在下一财年的债券发行计划中，财务省还将暂缓增加基准10年期日本国债的发行量。 日本财务省将考虑在下一财年每月减少20年期、30年期和40年期日本国债的发行量1000亿日元。 责任编辑：刘明亮 在下一财年的债券发行计划中，财务省还将暂缓增加基准10年期日本国债的发行量。 日本财务省将考虑在下一财年每月减少20年期、30年期和40年期日本国债的发行量1000亿日元。 责任编辑：刘明亮 消息人士透露，日本下一财年超长期国债新发行规模可能降至约17万亿日元（1090亿美元），为17年来 最低水平 消息人士透露，日本下一财年超长期国债新发行规模可能降至约17万亿日元（1090亿美元），为17年来 最低水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth data has diminished market expectations for a recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a general decline in global stock markets while commodities surge, particularly precious metals and agricultural products [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - U.S. stock index futures fell, with the Dow Jones futures down over 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.12% [2]. - Asian stock indices also declined, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.1% and South Korea's Seoul Composite Index down 0.2% [2]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the Japanese yen strengthened for three consecutive days, trading at 155.67 against the dollar [3]. - The South Korean won also appreciated, nearing the psychologically significant 1500 won per dollar mark, which has only been breached during extreme market pressures [6]. Commodity Price Trends - Gold prices initially surpassed $4500 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4485, marking a significant increase of over two-thirds this year [3][8]. - Silver prices rose nearly 1% to $72.11 per ounce, driven by both investment and industrial demand [11]. - Platinum prices reached a historical high above $2300 per ounce, influenced by supply shortages from major producing countries [14]. - London copper prices hit a record high, surpassing $12224 per ton [17]. - Chicago wheat futures continued to rise for five consecutive trading days, driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical issues and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. [18].

Key Points - The issuance of non-financial corporate credit bonds decreased by 4% week-on-week, with a significant decline in city investment bonds by 20% and real estate bonds by 37% [7][49] - Vanke proposed a new extension plan for its 2 billion medium-term notes, extending the principal repayment date by 12 months to December 15, 2026, and prioritizing interest payments during the grace period [1][45] - The National Development and Reform Commission is studying adjustments to the pilot scope of local government special bond projects to enhance investment efficiency and management [4][47] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, along with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, announced support for foreign institutional investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions [6][48] Primary Market - The net financing of non-financial corporate credit bonds was 560.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.63% week-on-week, with total issuance at 2,649.67 billion yuan, down 3.70% [7][49] - The proportion of issuers rated AA+ and above was 87.59%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week [7][49] - Nine non-financial corporate credit bonds were canceled or postponed this week, totaling 4.285 billion yuan, with a cumulative cancellation of 29 bonds amounting to 16.565 billion yuan over the past month [7][49] Secondary Market - Bond trading volume increased by 4% compared to the previous week, with credit bonds accounting for 15% of total trading [27][63] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell by 0.9 basis points to 1.83%, with overall yields on government and credit bonds declining [29][67] - City investment bond yields showed a downward trend across various ratings, with AAA-rated 1-year bonds yielding 1.75%, down 1 basis point [37][75] Rating Adjustments and Defaults - No rating adjustments occurred for non-financial corporate bonds last week [40][78] - One credit risk event was reported involving Vanke, with ongoing negotiations for the extension of its medium-term notes [40][78] - Two credit risk events had updates, involving Hongda Industrial Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd., both facing substantial defaults [41][79]

Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the responsibilities of central enterprises to better serve the national agenda and contribute to high-quality economic development, urging them to focus on core functions and enhance competitiveness [2] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of central enterprises in advancing new infrastructure construction and ensuring the self-sufficiency of industrial and supply chains, while also calling for deeper reforms in state-owned enterprises [3] - The National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Conference acknowledged the significant changes in the real estate market and emphasized the potential for further development, advocating for a new model of real estate development that meets public housing needs [4] Group 2: International News - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew by 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, with consumer spending showing strong growth at 3.5%, indicating robust economic expansion despite rising borrowing costs [5] - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 2.2% in October, significantly below the expected decline of 1.5%, although year-on-year growth remained at 4.7%, indicating resilience in manufacturing orders [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of strength with a notable entry of configuration funds, leading to a decline in yields for 10-year government bonds to 1.8350% and 10-year policy bank bonds to 1.898% [11] - The convertible bond market experienced adjustments, with major indices declining and a majority of individual bonds falling, indicating a mixed performance in the market [17] Group 4: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude up by approximately 0.64% to $58.38 per barrel, and natural gas prices surged over 10% [7] Group 5: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 593 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos [8] - The funding rates remained low, with DR001 and DR007 declining to 1.269% and 1.411% respectively, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's ultra-long-term bonds fell on Wednesday, pushing long-term yields to a historical high due to increasing market concerns over the government's debt financing stimulus plan [1] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 2.5 basis points to 3.45%, surpassing the record set earlier in the week [1] - The yield on 40-year government bonds increased by 1.5 basis points to 3.715% [1] - Long-term bond yields have been significantly rising since early November, driven by market speculation regarding the scale of Prime Minister Kishida's borrowing stimulus plan [1] Group 2: Government Debt Issuance - Japan is preparing to issue approximately 29.6 trillion yen (about 189.5 billion USD) in new government bonds for the fiscal year 2026 budget [1] - Short-term bond yields have also risen following indications from the Bank of Japan that it is ready to continue raising interest rates [1]

无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 另一方面，重磅会议持续提出要扩大内需、优化供给，培育并壮大国内市场，这一过程相对偏向长期。 从近期数据来看，消费数据有所增长，社零数据近几个月表现也较为亮眼，以上海为例，当地推出的消 费补贴叠加促销活动，在这些政策的带动下，本月社零数据预计增长4%。我们认为，只要补贴政策持 续推出，消费数据有望持续温和改善，但改善幅度预计不会特别显著。 综上，2026年债市政策支撑明确、通胀压力温和，十年国债ETF(511260)凭借久期优势、估值合理性、 交易便捷性等核心亮点，成为把握债市机遇的优质工具，建议延续"每调买基"策略，逢低布局分享长期 收益。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投 ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 23, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 593 billion yuan, matching the bidding amount [1] - On the same day, 1,353 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains ample, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing and operating below 1.27% [3] - The 7-day repurchase rate also showed a downward trend, while overnight quotes stabilized at 1.25%, indicating sufficient supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.66% [5] Bond Market Overview - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks are trading around 1.64%, unchanged from the previous day [8] - The yields on major interbank bonds show slight declines across various maturities, with 10-year government bonds yielding 1.7020%, down 2 basis points [10] Recent Developments in Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 600 billion yuan in 91-day discount treasury bonds on December 24 [18] - Local government bond issuance has exceeded 10 trillion yuan this year, with a remaining limit of 500 billion yuan for year-end [18] Global Macro Insights - Japan's new bond issuance for the fiscal year 2026 is expected to slightly exceed 28.6 trillion yen (approximately 182 billion USD) due to rising social welfare costs [16] - As of the first week of December, global tech companies have issued 428.3 billion USD in bonds for 2025, with U.S. firms accounting for 341.8 billion USD [16]

Core Insights - The "Technology Board" in the bond market has officially launched, with the scale of technology innovation bonds (科创债) exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan, marking a new era of rapid development for these bonds [7][8] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has significantly increased, with a total issuance of 3.492 billion yuan in May alone, and a notable recovery in November with 2.115 billion yuan issued [8][9] - The ecosystem surrounding technology innovation bonds is improving, with the introduction of various risk management tools and the launch of technology innovation bond ETFs, enhancing market liquidity and investor participation [10][11] Group 1: Market Development - As of now, the total scale of technology innovation bonds has reached 1.76 trillion yuan, with a diverse range of issuers including state-owned enterprises, financial institutions, and private companies [8][9] - The issuance structure has evolved, with 75% of bonds having a maturity of over three years, indicating a trend towards longer-term financing [9] - The cost of issuing technology innovation bonds is competitive, with three-year and five-year bonds being lower in cost compared to similar mid-term notes [9] Group 2: Ecosystem and Risk Management - The introduction of technology innovation bond ETFs has significantly increased market activity, with 24 ETFs collectively exceeding 250 billion yuan in scale [10] - Credit risk management tools are being developed, including credit risk mitigation certificates (CRMW) and the establishment of a technology innovation CDS index to help manage credit risks associated with these bonds [11] - The design of bond terms is becoming more diverse, with innovative structures such as convertible bonds and asset-backed bonds being introduced to enhance attractiveness [12][13] Group 3: Funding Utilization and Future Outlook - A significant portion of the funds raised through technology innovation bonds is currently used for debt repayment and working capital, with less than 15% allocated directly to technology innovation projects [14] - There is a call for a more balanced approach to funding, emphasizing support for core technology research and early-stage innovation, as well as the development of a multi-tiered financing toolbox [14][15] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued growth and innovation in the technology innovation bond market, with supportive policies expected to enhance the market's capacity and effectiveness [15]

美国财政部发行700亿美元5年期国债中标收益率3.747%，比投标截止时的发行前交易水平高出大约0.1 个基点。拍卖数据显示需求情况良好，一级交易商获配比例较低。基准5年期国债收益率当日仍上升约 2.5个基点，但已经远离盘中高点。 一级交易商获配8.8%，低于前六次拍卖的平均水平10.7%；直接投标人获配比例达到31.7%的高水平 （平均水平27.5%）。间接投标人获配比例为59.5%，略低于61.9%的平均值。 投标倍数2.35倍，之前六次平均2.36倍。 责任编辑：李桐 一级交易商获配8.8%，低于前六次拍卖的平均水平10.7%；直接投标人获配比例达到31.7%的高水平 （平均水平27.5%）。间接投标人获配比例为59.5%，略低于61.9%的平均值。 投标倍数2.35倍，之前六次平均2.36倍。 责任编辑：李桐 美国财政部发行700亿美元5年期国债中标收益率3.747%，比投标截止时的发行前交易水平高出大约0.1 个基点。拍卖数据显示需求情况良好，一级交易商获配比例较低。基准5年期国债收益率当日仍上升约 2.5个基点，但已经远离盘中高点。 ...

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Recent bond market fluctuations have increased due to intense fluctuations in monetary policy expectations, leading to frequent band - trading by trading funds and amplifying market volatility. The market's view is that funds are difficult to tighten, and the bond market is difficult to rise significantly. Trading funds can conduct band operations based on changes in monetary policy expectations, but the bond market has limited space until the factors restricting the entry of allocation funds subside [6][9]. - The main reason for the cautious attitude of long - term bond - allocating funds such as banks and insurance companies towards the 2026 bond market includes expectations of a "good start" in financial, inflation, and economic data at the beginning of the year, government bond issuance front - loading, insurance "good start" product structure, weakening bond profit - making effects, and the spread of credit risks in some industries [6][12]. - After entering 2026, attention can be paid to whether there are changes in bank behavior. On one hand, banks' indicator pressure eases, which may enhance their bond - allocating motivation; on the other hand, strong credit reserve at the beginning of the year may put pressure on the capital side and restrict their bond - allocating demand. Near the end of the year, changes in the certificate of deposit market can be observed [6][13]. Group 2: This Week's Fixed - Income Market Concerns Overseas Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the October durable goods orders monthly rate, and Japan will release the November unemployment rate [14][15]. Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 240 billion yuan, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 188 billion yuan, local bonds with a scale of 2.04 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds with a scale of about 50 billion yuan [15]. Group 3: Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase Initiation - Near the end of the year, the central bank initiated 14 - day reverse repurchases on Thursday and Friday, with a total reverse - repurchase investment of 657.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. After adding the 30 - billion - yuan maturity of central bank bills, the open - market operations had a net investment of 19 billion yuan. The money market showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price [17][18]. Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Last week, the bond market's optimistic sentiment increased, and with the central bank's support for the year - end, most bond market interest rates were repaired. The extremely long - term bonds fluctuated greatly, rising significantly and then falling back to the previous week's level. The yields of most periodic interest - rate bonds were repaired, with the 3 - year China Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds having the largest decline of about 5.5bp [32]. Group 4: High - Frequency Data Production End - Most of the operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.6% to 78.5%, the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased from 71.6% to 71.4%, the PTA operating rate remained flat at 73.8%, and the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased from 27.8% to 27.6%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early December narrowed, with a reading of - 11.3% [36]. Demand End - The year - on - year decline in the wholesale and retail sales of passenger car manufacturers both improved compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area remained large. The land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction area increased. The export indices SCFI and CCFI increased by 3.1% and 0.6% respectively [36]. Price End - Crude oil prices declined, while copper and aluminum prices increased. Coal prices were divided, with the thermal coal futures settlement price remaining flat and the coking coal futures settlement price increasing by 7.9%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index, cement index, and glass index changed by 0.7%, 0.4%, and - 1.1% respectively. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased rapidly to 3.13 million tons, with the futures price increasing by 1.4%. In the downstream consumer end, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.2% respectively [37].