晨报 工业硅 工业硅：需求萎靡库存高位，硅价弱势震荡 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅市场部分牌号价格继续下跌，下游采买相对积极，点价 成交情况转好，南方产区开工率缓慢上升中，目前华东通氧 553#硅在 8500-8900 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9300-9900 元/吨。期货端：昨日工业硅期货主力合约转 为 si2507，其收盘价 7865，-1.75%，日内延续增仓式下跌，增加 19275 手，总 数为 19.28 万手，成交额 93.10 亿元。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：云南开工已低于去年同期水准，内蒙古、宁夏、陕西和山东，在 产硅企硅企开工情绪萎靡,个别停产企业短期内暂无复工打算。盘面价格跌速加 快，仓单绝对价格低于 9000 以下，硅企失去价格优势，亏损生产中。下游少量 低价采购，多以盘面点价为主，市场去库较慢，大厂复产消息刺激下，同时结 合西南复产将近，工业硅全国供给预期增加，行业矛盾加深。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 需求端：多晶硅价格承压运行，当前 N 型致密料报价 37-39 元/千克，N 型 颗粒硅报价 34-37 元/千克，N 型复投 ...

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - With the approaching of the wet season, power - cost advantages in Yunnan and Sichuan are emerging, accelerating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises. The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is declining, and the large number of warrants exerts significant delivery pressure on the market, suppressing price increases. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for medium - to long - term operations [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 192,802 lots, a decrease of 596 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 29,280 lots, a decrease of 8,682 lots; the warrant volume on GZEE is 65,653 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 25 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,930 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.57%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On May 20, Tongwei Co., Ltd. held its 2024 annual general meeting. The management team emphasized confidence in the long - term development of the photovoltaic industry despite the current downturn. As the wet season approaches, power - cost advantages in Yunnan and Sichuan are emerging, accelerating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon industry is experiencing a continued decline in spot prices, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic due to weak downstream demand [1] Supply Side - The number of operational furnaces in the north and south has varied, but overall national production remains stable this month [1] - Supply conditions are not showing significant changes, indicating a stable supply environment [1] Demand Side - The operating rates of organic silicon monomer plants have remained relatively unchanged, maintaining steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - The production of polysilicon is stable, contributing to steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - Demand from aluminum alloy manufacturers for industrial silicon is based on needs, with no growth observed in the overall demand from the three major downstream sectors [1] Price Trends - Spot prices have fallen below 8,000 yuan per ton, exerting significant pressure on the market [1] - Organic silicon monomer plants previously saw a slight price increase due to improved downstream demand, but are currently focused on fulfilling prior orders, maintaining price stability [1] - Polysilicon prices have remained flat [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, and the industrial silicon market is still in a downward trend, showing weak fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures, si2506, was 7910, down 2.34%, with 10324 hands reduced during the day, a total of 64,700 hands, and a turnover of 5.116 billion yuan [1] Supply - Northern large factories will continue to resume production in the near future. It is expected that the eastern production area will gradually resume production to 40 submerged arc furnaces. Coupled with the fact that some southern factories are ready to start furnaces, the market supply is expected to increase significantly next month, which is obviously negative for the current price [1] Demand - The price of polysilicon is stable, and the game between upstream and downstream continues to deepen. The price expectation divergence intensifies. At present, the transaction price of some polysilicon has fallen below the cost line. The price - concession willingness of silicon material enterprises is limited, but due to inventory pressure, downstream still has the bargaining initiative. The mainstream price of silicone DMC remains stable, and manufacturers focus on shipment. The short - term transaction center will still remain in the low - price range, and the subsequent actual transaction of DMC is expected to be maintained at 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton. Recently, with production cuts, the inventory of silicone has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand for industrial silicon remains stable. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, but the enterprise profit continues to narrow, the shipment is average, and production is under pressure [1] Inventory - On May 20, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,246 hands, an increase of 152 hands, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remained at a high level [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For industrial silicon: Unilateral - Sell on rallies; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Options - None [3][4] - For polysilicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Futures - spot - None; Options - None [8] 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, with potential supply increases from the resumption of production in the northwest and southwest, lackluster consumption, and declining exports [3] - The fundamentals of polysilicon are also weak. With the increase in the number of warehouse receipts, the delivery game is weakening, and the market is expected to run weakly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2505 opened at 8080 yuan/ton and closed at 7910 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (-2.53%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 64706 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9400 - 10000 (-150) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest continued to decline [1] - In April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a 2% increase month - on - month and a 9% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,700 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year. In April 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was 500 tons, a 70% decrease month - on - month and an 83% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5200 tons, a 43% decrease year - on - year [1] Consumption End - The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed different trends. The demand for raw rubber downstream increased rapidly, and the transaction was good, while the overall transaction of D4 was average due to weak demand for room - temperature rubber, and the high - end price declined slightly [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell, opening at 36020 yuan/ton and closing at 35625 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 70536 (63062 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165519 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, and N - type silicon was 36.00 - 39.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25000 tons, a 2.27% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a 7.22% increase month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 21400 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.42GW, a 0.50% increase month - on - month [6] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [7]

工业硅日报 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought significant delivery pressure to the market, severely suppressing price increases. Overall, supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. For medium - and long - term operations, a short - selling approach is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan; the main contract position is 155038 lots, an increase of 16616 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20598 lots, an increase of 1868 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 30 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly output is 335750 tons, an increase of 46400 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 59.9 tons (weekly), an increase of 0.3 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 3.92 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18176.9 tons, an increase of 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.57%, a decrease of 0.48%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 165.5 tons, an increase of 10.3 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On May 12, 2025, Red Sun New Energy officially signed an agreement with a Nigerian group for the construction of a 600MW photovoltaic module factory in Kano State. It is the first local photovoltaic module production line in Nigeria and an important practice of Chinese enterprises promoting African energy transformation through technology output. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. As the wet season approaches in Yunnan and Sichuan, the electricity price cost advantage is emerging, stimulating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises [2]