在盈利视角下，在"反内卷"政策推动下，PPI有望持续回升，企业盈利也将不断修复。综合当前市场预 期，2026年全A非金融归母净利润同比增速预计在10%至14%。在估值端，2026年A股具备较大提升潜 力，叠加流动性宽松及潜在的财政扩张预期，市场整体空间依然乐观。 2025年微观层面的流动性改善为股市注入了重要动能，这一逻辑在2026年的重要性依旧，但资金结构或 将出现变化： 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，产业领域潜在催化因素丰富，流动性重要增量有望来自居民存款搬 家。我们认为，伴随PPI回升，企业盈利将持续修复，A股牛市格局有望延续，市场估值仍具备可观的 提升空间。节奏层面，当前可积极布局以应对可能前置的春季躁动，从中期维度来看，明年上半年将是 较好的行情窗口。 2025年，A股走势大致可划分为两个阶段，核心逻辑均为科技产业引领，叠加政策端与流动性的共振， 其中7至9月居民存款搬家与杠杆资金注入共同推动市场走出一轮主升浪。2026年，产业催化将持续增 多，新质生产力领域"DeepSeek时刻"有望持续涌现，新兴产业景气度将延续，与此同时货币宽松环境大 概率维持，增量流动性值得期待。 从当前存款市场格局 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that "technological innovation + anti-involution" will be the two main investment themes for 2026, with expectations of a bullish A-share market driven by improving corporate profits and liquidity from resident deposit migration [2][4] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a significant increase in non-financial net profit growth, projected at 10% to 14% year-on-year for 2026, supported by a recovering Producer Price Index (PPI) and favorable liquidity conditions [2][3] - The liquidity structure is expected to change, with a notable increase in the proportion of A-share financing balance to circulating market value, which is currently at 2.58%, indicating a potential for further market growth [3] Group 2 - The investment focus for 2026 will lean towards growth sectors, particularly in technology and new energy, as the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological advancement and economic transformation [4] - Key investment opportunities will include sectors with price increase expectations and cyclical benefits, such as industrial metals, basic chemicals, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by policy and demand recovery [4] - The market is expected to stabilize with reduced volatility, supported by regulatory measures encouraging long-term capital investment and the maturation of high-interest deposit products [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [57] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4329.8 per ounce, a 2.42% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.3% increase to 1053 tons. The Fed's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% is expected to support gold prices in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4] - Industrial Metals: The fundamentals for copper are tightening, and there is an optimistic outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, the SHFE copper futures contract rose 1.4% to 94080 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 163,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. The LME copper inventory stood at 165,900 tons. The tightening supply of copper is expected to drive prices higher [5][6] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum futures contract fell 0.9% to $2875 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain stable [6] - Tin: The SHFE tin futures contract increased by 4.9% to 333,000 yuan/ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and export regulations in Indonesia are expected to tighten the market further [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on the long-term investment in gold [4][5] Industrial Metals - Copper: The market is experiencing tightening supply, with a recommendation to focus on the copper sector due to expected price increases [6] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to maintain high levels of volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Tin: Supply constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to potential price increases [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Recommended stock is Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Copper: Recommended stock is Luoyang Molybdenum - Aluminum: Recommended stock is Tianshan Aluminum [7]

- The report indicates that the market is on the edge of an upward trend signal, with the core observation indicator being whether the profitability effect is positive. The current trend line of the WIND All A Index is around 6262 points, and the closing price is at 6264 points, just on the verge of turning positive[2][5][7] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the moving averages is 4.03%, significantly greater than the absolute value of 3%, indicating that the market has returned to an upward trend pattern[2][5][6] - The industry trend allocation model shows that the mid-term distress reversal expectation model signals attention to liquor and real estate; the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on consumer electronics and domestic computing power. The industry trend model shows that the engineering machinery/industrial metals/energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - From the valuation indicators, the PE of the WIND All A Index is around the 80th percentile, which is a medium level, and the PB is around the 50th percentile, which is a relatively low level. Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, it is recommended that absolute return products with the WIND All A as the main stock allocation should have a position of 60%[5][7][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a strong performance in metal prices, particularly in precious metals [5]. - It notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market significantly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 79.60% [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals due to low central bank gold reserves in China and a shift in monetary policy [5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.84% during the week [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points [6]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 1.50%, while aluminum prices dropped by 4.72% [12]. Price Changes and Industry Analysis - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices down by 0.83% and aluminum prices down by 4.72% [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for copper remains strong, with a current social inventory of 163,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase [34]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are tightening, with a forecast for long-term price increases [5]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, which has a projected PE ratio of 16 for 2025 [22]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold and Huayou Cobalt, with respective PE ratios of 24 and 20 for 2025 [22]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Hesteel and Shandong Steel [23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a rise in both precious and base metal prices, with expectations of continued liquidity in the market [2][6] - Gold prices have shown a steady increase due to low inventory and favorable liquidity conditions, while silver prices have surged significantly [6][7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic disturbances, despite a recent increase [9] - Aluminum prices are showing a strong trend supported by macroeconomic factors, although supply pressures persist [8] - Energy metals like lithium are experiencing strong demand, with inventory levels decreasing [10] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased: SHFE gold rose 1.40% to 970.66 CNY/gram, COMEX gold rose 2.05% to 4,329.80 USD/ounce [6][24] - Silver prices surged: SHFE silver increased 10.89% to 14,892 CNY/kg, COMEX silver rose 5.13% to 62.09 USD/ounce [7][24] - Central bank gold purchases continue, with China's reserves increasing to 7,412 million ounces [6] Copper - Copper prices fluctuated: SHFE copper rose 1.40% to 94,080 CNY/ton, while LME copper fell 0.91% to 11,515 USD/ton [9][21] - Supply remains tight, with copper processing fees decreasing [9] - Global visible copper inventory totaled 835,800 tons, showing a slight decrease [9][22] Aluminum - Aluminum prices showed a slight decline: SHFE aluminum fell 0.78% to 22,170 CNY/ton, LME aluminum decreased 1.00% to 2,868.5 USD/ton [8][21] - Processing rates for aluminum have dropped to 61.8% [8][90] - The industry is facing supply pressures, particularly in alumina [8] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate demand remains high, with inventory levels decreasing by 2,133 tons [10] - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight raw material supply, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets [10] - Rare earth prices have shown mixed trends, with light rare earths stabilizing while heavy rare earths continue to decline [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].