1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery market is expected to see significant growth in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic production and sales increases, as well as demand from the old-for-new policy and fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 986.5 GWh, marking a 48.3% year-on-year increase, with power batteries contributing the most at 684 GWh (up 49%) and energy storage batteries exceeding 25% market share at 258 GWh (up 106%) [2][4]. Segment Analysis Power Segment - In China, the continuation of the old-for-new subsidy policy and the popularity of new models led to domestic new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. The commercial vehicle market saw a significant demand increase, with sales of new energy commercial vehicles reaching 70,000 units (up 58.6%) [4][5]. - In the overseas market, the EU has eased carbon emission assessments for car manufacturers, and countries like Belgium and Poland are providing subsidies to stimulate local demand for new energy vehicles. The U.S. market, however, faced challenges due to policy changes affecting EV subsidies [4][5]. Energy Storage Segment - The energy storage market experienced strong demand in the first half of the year due to both preemptive stocking and installation needs. In China, the large-scale storage market was influenced by the cancellation of mandatory storage policies, leading to increased demand for upstream battery cells [5]. - Internationally, the U.S. maintained high demand for power storage, although fluctuating tariff policies created some disruptions. Europe saw a rise in demand as inventory was consumed, while markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia continued to show strong demand [5]. Digital Consumer Segment - The introduction of the old-for-new policy for high-end electronic consumer goods set a positive tone for the digital consumer market in early 2025, with a noticeable recovery in demand for products like smartphones. The electric tools market is also expanding, particularly with the rise of humanoid robots [5]. Future Outlook - The overall demand in the domestic market is expected to remain strong, with Chinese lithium battery manufacturers like CATL, BYD, and Zhongchuang Innovation further increasing their global market share. The global lithium battery production is projected to exceed 2000 GWh in 2025, driven by the growth of popular new energy vehicle models and advancements in energy storage technology [6][8].

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电动车中期策略：稳健增长低估值，聚焦锂电龙头和固态 新技术 20250715 摘要 全球电动车市场保持增长，预计 2025 年增长 21%至 2,070 万辆， 2026 年增长 16%以上。中国市场受政策刺激，预计 2025 年增长 25% 以上；欧洲市场表现超预期，全年预计增长 27%；美国市场增长有限， 新兴市场增速较快，预计增长 35%。 全球储能需求强劲增长，预计 2025 年达到 1.8 TWh，同比增长 31%，2026 年达到 2.1-2.2 TWh，同比增长 20%以上。中国储能装 机量预计增长 20%-30%，欧洲和新兴市场增速最快，美国市场潜力巨 大但受政策影响。 固态电池被认为是未来主流方向，硫化物固态电解质已具备小规模量产 准备，多家头部企业完成 60 安时小试线测试。工信部规划 2027 年实 现小规模量产，2030 年大规模量产，市场目标达到 100GWh 左右。 锂电板块整体需求稳健，估值较低，具备全球竞争力的龙头企业是价值 选择。宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能和科达利等龙头企业以及璞泰来、 尚太科技、华友钴业等材料领域公司值得关注。 Q&A 锂电行业的中期策略核心观点是什么？ 锂 ...

当前，杉杉股份的控股股东杉杉集团正处于破产重整状态。 今年1月21日，中国建设银行股份有限公司宁波市分行、宁波鄞州农村商业银行股份有限公司宁穿支 行、兴业银行股份有限公司宁波分行向人民法院申请对杉杉集团进行重整。 7月15日，杉杉股份披露半年度业绩预告，上半年预计实现净利润1.6亿-2.4亿元，同比增加 810.41%-1265.61%。 该公司去年全年实现营收186.8亿元，同比下滑2.05%；同期净亏损3.67亿元，利润同比下滑147.97%。 智通财经记者 | 高菁 负极材料龙头杉杉股份(600884.SH)上半年业绩大幅好转。 根据ICC鑫椤资讯数据统计，2025年上半年，人造负极材料市占率同比提升6个点至92%，杉杉股份蝉联 人造负极市占率榜首。 杉杉股份相关人士向智通财经表示，上半年业绩大幅增长受到多方面因素促进。 负极材料产品的原材料价格涨势回落为因素之一。 负极材料的主要原料包括石油焦、针状焦和沥青粘结剂等。隆众资讯负极材料分析师梁淑婷向智通财经 表示，今年年初，受储能政策调整以及中美关税战的影响，国内锂电池行业出现了需求前置现象。在此 背景下，国内石油焦现货价格大幅上涨。 隆众资讯数据显示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of the Hong Kong stock market as a global hub for IPOs, highlighting a significant increase in new listings and capital raised, positioning Hong Kong as a critical player in international finance and investment, particularly for Chinese enterprises [3][4][30]. IPO Boom - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong saw 240 companies enter the market, with 220 more in the pipeline as of June 30 [4][11]. - A total of 43 new stocks were listed, a 43.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024, raising HKD 1,067.1 billion, surpassing Nasdaq [4][10]. - The IPO of Ningde Times raised approximately HKD 357 billion, marking the largest global IPO of the year [8]. Historical Context - The article reflects on the historical evolution of Hong Kong's IPO landscape, from the early days of state-owned enterprises to the current influx of tech and consumer companies [6][14]. - The return of Chinese companies to Hong Kong, particularly in the wake of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, has revitalized the market [4][30]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the Hong Kong stock market has become a vital link for Chinese companies seeking international capital, with a significant portion of new listings being from mainland enterprises [4][30]. - The dominance of Chinese financial institutions in underwriting new listings is highlighted, with major players like CICC and CITIC leading the way [16][18]. Investment Trends - The influx of capital from mainland investors has increased, with southbound funds contributing HKD 730 billion, raising their market share to 43.9% [21][22]. - New consumer brands and innovative companies are capturing investor interest, with examples like Moutai and Bubble Mart showcasing unique business models that resonate with global investors [9][20]. Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that Hong Kong could see up to 80 new IPOs in 2024, raising HKD 200 billion, reinforcing its status as a leading global financial center [13][30]. - The article emphasizes the ongoing reforms in Hong Kong's financial market, including the introduction of SPACs and support for tech companies, which are expected to attract more listings and investments [30].

7月15日，国家统计局发布中国经济"半年报"。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价 格计算，同比增长5.3%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。从环比 看，二季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办发布会上表示，今年以来，国际环境复杂多变、国际经贸秩序遭受重 创，不稳定性、不确定性增加。面对复杂局面，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各 部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，加紧实施更加积 极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标 好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。 来之不易 含金量高 据介绍，上半年经济运行呈现出四个主要特点： "稳"的态势持续。盛来运表示，上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。从观察宏观经济的四大指 标看：增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点；调查失业率 总体平稳，今年以来月度调查失业率基本都在5%至5.4%区间波动；物价低位运行，基本平 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guomin Technology has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor. The company operates in the integrated circuit and lithium battery materials sectors, with both business segments expected to contribute approximately 47% of revenue in 2024 [2][3]. Group 1: Business Overview - Guomin Technology is a platform-based integrated circuit design company that provides high-security, high-reliability, and high-integration control chips and system solutions for various smart terminals. The company also develops lithium battery anode materials, creating a synergistic dual business model of "integrated circuits + new energy materials" [3][7]. - In the integrated circuit sector, the company focuses on four product lines: general-purpose MCUs, specialized market chips, RF chips, and BMS. It ranks among the top five Chinese companies in the global platform MCU market and is the leading company in the Chinese MCU market with built-in commercial encryption algorithm modules [7]. - The lithium battery anode materials business includes independent research, production, and sales of products such as artificial graphite and graphitization processing services, widely used in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and portable devices [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Guomin Technology has experienced steady revenue growth in recent years but has faced continuous losses. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, while incurring a loss of 256 million yuan, although the loss narrowed compared to the previous year [12]. - The company reported a revenue of 304 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.87%, with a net loss of approximately 21.38 million yuan [12]. - The company's gross profit margin has been unstable, with figures of 35.6%, 1.7%, and 15.6% from 2022 to 2024. The significant drop in 2023 was attributed to oversupply in the market leading to price declines and inventory write-downs [12]. - Research and administrative expenses are substantial, accounting for 16% and 13.9% of revenue in 2024, respectively. The company has reported a net cash outflow from operating activities for three consecutive years, with a cash and cash equivalents balance of 362 million yuan and short-term borrowings of 837 million yuan at the end of the period [12]. Group 3: Shareholding Structure - The prospectus indicates that Guomin Technology does not have a controlling shareholder or actual controller. Prior to the Hong Kong listing, the largest single shareholder is Sun Yingtong, holding 2.65% of the shares [13][16].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the downturn in lithium carbonate prices, Tianqi Lithium's profitability is expected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium's revenue for 2024 was 13.063 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.75% year-on-year, with a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, down 208.32% year-on-year [3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.584 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, an increase of 102.68% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The lithium product market is currently experiencing a bottoming process, which is expected to facilitate industry clearing and restructuring [4][7]. - The lithium industry is characterized by high competition, and companies must continuously enhance their core competitiveness to navigate through cycles successfully [7]. Industry Outlook - The long-term outlook for the lithium industry remains positive, driven by the growth of the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors [6]. - Emerging applications such as electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and drones are expanding the market for lithium batteries [6]. Pricing Trends - As of July 4, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 62,300 yuan per ton, indicating a need for key catalysts for a market reversal, such as production cuts from large mines or increased downstream demand [7].