【大河财立方 记者 王时丹】当2025年的日历翻至最后一页，全国A股融资地图清晰呈现：全年股权融 资规模超万亿元，长三角、珠三角及环渤海地区持续领跑，北京、上海年内股权融资规模突破千亿元。 | | | | | | 单位:亿元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 省(直辖市) | 总额 | 首发 | 增发 = | 可转债发行 | | 1 | 北京 | 4.585.07 | 199. 08 | 4,362. 45 | 11 23. 54 | | 2 | 上海 | 1.858.17 | 96. 71 | 1.727.91 | 33. 55 | | 3 | 广东 | 984. 90 | 182. 70 | 559. 56 | 242. 65 | | 4 | 江苏 | 775.61 | 200. 95 | 506. 37 | 68. 29 | | 5 | 重庆 | 365. 90 | NE | 317. 40 | 48. 50 | | 6 | · 福建 | 328. 40 | 224. 47 | 47.99 | 55. 94 | | 7 | 浙江 | 321. ...

今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于73.47一线下方，今日开盘于76.23美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报73.10美元/盎司，下跌4.04%，最高触及76.40美元/盎司，最低下探72.43美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 周二公布的政府数据显示，美国10月房价年率涨幅为逾13年来新低，表明长期低迷的房地产市场正逐步 恢复可负担性。这被视为住房市场可负担性改善的迹象，但也暗示经济放缓可能推动美联储进一步宽 松。 美国联邦住房金融署(FHFA)表示，10月份房价较上年同期上涨1.7%，9月份的涨幅经上修后为1.8%。这 是自2012年3月以来最低的年度价格涨幅。 当前房价涨幅仅为疫情期间及疫情刚结束时的一小部分。当时，广泛实施的居家办公政策曾引发房地产 市场狂热，推动房价以接近20%的年增长率持续飙升。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 日线图上的看跌吞噬模式是一个负面信号，可能预示着更深的调整。盘中阻力位位于76.50美元，之后 是80.00美元的心理位和85.87美元的历史高位。 下行方面，上述50期移动均线和周一低点70.53美元可能为潜在的看跌反转提供 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-31 融资余额创新高，股指震荡修复 市场分析 国补政策继续。宏观方面，2026年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更 新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026年国补对象新增智能眼 镜、智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补贴12%或10%，补贴上限仍延续2025 年标准（即2万元或1.5万元）。家电国补范围缩小，限定为冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品， 一级能效家电补贴比例从此前20%降至15%，每件家电补贴最高额度从2000元降至1500元。海外方面，美联储公布 的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会者表示，根据他们的经济展 望，在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。纪要同时显示，如果通胀如预 期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，准备金余额已经下降到充足的水平，委 员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应。他们还同意取消对常备回购操作 ...

.3 中州國際證券有限公司 研究部 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 港股晨報 環球市場指數 | | | 漲跌(日) | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 香港股市 | | | | | 恒生指數 | 25,855 | 0.9% | 28.9% | | H股指數 | 8,991 | 1.1% | 23.3% | | 中國股市 | | | | | 上海綜合指數 | 3,965 | 0.0% | 18.3% | | 深證成份指數 | 13,604 | 0.5% | 30.6% | | 滬深300指數 | 4,651 | 0.3% | 18.2% | | 其他新興國家 | | | | | 巴西IBOVSPA指數 | 161,125 | 0.4% | 34.0% | | 亞洲股市 | | | | | 日經指數 | 50,339 | -0.4% | 26.2% | | 韓國綜合指數 | 4,214 | -0.2% | 75.6% | | 富時新加坡指數 | 4,655 | 0.5% | 22.9% | | 歐美股市 | | | | | 道鐘斯工業指數 | 48,367 | -0 ...

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Group 1: Hot News - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds for consumer goods trade - in. New subsidy objects include smart products, and home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. Car purchase subsidies remain at 2025 caps, and home appliance subsidy scope and rates are reduced [2] - From 2026, the VAT levy rate for individuals selling homes bought less than 2 years ago drops to 3%, and those bought 2 or more years ago are exempt. This will boost second - hand housing trading activity but increase supply [2] - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to balance supply and demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [2] - In December 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value drops 55 yuan/ton, a 3.6% decline [3] - Last week, domestic oil mills had high operating rates, and soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate. During the New Year's Day holiday, soybean crushing is expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons, but inventory may remain high at around 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, PVC, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance shows different percentage changes for various commodity futures sectors, with precious metals at 32.77%, non - metallic building materials at 2.20%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 0.00% daily change, 1.97% monthly change, and 18.30% annual change [6] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 逻辑：2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达 首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、 智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补 贴 12%或 10%，补贴上限仍延续 2025 年标准。财政部、税务总局发布公告， 自 2026 年起，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，增值税征收率从 此前的 5%下调至 3%，满两年及以上的免征增值税。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材：驱动不强 震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号 ...

个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人，下同）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上 （含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 2025年12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》（2025年第17号），明确自2026年1月1日起，调整个人销售 住房的增值税政策。 新规规定： 根据公告，个人销售购买不足2年的住房，增值税征收率由原政策下的5%下调至3%，按销售额全额征收；销售购买2年以上（含2年）的住 房，则继续免征增值税。 对此，上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进分析称，此次调整最直接的影响是降低了短期持有住房的交易成本。他以一套售价100万元、持有 未满2年的住房为例：原先需缴纳增值税约5万元，新政后仅需3万元，业主税费负担直接减少2万元。 "这有助于减轻业主出售短期房产的压力，提高房源流动性。"严跃进分析称，成本的降低有望促使一部分因税费过高而犹豫的业主进入市场， 增加二手房供应。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉告诉记者，新政出台的背景是，当前新房和二手房市场开始分化，导致"卖旧买新"循环受阻。新政 将降低"卖旧买新"的循环阻力， ...

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].