Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the rise in overseas housing prices since the pandemic, attributing it primarily to inflation, with nominal prices increasing by over 30% on average across nearly 50 economies since 2020, while real prices have only risen about 5% [2][5][6]. Group 1: Short-term Housing Price Trends - Since 2020, nominal housing prices in most economies have reached new highs, driven by inflation, with an average nominal price increase of over 30% [5]. - The actual price increase, when adjusted for inflation, is only about 5%, indicating that the nominal rise is largely a reflection of inflation rather than real value growth [5][6]. - The pace of price increases has slowed down, with most gains occurring in 2020-2021, and nominal price growth averaging less than 10% since mid-2022 [6][8]. Group 2: Long-term Housing Price Divergence - There is a notable divergence in housing price trends between developed economies and export-oriented economies, with developed economies generally seeing prices outpace income growth since the 2000s [3][10]. - In contrast, countries like Japan and some Southeast Asian nations have experienced lower housing price growth compared to income, highlighting a significant disparity [3][10]. - This divergence is partly attributed to long-term imbalances in capital accounts and cross-border capital flows, which shape the asset characteristics of real estate in different economies [3][11]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The real estate markets in developed economies, particularly the U.S., may continue to face stagflation concerns, with housing affordability challenges persisting in the near term [4][9]. - The potential for fiscal and monetary easing by 2026 may provide some marginal recovery in housing markets, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [9][13]. - The ongoing high inflation and potential supply shortages in housing could complicate efforts to stabilize the market, leading to a prolonged period of stagnation [9][12].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been experiencing a downward price trend since the second half of 2021, initially affecting lower-tier cities and later spreading to major regional centers and even first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1][3]. Market Trends - The price decline has led many homeowners, who sold properties at peak prices in early 2021, to regret their decisions as current prices have dropped significantly [1][3]. - For instance, a homeowner in Shanghai sold a 50 square meter property for 3.7 million yuan, but the same property is now valued at 3.3 million yuan [1]. Investment Behavior - Many homeowners who sold their properties used the proceeds to invest in stocks, funds, and other high-yield financial products, but faced significant losses in the subsequent year due to poor market performance [3][5]. - The lack of investment knowledge among these homeowners has exacerbated their financial risks, leading to substantial losses [3]. Future Concerns - Homeowners are increasingly worried about a potential rebound in property prices, especially as government policies have begun to support the real estate market, including lower mortgage rates and reduced down payment requirements [5]. - The fear of missing out on future property purchases has left many former homeowners feeling anxious and regretful about their past decisions [5]. Financial Management - With large sums of cash from property sales, many homeowners have faced pressure from friends and family for loans, leading to difficulties in recovering those funds [5]. - This situation has prompted some homeowners to reflect on their decisions to sell, wishing they had retained their properties instead [5]. Recommendations - It is advised that homeowners who sold at high prices should be cautious with high-risk investments and consider safer options like bank deposits until the economic environment improves [9]. - Homeowners are also encouraged to avoid impulsive decisions to re-enter the real estate market due to current positive signals, as the overall market adjustment trend is expected to continue [10].

当前，房地产市场呈现出三个清晰的趋势，预示着一场长期的调整在所难免。 趋势一：商品房已然供过于求，市场趋于饱和。 潮起潮落，楼市的漫长调整已然来临 二十余载风云变幻，中国房地产市场曾如日中天，全国平均房价飙升了惊人的五倍半。即便时至今日， 各地房价依旧如高山般巍然不动。数据显示，2022年10月，全国百城新建商品住宅的平均价格高达每平 方米16199元，二手房价格也达到每平方米15945元。这意味着，对于普通家庭而言，购置一套商品房， 动辄需要花费120万到200万人民币，其沉重的经济负担不言而喻。 然而，自去年下半年起，房地产市场的这艘巨轮开始缓缓调头，越来越多的城市房价加入了下跌的行 列。截至10月，全国70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅和二手住宅的销售价格环比下跌的城市数量分别达 到了58个和62个，较上月各自增加了4个和1个。面对这一转变，诸多业界专家纷纷发出预警，提醒人们 需为明年的"潮水退去"做好充分的准备。 目前，我国拥有住房的家庭比例高达96%，更有41.5%的家庭拥有两套及以上房产，这表明房地产市场 的确已接近饱和状态。与此同时，我国的空置房数量触目惊心，高达7500万套。在"房多人少"的供需关 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Development - The "Industrial AI Application Innovation Challenge" has attracted over 1,000 students, showcasing the growing interest in AI solutions in Dongguan's Binhai Bay area [4] - Binhai Bay has actively supported multiple AI competitions since July, indicating a strategic focus on fostering innovation and talent in the AI sector [4] Group 2: Economic Growth in Chang'an - Chang'an Town has seen a 19.8% increase in market entities over three years, highlighting the success of the "Hundred Million Thousand Project" in stimulating local economic development [6] - The town produces nearly 200 smartphones per minute and generates over 13 billion yuan in GDP per square kilometer, positioning it as a leading economic hub in Dongguan [6] Group 3: Healthcare Collaboration - Dongguan has established four medical alliances with Guangzhou hospitals in six months, enhancing healthcare access for its citizens [9] - The rapid formation of these alliances reflects a strategic move towards improving the quality of medical services in the region [9] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Marco Polo Holdings has successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, raising 1.643 billion yuan through the issuance of 11.9492 million shares at a price of 13.75 yuan per share [11] - The company reported a projected revenue of 7.324 billion yuan and a net profit of approximately 1.327 billion yuan for the upcoming fiscal year, solidifying its position as a major player in the building ceramics market [11] Group 5: Land Compensation Issues - Four companies, including Fuying Group, are suing the Daojiao Town government for 1.192 billion yuan in compensation for land that has not been compensated for over a decade [17] - The court has ruled that Daojiao Town is responsible for the compensation, but the companies' claims against the Natural Resources Bureau were not supported [17]

房地产市场一直都是一个非常敏感的话题。最近几年，由于政策调整和市场调整，许多城市的房价开始下降。在这种情况下，很多人选择在房价下跌的时 候卖房，以避免进一步损失。然而，即使房价下跌，也有人卖不掉房子。 近日， 东论网友" 月下鹰翔"发帖称：18年高位买的房子花了210万，挂网一年，但都因价钱不合适而不成功， 而后重新挂牌出售180万都卖不出去… 该业主的情况并非个例。事实上，近几年来房地产市场下跌的情况很普遍。在这种情况下，很多人选择卖掉房子以减少损失。但是，有些人即使降价也卖 不掉房子，造成了巨大的经济压力和心理压力。 图源东论网友； 对于该业主的经历，东论网友"可乐大叔"称： "现在90%的房子都失去流动性了，很多人不是不想买，是根本没钱。" 更有网友直言， 只要价格合适，没有卖不掉的房子，而且要做好是被买家大砍一刀的准备，否则很难卖…… 也有网友认为 按照如今的行情，便宜卖出便宜买进，想在同一时间高价卖出低价买进是不现实的事。 明明成交数据还不错，那为啥许多二手房东都觉得不好卖呢？这其实是现阶段买家和卖家的心理纠缠。买家捂紧荷包，左挑右选，总想着自己能再砍一 刀；而卖家死守价格，寄希望于市场还能翻一轮身 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses Jack Ma's recent acquisition of the "One Island East" building in Hong Kong for $925 million, contrasting it with his previous prediction in 2017 that housing prices would significantly decrease in the future [1][3][5] - The current real estate market in China shows a complex picture, with significant price drops in lower-tier cities while prime properties in major cities like Hong Kong remain resilient [3][5][6] Group 1: Market Trends - In 2017, during a peak in China's real estate market, Jack Ma predicted that housing would become very affordable, with average property prices in major cities rising by 12.7% year-on-year [3] - Recent data indicates that median housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities have dropped by 18%, while prime properties in first-tier cities have seen minimal declines [3][5] - Hong Kong's luxury residential prices increased by 3.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the resilience of high-end real estate [3] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - The acquisition is viewed as a strategic move for asset allocation, as prime real estate in Hong Kong is considered a "hard currency" amid global inflation pressures [5] - The annual rental yield for top-tier residential properties in Hong Kong is stable at 2.5%-3%, which is higher than the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds [5] - The property will serve as an international business hub for Alibaba and Ant Group, leveraging Hong Kong's legal framework and capital flow advantages for global operations [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the fragmented nature of the real estate market, where different regions and property types behave differently, supporting the view that real estate is not a single market but a collection of segmented markets influenced by various factors [5][6] - The contrasting scenarios in different regions, such as affordable housing in shrinking cities versus high prices in financial hubs, illustrate the complexity of the current real estate landscape [5][6]

管涛 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 最新经济季报数据显示，今年以来我国经济运行总体平稳，生产端和需求端各有亮点，但三季度以来消 费投资双弱势头较为明显，内生增长动能不足问题仍然突出。展望四季度，在外需对经济增长拉动作用 可能减弱的背景下，内需接棒外需的必要性增强。 为保障"十四五"规划圆满收官，为"十五五"规划平稳开局打好基础，宏观政策在持续发力的同时或需适 时加力。 国内经济进一步迎难而上 前三季度，我国实际国内生产总值（GDP）累计同比增长5.2%，较上年同期高出0.4个百分点，较上半 年同比升幅的优势进一步扩大了0.1个百分点，为实现全年5%左右的增长目标和"十四五"规划顺利收官 奠定了坚实基础。在外部经贸遏压不断升级、内部新旧动能转换存在阵痛的情况下，这一成绩来之不 易。具体来看，前三季度生产端和需求端各有亮点。 工业发展质效提升。前三季度，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%，较上年同期和全年增速高出0.4个 百分点。其中，9月份工业增加值同比增速结束此前两个月回落态势，增长6.5%，环比上升1.3个百分 点。工业结构进一步优化，制造业高端化、智能化转型步伐加快。前三季度，高技术制造业增加值同比 增长9.6 ...

Economic Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development and substantial improvements in self-reliance in technology[8] - The plan emphasizes deepening reforms, enhancing social civilization, improving living standards, and advancing ecological progress[8] - The economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5% annually, maintaining a focus on stability despite challenges[9] Industrial and Economic Trends - Industrial production is improving, with a blast furnace operating rate reaching 84.71%[25] - Real estate sales rebounded post-holiday, with a weekly transaction area of 2 million square meters in 30 major cities, a month-on-month increase of over 50%[25] - Vegetable prices are experiencing seasonal increases, while the SCFI shipping index continues to rise significantly[25] Financial Market Insights - As of October 24, major global risk assets are recovering, with the A-share market showing a slow bull trend supported by policy measures[37] - The RMB's share in global payment currencies rose to 3.17% in September, improving its ranking by one position from August[37] - The U.S. CPI growth in September was below expectations, reinforcing the outlook for a potential interest rate cut in October, which positively impacted U.S. stock markets[37] Policy and Economic Support - The LPR interest rate remains unchanged, and MLF has been increased for eight consecutive months, with 189.35 billion yuan allocated for new policy financial tools as of October 17[47] - The government is focusing on enhancing employment quality, income distribution, and social security systems to improve living standards during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, a downturn in the real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions[4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 8,672 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 41 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of 48.762 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [3] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28 [3] Group 2 - The earnings reports for major A-share companies will be released next week, with notable companies like Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke, and Sinopec expected to report [5] - A total of 4,347 listed companies are scheduled to disclose their Q3 reports from October 27 to 31, with 1,087 companies having already reported as of October 25 [5] - Among the companies that have reported, 647 have shown a year-on-year profit increase, accounting for approximately 59.52% [5] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports next week [6] - Caterpillar and Boeing are also expected to release earnings that could significantly impact the market [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [7] - Investors will focus on the Fed's language following the decision to gauge future rate cut signals [7] Group 5 - The 2025 APEC Leaders' Meeting will take place from October 31 to November 1 in South Korea, with discussions on U.S.-China relations anticipated [6] - A trade negotiation delegation from China will visit Malaysia for discussions on economic relations with the U.S. [6]

工业发展质效提升。前三季度，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%，较上年同期和全年增速高出0.4个 百分点。其中，9月份工业增加值同比增速结束此前两个月回落态势，增长6.5%，环比上升1.3个百分 点。工业结构进一步优化，制造业高端化、智能化转型步伐加快。前三季度，高技术制造业增加值同比 增长9.6%，规上数字产品制造业增加值增长9.7%，均远高于整体工业增加值增速。同期，机器人减速 器、工业机器人、服务机器人等产品产量分别增长1.2倍、29.8%、16.3%。工业企业经营效益显著改 善。1~8月，规上工业企业利润总额同比增长0.9%，扭转了此前三个月持续下滑态势，其中制造业利润 总额同比增速由前值4.8%升至7.4%。 最新经济季报数据显示，今年以来我国经济运行总体平稳，生产端和需求端各有亮点，但三季度以来消 费投资双弱势头较为明显，内生增长动能不足问题仍然突出。展望四季度，在外需对经济增长拉动作用 可能减弱的背景下，内需接棒外需的必要性增强。 宏观政策在持续发力的同时或需适时加力。 为保障"十四五"规划圆满收官，为"十五五"规划平稳开局打好基础，宏观政策在持续发力的同时或需适 时加力。 国内经济进一步迎难而 ...