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金十整理:大限推迟,铜关税如“夜半惊雷”,特朗普让市场在“麻木”和“不确定”间反复横跳
news flash· 2025-07-09 12:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's tariffs have lost their market impact, and the delay in tariff deadlines is seen as a negotiation tactic rather than a genuine policy change [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the market is becoming numb to the erratic policies of the Trump administration, leading to a potential oversight of the risks associated with industry tariffs [1][3] - The extension of the tariff deadline until August 1 has led traders to believe that the likelihood of sudden tariff imposition is decreasing, reinforcing the view that Trump is committed to reaching a trade agreement [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has paralyzed decision-making for companies trying to adapt to the changing tariff landscape, as executives are working to adjust supply chains and cost structures to avoid price increases [3] - Market sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing uncertainty, with analysts indicating that the market may become more volatile leading up to August 1 due to increased trade-related headlines [3]
渣打银行:大湾区企业当前营商表现仍具韧性 下半年展望趋审慎
智通财经网· 2025-07-09 11:14
主题问题方面,仅约10%的受访者表示美国加征关税对其业务造成实质直接影响。值得注意的是,关税 暂缓及豁免措施在一定程度上减轻了冲击,可见维持中美贸易休战十分重要,也凸显了在第三季度迅速 敲定其他双边贸易协议的必要性。 在营商影响方面,41%的受访者表示因美国加征关税,将延迟落实业务计划。其他主要影响包括"物流 或海关流程严重受阻,变数太多难以应对"(35%),以及"生意流失,客户转投其他较少受关税影响的 市场"(30%)。同时,32%的受访者表示会增加内销,是最常见应对美国关税冲击及相关不确定性的 方式。 智通财经APP获悉,渣打银行与香港贸易发展局联合公布最新的渣打大湾区营商景气指数(GBAI), 显示大湾区企业当前的营商表现在美国"解放日"关税冲击后仍具韧性,主要受惠于提前安排的订单及生 产活动。同时,企业在季内对未来展望持审慎态度,整体预期有所放缓但仍属正面。 香港贸发局研究总监范婉儿表示:"虽然调查是在4月美国'解放日'对全球多国提高关税后不久进行,并 未涵盖近期的所有发展,但调查结果显示,大湾区企业具备韧性,可应对美国关税措施带来的影响。约 75%至80%的大湾区企业表示受到美国关税的负面影响,主要 ...
警惕全球贸易“逆风”!两大国际机构发声
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-09 10:34
从预计"扩大"到"下调",世界贸易组织对全球贸易发出最新评估。 近日,世界贸易组织(简称"世贸组织")发布《贸易监测更新:最新趋势》报告,对2024年10月中旬至 2025年5月中旬全球贸易和贸易相关政策最新发展进行了评估。 上述报告指出,当前全球贸易政策活动增加,主要贸易伙伴间紧张局势不断加剧。与此同时,贸易不确 定性增加,区域冲突和地缘政治紧张局势加剧,共同导致了全球贸易环境波动和不可预测性增加。 另外,联合国贸易和发展会议(简称"贸发会议")8日发布报告称,尽管今年上半年全球贸易预计增长 3000亿美元,但受美国贸易政策不确定性以及全球地缘政治紧张等因素影响,今年下半年全球贸易将面 临越来越大的阻力,不确定性增大。 世贸组织呼吁减少关税和其他贸易壁垒 世贸组织警告说,在某些情况下,比如美国所谓"对等关税"完全付诸实施,或者贸易政策不确定性在全 球范围内蔓延,贸易收缩将有可能发生。 对全球贸易担忧的还有贸发会议。7月8日,贸发会议发布报告称,尽管今年上半年全球贸易预计增长 3000亿美元,但受美国贸易政策不确定性以及全球地缘政治紧张等因素影响,今年下半年全球贸易将面 临越来越大的阻力,不确定性增大。 报告 ...
警惕全球贸易“逆风”!两大国际机构发声
证券时报· 2025-07-09 10:29
从预计"扩大"到"下调",世界贸易组织对全球贸易发出最新评估。 近日,世界贸易组织(简称"世贸组织")发布《贸易监测更新:最新趋势》报告,对2024年10月中旬至2025年5月中旬全球贸易和贸易相关政策最新发展进 行了评估。 上述报告指出,当前全球贸易政策活动增加,主要贸易伙伴间紧张局势不断加剧。与此同时,贸易不确定性增加,区域冲突和地缘政治紧张局势加剧,共同 导致了全球贸易环境波动和不可预测性增加。 另外,联合国贸易和发展会议(简称"贸发会议")8日发布报告称,尽管今年上半年全球贸易预计增长3000亿美元,但受美国贸易政策不确定性以及全球地缘 政治紧张等因素影响,今年下半年全球贸易将面临越来越大的阻力,不确定性增大。 世贸组织指出,自今年年初以来,美国采取了一系列双边和全球贸易措施,作为回应,一些经济体宣布引入贸易便利化措施,而其他国家则实施或宣布了其 引入报复性措施的计划。 其中,加拿大对美国实施了报复性措施,欧盟也宣布了采取报复性措施的计划,大部分措施都涉及关税增加。报告预计,由于美国采取的一系列贸易措施以 及贸易伙伴的回应,贸易紧张局势将进一步加剧,导致全球贸易量下降。地区冲突和地缘政治紧张局势也可能 ...
和顺石油: 北京市中伦(深圳)律师事务所关于湖南和顺石油股份有限公司2024年限制性股票激励计划回购注销实施的法律意见书
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-09 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter confirms that Hunan Heshun Petroleum Co., Ltd. has obtained the necessary approvals for the repurchase and cancellation of part of its restricted stock under the 2024 incentive plan, which is in compliance with relevant regulations and the company's articles of association [4][9]. Group 1: Approval and Authorization - The repurchase and cancellation of restricted stock have been approved through various resolutions, including the 2024 incentive plan draft and related proposals [4][5]. - The company has completed the creditor notification process, and no objections were raised during the public notice period [5][6]. - The repurchase and cancellation have received the necessary approvals and are in line with the Management Measures [5][6]. Group 2: Specifics of the Repurchase and Cancellation - The repurchase is due to the failure to meet performance targets for the first release period of the incentive plan, resulting in the cancellation of 1,488,000 shares for 96 incentive recipients [6][8]. - The repurchase price is set at 9.24 yuan per share plus applicable bank interest, with adjustments for any corporate actions affecting stock prices [6][8]. - The company has established a dedicated securities account for the repurchase and expects to complete the cancellation by July 14, 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that the repurchase and cancellation process is compliant with the Management Measures, the company's articles of association, and the incentive plan arrangements [9].
和顺石油: 和顺石油关于2024年限制性股票激励计划部分限制性股票回购注销实施公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-09 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The company announced the repurchase and cancellation of 1,488,000 restricted stocks due to unmet performance targets in the 2024 incentive plan, which did not allow for the lifting of restrictions on these stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Repurchase and Cancellation Details - The repurchase and cancellation of restricted stocks were approved during the board and supervisory meetings held on April 24, 2025, based on the company's performance not meeting the required standards [1][2]. - The repurchase involves 96 individuals, including 2 directors and 2 senior management personnel, with a total of 1,488,000 shares being repurchased at a price of 9.24 yuan per share plus bank interest [3][4]. - The cancellation of these shares is expected to be completed by July 14, 2025, with necessary legal procedures to follow [4][5]. Group 2: Performance Criteria - The performance criteria for lifting the restrictions included a minimum of 10% growth in either total refined oil sales or net profit compared to 2023 [2][3]. - The company did not meet these performance targets, leading to the inability to lift restrictions on the granted restricted stocks [3]. Group 3: Capital Structure Changes - Following the repurchase and cancellation, the company's capital structure will change, with the number of restricted shares decreasing from 2,976,000 to 1,488,000, while the total shares will reduce from 173,394,000 to 171,906,000 [4][5]. Group 4: Compliance and Commitments - The board confirmed that the decision-making process and information disclosure comply with relevant regulations and internal management measures [4][5]. - The company has committed to ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the information regarding the repurchase and cancellation process [5].
Labubu爆火之后,去义乌的年轻人赚翻了
创业邦· 2025-07-09 09:55
以下文章来源于新周刊 ,作者玛丽奥 新周刊 . 中国最新锐的生活方式周刊。 来源丨 新周刊(ID:new-weekly) 作者丨 玛丽奥 编辑丨 曾宝气 图源丨Midjourney 近年来,义乌吸引了不少Z世代前去创业,他们逐渐形成一个庞大的群体——"乌漂"。他们日夜不停 地为义乌·中国小商品指数(简称"义乌指数")贡献着自己的力量,不少人在这里治好了精神内耗, 因为这里不讲"底层逻辑""颗粒度",只讲实干。 南瓜是90后,义乌本地人。接受采访的时候,她刚带完两天一夜的"义乌游学团"回来,但仍然激情四 射,语速飞快,像 台不知 疲倦的永动机。 近两年来,她一直从事着由义乌国际商贸城衍生的新兴产业,因为她发现越来越多人想要走近这座城 市——有人想开启自己的小生意,有人想摸索社交平台上的电商,也有人想搭建桥梁做跨境贸易。于 是她干脆组团带大家逛店铺、跑源头工厂 ,让想创业的人在最短的时间里快速找到这个城市的赚钱秘 籍。 这也是南瓜的第一次创业。她原本是杭州的上班族,命运的转折源于一次"无心插柳":有一次,她在 社交平台上随手分享义乌商品的帖子,意外爆火,收获了四五千个"赞",商品订单随之涌来。不久之 后,她刚好被 ...
特朗普关税政策搅动贸易格局 美国难成赢家
Zhong Guo Qing Nian Bao· 2025-07-09 06:39
Group 1 - The U.S. government is set to send notifications regarding tariffs to approximately 100 countries, threatening higher rates if no action is taken by August 1 [1][2] - The unilateral actions by the U.S. are expected to impact both domestic financial markets and the global trade system, exacerbating international trade tensions [1][3] - Countries such as Japan and South Korea are actively seeking negotiations to avoid escalation into a full-blown trade war, indicating a significant diplomatic response to U.S. tariff threats [2][3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies are undermining consumer and investor confidence in the U.S. economy, potentially leading to increased inflation and economic instability [3][4] - The additional costs from tariffs are likely to impact Southeast Asian economies, particularly affecting U.S. companies operating in the region, especially in the apparel and footwear sectors [4][5] - The current trade dynamics are shifting, with countries increasingly looking towards China and multilateral cooperation as the U.S. becomes a less reliable partner [5][6]
关注中国6月通胀数据和欧佩克国际研讨会
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:15
Market Analysis - 5月国内数据好坏参半,投资数据走弱,地产边际压力增加,出口承压,仅消费表现有韧性,6月制造业PMI有所回升但经济企稳基础需夯实 [2] - 6月中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金,外汇储备稳步提升 [2] - 关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能 [2] - 特朗普对14个国家发出关税税率威胁,签署行政命令延长“对等关税”暂缓期至8月1日,白宫官员称特定国家关税不叠加征收 [2][7] - 日本和韩国对美方决定表示“遗憾”,均愿通过谈判解决问题,特朗普称将与印度达成协议,欧盟与美国贸易磋商紧张进行,美财长拟与中方会谈 [2][7] - 特朗普发布清洁能源行政命令,授意财政部收紧相关税收制度 [2][7] Macro Inflation - 特朗普签署法案使美国政府债务未来十年或增3.4万亿美元,美国政策转向“易松难紧”阶段,国内中央财经委会议使市场通胀交易升温 [3] - 海外通胀预期受货币主导,美国6月非农数据超预期使美联储重启宽松不顺畅,国内通胀核心在供给侧,需更多行业压产细节政策确定通胀交易主线 [3] Commodity Sector - 7月2日100吨铜抵达香港仓库,7月15日起可用于LME合约交割,标志LME在中国内地周边建仓储网络进展 [4][7] - 国内供给侧敏感的是黑色和新能源金属板块,海外通胀预期受益显著的是能源和有色板块 [4] - 黑色板块受下游需求预期拖累,有色板块供给受限未缓解,能源短期地缘溢价结束,中期供给偏宽松,OPEC+8月增产54.8万桶/日 [4] - 农产品短期无天气扰动,波动空间有限 [4] Strategy - 工业品逢低多配 [5]
美国宣布加征关税,还给日本加码,日媒:粉碎日本对美国的幻想
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 04:43
Group 1 - The U.S. has taken a harsh stance against Japan, despite Japan's past support during the Gulf War and alignment with U.S. strategies in the Indo-Pacific region [1][3] - Japan's purchase of F-35 fighter jets is seen as both a payment for U.S. protection and a show of support for U.S. strategies [1] - The U.S. has previously exploited Japan's economy through the Plaza Accord, which forced the appreciation of the yen and weakened Japan's economic growth [3] Group 2 - Japan has overestimated its influence and the strength of its alliance with the U.S., leading to a lack of compromise in negotiations [5] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Japan, contrasting with its more lenient approach towards the UK, indicating a targeted strategy against Japan [7] - Japan's economic development has relied on U.S. industrial transfers, and the current U.S. policies are seen as a means to extract further economic benefits from Japan [9]