Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising gold prices, which have reached new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43% from April 14 to April 25, 2025, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - Energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) showed the highest gains, while minor metals and new metal materials declined by -1.66% and -1.78%, respectively [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date [3][22]. - COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, increasing by 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations are driving gold prices, with a potential for short-term corrections but long-term support factors remaining strong [23][26]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date [30]. - LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, increasing by 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30]. - The report highlights that copper prices are influenced by tariff policy changes and long-term demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date [37]. - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 237,500 CNY per ton, down 1.04% over two weeks but up 66.08% year-to-date [37]. - The report indicates that antimony prices are supported by supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date [50][51]. - The report notes that the market is experiencing downward pressure due to reduced demand from key industries amid a slowing global economy [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices for electrolytic cobalt averaged 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date [57]. - Lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade) averaged 69,800 CNY per ton, down 2.51% over two weeks and down 7.06% year-to-date [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, reaching new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review (April 14 - April 25, 2025) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43%, ranking 11th among 31 sectors, with energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) leading the gains [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, up 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes are driving gold prices, with a recent peak above $3,400 per ounce [23][24]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date. LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, up 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30][33]. - The report attributes copper's recent price increase to easing tariff policies and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date. LME tin was priced at $31,975 per ton, up 1.52% over two weeks and 12.35% year-to-date [37][41]. - Antimony prices are experiencing high volatility due to supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38][39]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date. Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell by 5.14% over two weeks [50][51]. - The report indicates that recent export control policies are impacting market dynamics, with demand from new energy sectors remaining strong [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are stable, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date. Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,375 CNY per ton, up 0.05% over two weeks [58][59]. - The report highlights cobalt's critical role in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].

Group 1 - Jinchengxin signed a mining production contract with Western Mining for approximately 377 million yuan [1] - Weishinkang's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for compound amino acid injection (18AA-Ⅸ) [1] - Kangyuan Pharmaceutical obtained a drug registration certificate for Yunu Jian granules [2] Group 2 - Zongheng Communication reported a net profit of 3.42 million yuan in Q1 2025, turning from loss to profit [3] - Phoenix Holdings achieved a net profit of 1.39 million yuan in Q1 2025, also turning from loss to profit [3] - Dayuan Pump Industry reported a net profit of 39.21 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 3.95% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - Shuo Beid reported a net profit of 14.53 million yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 276.05% year-on-year [7] - Tongde Chemical reported a net profit of 10.31 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 51.51% year-on-year [8] - Vanadium Titanium Co. reported a net loss of 98 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decline of 40.84% in revenue [9] Group 4 - Xineng Taishan reported a net profit of 16.23 million yuan in Q1 2025, turning from loss to profit [10] - Andavil reported a net profit of 13.83 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 87.82% year-on-year [12] - Xingyuan Environment reported a net loss of 302 million yuan in 2024, a reduction in loss by 69.46% [14] Group 5 - China Rare Earth reported a net loss of 287 million yuan in 2024, turning from profit to loss [15] - Zhejiang Huaye reported a net profit of 92.94 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 32.21% year-on-year [16] - Mengjie Co. reported a net profit of 24.88 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 10.99% year-on-year [18] Group 6 - Tongde Chemical reported a net loss of 71.99 million yuan in 2024, turning from profit to loss [19] - Rongsheng Development reported a net loss of 8.44 billion yuan in 2024, turning from profit to loss [21] - Sanwei Communication reported a net loss of 27.1 million yuan in 2024, turning from profit to loss [22] Group 7 - Wankang Technology reported a net loss of 16.3 million yuan in 2024, turning from profit to loss [24] - Huitian New Materials reported a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 65.91% year-on-year [25] - Luzhou Laojiao reported a net profit of 13.47 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 1.71% year-on-year [27] Group 8 - Haiyuan Composite reported a net loss of 16 million yuan in 2024 [29] - Hongchuan Wisdom reported a net profit of 15.8 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 46.57% year-on-year [30] - Gree Electric reported a net profit of 32.18 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 10.91% year-on-year [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 55.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a gross margin of 16% and a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in production of key products [1] - The company is focusing on resource development and supply security, aiming to enhance its mining capacity and create a self-controlled mineral resource supply chain [2] - The company is advancing its "Two Seas" strategy, with new projects in alumina and electrolytic aluminum contributing to its competitive edge in the industry [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 8.8, and 7.5 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, alumina production reached 5.43 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 1.94 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,400 yuan per ton, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while alumina averaged 3,833 yuan per ton, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 225.3 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 222.3 billion yuan for 2025 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its domestic mineral rights exploration and actively participate in the competition for mineral rights in key provinces [2] - New projects include the construction of several alumina and aluminum alloy projects, as well as renewable energy initiatives, with a target of achieving a 45.5% clean energy consumption ratio in electrolytic aluminum production [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 13.6% [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 111.17 billion yuan, with a total share count of 17.16 billion shares [5]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 25 年 月 日 中国铝业（601600.SH） 25Q1 铝产品"量价齐升"增厚利润，全球铝行业龙头地位稳固 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 24 日披露 2025 年一季度业绩公告，实现营收 558 亿元，同比增长 14%，环比减少 12%，毛利率 16%；实现归母净利 35.4 亿元，同比增长 59%，环比增长 5%，净利率 10%。利润增加主要 系公司全方位极致降本增效及主要产品同比增产所致。 铝产品"量价齐升"增厚公司利润空间。1）量，25Q1 氧化铝产量 543 万 吨，同比+4%，环比+1%，销量 168 万吨，同比+12%，环比+6%；电 解铝产量 194 万吨，同比+9%，环比-3%，销量 190 万吨，同比+8%， 环比-5%；煤炭产量 322 万吨，同比+12%，环比-6%；外售电厂发电量 41 亿千瓦时，同比持平，环比-7%。2）价，据 SMM，25Q1 电解铝价格 为 2.04 万元/吨，同比增长 7.3%，环比减少 0.5%；25Q1 氧化铝价格为 3833 元/吨，同比增长 15.2%，环比减少 28.1% ...

文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic and policy environment in the U.S. and that of 1984, suggesting that commodity prices may follow a similar trajectory due to shared characteristics in economic conditions, government pressures, exchange rates, and policy measures [1][5][20]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Industrial metals exhibit high price elasticity and are sensitive to economic and policy changes, with the CRB spot index serving as a representative for commodity prices [2]. - The price movements of CRB metals from the 1970s show similarities to recent trends, indicating a potential long-term upward price center, although current conditions are more comparable to 1984 [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that price increases typically last 20-30 months, while declines are more rapid, lasting 12-18 months [3]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Similarities - Current economic conditions mirror those of the early 1980s, characterized by recession, fiscal expansion, and high inflation, leading to a cycle of declining interest rates and inflation [5][11]. - The U.S. faces similar pressures as in the 1980s, including high trade deficits and increasing fiscal deficits [6][12]. - The exchange rate environment is akin to that of the early 1980s, with a strong dollar exacerbating trade deficits, prompting government efforts to weaken the dollar [6][16]. - Policy measures from the current administration reflect those of the Reagan era, including tax cuts, promoting oil production, and reducing government spending to address fiscal deficits [20]. Group 3: Future Commodity Outlook - Based on historical trends from 1984 to 1986, a downward trend in commodity prices is anticipated, influenced by the Plaza Accord and the resulting currency dynamics [21][23]. - The initial pricing of commodities may reflect a contraction in global trade, with future expectations potentially correcting if certain countries are less affected by tariffs [23]. - The unclear economic outlook in the U.S. will depend on the duration of government policies, with potential short-term price spikes driven by policy stimuli, but long-term price levels will be determined by demand fundamentals [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][36]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.81 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to reach 2.69 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 43.9% [5][6]. - The company’s copper smelting cost competitiveness is strong, and the second phase of the Mirador project is set to commence production in mid-2025, which will increase the company's copper mining capacity to 310,000 tons, ranking third among A-share copper companies [2][6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company is expected to generate a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, with a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan. The operating cash flow is projected to decline to 1.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.1% due to increased raw material inventory and new smelting capacity coming online [5][6]. - The company’s copper production is forecasted to be 155,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 20,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to power shortages in Ecuador affecting the Mirador copper mine [6][7]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.885 billion yuan, 4.397 billion yuan, and 4.561 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 52.4%, and 3.7% [2][34]. Segment Analysis - In the smelting segment, the company’s profitability is expected to decline in the second half of 2024, but it will not incur losses. The estimated smelting profit margin is expected to remain above 40% in 2024, despite a general decline in profitability across the industry [2][6]. - The mining segment is facing challenges, with a projected copper output decrease due to operational disruptions. However, the upcoming production from the second phase of the Mirador project is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's mining capacity [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%, with a gross margin of 20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23% [1] - The company plans to build an integrated aluminum industry park in Indonesia, which will include bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, deep processing, and supporting industries, enhancing its competitive edge in the global aluminum market [2] - Tianshan Aluminum aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate in bauxite supply by expanding its resource acquisition capabilities and upstream industry layout [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.3, and 5.8 [4] Financial Summary - In 2025, Tianshan Aluminum is projected to have a revenue of 31.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.791 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.03 yuan in 2025, with a net asset return rate of 16.2% [5]

金融界4月21日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证香港300资源指数 (H300资源，H30326)报2342.69点。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300资源指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（30.27%）、中国石油股份 （12.09%）、中国神华（10.59%）、紫金矿业（10.42%）、中国石油化工股份（9.56%）、中国宏桥 （3.67%）、中煤能源（3.33%）、招金矿业（3.3%）、兖矿能源（2.6%）、洛阳钼业（2.2%）。 从中证香港300资源指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300资源指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比52.33%、煤炭占比18.61%、贵金属占 比15.80%、工业金属占比9.90%、稀有金属占比2.94%、其他有色金属及合金占比0.41%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指 ...