Core Viewpoint - The ongoing subsidy war primarily highlights the competition between Alibaba and Meituan, but the instant retail market will not be a duopoly, maintaining a tripartite structure with JD.com also playing a significant role [25]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The subsidy battle has expanded beyond food delivery to include daily retail, with retailers like Hong Zhen experiencing a surge in orders due to aggressive promotions from platforms like Meituan and Ele.me [5][11]. - On July 18, the State Administration for Market Regulation held talks with Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com, urging them to comply with various laws and regulations, which may lead to a more restrained competitive environment [8][11]. - The market has seen a significant increase in non-food delivery orders, with Meituan reporting over 200 million non-food orders in July, indicating a shift towards a broader range of instant retail products [11][12]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Meituan has been actively expanding its instant retail strategy, aiming to have over 100,000 flash warehouses by 2027, with a projected market size of 200 billion yuan [15]. - Retailers like Hong Zhen are adapting to the changing landscape by increasing their inventory and diversifying their product offerings to include a wide range of daily necessities [19][20]. - The competition among the three giants is intensifying, with each platform striving to capture a larger share of the instant retail market, which is expected to be more frequent and potentially more profitable than food delivery alone [11][26]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly using delivery platforms for a variety of products beyond food, such as personal care items and electronics, driven by substantial discounts and promotions [10][11]. - The average delivery time for all orders has improved, with Meituan reporting an average delivery time of 34 minutes, enhancing customer satisfaction and encouraging more frequent purchases [11].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition among food delivery platforms is expected to continue, with companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com engaging in a battle for market share and consumer mindshare in the instant retail sector [1][7][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent regulatory discussions have led to a reduction in aggressive discounting strategies, but platforms are unlikely to abandon their subsidy-driven market acquisition tactics [1][4] - Meituan is under pressure to maintain its market share, which has historically been over 70%, as competitors intensify their efforts in the food delivery space [5][17] - The competition is not just about food delivery but extends to the broader instant retail market, which is seen as a critical hub for connecting high-frequency delivery needs with e-commerce [2][9] Group 2: Strategic Responses - Alibaba aims to leverage the current competition to build a comprehensive consumer platform, integrating food delivery with its e-commerce operations [7][20] - JD.com has taken a different approach by focusing on enhancing rider benefits rather than engaging in aggressive subsidies, aiming to build a brand image centered on service and quality [7][20] - The competition is expected to evolve into a long-term battle for consumer loyalty and market positioning, with each platform needing to balance various stakeholder interests [13][16] Group 3: Financial Implications - The intense competition has led to concerns about profitability, as the cost of subsidies and the pressure on margins could harm smaller businesses and overall market health [8][13] - Instant retail is projected to grow significantly, with Meituan's market share in this sector expected to increase, despite the challenges posed by competition [11][12] - The market for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) is substantial, and the integration of instant retail with traditional e-commerce could unlock new revenue streams for platforms [10][11] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The success of instant retail hinges on consumer mindset, which is currently fragmented, making it essential for platforms to create a compelling value proposition to attract and retain users [10][12] - The delivery experience is critical, as consumer expectations for speed and efficiency continue to rise, necessitating a focus on operational excellence [13][16] - Platforms must navigate the delicate balance of maintaining consumer satisfaction while managing costs and profitability in a highly competitive environment [13][16]

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 即时零售补贴加大拖累短期利润，估值触底，推荐阿里>京东>美团 日单持续突破。3 季度即时零售平台加大补贴力度，继 7 月 5 日美团即时 零售宣布当日订单突破 1.2 亿（其中餐饮超 1 亿单）、7 月 7 日淘宝闪购日 订单超 8000 万（其中非餐饮订单 1300 万）后，7 月 12 日美团即时零售订 单突破 1.5 亿。参考过去 5 年日单均值/峰值比例下降趋势，考虑到本次峰 值突破相比往年花费更高的补贴投入，我们按美团外卖当季日均单量/峰 值比例约 65%，估算 2 季度美团即时零售/淘宝闪购（含饿了么）/京东外 卖 日 均 单 量 分 别 为 7700/5500/1100 万 单 ， 3 季 度 或 分 别 达 到 8800/6500/1800 万单。 长期来看，补贴收窄后单量稳定及 AOV 趋势仍有不确定性，短期补贴持 续加大将拖累今年内的利润表现： 2025 年 7 月 21 日 互联网行业 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the intense competition in the "delivery battle" among major platforms, reflecting the rapid evolution of the instant retail industry driven by consumer demand for "immediate satisfaction" [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - Instant retail penetration in urban China is projected to rise from 26% in 2020 to 50% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% [4] - The market has shifted from community group buying and horizontal platforms to front warehouse models and self-operated offline retailers, with front warehouse models leading growth at 30% [5][19] - The front warehouse model has transformed consumer shopping expectations, evolving from mere delivery to a combination of price, efficiency, and quality [6][14] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The primary consumers of the front warehouse model are childless families (single, young couples, and adults under 45), whose consumption patterns align well with the model's characteristics of speed and convenience [9][17] - High-frequency essential goods dominate the front warehouse model, including ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, frozen foods, fast-moving consumer goods, and fresh produce [13][12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Key players in the front warehouse market include Pupu Grocery, Dingdong Maicai, and Xiaoxiang Supermarket, with the latter experiencing significant market share growth due to effective strategies [12][14] - Major competitors like Meituan and Alibaba are intensifying their marketing efforts and resource allocation, leading to a complex competitive environment [19][20] - The future growth of the front warehouse model will depend on the ongoing capital and resource competition among industry giants [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the instant retail industry, projecting a significant growth potential with a market size expected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2024 to 2029 [4][46]. Core Insights - Instant retail is reshaping the consumption ecosystem by focusing on "instant demand" scenarios, providing a unique supply and fulfillment system that emphasizes a delivery time of 30 minutes to 2 hours, distinguishing it from traditional e-commerce models [4][18]. - The competition among major platforms such as Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is intensifying, with each leveraging their unique strengths to capture market share in the instant retail space [4][6]. - The report highlights that the instant retail market is expected to expand significantly, driven by changing consumer habits, technological advancements, and supportive policies [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Transformation - Instant retail is characterized by its ability to meet immediate consumer needs through a combination of online ordering and local fulfillment, creating a closed-loop system that enhances efficiency [18][19]. - The market for instant retail is projected to grow from 650 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4][43]. 2. Competitive Landscape - Major players are competing across multiple dimensions, including pricing, quality, and fulfillment efficiency, with a shift from price wars to a focus on quality and user experience [4][6]. - Meituan leads the market with a well-established rider network and merchant ecosystem, while Alibaba and JD.com are rapidly expanding their instant retail capabilities through strategic integrations and user engagement initiatives [4][51]. 3. Platform Strategies - Meituan's competitive edge lies in its extensive rider network and digital operations, achieving over 1.5 billion orders as of July 2025 [4][51]. - Alibaba's integration of Ele.me and its main platform has resulted in rapid user conversion, with over 80 million orders within a short period [4][51]. - JD.com is leveraging its logistics and supply chain advantages to expand its instant delivery services, achieving significant order volumes shortly after launching its delivery service [4][51]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of user retention and the need for platforms to build strong supply chain capabilities and quality merchant offerings to sustain growth in the long term [5][6]. - The shift towards high-frequency consumption scenarios is expected to drive cross-selling opportunities, enhancing overall platform engagement and user activity [5][6].

Industry Environment - Chinese companies' overseas expansion has shifted from "business supplement" to "business necessity," emphasizing the importance of local adaptation, brand building, and talent development [2] - The global trade environment remains tense, particularly affecting the solar industry, with a significant decline in exports to the U.S. and Europe, while Southeast Asia shows growth in component exports [3][4] - The cultural products sector is experiencing rapid growth in overseas markets, with digital content and gaming becoming key areas for international competitiveness [5] - The food and beverage market in Indonesia and Thailand shows strong consumer demand, with significant market sizes of nearly $50 billion and $40 billion respectively [6] - The gaming and esports industry is rapidly developing, with policies supporting international expansion and a notable increase in overseas sales revenue [7] Key Brand Dynamics - LABUBU, a trendy toy IP, exemplifies the successful global expansion of Chinese creative products, with significant growth in overseas markets [15] - iFLYTEK has established a global presence with its AI products, achieving substantial revenue growth and expanding its international market reach [17] - BlueFocus plans to go public in Hong Kong, focusing on AI development and international business expansion, despite low profit margins [18] - BYD has seen remarkable sales growth in Europe and Asia, surpassing Tesla in several markets, showcasing its strong global competitiveness [19] - Junlebao is enhancing its international image and product quality to address challenges in the dairy industry as it expands overseas [21] - Anjoy Foods is launching an IPO to optimize its supply chain and expand its global footprint, with a significant market share in the frozen food sector [22] - Haitian Flavor Industry's IPO faced challenges due to market concerns over its revenue structure, highlighting the need for successful overseas market penetration [23] - Meituan is expanding its instant retail strategy internationally, leveraging its existing infrastructure and local partnerships to enhance its global presence [26] - YI Technology has achieved significant market share in the global camera industry through innovation and a strong international strategy [27]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to face significant pressure on profits due to intensified competition in the food delivery and instant retail sectors, despite an increase in order volume. Group 1: Financial Projections - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates adjusted net profit to be 7.7 billion yuan, with revenue expected to grow by 13% year-on-year to 92.9 billion yuan, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 8.3% [1] - The company's core local business operating profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 10.2 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 15.2% [1] - The overall operating profit margin for the core local business is expected to decrease to 12.6% for the full year, with a total operating profit of 35.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 33% year-on-year decline [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The food delivery market is experiencing heightened competition, particularly with competitors like JD.com and Taobao launching aggressive subsidy campaigns, which have led to a significant increase in order volume [1] - The company has responded to competition by implementing various promotional strategies, including large consumer coupons and new product offerings, which have resulted in a 14% year-on-year increase in food delivery order volume for Q2 2025 [1] - Instant retail orders have also surged, with peak order volume reaching 150 million, driven by the company's participation in promotional events [2] Group 3: New Business Developments - The company has decided to further scale back its Meituan Youxuan business, leading to a reduction in expected losses for new businesses from 10.4 billion yuan to 6.7 billion yuan for the year [2] - Despite the reduction in losses, the revenue growth forecast for new businesses has been adjusted down to 10% due to limited contributions from overseas expansion and the closure of operations in many regions [2] Group 4: Valuation Adjustments - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 30% and 19% respectively, now projecting 28.6 billion yuan and 43.8 billion yuan [2] - The target price has been lowered by 12.4% to 155 HKD, reflecting a 20 times adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a potential upside of 23.5% [2]

昨天，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业，要求进一步规范促销行为，理性参与竞 争。 市场监管总局约谈三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华人民共和国电子商务法》《中华人 民共和国反不正当竞争法》《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法规规定，严格落实主体责任，进一 步规范促销行为，理性参与竞争，共同构建消费者、商家、外卖骑手和平台企业等多方共赢的良好生 态，促进餐饮服务行业规范健康持续发展。 最近几个周末，点外卖仿佛成了周末"全民运动"。 据三家平台披露的周末数据，美团单日订单量突破1.5亿单，淘宝闪购达到8000万单，而京东外卖在近 期未公布相关数据，但在"618"活动时透露外卖日订单量突破2500万。这意味着，中国外卖行业的单日 总单量已经从年初的1亿单增长至约2.5亿单。一场围绕中国人餐桌的外卖"三国杀"正硝烟四起。 ■解析 外卖进入 "百亿对决"时代 "战况"升级的节点，可追溯至今年6月30日。当天，阿里确立发起淘宝闪购的百日增长计划，核心策略 是在每周六冲单。 在更早的2月，京东官宣进军外卖市场，0佣金招募商家，就连刘强东都下场送外卖。如今，美团推出0 元券、0.1秒杀等大量补贴活动， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current battle in instant retail, particularly in food delivery, is characterized by a significant increase in subsidies from major platforms, leading to record-high order volumes. However, the underlying reality suggests that the competition is not merely about subsidy scale but rather about the foundational infrastructure capabilities that determine the ultimate victor [3][6][15]. Group 1: Key Factors for Success - The decisive factors in the current food delivery war are fulfillment and supply capabilities, which have become the strongest leverage points [7]. - Recent order data shows that JD's food delivery surpassed 25 million orders last month, while Meituan's peak order volume increased from 90 million to 150 million within a short period, indicating a significant growth potential despite the high subsidy environment [8][9][10]. - Meituan's return on investment (ROI) from subsidies appears to be the highest among the three major platforms, suggesting that its operational efficiency is superior [10][11]. Group 2: Misconceptions in the Market - The misconception that food delivery is primarily a volume-driven business is challenged by the reality that fulfillment and supply capabilities are critical to success. The dynamics of local, non-standardized transactions in food delivery differ significantly from traditional retail [16][19]. - The historical pattern of subsidy wars in various sectors indicates that attracting users through subsidies often leads to low conversion rates and customer lifetime value (LTV), as these users are typically price-sensitive rather than genuinely interested in the service [27][28]. Group 3: The Dangers of Continuous Subsidy Wars - The ongoing subsidy wars are unsustainable and could lead to market distortions, undermining the health of the instant delivery ecosystem. The focus should shift from mere data competition to fostering a healthy development of the entire market [24][28][29]. - The two primary motivations for e-commerce platforms engaging in food delivery are to leverage high-frequency dining demand to drive low-frequency retail demand and to build a comprehensive instant delivery system. However, relying on strong subsidies is not a viable strategy for achieving these goals [25][26].

在最新一次冲单后，美团即时零售达到1.5亿订单，淘宝闪购达到8000万订单，再加上京东最后一次公布的2500万订单，总计日单量峰值或将近2.5亿，是 2024年的2倍以上。 为详细拆解近半年来外卖混战的底层逻辑，7月18日，壹览商业正式发布2025《外卖与即时零售双擎竞速，美团、京东与阿里战略布局全解析报告》（下 简称《报告》）。《报告》指出，这场以外卖为名义而发起的商业竞争，无论各方是主动发起还是被动加入，其背后是针对因外卖基础设施完善而衍生的 庞大的即时零售市场的争夺。 如今，三方都认为即时零售是各自的核心增量业务，让这场竞争变得更加直接、激烈。显然，这将是一场长期的竞争，除了"弹药"的充足与否，更多是考 验各方的耐心、细心和解决问题的决心。 《报告》认为，当前，美团、京东与阿里正面临新势力对各自传统业务的蚕食、优势领域用户增长乏力和利润增长空间压缩的三重冲击。三方均积极寻找 新的增长点并不约而同地将即时零售视作各自的核心增长方向，依托外卖和即时零售高频的特点实现自身各业态之间的协同，盘活全局已成为三家的共 识。 而美团近年来则面临着典型的"增长焦虑"：行业渗透率趋稳，用户天花板已现。在存量市场博弈中，美 ...