氯碱日报 | 2025-05-20 山东下游采购价上调，烧碱盘面震荡上行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4959元/吨（+12）；华东基差-129元/吨（-12）;华南基差-79元/吨（-12）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4880元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-658元/吨（+47）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-526元/吨（+126）；PVC出口利润-0.2美元/吨（+9.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.6万吨（-2.0）；PVC社会库存39.7万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量63.2万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2586元/吨（+51）；山东32%液碱基差39元/吨（-20）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector in China is maintaining its development momentum despite external challenges, supported by strong domestic demand and favorable policies, with a notable recovery in product demand driven by various industries [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1, the chemical sector's 529 listed companies reported a total revenue of 621.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.33%, while net profit reached 36.208 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.58% [1]. - The refrigerant industry benefited from regulatory policies, leading to a revenue increase of 23.31% to 14.654 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 140.16% to 1.77 billion yuan [2]. - The chlor-alkali industry saw a net profit increase of 84.55% to 3.117 billion yuan, despite a revenue decline of 13.98% to 45.922 billion yuan [2]. - The food and feed additive sector achieved a revenue of 37.773 billion yuan, up 4.21%, with net profit rising 75.57% to 5.369 billion yuan [3]. - The agricultural chemical sector reported a revenue of 49.378 billion yuan, down 6.51%, but net profit increased by 25.12% to 3.093 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The organic silicon industry faced significant challenges, with net profit dropping by 37.74% despite stable revenue [4]. - The titanium dioxide sector experienced a revenue decline of 14.35% and a net profit drop of 35.61% due to high production levels and weak downstream demand [4]. - The nitrogen fertilizer industry reported a revenue decrease of 4.28% and a significant net profit decline of 56.82% [4]. - The tire industry showed a revenue increase of 6.34% but faced a net profit decline of 24.84%, attributed to rising production costs [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain its growth cycle due to quota systems and increasing downstream demand [6]. - The agricultural chemical market is anticipated to stabilize as the peak usage season approaches, with active trading expected [6]. - The chemical industry must navigate challenges such as increased competition in the titanium dioxide market and the need for innovation in the daily chemical sector [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].

姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月19日 --------中美贸易关税缓和 铝土矿因素扰动氧化铝、烧碱期货 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.6%，较上周环比-1.3%。西北、西南新增重启或降负，带动负荷不同程度下滑，华北检修及重启并存，负荷提升。其 | | | | 中山东产能利用率-1.8%至86.8%。本周华中、华东均有装置减产及检修，西北、华北、西南装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率降至82.9%左右，周产量80.53 | | ...

立期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】12925 2025年5月16日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月15日 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2593.8 | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2760.0 | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4880.0 | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | | SH2505 | 2535.0 | | SH2509 | 2567.0 | | SH基差 | 58.8 | | CHOCAL SEDO | 000 | | SH星差 | 58.8 | 224.8 | -166.0 | -73.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SH2505-2509 | -32.0 | -161.0 | 129.0 | 80.1% | | V2505 | 4899.0 | 4860.0 | 39.0 | 0.8% | | V2509 | 5041.0 | 4986.0 | 55.0 | 1.1% | | V基差 | -19.0 | -80.0 | 61. ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-16 山东下游采购价再上调，烧碱盘面震荡走高 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5041元/吨（+55）；华东基差-141元/吨（+45）;华南基差-81元/吨（+35）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4900元/吨（+100）；华南电石法报价4960元/吨（+90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-705元/吨（-116）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润3.0美元/吨（+3.9）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC社会库存41.0万吨（+0.6）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量52.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2567元/吨（+37）；山东32%液碱基差27元/吨（-37）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2][41]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is experiencing overall profit pressure, with a divergence in performance across sub-industries. In 2024, the industry is expected to see revenue growth without profit increase, with a slight decline in chemical product price indices and continued low demand globally [4][19]. - In 2024, the overall revenue of the chemical industry is projected to be 28,649.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.96%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,080.70 billion, a decrease of 7.10% [4][15]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight improvement, with revenue reaching 6,769.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.30%, and net profit of 337.50 billion, an increase of 5.58% [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The chemical industry is in a low prosperity phase, with a competitive landscape intensifying and continued pressure on product prices and profitability. The overall gross profit margin for the industry is 14.57%, down by 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2. Sub-Industry Performance - In 2024, the top five sub-industries by revenue growth are rubber products (+23.27%), modified plastics (+16.60%), nylon and polyester (+14.65%), membrane materials (+12.56%), and other plastic products (+9.70%). The top five by net profit growth are nitrogen fertilizers (+145.81%), chlor-alkali (+122.69%), dyeing chemicals (+119.16%), compound fertilizers (+59.81%), and rubber additives (+42.74%) [6][33]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the leading sub-industries by revenue growth are compound fertilizers (+26.73%), modified plastics (+22.35%), civil explosives (+20.07%), potassium fertilizers (+19.93%), and synthetic resins (+18.71%). The top five by net profit growth are fluorochemicals (+99.89%), chlor-alkali (+86.21%), pesticides (+72.93%), membrane materials (+54.54%), and potassium fertilizers (+44.95%) [6][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sub-industries with expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics, leading companies driven by capital expenditure expansion and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or ongoing domestic substitution [7][43]. - Recommended investment targets include Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng, and Guoci Materials [7][44].

Summary of 嘉化能源 Conference Call Company Overview - 嘉化能源's core businesses include steam supply, chlor-alkali production, and fatty alcohol production. The steam business benefits from being the only steam supply station in the 嘉兴港区, ensuring stable gross margins through coal-heat linkage pricing. The expected steam sales volume for 2025 is projected to reach 9.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [2][4][12]. Key Business Segments Steam Supply - The steam business is expected to grow by 12% in 2025, with future growth rates potentially maintaining at 6%-7% [4][19]. - The company has optimized boiler processes, saving 20,000 tons of standard coal costs annually while ensuring steam output [12]. Chlor-Alkali Production - The company has a self-generation advantage that reduces caustic soda production costs. The current monitored annual capacity is approximately 297,000 tons, with gross margins significantly higher than peers by 10-15 percentage points [2][7][15]. - The chlor-alkali industry is expected to see favorable supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term, with a current annual growth rate of about 3-4% [13]. Fatty Alcohol Production - The actual annual production capacity for fatty alcohol can reach 300,000 tons, with plans to expand by 150,000 tons in Q3 2025 at an investment not exceeding 600 million yuan [2][8]. - The company benefits from proximity to downstream leader 赞宇科技, reducing transportation costs through direct pipeline supply [5][8]. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - 嘉化能源 maintains a stable dividend yield of around 50% and actively conducts stock buybacks. A new buyback plan was announced in April 2025, aiming to repurchase between 400 million and 600 million yuan worth of shares [2][9][21]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.84 yuan in 2024, 0.96 yuan in 2026, and 1.09 yuan in 2027, with corresponding profit volumes of 1.167 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.512 billion yuan [4][19]. Market and Industry Dynamics Regulatory Environment - A heating document released in 2024 mandates the shutdown of small coal-fired facilities within a 30-kilometer radius, promoting the use of combined heat and power (CHP) systems, which benefits 嘉化能源 by creating regional barriers and encouraging industry consolidation [2][10]. Regional Advantages - 嘉兴港区's geographical location is advantageous, being close to major cities and having a high demand for chemical products. The area has attracted over 40 domestic enterprises, enhancing integrated development [11]. Competitive Advantages - 嘉化能源's self-generation capability significantly lowers production costs, particularly in the chlor-alkali sector, where electricity costs account for 60% of production expenses [3][16]. - The company’s chlor-alkali gross margins are notably higher than competitors in the Yangtze River Delta region, attributed to its unique position as the only green electricity producer in the area [15][16]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for future capital expenditures due to its low debt ratio of 22.669% and stable cash flow, allowing for continued investment in new projects while maintaining shareholder returns [22]. - The fatty alcohol industry is expected to see an increase in capacity, with 嘉化能源 planning to expand its theoretical capacity from 200,000 tons to 350,000 tons, aiming for an operating rate of 140%-150% [18]. Conclusion - 嘉化能源 presents a stable investment opportunity with strong fundamentals, a focus on shareholder returns, and a favorable market position within the energy and chemical sectors. The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its core business segments while navigating regulatory changes and leveraging its competitive advantages.

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-15 宏观情绪提振，PVC盘面大幅上行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 上游生产利润：山东烧碱利润1590元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）917.8元/吨（+39.2）；山东氯碱综 合利润（1吨PVC）175.79元/吨（+70.00）；西北氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）1260.43元/吨（+30.00）。 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存38.84万吨（-2.74）；片碱工厂库存3.03万吨（+0.52）；烧碱开工率83.90%（-0.20%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率75.76%（-0.20%）；印染华东开工率60.68%（+0.62%）；粘胶短浅开工率81.00% （+1.29%）。 市场分析 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4986元/吨（+149）；华东基差-186元/吨（-59）;华南基差-116元/吨（-59）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4800元/吨（+90）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（+90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-705元/吨 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月14日 | 2月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 66.53 | 66.63 | -0.10 | -0.15% | | | WTI | 63.59 | 63.67 | -0.08 | -0.13% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 491.00 | 482.80 | 8.20 | 1.70% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 2.15% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | 12.20 | 12.90 | -0.70 | -5.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 2.94 | 2.96 | -0.02 | -0.68% | | | EFS | 1.15 | 1.11 ...