所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-30 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-04-30 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 就业数据疲弱，美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺创半年新低 观点分享： 美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示，美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人，预期 750 万 人，2 月前值从 756.8 万人下修至 748 万人。3 月数据低于媒体调查的所有经济学家的预测。 该指标是美联储高度关注的劳动力市场数据。自 2022 年以来，此数据基本呈下行趋势，而 此前几个月，伴随着美联储降息，JOLTS 数据一度出现反弹。特朗普就职三个月来的一系列 操作加剧了经济运行的不确定性，当前 JOLTS 职位空缺水平已接近 2020 年时的水平。特朗 普削减联邦政府规模的举措对美国劳动力市场产生了明显的影响，而在关税大战正酣之际， 企业也正在搁置支出计划，劳动力需求必然受到负面影响。在此背景下，即将发布的美国第 一季度 GDP 初值恐难以"great again"。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 集运指数（欧线） ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：601969 证券简称：海南矿业 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）保证季度报告中财务信息的真 实、准确、完整。 第一季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、 主要财务数据 (一) 主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：千元 币种：人民币 (二) 非经常性损益项目和金额 √适用 □不适用 单位:千元 币种:人民币 对公司将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号——非经常性损益》未列举的项目认定为非 经常性损益项目且金额重大的，以及将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号——非经常性 损益》中列举的非经常性损益项目界定为经常性损益的项目，应说明原因。 □适用 √不适用 (三) 主要会计数据、财务指标发生变动的情况、原因 √适用 □ ...

智通财经4月29日电，矿业巨头福德士河发布财报：2025财年三季度铁矿石总发货量为4610万吨，同比 增长6%，使得截至2025年3月31日的九个月的累计发货量创下1.432亿吨的新纪录。 矿业巨头福德士河铁矿石产运量创新高 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-04-29 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3129元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3237元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，全 国库存为882.11万吨，环比上周减少2.47%。其中，钢材库存环比减少5.11%，热卷环比增加2.69%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般，昨日全国建材成交12.05万吨。 综合来看：螺纹目前基本面表现良好，产量增长受到利润压制，消费维持韧性，库存降幅扩大。热卷由于关税政 策拖累，板材产销均受到影响，尤其是冷轧和镀锌等相关性较高的品种，受到的冲击较为明显，由于国内钢材的 高性价比，后期可以通过转口等方式，化解部分对美的出口损失，但是需要时间逐步解决。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，铁矿小幅回落 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅回落。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于710.5/吨，跌幅0.49%。现货方面，唐山 港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性 ...

关注微信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 泉差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | 83 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 63 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3330 | -30 | 143 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3055 | 35 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3129 | 3101 | 28 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3157 | 3137 | 20 | 83 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 22 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3240 | 0 | -18 | | | 热卷 ...

【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉+3至764元/吨，巴混粉+6至778元/吨。 【期货】 截止昨日收盘，铁矿主力合约+0.21%（+1.5），收于710.5元/吨。 【库存】 截至4月24日，45港库存14261万吨，环比+205万吨；周内铁矿到港量环比回升，港口卸货效率提升， 港口有所累库，且压港船只数量依旧偏高。钢厂进口矿库存环比+20.11至9073.03万吨，进口矿日耗环 比小幅增加，钢厂维持原料低库存策略。 【观点】 最优交割品为巴混。PB粉和巴混粉仓单成本分别为809元和797元。05合约PB粉基差46.6元/吨左右。 【需求】 日均铁水产量244.35万吨，环比+4.23万吨；高炉开工率84.33%，环比+0.77%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 91.60%，环比+1.45个百分点；钢厂盈利率57.58%，环比+2.60百分点。 【供给】 本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运+262.7万吨至3188.2万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2758.4万吨， 环比增加320.6万吨。澳洲发运量1995.2万吨，环比增加196.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1647.2万吨， 环比增加72.9万 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月29日08时15分 报告导读： 目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，但对钢坯出口影响有限，当前钢坯利润较好。上周五中央召开政治局会议， 强调降准降息，创设新的政策和金融工具，昨日国新办表示，政策大头将于二季度推出，提振市场信心。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度 快速回升，土地溢价提升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求 进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比有所回落。从空头的角度来 看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求将季节性回落，当前或已经见顶。从技术上看，最近两天期价上涨，持仓量下降，属于短线的反 弹行情，暂时没到反转时刻。 操作建议： 逢高做空为主，不可以追涨 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 17 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2679.60 万吨，环比增 230.40 万吨，再度回升，增量主要是澳矿，环比增 272.50 万吨，巴西矿则是环比增 14.50 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 56.30 万吨。 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄决胜千里 2、全球 19 港发运量 2、海外矿石发运大幅回升，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3188.20 万吨，环比增 262.70 万吨，重回年内 高位；增量主要源于主流矿商，四大矿商发运均有所增加，合计增 266.09 万吨，非澳巴地区发运降 57.90 万吨，延续回落并降至年内低位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应重回高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...