即时零售系列更新 20250611 摘要 美团闪购在 2025 年 6 月至 9 月核心旺季集中补贴，旨在稳定市场份额， 抓住核心用户，补贴策略包括国补加码、全网同价以及传统红包，但红 包金额较小，控制在 4 元以下。 美团即时零售自营业务占比极小（<5%），未来 3-5 年内不会成为核心 方向。自营主要集中在外卖和闪电仓，采用加盟为主的模式，酒水品类 因供应链可控、毛利高且天花板高，成为自营重点。 即时零售成功的关键在于线下供给和运力是否充足，构成核心护城河。 价格并非主要竞争点，满足即时性需求是核心，但长期来看，价格因素 的重要性将提升。 美团闪购通过 KA 客户（30%-40%占比）和小商家结合，实现供给多样 化。小型夫妻店提供广泛覆盖，闪电仓提升供给效率，通过大数据分析 需求差异，实现精准匹配和批量覆盖。 闪电仓数量持续增长，目前约 1 万家，95%为加盟店。平台提供选址、 选品和营销建议，但闪电仓因纯线上运营，盈亏平衡线较高，约 300 单。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）美团闪购在二季度开始发力补贴的具体原因是什么？主要补 贴在哪些地方？ 美团闪购在今年（2025 年）二季度开始发力补贴有两个主要背 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨啤酒 [Table_Title] "每食每刻"系列之（十三）：即时零售，啤酒 消费的"硬折扣" %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 依托于互联网发展，具有"快"、"近"、"多"特征的即时零售业务近年来得到高速发展，酒小 二、歪马送酒等酒水垂直类即时零售平台渐渐走入消费者生活，2025 年酒小二/歪马送酒门店 预计已突破 2000/1400 家。本文主要探讨酒水即时零售平台运营模式、单店模型及其为啤酒行 业带来的变化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title "每食每刻"系列之（十三）：即时零售，啤酒 2] 消费的"硬折扣" [Table_Summary2] 中国酒水消费线上化率不断提升 中国饮酒文化源远流长， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the instant retail industry Core Insights - Instant retail is defined as a consumption model based on an instant delivery system, emphasizing "online ordering, delivery within 30 minutes," allowing consumers to quickly obtain needed products [7][8] - The market size of China's instant retail reached 650 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 28.89%, outpacing the growth of online retail by 17.89 percentage points [17][19] - By 2030, the instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan [19] Summary by Sections 1. Instant Retail Overview - Instant retail activates "scene consumption," meeting immediate needs, contrasting with traditional retail's reliance on "demand forecasting" [7][8] - The development of instant retail can be traced back to the emergence of food delivery platforms a decade ago, evolving into a high-speed growth phase post-2015 with platforms like Meituan and JD Daojia [11][13] 2. Background of Instant Retail's Rise - Consumer demand has shifted towards faster delivery, with over 50% of post-95 consumers wanting same-day or even within-hours delivery [24][27] - The Z generation's market share surged from 30% in 2020 to 59%, driving a shift towards "emotional value consumption" [30] - Technological advancements, including the integration of the internet and big data, support the growth of instant retail [32] 3. Reshaping of Consumption Scenarios - Instant retail has expanded from food delivery to encompass a wide range of products, including fresh produce, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [43][44] - New consumption scenarios have emerged, such as "hot pot delivery" and "instant meal kits," significantly reducing food waste [45] - Instant retail platforms have partnered with pharmacies to provide 24-hour medicine delivery services across over 300 cities [47] 4. Business Models of Instant Retail - Platform-based instant retail companies leverage various methods to acquire traffic, such as Meituan's integration with its food delivery service [60] - The front warehouse model is employed to ensure rapid response to consumer orders, particularly in densely populated areas [63] - The warehouse-store integration model enhances quality consumption by combining online and offline sales [71] 5. Competitive Landscape of Instant Retail - The market is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with Meituan leading with a 35% market share and over 10 million daily orders [79] - Major platforms have built strong supply chain systems and efficient delivery networks, enhancing their competitive edge [81][82] 6. Challenges Facing Instant Retail - Cost control is a significant challenge, with high warehousing and delivery costs impacting profitability [95] - Supply chain stability is crucial, as demand fluctuations can lead to supply interruptions [97] 7. Future Trends in Instant Retail - Instant retail platforms are expected to deepen service scenarios, such as offering laundry pickup and delivery services [109] - The integration of AI and IoT technologies will enhance operational efficiency and product quality assurance [118][119] 8. Development Recommendations - Companies should invest in AI and IoT technologies to optimize delivery routes and ensure product quality [131][132] - Strengthening partnerships with local producers and wholesalers can create a more agile supply chain [133]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the transformation of the 618 shopping festival, where instant retail has become a strategic necessity for major platforms like Meituan, JD.com, and Taobao, indicating a shift from bulk purchasing to immediate satisfaction among consumers [1][2] - Instant retail is evolving into a new competitive dimension, extending beyond food delivery to include supermarkets, electronics, and beauty products, with predictions that the market size will exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025, with non-food categories accounting for over 60% [2][3] - The role of third-party delivery services, exemplified by SF Same City, is becoming crucial as they provide comprehensive support for brands and platforms, enhancing delivery efficiency and meeting the growing demand for instant retail [1][4] Group 2 - SF Same City has established itself as a preferred partner for leading brands, with over 7,500 new key account collaborations planned for 2024, providing one-stop delivery solutions across various platforms [3][4] - The company’s neutral positioning allows it to serve as a flexible delivery partner for both platforms with and without their own logistics, supporting diverse scenarios such as live streaming and private domain e-commerce [4][5] - SF Same City is leveraging big data and AI scheduling to create tailored delivery solutions, enhancing operational efficiency and responsiveness during peak periods, with a significant increase in the deployment of unmanned delivery vehicles [5][6]

近日，即时零售市场迎来了一场激烈的竞争。京东"自营秒送"业务上线，美团针锋相对推出即时零售品 牌"美团闪购"。紧接着，淘宝将"小时达"升级为"淘宝闪购"，依托饿了么的运力网络，全面加速布局即 时零售市场。 所谓"即时零售"，是为了满足消费者"即买即得"的需求，基于即时配送体系的消费模式，强调"线上下 单，30分钟送达"。这种需求在年轻群体中持续增长，比如咨询机构埃森哲发布的《聚焦中国95后消费 群体》指出，超过50%的"95后"希望在购物当天即可收到商品，"速度"成为影响年轻一代消费决策的重 要因素。 对于平台而言，线上消费市场流量红利趋于饱和，他们必须寻找新的增量。因此，借助各自的外卖配送 体系，拓展外卖或快递的边界，除了餐饮和生鲜之外，将药品、日用品、服饰、数码产品等品类也纳 入"即点即送"的范围。因此，各家平台开始争夺这一增量业务，但从消费市场而言，可能更多的是存量 替代。 数字经济带来更高的效率以及更多的新商业模式，推动商业创新与革命，这场革命的核心是效率，即能 够以更低的成本更快的速度将商品送到客户手中，并且给消费者无数种选择权。这种改变极大促进了消 费并提高了消费体验和商业红利，降低了消费者生活成 ...

Core Insights - Instant retail is experiencing rapid growth, significantly outpacing traditional retail and online sales, with a projected growth rate of over three times that of overall retail sales in China for 2024 [1][4] - The shift towards instant retail reflects changing consumer behaviors, particularly among younger demographics who prioritize immediate gratification over bulk purchasing [7][9] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with platforms like Meituan and Ele.me integrating fragmented supply chains to enhance service offerings and reduce costs [6][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Instant retail has shown strong growth, with a notable increase in online retail sales by 7.2% year-on-year, while instant retail is projected to grow at a rate exceeding 21% [1][4] - The market is witnessing a shift from traditional e-commerce to instant retail, which is affecting the sales of established players like JD.com and Alibaba [10][11] - The integration of local supply chains and the use of data analytics are enabling instant retail platforms to optimize inventory and reduce operational costs [6][14] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers, particularly those aged 35 and below, are driving the demand for instant retail, with over 70% of instant retail users falling into this age group [9][10] - The trend indicates a decline in bulk purchasing behavior, with consumers increasingly favoring immediate consumption and convenience [7][9] - Instant retail is becoming a preferred choice for various product categories, including food, beverages, and personal care items, reflecting a broader shift in consumer preferences [14][15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying, with major players investing heavily in subsidies to capture market share, leading to potential disruptions in pricing and service quality [13][15] - Brands are increasingly recognizing the importance of participating in instant retail to avoid missing out on market opportunities, as it represents a redistribution of existing consumer traffic [11][14] - The operational strategies of instant retail players are evolving, focusing on expanding product categories and developing private labels to enhance competitiveness [4][6]

Group 1 - The consumption market during the Dragon Boat Festival remains strong, with instant retail emerging as a significant highlight of holiday consumption [1] - Multiple platforms have increased subsidy efforts to further promote instant retail across various scenarios, leading to a surge in orders for multiple categories [1] - Data from SF Express shows significant year-on-year growth in various categories, including beverages, fast food, and maternal and child products during the holiday [1] Group 2 - JD Qixian reports a rise in short-distance travel demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, with consumers favoring "light travel" and using instant retail platforms for convenient purchases [2] - Taobao Flash Purchase data indicates a 220% increase in zongzi sales compared to the previous week, driven by the overlap of the holiday and the college entrance examination season [2] - The instant retail market is recognized for its vast growth potential, with a projected scale exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030 and a CAGR of approximately 20% over the next five years [2] Group 3 - New tea and coffee categories have become key focus areas for platform subsidies, with significant increases in order volumes for leading beverage brands during the holiday [3] - The competition among instant delivery platforms has intensified, with major players like Taobao, JD, and Meituan engaging in aggressive promotional activities [3] - Instant retail is becoming a new growth point in the retail industry, driven by its service model that meets consumer demands for timeliness and convenience [3]

作者︱懂酒哥 当"线上下单，30分钟达"杀入618，原本疲于"凑满减""付尾款"的消费者突然感到了久违的轻松。 今年618，美团首次出战。5月28日至6月18日，美团闪购推出"万瓶1499元飞天茅台限时抢"活动，用户只需在美团APP搜索"美团618"进入活动页面即可参 与。此外，该平台还向全体消费者发放618元神券包，用于外卖和闪购。 美团618 美团闪购 30分钟好货到手 *以实际送达时间为 活动规则 先预约再抢购 - 您可点击下方商品卡片 [ 立即预约 ] 并留意短信通知 预约后活动期内每天上午10:00开启抢购,当天11:00开启次日预约。 活动时间 第二轮抢购 第一轮抢购 第三轮抢购 5月28日-6月1日 6月15日-6月18日 6月4日-6月9日 1499元飞天茅台限时抢 茅台 飞天 酱香型白酒53度 500ml 【需预约购买】 美团名酒行 预约后 6月5日 10:00 可抢 假一赔十 即时零售正以"分钟级配送"重塑酒水消费格局，或将成为白酒行业破解库存高压与价格体系困局的关键转折点。 从深夜小酌，到好友小聚，再到露营野餐，即时配送正成为酒水消费的"利器"。 根据美团闪购发布的618首日战报，24小 ...

Overall Performance - The company's performance exceeded expectations with Q1 2025 revenue of 86.6 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 18%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 85.4 billion CNY [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 11.2 billion CNY, exceeding the consensus estimate of 9.9 billion CNY, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 13.0%, up from 9.5% in Q1 2024 [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 10.9 billion CNY, also above the consensus estimate of 9.7 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.6%, compared to 10.2% in Q1 2024 [1] Core Local Business - Core local business revenue for Q1 2025 was 64.3 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 17.8%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 63.5 billion CNY [1] - Adjusted operating profit for this segment was 13.5 billion CNY, surpassing the consensus estimate of 12.2 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 21%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.2 percentage points [1] Delivery Business - The delivery segment is expected to see high single-digit growth in order volume, with improved user engagement and frequency of purchases [1] - The company plans to invest 100 billion CNY over the next three years to promote high-quality development in the industry [1] Flash Purchase - Flash purchase orders are projected to grow approximately 30% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with over 500 million transaction users and a 60% increase in non-food orders [2] - The segment is expected to achieve profitability in Q1 2025 due to effective brand advertising and operational efficiencies [2] In-store Travel and Accommodation - The in-store travel and accommodation segment saw a GTV growth of over 30% year-over-year in Q1 2025 [3] - Revenue growth is expected to lag behind GTV growth due to advertising impacts and lower penetration in lower-tier cities [3] New Business - New business revenue reached 22.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 19%, aligning with Bloomberg's consensus estimate [4] - The company is actively expanding overseas, with plans to invest 1 billion USD in Brazil over the next five years [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings per share forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.04, 7.20, and 8.09 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [4] - The company maintains a target price of 172.90 HKD, with a reasonable valuation of 1,056.4 billion HKD [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the live e-commerce sector in China is experiencing significant growth, with a GMV of 1.98 trillion yuan in the first nine months of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.6% [1] - The live e-commerce accounted for 18.3% of the total online retail sales of 10.8 trillion yuan and 21.9% of the physical online retail sales of 904.35 billion yuan [1] - The growth rate of live e-commerce GMV is expected to be around 35-40% for the year, driven by emerging channels such as short video feeds, shelves, and search, rather than solely by live streaming [1][5] Group 2 - Kuaishou's GMV for the first half of 2023 was 490.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.8%, and the GMV from live streaming is projected to grow at a rate of 15-20% for the year [3][5] - The growth of live e-commerce is anticipated to normalize, with the live streaming channel's growth rate expected to decline to around 10% as platforms shift focus to brand self-broadcasting [5][6] - The broader live e-commerce market, including shelf models, is expected to increase its market share to 30% over the next 3-5 years, with a potential market size of approximately 7 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The live e-commerce model is characterized by high operational costs, making it less favorable for small and medium-sized businesses, while the shelf model is seen as more accommodating for these merchants [7] - Instant retail, although not included in physical online retail statistics, is identified as a significant growth market for the next seven years [7]