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一周财经大事记（2025年9月1日至2025年9月7日） 头条 重磅落下！深圳楼市大松绑，800万二套房贷利息可省51万 万众期待下，深圳楼市新政终于出台。9月5日晚间，深圳市住房和建设局、中国人民银行深圳市分行联 合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》。 南都·湾财社记者注意到，本次深圳政策重点从3个方面进行调整：放宽限购、松绑企业购房、优化信 贷。每一项调整都远超市场此前对"微调"的预期，力度直超北京、上海近期的楼市政策。 那么"深圳9.5楼市新政"到底能否为低迷的市场注入强心剂？对刚需买家、改善群体、企业购房者分别 意味着什么？又会对珠三角乃至全国楼市调控释放怎样的信号？ 成分只有水售价上百元！温泉水喷雾被指智商税，理肤泉回应 近日，理肤泉旗下爆款单品"舒缓调理温泉水喷雾"因成分表引发网络热议。有网友在社交平台上提出质 疑，理肤泉舒缓调理温泉水喷雾是"智商税"，原因是该产品的成分只有"水"，并称"如果只是把水装进 喷雾瓶里，为什么要卖到上百元？"随后，"理肤泉上百元喷雾被指成本只有水"等相关话题迅速登上热 搜。 擅自销售未经强制性认证的电芯！安普瑞斯被罚没约375万 国家企业信用信息公示系 ...

Market Overview - After a continuous rise, the market experienced a correction this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.83%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35% [1] Sector Performance - This week saw a rapid shift in market hotspots, particularly with significant fluctuations in heavyweight blue-chip sectors such as banks, brokerages, liquor, healthcare, and real estate, alongside a sharp decline in military and high-yield insurance stocks. In contrast, small-cap stocks showed strength [3] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The market outlook appears contradictory; after a substantial rise, the Shanghai Composite Index is facing resistance at the 3900-point level, indicating a potential for short-term correction. Additionally, the public fund fee reform has led to significant reductions in custody and transaction fees [3] - Two hypotheses are proposed: first, the correction may continue to be exaggerated and will require time; second, after the correction, there is a probability of a rapid rebound, with indices potentially surpassing recent highs, particularly the ChiNext Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Investment Strategy - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, suggesting that investors with satisfactory returns may consider taking profits or reallocating their portfolios. For the medium to long term, a strategy of buying on small dips is advised to lower holding costs [3]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.90%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.04 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.68%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential decrease in new loans for August[11] - New loans in August are expected to be between 800 billion and 850 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion to 50 billion CNY[15] - Government bond financing in August is projected at 1.33 trillion CNY, down 510 billion CNY year-on-year[15] Real Estate Market - As of September 6, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai aim to ease purchase restrictions, which may stabilize the real estate market[7] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for automotive tires has decreased, with full steel tires at 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points from last week[16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.91 CNY/kg, down 0.05 CNY/kg from last week, while the price of key monitored vegetables is 5.08 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg[40] Export and Shipping - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export shipping costs[34] - South Korea's export growth rate for August is 1.30%, down 4.60 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown in export performance[34]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a prolonged adjustment period since 2022, with average national housing prices declining by over 30%, significantly impacting families with multiple properties [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The decline in housing prices has been felt across various cities, with second and third-tier cities experiencing sharper declines, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region where prices have dropped by more than 50% [1]. - The proportion of families owning two or more properties has exceeded 45%, facing unprecedented challenges in liquidating their assets [1][3]. - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with cities like Chongqing seeing nearly 340,000 second-hand homes listed for sale, while buyer demand continues to shrink [3]. Group 2: Financial Burdens on Homeowners - Families with multiple properties are struggling with heavy mortgage payments, which have become burdensome as incomes decline [3][6]. - The average monthly mortgage payment has surpassed 12,000 yuan, with first-tier city families often paying over 20,000 yuan, consuming more than 70% of their income [6]. - The cost of maintaining properties is rising, with monthly property fees for larger homes reaching 200 to 300 yuan, and additional costs for heating and maintenance increasing annually by 5% to 10% [7]. Group 3: Rental Market Challenges - The expectation of using rental income to cover mortgage payments is becoming increasingly difficult, especially in third and fourth-tier cities where rental demand is low [8][10]. - In major cities like Shanghai, rental prices have decreased, making it harder for homeowners to rely on rental income to alleviate financial pressure [10]. Group 4: Psychological and Social Impacts - The financial strain from high mortgage debts is leading to significant psychological stress, with individuals facing anxiety and depression at rates three times higher than the general population [14]. - Many families are forced to cut back on essential expenses, including education and healthcare, due to the financial burden of their mortgages [14]. Group 5: Risks of Default - The risk of default is a growing concern, with some homeowners considering extreme measures like "defaulting" on their loans, which can lead to severe financial and legal repercussions [15]. - A case study illustrates the potential losses and long-term damage to credit scores that can result from defaulting on mortgage payments, highlighting the precarious situation many homeowners find themselves in [15].

Core Viewpoint - The prediction that housing prices will rise to 4-5 times their current levels by 2030 is deemed exaggerated and lacks reliable factual support, with mainstream forecasts suggesting more moderate increases instead [1][9][17]. Source of Predictions - The prediction of housing prices reaching 4-5 times is based on three main sources: a report from a real estate consulting firm, a personal opinion article, and a viral video from a self-proclaimed expert, with varying degrees of credibility [2]. Factors Influencing Housing Prices - Population changes are a key factor, with China's population expected to stabilize around 1.45 billion by 2030, leading to a gradual slowdown in housing demand growth [4]. - The reform of the household registration system has facilitated population movement and housing demand, with 47 cities adjusting their policies in 2024 and more following in 2025 [5]. - Economic growth and income levels are crucial, with GDP growth projected at 4.5%-5% annually and urban residents' disposable income increasing by 4%-4.5% [5]. - Land supply and housing policies are also significant, with a 7.3% increase in residential land supply in 2024 and an 8.1% increase in early 2025, contributing to price stability [5]. - Financial environment and monetary policy adjustments, such as reduced mortgage rates, provide liquidity support to the housing market [5]. Mainstream Predictions for 2030 - Optimistic forecasts suggest an average national price increase of 80%-120%, with some hot city areas potentially rising to 2-3 times current prices [8]. - Neutral predictions estimate a 40%-60% increase, while cautious forecasts predict a maximum increase of 30%, with some cities possibly experiencing price declines [8]. Issues with Extreme Predictions - Predictions of a 4-5 times increase often rely on simplistic historical extrapolation, ignoring the current economic and market conditions [9]. - They tend to overlook income growth constraints, as rising prices beyond income growth can lead to market imbalances [9]. - These predictions underestimate the impact of policy regulations aimed at stabilizing housing prices [11]. - They may be based on specific regions or periods that do not represent broader market trends [11]. Recommendations for Housing Decisions - Emphasizing the residential nature of housing, with 75.3% of respondents prioritizing basic living needs over investment [12]. - Advising financial planning to ensure housing costs remain within 30%-40% of household income [12]. - Encouraging consideration of city development plans and location choices, as these factors significantly influence future price trends [12]. - Suggesting diversification of investment to mitigate risks associated with real estate [12]. - Promoting rational decision-making, avoiding panic or blind adherence to extreme predictions [13]. Market Trends and Future Considerations - Noting potential regional price differentiation, with about 20% of cities expected to see rapid growth, 60% moderate increases, and 20% declines [15]. - Highlighting the impact of urbanization and the shift in housing demand due to technological advancements and climate change [16].

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of decline, with new home transaction area in 100 key cities dropping by 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and over 90 cities experiencing a continuous decline in second-hand home prices for seven months [3][5] - The average price of newly built residential properties in 300 cities was 15,872 yuan per square meter in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 2.7% decrease year-on-year [5] - The oversupply of housing and stagnant income growth have led to a lack of confidence among buyers, with many investors opting to cash out as the myth of guaranteed profits in real estate fades [5] Group 2: Automotive Market - The automotive market is experiencing intense competition, with domestic brands reducing prices by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, and even luxury imported cars offering discounts of 80,000 to 100,000 yuan [7] - In the first half of 2025, China's automotive production and sales reached 13.895 million and 13.768 million units respectively, indicating a significant shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market [7] - The automotive industry is facing overcapacity, with a utilization rate of approximately 66%, well below the reasonable threshold of 80% [7] Group 3: Small Appliances Market - The small appliances market has seen an overall price drop of 10-15% in the first half of 2025, with some brands offering promotions at half price [9] - The retail sales of small appliances reached 125.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [9] - Consumers are becoming more pragmatic, focusing on practicality and durability rather than frequently upgrading to new models, influenced by rapid technological advancements [9] Group 4: Pork Market - Pork prices have significantly decreased, with current market prices ranging from 17 to 20 yuan per kilogram, down from previous highs of 40 yuan [10][11] - The decline in pork prices is attributed to the recovery of pig production capacity and relatively weak demand, with the national pig inventory increasing by 5.7% year-on-year as of June 2025 [10] - The wholesale price of pork in June 2025 was 21.5 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month decrease of 6.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [16]

来源：@央视财经微博 【#北上深一个月内都放宽限购了##深圳市民连夜预约看房#】#深圳房地产新政来了#。在深圳宝安的一 家房地产中介门店内，几乎所有的经纪人都在打电话约带看，这里的负责人告诉记者，从昨天晚上开始 就不断有客户在线上咨询看房，受到限购政策松绑的影响，门店咨询量和带看量，今天都有了明显提 升。据了解，除了进一步放宽限购区域，新政再次优化调整了个人住房信贷政策。按照深圳此前施行的 利率，二套住房利率为3.45%，新政后首套住房、二套住房利率将统一为3.05%。除了深圳，近期北京 和上海也先后放宽购房政策，至此，一个月内已有三个一线城市放宽限购政策。 ...

Core Insights - Insurance funds have significantly increased their presence in the A-share market, with nearly 800 companies listed among the top ten shareholders as of June 2025, and over 280 stocks being increased in the second quarter alone [2][3] - The total investment scale of insurance funds reached 36 trillion yuan by the end of the second quarter of 2025, with stock investments amounting to 3.07 trillion yuan, a net increase of approximately 640 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - The seven major A+H listed insurance companies have a combined investment scale of 21.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 60.30% of the total industry [2] - The stock investment scale of these companies reached 2.05 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 431.3 billion yuan, representing 67.39% of the industry's net increase [3] - Insurance funds are increasingly allocating to equity assets due to declining risk-free returns, with different companies showing varied strategies in their asset allocation [4][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Actions - China Ping An saw the largest increase in stock investment, with a net increase of 211.9 billion yuan, raising its proportion by 2.9 percentage points [4] - China Life's stock investment increased by 119.1 billion yuan, with a 1.1 percentage point rise in proportion [4] - Sunshine Insurance has the highest stock investment proportion among the seven companies at 14.1%, with a 23.9% increase [4] Group 3: Sector Preferences - As of mid-2025, insurance funds have allocated nearly 1 trillion yuan to high-dividend other comprehensive income (OCI) stocks, with a significant increase in the proportion of OCI stocks in their portfolios [6] - The top five sectors for insurance fund holdings include banking, transportation, communication, real estate, and utilities, with the media, communication, and utilities sectors seeing the largest increases in holdings [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Insurance funds have engaged in 30 "block trades" since the beginning of 2025, with the banking sector being the most active [8] - The shift in accounting standards is expected to influence the stability of insurance companies' net profits, prompting a greater focus on OCI asset allocation [9] - Recent policy changes have encouraged insurance companies to invest more in the A-share market, with a target of 30% of new premiums allocated annually [10]

Core Insights - The desire for homeownership remains a strong aspiration among young people in China, reflecting the development of urban economies [1] - Economic changes have led to a shift in housing preferences, with many young individuals seeking affordable options in smaller cities rather than major metropolitan areas [4][10] Group 1: Housing Market Trends - High housing prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have pushed young buyers to consider surrounding areas and smaller cities [2][3] - There has been a notable increase in first-time home loan applications in third-tier and lower cities, with a 22% year-on-year growth reported for Q1 2025, and 71% of applicants being under 35 years old [10] Group 2: Individual Experiences - April, a young professional, faced job loss and limited savings, prompting her to explore home buying in smaller cities, leading her to purchase a property in Shandong for only 13,500 yuan [9][11] - Despite the low cost, April's experience revealed significant issues with the property, including poor layout and sound insulation, leading her to sell it shortly after [28][30][33] Group 3: Psychological Aspects of Homeownership - For individuals like April and photographer Ni Lu, the concept of owning a home transcends financial investment, providing a sense of security and belonging [34][35] - Ni Lu's journey to buy a home in Japan highlights the emotional fulfillment associated with homeownership, despite potential risks and challenges in property conditions [20][27]