期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-24 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶强势运行 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：春节长假期间，日本东京胶累计涨幅达 2.13%，新加坡 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

Morning session notice | 56.6，低于预期的 57.3，一年期通胀预期降至 3.4%。 | | --- | | 7、2 月美国标普全球制造业 PMI 初值 51.2，为 7 个月新低，低于预期 52.6，1 月 前值为 52.4；服务业 PMI 初值 52.3，略低于预期 53.0，1 月前值为 52.7，显示商 业活动增速放缓。 | | 8、S&P Global 公布的数据显示，欧元区 2 月综合 PMI 从 1 月的 51.3 升至 51.9， 制造业 PMI 从 49.5 跃升至 50.8，创 44 个月新高，并自去年 8 月以来首次站上 50 荣枯线。服务业 PMI 小幅上升至 51.8，前值 51.6。其中德国经济显著改善，综合 PMI 升至 53.1 的四个月高点，制造业 PMI 达到 50.7，为 2022 年 6 月以来首次进入 扩张区间。 | | 9、央视新闻：有消息称美国总统特朗普已告诉其顾问，他"倾向于在未来数日（对 伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗 "屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于 26 日在瑞士日 ...

1. Report Summary - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for February 24, 2026, covering multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 2. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From February 9 to February 13, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a trend of narrowing negative values, from -104.4 yuan/ton to -83.4 yuan/ton [2] 3. Energy Chemicals 3.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt base prices are provided from February 9 to February 13, 2026 [7] 3.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are shown [9] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period data such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol and other chemicals are provided [10] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety data such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are presented [10] 4. Black Metals 4.1 Base Price - Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are given [21] 4.2 Inter - period - Inter - period data such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore and other black metals are provided [20] 4.3 Inter - variety - Inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are presented [20] 5. Non - Ferrous Metals 5.1 Domestic Market - Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are shown [29] 5.2 London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss on February 13, 2026 are provided [34] 6. Agricultural Products 6.1 Base Price - Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are given [41] 6.2 Inter - period - Inter - period data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2 and other agricultural products are provided [41] 6.3 Inter - variety - Inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are presented [40][41] 7. Stock Index Futures 7.1 Base Price - Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are given [54] 7.2 Inter - period - Inter - period data such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [52]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属周报（2.13-2.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 上周回顾 2 每周周评 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 | 指 标 | 前 收 | 最 高 | 最 低 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2604 | 1110 1 . | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | - 0 11 . | | 沪银2604 | 19782 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | - 0 02 . | | 黄金2604 | 5130 | 5131 | 4868 5 . | 83 70 . | 1 66 . | | 白银2603 | 84 57 . | 84 ...

大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（2.9~2.13） 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 春节假期的LME市场，铜价偏震荡运行。节后市场将进入基本面（国内季节性需求）与政策面（美国关 税动向）双重驱动的阶段。长期收益于国内4500万吨天花板产能约束支撑，铝价仍易涨难跌。假期回 来或有所高开，23000~24000元/吨运行为主，中期仍乐观震荡偏强，消费旺季即将来临，短期或偏多 操作。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（2.9~2.13） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 春节假期的LME市场，铜价偏震荡运行，在供给刚性约束背景下，假期回来将逐步进入消费旺季的共同 支撑下，开局预计偏强，仍要关注库存去库力度。短期走势需密切关注复工后现货需求的实际强度与 库存去化速度，中期行情则取决于"预期"向"现实"转化的程度，能否库存出现大幅下降。宏观面， 美国的关税反复多变，情绪扰动仍大。假期回来或高开，在100000~130000元/吨运行为主。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平 ...

文字早评 2026/02/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美伊冲突走向愈加悲观，伊朗石油储量为全球第三并控制霍尔木兹海峡，多位分析师预测油价将大 幅上涨； 2、国内 AI 大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证； 3、人民币汇率强势升值至 6.89 区间，股债汇三市联动向好，外资回流趋势确立； 4、荣耀将推出首款人形机器人，聚焦消费市场；SK 海力士 DRAM 及 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，今年所有客 户的需求都无法得到完全满足。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/9.13%/10.00%/6.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/3.80%/10.30%/7.40%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/2.46%/14.22%/10.51%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/6.02%/3.43%/3.89%。 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1135 亿元。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好、美国关税政策反转释放外需预期的背景下，叠加人民币汇率强势升 值带动外资流入、大模型发布潮与机器人出圈，股指有望先迎来一波偏强表现。 ...

L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 塑料 L 及 PP：L 仓单持平，PP 仓单累库 【市场情况】 【逻辑分析】 截至节前：大商所 L 合约注册仓单维持在 0.94 万吨，同比累库+43.2%；大商所 PP 合约注册仓单累库+6.6%至 1.87 万吨，同比累库+94.2%。1 月，LLDPE 月度检修 损失量增长至 13.4 万吨，同比增长+37.1%，涨幅扩大，利多 L。 【交易策略】 1.单边：L 主力 2605 合约观望，关注 6600 点前期低位处的支撑；PP 主力 2605 合约少量试空，宜在 6620 点近日低位处设置止损。 L 塑料相关：L 主力 2605 合约报收 6644 点，下跌-90 点或-1.34%。LLDPE 市场 价格横盘整理，节前业者多已离市，报盘稳定为主，市场有价无市。华北大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6520-6900 元/吨，价格稳定。华东大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6620-7000 元/吨，区间价格稳定。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP 主力 2605 合约报收 6568 点，下跌-80 点或-1.20%。节前国 内 PP 市场 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 薛钧元 粕类市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，节前2月13日收盘豆粕2605合约2800元/吨，环比上涨65元/吨，涨幅2.38%；2月13日收盘菜 粕2605合约2309元/吨，环比上涨70元/吨，涨幅3.13%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨， 环比持平，现货基差M05+370，环比下降65；江苏地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，环比上涨40元/吨，现 货基差M05+270，环比下跌25；广东地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，环比上涨50元/吨，现货基差 M05+260，环比下跌15。福建地区菜粕现货价格2420元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨，现货基差M05+111，环 比下跌60。 豆粕：国际方面，巴西商贸部表示，截止2026年2月第2周，累计装出大豆269.3万吨，去年2月为642.8万 吨。日均装运量为26.9万吨，较去年2月的32.1万吨减少16.22%。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至2 月18日当周目前75%的大豆作物评级正常至良好，高于一周前的68%，去年同期68%；66%的种植区水 分条件适宜到最佳 ...