and 6.886 respectively [2] 2.3 Stock Market - **Major Economies' Stock Indexes**: The latest values of major economies' stock indexes are: S&P 500 6932.050, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48731.160, NASDAQ 23613.310, Mexico Stock Index 65616.430, UK Stock Index 9870.680, France CAC 8103.580, Spain Stock Index 17172.900, Russia Stock Index (not available), Nikkei 50344.100, Hang Seng Index 25818.930, Shanghai Composite Index 3940.947, Taiwan Stock Index 28371.980, South Korea Stock Index 4108.620, India Stock Index 8537.911, Thailand Stock Index 1275.330, Malaysia Stock Index 1678.310, Australia Stock Index 9068.961, Emerging - economy Stock Index 1392.070 [2] 2.4 Credit - bond Market - **Credit - bond Indexes**: The latest values of credit - bond indexes are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3545.840, Euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.380, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.210, US high - yield credit - bond index 2909.190, Euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.840, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1822.849 [2] 3. Stock - index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3940.95, 4634.06, 3025.18, 3229.58, and 7352.04 respectively. The percentage changes are 0.53%, 0.29%, - 0.08%, 0.77%, and 1.31% respectively [3] 3.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.11, 11.78, 33.37, 27.69, and 18.84 respectively. The环比changes are 0.02, - 0.02, 0.41, 0.09, and 0.00 respectively [3] 3.3 Risk Premium - The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.52 and 2.45 respectively. The环比changes are 0.02 and 0.00 respectively [3] 3.4 Fund Flow - The latest values of fund flow in A - share, main board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are 626.94, 328.21, 247.71, and 85.15 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 22.94, - 42.38, 19.99, and 73.46 respectively [3] 3.5 Transaction Amount and Basis - The latest transaction amounts of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 18802.68, 4063.76, 912.64, 3992.53, and 5025.69 respectively. The环比changes are - 195.73, - 267.65, - 192.06, 102.09, and 88.86 respectively. The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 39.06, 1.82, and - 111.64 respectively, with the corresponding basis spreads of - 0.84%, 0.06%, and - 1.52% [4] 4. Treasury - futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.23, 106.03, 108.23, and 106.02 respectively. The percentage changes are 0.01%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.01% respectively. The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3568%, 1.5198%, and 1.6000% respectively, with the daily changes of - 14.00 BP, 2.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [4]

重要的消息有哪些 1.针对美国拟自2027年起对中国半导体产业征收关税，外交部发言人林剑24日在例行记者会上表示，中 方坚决反对美方滥施关税，无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳定，阻碍各国半导体产业 发展，损人害己。林剑说，我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平 等、尊重、互惠的基础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定健康可持续发 展。如果美方一意孤行，中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 10.市场监管总局等部门印发《网售工业产品质量安全专项治理行动方案(2025—2027年)》，到2027年 底，基本建立网售工业产品质量安全监管长效机制，网络交易经营者质量安全主体责任进一步压 实，"源头可溯、过程可控、风险可防、责任可究"的质量安全监管体系基本形成，网售工业产品质量安 全水平大幅提升。 2.中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度(总第111次)例会于12月18日召开。会议指出，要引导大 型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增强银行资本实力，共同维护 金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实 ...

中国减持118亿美债，2008年以来最大规模抛售！美国关税大棒砸向自己的脚 2025年12月，美国财政部最新数据显示，中国单月减持118亿美元美债，持仓规模降至6887亿美元，创下2008年金融危机以来最低点。这笔抛售看似只是全 球经济棋盘上的一步小棋，却让华尔街感到了寒意，毕竟，中国曾是手握超1.2万亿美元美债的"大债主"，如今规模缩水近半。这一切，恰好发生在美国宣 布对台军售100亿美元后的48小时内。 中国抛售的美债去了哪里？答案写在日本和英国的账本上。2025年7月，日本增持38亿美元美债，持仓规模达1.15万亿美元；英国更是狂购413亿美元，以 8993亿美元的持仓额取代中国，成为美国第二大海外债主。这种"东方减持、西方接盘"的局面，表面是市场行为，背后却是政治与经济的双重博弈。 日本增持美债更像是一场无奈的选择。其外汇储备中91.9%配置于美债，且长期依赖美国的安全庇护，增持被视为缴纳"保护费"。而英国脱欧后亟需巩固英 美金融纽带，通过接盘美债换取美国在科技与金融监管上的支持。但两国自身经济问题缠身：日本政府债务率超过260%，日元年内贬值超5%；英国通胀高 企、英镑疲软，硬扛美债反而可能拖慢经济 ...

二级交易活跃度与定价 存量科创债评级呈现高度集中特征，AA+及以上隐含评级债券数量占比为 72.8%，AA 级中等资质个券占比也达到 23%， 反映部分中小科创主体融资需求；行业分布则以传统行业为主导，建筑装饰、公用事业、综合行业债券数量占比 37.6%， 纺织服饰、医药生物、通信行业较该行业全部信用债估值存在 12bp 以上的超额利差。 流动性方面，受央行公开市场操作稳定资金面预期、科创债 ETF 资金净流入与交易活跃驱动，本周科创债周度换手率 回升至 1.72%，成交笔数也增长至 989 笔，其中 3 年内品种成交笔数已上升至年内 90%以上的高位。 收益率视角上，本周交易所中短久期科创债价格修复，1-3 年品种成交收益均值下行 4bp 至 1.96%。短期内，流动性 宽松预期、政策红利持续释放、ETF 配置资金流入将是科创债收益率下行的直接推手。不过因品种一级供给节奏较快， 市场仍需时间消化，科创债收益率恐难以大幅下行，预计将维持震荡格局。 一级发行规模与结构 科创新债认购情绪企稳。本周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19，下同）科创债一级市场供给规模达 546.1 亿元，延续了前 一周的放量趋 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, specifically convertible bonds and credit bonds, with an emphasis on strategies for constructing high-yield portfolios in a competitive environment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Projections**: The 10-year government bond yield is expected to rise to approximately 1.9% by January, indicating limited capital gain potential for long-term bonds [1][2]. 2. **Investment Strategy**: Emphasis on mid to short-term credit bonds and government bonds, such as 2-year and 5-year bonds, utilizing a bullet strategy with leverage for better returns [1][2][3]. 3. **Specific Bond Recommendations**: - Recommended bonds include 5-year active government bonds and older government bonds (e.g., 21-year bonds 205, 210) suitable for banks and amortized cost funds [1][3]. - Attention to cheaper floating-rate financial bonds, such as 25-year bonds from Jiangsu Bank and Industrial Bank [1][3]. - Long-term focus on 10-year agricultural development bonds with higher yields compared to similar maturity government bonds [1][3]. 4. **Convertible Bonds Analysis**: Historical price trends of convertible bonds indicate that zero-coupon convertible bonds can be evaluated for bottom-fishing opportunities, with specific examples like Huazhong Convertible Bond priced at 121 with a premium rate of 7% [4][5]. 5. **Price Stability of Debt-type Convertible Bonds**: Debt-type convertible bonds show stable performance in their final year, typically maintaining a price range of 105 to 110, while equity-type bonds tend to decline as time value diminishes [6][7]. 6. **Downward Adjustment Probability**: Only 25% of convertible bonds undergo downward adjustments in their final year, indicating a low likelihood of such actions [8]. 7. **Potential Convertible Bonds**: Notable convertible bonds nearing maturity include Ziyinhuan, Jidong, Qinglong, Nenghua, and Guotou, which are close to historical averages and have positive market expectations [9]. 8. **Market Demand for Equity-type Convertible Bonds**: Strong demand for equity-type and newly issued convertible bonds is noted, driven by positive stock market expectations [10][11]. 9. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: - Focus on balanced convertible bonds, equity-type new bonds, and sectors like upstream materials (photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals) and manufacturing expansion [12][13]. - Highlighting policy-driven sectors such as aerospace, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, and hydrogen energy for potential investment opportunities [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis of convertible bonds includes a statistical review of 92 bonds from 2021 to present, with 74 reaching maturity and 18 being forcibly redeemed in the last year [5]. - The current market environment is characterized by strong demand and reduced supply, particularly for convertible bonds with good elasticity [10][11]. - The potential for trading opportunities exists in older bonds that may not be forcibly redeemed, providing avenues for investors to capitalize on market fluctuations [11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and recommendations from the conference call, focusing on the bond market's dynamics and investment strategies.

Group 1 - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds to alleviate market concerns over excess supply and rising yields, with the new issuance expected to drop to approximately 17 trillion yen (about 109 billion USD), the lowest level in 17 years [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance intends to cut the monthly issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 1 trillion yen each, reflecting ongoing structural pressures in the ultra-long-term bond market [2] - The government maintains stable issuance levels for medium- and short-term bonds, with plans to issue 31.2 trillion yen of 10-year bonds, keeping the monthly issuance at 2.6 trillion yen, consistent with current levels [2] Group 2 - Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has emphasized the need to focus on economic revitalization since taking office in October, indicating a shift away from strict fiscal restoration goals [3] - The upcoming budget is based on a record 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan aimed at mitigating the impact of rising living costs on the economy [3] - Despite rising bond yields, the government has toned down aggressive fiscal spending rhetoric, with Takashi stating that the government will not resort to "irresponsible" debt issuance or tax cuts [3]

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The Long March 12甲 rocket successfully completed its maiden flight on December 23, achieving its second-stage orbit insertion goal, although the first-stage recovery did not meet expectations. This event highlights the importance of commercial aerospace development [3][5]. - The successful verification of the liquid oxygen-methane technology route is significant, as this fuel is considered a "clean gasoline" for rockets, allowing for carbon-free and reusable applications, which could facilitate future missions to Mars [5]. - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and private companies is enhancing the aerospace industry, with the Aerospace Eight Institute providing a framework and private firms supplying core engines, thus activating the entire industry chain [5]. Group 2: Market Indices - Despite over 3,800 stocks declining in the market, the indices managed to close slightly positive, indicating a divergence where the index appears strong while individual stocks are underperforming [6]. - The market is currently fluctuating around the 5-day moving average, with increasing short-term divergence, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted as investors await clearer direction [7]. Group 3: Macro and Fixed Income - The 30-year government bond futures surged by 0.89%, reaching nearly 113, driven by a favorable liquidity environment despite the central bank's net withdrawal of funds. This has attracted institutional investors, leading to a drop in the yield of ultra-long bonds to 2.2% [7][8]. - The U.S. GDP for the third quarter grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, significantly exceeding expectations, primarily due to strong consumer spending, although core PCE inflation rose to 2.9%, dampening interest rate cut expectations [8]. - The Chinese yuan strengthened, breaking the 7.05 mark against the dollar, reaching a 14-month high, with a year-to-date appreciation of 3%, making Chinese assets attractive to foreign investors amid global market pressures [8].

在下一财年的债券发行计划中，财务省还将暂缓增加基准10年期日本国债的发行量。 日本财务省将考虑在下一财年每月减少20年期、30年期和40年期日本国债的发行量1000亿日元。 责任编辑：刘明亮 在下一财年的债券发行计划中，财务省还将暂缓增加基准10年期日本国债的发行量。 日本财务省将考虑在下一财年每月减少20年期、30年期和40年期日本国债的发行量1000亿日元。 责任编辑：刘明亮 消息人士透露，日本下一财年超长期国债新发行规模可能降至约17万亿日元（1090亿美元），为17年来 最低水平 消息人士透露，日本下一财年超长期国债新发行规模可能降至约17万亿日元（1090亿美元），为17年来 最低水平 ...