Core Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August is 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the sector, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 1: Business Activity Indices - The construction industry business activity index is at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month [1] - The services industry business activity index is at 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month [1] - Several sectors, including rail transport, water transport, air transport, telecommunications, and capital market services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating high levels of activity [1] - Retail and real estate sectors have business activity indices below the critical point, indicating contraction [1] Group 2: New Orders and Demand - The new orders index is at 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, suggesting an improvement in market demand [1] - The construction new orders index is at 40.6%, down 2.1 percentage points from last month [1] - The services new orders index is at 47.7%, up 1.4 percentage points from last month [1] Group 3: Input Prices and Sales Prices - The input prices index is at 50.3%, unchanged from last month, indicating a continued rise in input prices for non-manufacturing businesses [1] - The construction input prices index is at 54.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month [1] - The services input prices index is at 49.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month [1] - The sales prices index is at 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [2] - The construction sales prices index is at 49.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month [2] - The services sales prices index is at 48.5%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month [2] Group 4: Employment and Expectations - The employment index is at 45.6%, unchanged from last month, indicating weak employment conditions in the non-manufacturing sector [2] - The construction employment index is at 43.6%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month [2] - The services employment index is at 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month [2] - The business activity expectations index is at 56.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting optimism among non-manufacturing businesses regarding market prospects [2] - The construction business activity expectations index is at 51.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month [2] - The services business activity expectations index is at 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to July [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, showing continued strength in these sectors [3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, reflecting a significant recovery [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, due to adverse weather conditions [6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector was 57.0%, suggesting optimism among service enterprises regarding future market prospects [5] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Analysts expect that the combination of policy support and market self-recovery will continue to release domestic demand potential in the coming months [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showed signs of improvement in August, indicating a recovery in economic activity [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [4]. - The production index for August stands at 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, remaining above the critical point for four consecutive months, indicating accelerated production activities [4]. - Key industries such as high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw their PMIs rise to 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, with increases of 1.3 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, highlighting the strengthening of new growth drivers [4]. - Large enterprises continue to show expansion in their PMI, with an acceleration in the pace of growth, while small enterprises also experienced an improvement in their economic sentiment [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Summary - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August is at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5]. - The service industry business activity index reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, marking the highest point of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Supply contraction expectations continue to boost prices, but actual production remains relatively strong, necessitating attention to the effects of "anti-involution" policies [2][69]. Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI slightly improved, with a rise of 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, aligning with seasonal performance. The major raw material purchase price index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53.3%, and the factory price index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 49.1% [2][8][70]. - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%, while the new orders index saw a modest rise of 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%. Internal demand and new export orders both experienced slight increases [14][70]. - High-energy-consuming industries and equipment manufacturing saw PMIs rise to 48.2% and 50.5%, respectively, driven by price increases and improved external demand. High-tech manufacturing PMI rose by 1.3 percentage points to 51.9% [21][70]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector PMI improved significantly, rising by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, driven by summer travel. However, the construction sector PMI fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.1%, marking a five-year low [24][71][29]. - The new orders index in the service sector increased by 1.4 percentage points to 47.7%, while the construction new orders index dropped sharply by 2.1 percentage points to 40.6% [62][71]. Future Outlook - Price indices have shown continuous improvement, but supply has not exhibited significant contraction, remaining better than demand. Future focus should be on the effects of "anti-involution" policies [33][71]. - Unlike the supply-side reform in 2016, the current situation requires attention to mid- and downstream supply, especially in cases where upstream price transmission to downstream is ineffective [33][71].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3][4] - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production [3][4] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, suggesting a gradual recovery in demand [3][4] - Large enterprises show a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, showing some improvement [4] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices are at 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both increasing from July, indicating a general improvement in market prices [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which is a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous month [5][6] - The service sector's business activity index has risen to 50.5%, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase and reaching a yearly high [6][7] - The construction sector's business activity index has decreased to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic sentiment remains positive, with the composite PMI output index indicating continued expansion, driven by both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [7] - Market expectations are improving, with the production and business activity expectation indices for manufacturing and services at 53.7% and 57%, respectively, suggesting optimism among enterprises [4][6]

Economic Recovery Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from last month, continuing to show expansion [2][11] Price Trends - The purchasing price index for major raw materials in August is 53.3%, up by 1.8 percentage points, marking three consecutive months of increase, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up by 0.8 percentage points, also showing a three-month upward trend [5][8] - The overall market price level in the manufacturing sector is improving, with the price indices for major industries showing upward momentum [8][9] Business Sentiment - The new orders index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, while the production index is at 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable expansion in production activities [6][7] - The production and business activity expectation index for August is at 53.7%, rising by 1.1 percentage points, suggesting improved market confidence across various sectors [7] Sector Performance - In the non-manufacturing sector, the service industry business activity index is at 50.5%, reaching a year-to-date high, with certain sectors like capital market services and transportation showing strong performance [11][14] - The construction industry, however, shows a decline in activity with a business activity index of 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions [14][15] Policy Impact - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to optimize market competition and alleviate supply-demand imbalances, supporting a positive price trajectory in the long term [9][10] - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating the revision of pricing laws and regulations to address irrational competition and enhance market order [10]

Core Viewpoint - Supply contraction expectations continue to boost prices, but actual production remains relatively strong, necessitating attention to the effects of "anti-involution" policies [2][69] Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI slightly improved, with a 0.1 percentage point increase to 49.4%, aligning with seasonal performance [2][70] - Major raw material purchase price index rose by 1.8 percentage points to 53.3%, and the factory price index increased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.1%, indicating a significant rebound in prices [2][70] - The production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%, while the new orders index only increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, suggesting that production is outpacing new orders [2][70] - High-energy-consuming industries saw a PMI increase of 0.2 percentage points to 48.2%, and equipment manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [3][21] - High-tech manufacturing PMI increased by 1.3 percentage points to 51.9%, with both production and new orders indices rising to around 54% [3][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector PMI improved significantly, rising by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, driven by summer travel and capital market services [3][71] - The construction sector PMI fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.1%, marking the lowest level in nearly five years, with the new orders index dropping by 2.1 percentage points to 40.6% [3][29][62] - Despite the decline in construction, the service sector's new orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points to 47.7% [3][53] Future Outlook - Price indices show continuous improvement, but supply has not shown significant contraction, and production remains better than demand, highlighting the need to monitor the effects of "anti-involution" policies [4][33] - The focus should shift to mid- and downstream supply, especially in cases where upstream price transmission to downstream is ineffective [4][33]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In August, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing at the bottom and non - manufacturing moderately recovering". Compared with the "double - weak" situation in July, the short - term economic downward risk may be alleviated. With the weakening of the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather, the continuous release of policy effects, and the influence of seasonal factors, the economy is expected to continue the recovery trend, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve month - on - month, which may weaken the downward driving force of long - term interest rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs August Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, continuing to expand. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the production index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, with continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, with insufficient market demand. The new export order index was 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, with foreign demand hovering at a low level [2]. - In terms of prices, the purchase price index of major raw materials was 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, rising for three consecutive months and in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, also rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest point this year. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI will continue to narrow, and the pressure on industrial product prices may be alleviated [2]. August Non - manufacturing - The service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, reaching the highest point this year. Industries such as capital market services, railway transportation, and aviation transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating that service enterprises were optimistic about the market [3]. - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, in the contraction range, mainly due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%, slightly higher than the previous month. Looking forward, with the weakening of the weather impact and the release of policies, the economy may continue to recover, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve [4].

Group 1 - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, indicating a slight recovery in economic sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production expansion [2] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.5%, showing a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, with certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics performing significantly better than the overall manufacturing sector [2] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, indicating sustained support and leadership in these sectors [3] - The production and business activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [3] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the new orders index rising to 46.6%, indicating a stabilization in supply and demand [4] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with sectors like capital market services showing particularly strong growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, but the business activity expectation index remained slightly above 50 at 51.7% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].