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如何看待用电增速与经济增速温差
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-21 22:41
通过剖析这种"背离",也给我们带来三重启示:其一,要理性看待电力消费弹性系数的波动,建立更立 体的经济监测指标体系;其二,需警惕部分地区为追求用电数据"匹配"GDP而放松能效约束,防止高耗 能项目回潮;其三,应加快构建新型电力系统,通过虚拟电厂、需求侧响应等手段,将波动性新能源与 柔性负荷高效匹配,为高质量发展提供更灵活的能源支撑。 即便剔除这两个"偶然因素",用电量增速仍与经济增速有较大差距,其中的缺口与用电结构有关。第二 产业用电量占比大但增速偏低,是导致全社会用电量增速低于经济增速的主要因素。一季度,工业和建 筑业用电量增长缓慢,对用电量增速低于经济增速的贡献较为明显。其中,房地产市场调整导致相关产 业需求减少,进而影响了用电量;光伏市场深度调整,使得电气机械和器材制造业用电量下降;汽车行 业高端化发展,虽然带来了行业增加值快速增长,但用电量增长却相对滞后。在这些叠加因素作用下, 使第二产业从以往推动用电量增速高于经济增速的主要力量,转变为拉低用电量增速的因素。 有人担心,用电量增速放缓是不是经济发展的后劲不足了呢?其实大可不必如此设想。用电增速与经济 增速的温差,不应简单理解为经济"虚胖"或统计失真, ...
国内观察:2025年4月经济数据:关税扰动下,韧性较强的4月经济
Donghai Securities· 2025-05-19 13:51
Economic Overview - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March[2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous month's 4.2%[2] - The industrial added value for large enterprises rose by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 7.7% in March[2] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate remains above last year's average of 5.6%, despite a slight decline due to reduced "export rush" effects[2] - High-tech manufacturing saw a growth rate of 10.0%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points[2] - Exports showed a decline, with the export delivery value dropping to 0.9% year-on-year in April[2] Consumer Behavior - Offline consumption rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in April[2] - The "trade-in" effect contributed notably to retail growth, with categories like home appliances and office supplies seeing retail growth rates of 38.8% and 33.5%, respectively[2] - Jewelry retail sales increased by 25.3%, driven by high gold prices[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth showed a slight decline, with real estate investment remaining low at a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%[2] - Infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.6% for broad infrastructure and 5.8% for narrow infrastructure in April[2] - Real estate sales continued to weaken, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8%[2] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may provide a temporary boost to exports in the second quarter[2]
一季度陕西重点领域信贷支持稳固有力
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-05-17 23:50
Core Insights - The financial support for key sectors in Shaanxi province has been robust, with significant growth in loans for key industries, inclusive small and micro loans, and green loans, alongside steady growth in loans for technology enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Key Industry Loan Growth - As of the end of March, the loan balance for the manufacturing sector in Shaanxi reached 462.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.05% [2] - The balance of credit loans in the manufacturing sector was 238.86 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.82% [2] - The construction industry loan balance was 348.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.48% [2] Group 2: Inclusive Small and Micro Loans - The loan balance for small and micro enterprises in Shaanxi reached 1,236.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.77%, exceeding the overall loan growth rate by 15.42 percentage points [2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 613.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, surpassing the overall loan growth rate by 9.84 percentage points [2] Group 3: Support for Private Economy - The loan balance for private enterprises in Shaanxi reached 1.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.15%, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the overall loan growth rate [2] Group 4: Green Loan Expansion - The balance of green loans in Shaanxi reached 804.26 billion yuan by the end of March, with an increase of 51.12 billion yuan in the first quarter, accounting for 25.66% of the total loan increment [2] Group 5: Technology Enterprise Loans - The loan balance for technology enterprises in Shaanxi surpassed 414.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.07% [3] - The cumulative amount of re-loans for technological innovation reached 3.86 billion yuan, benefiting 6,833 technology enterprises and effectively reducing financing costs [3] - The loan growth rate for the core industries of the digital economy reached 24.1%, supporting the rapid development of the digital economy in Shaanxi [3]
2025年度招标:郴州市苏仙区观山洞村民拆迁安置集中联建配电工程采购项目
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 02:16
¨预付款保证金:预付款的 / %; þ质量保证金:合同金额的 3 %。 2025年度招标:郴州市苏仙区观山洞村民拆迁安置集中联建配电工程采购项目 湖南省 2025-05-15 受郴州市新天投资有限公司的委托,对郴州市苏仙区观山洞村民拆迁安置集中联建配电工程采购项目进行竞争性磋商采购,现采用公告邀请方式,邀请符合 资格条件的供应商参与竞争性磋商采购活动。 一、采购项目基本信息 ¨支持预付款,预付比例: / % ¨投标保证金:不超过采购项目预算的 / %; ¨履约保证金:中标金额的 / %; 二、采购人的采购需求 序号 名称 技术及服务要求 预算(元) 最高限价(元) 数量 01 郴州市苏仙区观山洞村民拆迁安置集中联建配电工程采购项目 详见磋商文件 3877902.12 3877902.12 1项 1、投标人的基本资格条件:投标人必须是在中华人民共和国境内注册登记的法人、其他组织或者自然人,且应当符合《政府采购法》第二十二条第一款的 规定,即 2、落实政府采购政策需满足的资格要求: þ专门面向:þ中小企业 þ小微企业 ¨监狱企业 ¨福利性单位。 ¨强制分包:大型企业应将采购份额的 / %分包给中小企业。 3、本项 ...
信贷结构亮点频现,一揽子政策发力赋能经济
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 10:29
Group 1: Economic Growth and Financial Support - The financial total is expected to maintain reasonable growth following the introduction of a package of incremental policies in May, which will solidify the foundation for the continuous recovery of the domestic economy [1] - Despite increased external uncertainties since April, the domestic economy shows strong resilience, with social financing scale growth accelerating and RMB loan balance increasing by 7.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The foreign trade growth trend continues, with the total value of goods trade in the first four months increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in RMB terms and 1.3% in USD terms, indicating a recovery in export resilience [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Improvement - From January to April, RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with the balance of inclusive small and micro loans reaching 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing at 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% [2] - The evolution of credit structure reflects economic structural changes, with a notable shift in loan distribution towards real enterprises, as corporate loans increased from 63% to approximately 68% of total loans from 2021 to present [3] - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises rose from 31% to about 38%, while loans to large and medium enterprises decreased from 69% to about 62%, indicating a significant impact from inclusive small and micro loan initiatives [3] Group 3: Industry Focus and Policy Direction - Financial institutions have increasingly directed credit resources towards manufacturing and technological innovation, with the proportion of manufacturing loans in total medium to long-term loans rising from 5.1% to approximately 9.3% since 2021 [4] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is shifting towards promoting consumption, with financial policies aimed at supporting high-quality consumer goods supply, while addressing employment, income, and social security issues to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [4][5] - The development of consumer finance aims to expand effective consumer demand and ensure that consumer loans are genuinely used to support consumption, emphasizing a principle of reasonable moderation [5] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank and other departments released a package of policy measures on May 7, including interest rate cuts and structural tool optimizations, to create a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [6] - The central bank's recent monetary policy practices have focused on a combination of different policy tools to enhance effectiveness, benefiting various market participants and boosting market expectations and investment confidence [6][7] - Recent structural policy adjustments by the central bank are aligned with the macroeconomic strategy of tapping economic potential and promoting consumption, indicating a clear focus on technology and consumption as key support areas [7]
央行:居民买房投资更趋理性,5年来居民贷款占比降5个百分点
news flash· 2025-05-14 09:15
今年以来,信贷结构持续改善,支持经济结构转型。从央行获悉,从企业和居民角度看,2021年至今, 企业贷款占比由63%升至约68%,居民贷款占比相应由37%降至约32%,一升一降的背后,表明信贷资 金更多投向了实体企业,居民融资需求下降也与买房投资等更趋理性有关;从行业投向看,2021年至 今,在全部中长期贷款中,制造业占比由5.1%升至约9.3%,消费类行业占比由9.6%升至约11.2%,而传 统的房地产和建筑业占比则由15.9%降至约13%。(第一财经) ...
美国4月小企业信心连续第四个月下滑
news flash· 2025-05-13 10:06
金十数据5月13日讯,美国4月小企业信心连续第四个月下滑,报告职位空缺的企业主比例降至四年多来 最低水平,这可能暗示就业市场明显放缓。全美独立企业联盟(NFIB)4月小企业信心指数下降1.6点 至95.8,连续第二个月低于51年平均水平98。上个月,34%的小企业主表示有职位空缺,比3月份下降 了6个百分点。这是自2021年1月以来的最低比例。29%的小企业主有技术工人的空缺,下降了4个百分 点。金融和农业的空缺职位最少。但建筑业工人仍然稀缺,而商品的提前备货可能提振了批发行业的劳 动力需求。3月商品进口飙升至历史新高,但这种情况不太可能持续下去,因计划在未来几个月进行库 存投资的小企业主比例降至11个月最低。 美国4月小企业信心连续第四个月下滑 ...
海南省高质量发展取得明显成效
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2025-05-13 01:40
Group 1 - The fifth national economic census in Hainan Province shows significant growth in the number of units in the secondary and tertiary industries, leading to increased employment [1] - By the end of 2023, there were 174,000 legal entities engaged in secondary and tertiary industries, an increase of 74,000 from the end of 2018 [1] - The top three industries by the number of legal entities in the secondary and tertiary sectors are wholesale and retail (39,000), rental and business services (37,000), and construction (18,000) [1] Group 2 - The total assets of legal entities in the secondary and tertiary industries reached 88,627.4 billion yuan by the end of 2023 [2] - In 2023, the total operating income of legal entities in the secondary and tertiary industries was 34,335.8 billion yuan [2] - There were 11,761 legal entities in the core digital economy sector by the end of 2023, employing 78,284 people and generating an operating income of 2,224.8 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - By the end of 2023, there were 139 legal entities in strategic emerging industries in the scale above industrial enterprises and 290 in the scale above service enterprises [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector had 76 legal entities, generating an operating income of 289.6 billion yuan, while the high-tech service sector had 322 legal entities with an operating income of 1,117.4 billion yuan [2]