1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have significantly declined, and the basis has strengthened during the period. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend, while steel mill profits have converged. The decline in steel prices is mainly affected by the fall in raw material prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction, with weak downward momentum. However, the total demand is average, and the decline in hot - metal production suppresses raw material prices. Currently, steel prices are falling, and attention should be paid to the support near the lower limit of the range. The 5 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils should pay attention to the support levels of 3100 and 3200 respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the spread convergence arbitrage can be continued. Considering the decline in hot - metal production, which suppresses iron ore prices, the long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage of the January contract can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot - metal output decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of five major steel products, steel output decreased, inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand seasonally decreased. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, and the port clearance volume decreased, while the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking forward, this week, hot - metal output decreased, steel prices showed signs of bottom - rebounding, market expectations began to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a large decline in hot - metal output, which supports iron ore demand. Iron ore has support from downstream restocking on one hand and a need for basis repair on the other hand. Considering the high price level, iron ore futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to sell short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 750 - 820. The 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [6]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the first round of coke price cuts started to be implemented at 0:00 on December 1st, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coking coal varieties have continued to decline. Coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, coking profits have been repaired to some extent, and the operating rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, steel prices have fluctuated and rebounded, and steel mill profits have been repaired to some extent, with a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level, and the coke supply - demand situation has weakened. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - exploring stage. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to decline, Mongolian coal quotes fell, and the recent auction failure rate has fluctuated between 30 - 50%. Traders are cautious and the thermal coal market has continued to decline. The coal spot market has once again shifted to a loose situation. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to unsold products, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures price down, and the recent customs clearance has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, the coking profit has recovered, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The market's restocking demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking enterprises and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and ports have increased inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term contract coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the over - capacity pattern continues. In terms of strategy, coking coal spot prices have continued to fall, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the main contract has shifted to the Coking Coal 2605 contract. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have all declined. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils has shown different changes. For example, the basis of rebar in the East China region is 163, and the basis of hot - rolled coils in the East China region is - 10. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 40 to 2950, and plate billet prices remain unchanged at 3730. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar have both decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coils in the East China, North China, and South China regions, as well as the profits of rebar in different regions, have shown different changes, with some profits narrowing [2]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products has decreased by 26.8 to 829.0, a decline of 3.1%. The rebar output has decreased by 16.8 to 189.3, a decline of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output has decreased by 4.7 to 314.3, a decline of 1.5% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 35.2 to 1365.6, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory has decreased from 531.5 to 503.8, and hot - rolled coil inventory has slightly decreased from 400.9 to 400.4 [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume has decreased by 1.3 to 10.2, a decline of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products has decreased by 23.8 to 864.2, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar has decreased by 11.0 to 217.0, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 5.4 to 314.9, a decline of 1.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines have all decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore varieties has increased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.5 to 23.5, a decline of 6.0%, the 9 - 1 spread remains unchanged at - 41.5, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 1.5 to 18.0, an increase of 9.1% [6]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 218.8 to 2480.5, a decline of 8.1%, and the global shipment volume (weekly) has increased by 45.4 to 3368.6, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume has decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9, a decline of 4.3% [6]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 8.5 to 318.5, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron output has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel output has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [6]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (compared with Monday, weekly) has increased by 63.4 to 15300.81, an increase of 0.4%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) has increased by 42.3 to 8984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) have decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a decline of 5.0% [6]. Coke Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The prices of the 01 and 05 coke contracts have declined. The coking profit (weekly) has decreased from - 43 to - 54 [10]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has increased by 0.8 to 64.5, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.3 to 46.6, an increase of 0.6% [10]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0% [10]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has decreased slightly from 884.7 to 883.0. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants has increased from 71.8 to 76.4, an increase of 6.5%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased from 187.4 to 181.3, a decline of 3.3% [10]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has changed from - 1.3 to 2.2, an increase of 3.6 [10]. Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) have declined. The prices of the 01 and 05 coking coal contracts have declined. The coking coal profit (weekly) of sample coal mines has decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [10]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines has decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output has decreased by 0.6 to 438.2, a decline of 0.1% [10]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the production situation of coke. As the coking profit recovers, the operating rate of coking plants has slightly increased, but the overall demand has weakened due to the decline in hot - metal output [10]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines has increased from 107.6 to 127.6, an increase of 18.7%. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants has slightly decreased from 1010.3 to 1009.2, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased from 801.3 to 798.3, a decline of 0.4%, and the port inventory has increased [10].

日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月8日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

以收盘价统计，铁矿近月2601合约-7.0(-0.89%)，收于778.5元/吨，铁矿主力2605合约-8.5(-1.11%)收于 760.5，1-5价差走强至18.0，SGX铁矿掉期价格-1.1美元/吨(-1.07%)至101.9美元/吨。 【基差】 【现货】 截至12月8日收盘，主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉-4.0元/吨至783元/吨，卡粉-5.0元至865 元/吨。 【期货】 截至12月8日，港口库存累库，日均疏港量环比下降，钢厂进口矿库存环比上升。45港库存15300.81万 吨，环比+63.4万吨；45港日均疏港量318.5万吨/日，环比-8.5万吨/日；钢厂进口矿库存8984.73万吨，环 比+42.25万吨。 【观点】 最优交割品为卡粉。卡粉、PB粉、巴混粉和金布巴仓单成本分别为783.5元/吨、830.4元/吨、836.3元/吨 和829.5元/吨。01合约卡粉、PB粉、巴混和金布巴基差分别是5.0元/吨、51.9元/吨、57.8元/吨和51.0元/ 吨。 昨日铁矿期货震荡偏弱运行。供给端，上周铁矿石全球发运量环比上升，45港到港量下降。需求端，钢 厂减产持续，铁水产量下降， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 780, down 4 daily and 14 weekly; PB powder at 783, down 4 daily and 14 weekly; Mac powder at 773, down 2 daily and 14 weekly; Jinbuba at 736, down 4 daily and 14 weekly; mainstream mixed powder at 727, down 5 daily and 11 weekly; super special powder at 668, down 7 daily and 22 weekly; Roy Hill powder at 770, down 4 daily and 14 weekly; KUMBA powder at 842, down 4 daily and 14 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore at 814, down 6 daily and 14 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 at 753, down 4 daily and 21 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG at 758, down 4 daily and 21 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder at 865, down 10 daily and 20 weekly; 61% Indian powder at 725, down 4 daily and 14 weekly; Karara concentrate powder at 865, down 10 daily and 20 weekly; 57% Indian powder at 603, down 7 daily and 22 weekly; Atlas powder at 722, down 5 daily and 11 weekly; domestic Tangshan iron concentrate powder at 996, down 6 daily and 17 weekly [1] 3.2 Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 is at 778.5, down 7.0 daily and 22.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 41.5; i2605 at 760.5, down 8.5 daily and 17.0 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 18.0; i2609 at 737.0, down 7.0 daily and 15.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 23.5 [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 is at 103.39, down 0.87 daily and up 1.19 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 4.89; FE05 at 100.73, down 0.81 daily and up 1.17 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.66; FE09 at 98.50, down 0.74 daily and up 1.10 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.23 [1] 3.3 Other Information - **Platts 62 Index**: The latest value is 107.10, down 0.90 daily and up 1.10 weekly [1] - **Import Profits**: Newman powder's import profit is - 11.41; PB powder is - 18.73; Mac powder is 11.79; Jinbuba is 13.16; mainstream mixed powder is - 1.78; super special powder is - 19.95; Brazilian mixed ore is - 13.87; Roy Hill powder is 13.52 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday. Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the prices of finished steel products remained in a bottom - oscillating state. Terminal demand was still weak, but steel prices were gradually stabilizing. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was still prominent and difficult to significantly reduce in the short term. [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. There is still pressure for a phased decline within the price range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be at 750 yuan/ton. [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the trading focus is expected to return to the macro level. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] - The price of industrial silicon is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - The polysilicon market shows a situation of tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish approach is recommended. [18] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 46,276 tons, a net increase of 2135 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.477577 million lots, a net increase of 3036 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.078676 million lots, a net increase of 11,932 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar production decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. [2] - The production of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the apparent demand remained neutral. It was difficult to reduce the inventory, and the social inventory was still at a relatively high level. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.11% (-8.50). The position changed by +20,646 lots to 429,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 928,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.17 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.67%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. In Australia, shipments stopped falling and increased, mainly due to the rebound in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment volume from Brazil decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline from Vale. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. [5] - In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output according to the latest Steel Union data was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those being restarted, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability rate of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, and the number of profitable steel mills was still less than 40%. [5] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 8, coking coal led the decline, and the black sector continued to weaken. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell in the morning and then rebounded in an oscillating manner, closing down 0.38% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a premium of 174 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.55% at 5444 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day, with a premium of 156 yuan/ton over the futures price. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The trading focus is expected to return to the macro level before the occurrence of intensive macro - events. The subsequent deployment of next year's economic work in the Central Economic Work Conference and potential policy expectations will become the trading focus of the black sector in the future. [9] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.48% (-130). The weighted contract position changed by +18,060 lots to 459,193 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the quoted price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 625 yuan/ton for 553 and 225 yuan/ton for 421. [11] - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 54,545 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.74% (-965). The weighted contract position changed by -1298 lots to 258,624 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The basis of the main contract was -2245 yuan/ton. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a weak trend in the short term. In November, affected by the increase in costs during the dry season, the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased significantly, and the total output decreased. It is expected that the output in the southwest region will continue to decline in December, and the overall output may continue to decline compared to November. The demand weakened slightly, and the supply - demand pattern showed a double - weak situation with no prominent contradictions. The price is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - For polysilicon, the production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the expected capacity ramp - up and start - up of some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, while upstream silicon enterprises maintained price support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1002 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, an increase of 0.80% (+8). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China remained unchanged at 1110 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 25,830 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,031 lots. [17] - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1133 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, a decrease of 0.35% (-4). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1123 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 12,800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 27,379 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 38,430 lots. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - In November, multiple production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in daily melting capacity. From the perspective of the real estate sector, the industry still faces downward pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes. [18] - For soda ash, the overall industry operating rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still large. The demand was relatively flat, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The production enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders and had a strong intention to stabilize prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be officially put into production on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the soda ash market. The market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Report Date: December 08, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 Price: 778.5, down 7.0 from yesterday [2] - DCE05 Price: 760.5, down 8.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE09 Price: 737.0, down 7.0 from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 Spread: 18.0, up 1.5 from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 Spread: 23.5, down 1.5 from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 Spread: -41.5, unchanged from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - PB粉 (60.8%) Price: 780, down 8 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman Powder Price: 785, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - Macfarlane Powder Price: 777, down 8 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba Powder (60.5%) Price: 740, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - Roy Hill Powder Price: 773, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special Powder Price: 675, down 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) Price: 826, down 3 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) Price: 832, down 3 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG Price: 732, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás Powder Price: 870, down 8 from the day before yesterday [2] - Karara Concentrate Price: 877, down 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Ukrainian Concentrate Price: 875, down 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - IOC6 Price: 757, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - KUMBA Price: 864, down 7 from the day before yesterday [2] - SP10 Price: 724, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - Minmetals Standard Powder Price: 791, down 11 from the day before yesterday [2] - Optimal Delivery Product: Carajás Powder [2] Group 4: Spot Variety Spread and Import Profit - Carajás Powder - PB Powder Spread: 83, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman Powder - Jinbuba Powder Spread: 45, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás Powder - Jinbuba Powder Spread: 130, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB - Jinbuba Powder Spread: 47, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman Lump - Newman Powder Spread: 71, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Roy Hill Lump - Roy Hill Powder Spread: 13, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Macfarlane Powder - Super Special Powder Spread: 102, down 3 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB Powder - Super Special Powder Spread: 112, down 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB Lump - PB Powder Spread: 78, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás Powder Import Profit: -22, down 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman Powder Import Profit: 10, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB Powder Import Profit: -10, down 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba Powder Import Profit: 17, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special Powder Import Profit: -10, down 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB Lump Import Profit: 76, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF Import Profit: 6, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Macfarlane Powder Import Profit: 9, down 3 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG Import Profit: 1, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 5: Platts Index and Internal - External US Dollar Spread - Platts Iron Ore 62% Price: 107.1, down 0.9 from the day before yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 65% Price: 119.1, down 0.9 from the day before yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 58% Price: 95.4, down 0.7 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX Main - DCE01 Spread: 2.6, up 0.3 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX Main - DCE05 Spread: 4.7, up 0.2 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX Main - DCE09 Spread: 7.8, up 0.3 from the day before yesterday [2]

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.0 percentage points compared to October[2] - The decline in exports to the US was 28.6%, widening by 3.4 percentage points from October[4] - Exports of integrated circuits and automobiles surged by 34.2% and 53.0% respectively, contributing significantly to the overall export growth[3] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value, with a 0.9 percentage point acceleration from October[7] - Imports of crude oil decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in import prices by 11.1%[8] - The decline in imports from the US was 19.1%, but this was a smaller drop compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization[9] Market Dynamics - The overall export growth was supported by a shift towards diversified markets, with significant increases in exports to the EU and "Belt and Road" economies, which grew by 14.8% and 10.5% respectively[5] - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to the flexibility and strong pressure resistance of private enterprises, especially in the context of declining US market demand[6] - Future export growth may face challenges due to elevated year-on-year baselines and potential global trade slowdowns, with December exports possibly nearing zero growth[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. Steel inventory continues to decline, with stronger basis and rising profits. The driving factors for the absolute price are the possible macro - expectation trading in the Politburo meeting in December and the impact of coking coal on steel costs. The long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and the long - short spread arbitrage between rebar and hot - rolled coil can be held [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures will run weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to short iron ore at high prices unilaterally. The operation range is 750 - 820 yuan/ton, and the iron ore 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both coke and coking coal futures are viewed as weakly volatile. The coke trading range is 1480 - 1630 yuan/ton, and the coking coal range is 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. The strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 18, 17, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in North China remained unchanged. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12, 15, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The billet price remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained unchanged [1]. - **Profit**: The profits of East and South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of North China remained unchanged. The profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar output decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 tons to 8.8 tons, a decrease of 6.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.1% - 1.0% [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders increased, with an increase of 5.1% - 58.5% [4]. - **Inter - Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 25.0, a 4.2% increase; the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 to 16.5, a 5.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a 4.2% decrease. The global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a 1.4% increase. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a 4.3% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a 2.0% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 63.4 tons to 15300.81 tons, a 0.4% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - **Coke**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke decreased by 36 and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly. The 01 and 05 contracts of coking coal decreased by 67 and 49 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - **Coke**: The daily average output of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a 1.2% increase [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly, with a 0.34% decrease [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a 1.0% decrease [6]. Inventory - **Coke**: The inventory of full - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a 6.5% increase. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, a 18.7% increase, and the port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a 3.3% decrease [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the port inventory decreased by 1.3 tons to 296.5 tons, a 0.4% decrease [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of iron ore fluctuated around $106 per ton, with an average price of $106.3 per ton in December. Pig iron production continued to decline, and port iron ore inventories increased. With the successful shipment of the first batch of iron ore from Simandou and Vale's announcement of a 10 million - ton year - on - year increase in its iron ore production target for fiscal year 2026, the current outlook for iron ore is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 0.13%. Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 153.0081 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9069 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1845 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1213 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 million tons [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - According to China Iron and Steel Association data, in late November, key steel enterprises produced 18.18 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.818 million tons, a daily output decrease of 6.4% week - on - week. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% week - on - week; the daily output of pig iron was 2.09 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% week - on - week; and the daily output of steel products was 4.09 million tons, an increase of 3.2% week - on - week. The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.38 million tons or 4.4% week - on - week. The inventory has been decreasing continuously, and the decline has widened [15] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 per ton from the previous month. As of November 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; the iron ore shipment volume from Brazil was 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [21][22] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased, and other demand - related indicators such as the profitability rate of 247 steel mills and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are mentioned but no specific summarized data is provided in this output [23][29] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 153.0081 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9069 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1845 million tons, a decrease of 0.1213 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 3. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.9111 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8989 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3423 million tons, a decrease of 0.0983 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%; the steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%; the daily average pig iron production was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 million tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - The current outlook for iron ore is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][33] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Go short lightly on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [6][34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - Newman powder price is 784, down 6 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 839.0, a premium of 101.55, down 0.55 daily and up 0.90 weekly, and an import profit of - 19.00 [1] - PB powder price is 787, down 6 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 834.9, a premium of 107.35, down 0.50 daily and up 1.25 weekly, and an import profit of - 23.63 [1] - Mac powder price is 775, down 8 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 846.5, a premium of 100.40, down 0.65 daily and up 0.25 weekly, and an import profit of 4.78 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 740, down 6 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 832.3, a premium of 94.55, down 0.85 daily and up 0.20 weekly, and an import profit of 7.34 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 732, unchanged daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 861.4, a premium of 95.65, down 0.50 daily and down 0.15 weekly, and an import profit of - 4.32 [1] - Super special powder price is 675, down 7 daily and 8 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 889.3, a premium of 91.45, down 0.60 daily and down 0.65 weekly, and an import profit of - 20.01 [1] - Carajás powder price is 870, down 7 daily and 11 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 813.1, a premium of 118.65, down 0.55 daily and up 1.05 weekly, and an import profit of - 32.28 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder price is 820, down 1 daily and 8 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 835.2, a premium of 110.00, down 0.45 daily and up 1.20 weekly, and an import profit of - 13.89 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 powder price is 757, down 6 daily and 13 weekly [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG powder price is 762, down 6 daily and 13 weekly [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 875, down 5 daily and 5 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 970.1 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 729, down 6 daily and 6 weekly [1] - Karara concentrate price is 875, down 5 daily and 5 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 895.1 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 774, down 6 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 851.9, a premium of 100.65, down 0.50 daily and up 1.00 weekly, and an import profit of 8.95 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 846, down 6 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 837.4 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 610, down 7 daily and 8 weekly [1] - Atlas powder price is 727, unchanged daily and up 2 weekly [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1002, down 6 daily and 12 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 889.0 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 785.5, down 9.0 daily and 8.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 41.5, a basis of 27.6, up 1.3 daily and down 3.5 weekly [1] - i2605 contract price is 769.0, down 8.0 daily and up 1.0 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 16.5, a basis of 44.1, up 0.3 daily and down 13.0 weekly [1] - i2609 contract price is 744.0, down 9.0 daily and up 0.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 25.0, a basis of 69.1, up 1.3 daily and down 12.5 weekly [1] - FE01 contract price is 104.26, up 0.06 daily and 0.87 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 5.02, a basis of - 38.6, down 6.4 daily and 10.8 weekly [1] - FE05 contract price is 101.54, up 0.09 daily and 0.91 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.72, a basis of - 34.4, down 1.6 daily and 2.2 weekly [1] - FE09 contract price is 99.24, up 0.09 daily and 0.85 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.30, a basis of - 40.0, down 1.6 daily and 0.7 weekly [1]