Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In May, Hubei's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to April. Urban areas saw a rise of 0.3%, while rural areas experienced a decline of 0.2% [1] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the 0.6% rise in service prices, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment, which rose by 1.4%. The demand for tourism and entertainment during the "May Day" holiday contributed significantly to this increase [2] - Food prices remained stable year-on-year, with fresh fruit and aquatic products rising by 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively. However, the decline in fresh vegetable prices offset some of the upward pressure [2] Group 2: Industrial Producer Price Trends - In May, Hubei's industrial producer prices decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. The average decline for the first five months was 2.6% compared to the same period last year [3] - The prices of industrial materials fell by 3.0%, with raw material prices dropping by 5.2% and processing industry prices decreasing by 2.6%. Only general daily necessities saw a slight increase of 2.8% [3][4] - The decline in costs for raw materials, such as chemical raw materials (down 13.2%) and black metal materials (down 7.4%), has alleviated pressure on enterprise production costs [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The holiday economy has significantly boosted service consumption, indicating a need for further expansion of domestic demand and promotion of consumption upgrades [4] - The increase in service prices is expected to continue with the end of high school entrance exams and the upcoming summer travel demand, supported by policies aimed at stimulating consumption [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil)**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Future Trend**: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - **Supply Situation**: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - **Future Trend**: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - **Future Trend**: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

大宗商品展望 证券研究报告 2025.06.08 大宗商品 2025 下半年展望综述：一致 预期后的变局 郭朝辉 分析员 李林惠 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524060004 linhui.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部 冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外 金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市 场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于 2020 年全球疫情和 2022 年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能已经较为 充分。继特朗普政府在 4 月 23 日传递关税政策缓和信号1，再到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the basis, price ratio, and spread data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates in June 2025, which can help investors understand the market conditions and potential investment opportunities of these commodities [2][6][16][24][37][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented, and the basis is negative. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of INE crude oil and fuel oil, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are provided. The basis of INE crude oil is negative [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity spread data of various chemical commodities such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are given [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are provided [24] 3.4.2 London Market - LME price premium or discount, Shanghai - London price ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 6, 2025, are given [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity spread data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented [37][39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - month spread data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided [47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, pay attention to callback risks [16] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, maintain volatility [20] - US Stock Index Futures: Do not recommend chasing high, still in a volatile market [24] - Treasury Bond Futures: Adopt a bullish approach [26] - A - share Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [30] - Palm Oil: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity, price expected to oscillate [34] - Soybean Oil: Place in the short - allocation position [34] - Coking Coal/Coke: Treat as a short - term rebound, be cautious about chasing high, recommend waiting and seeing [36] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly [40] - Cotton: Hold a cautiously optimistic view with limited upside [44] - Soybean Meal: Futures short - term oscillate, greater probability of upward drive in the future; spot basis remains weak [48] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may maintain low - level oscillation; CS09 - C09 has the expectation of repair [49] - Corn: Before the contract change, hold 07 long positions with low cost; for new contracts after 09, adopt a weakly bearish approach [50] - Rebar/Hot - rolled Coil: Spot should be hedged on rebounds [56] - Copper: Short - term, recommend waiting and seeing, price likely to oscillate at a high level [61] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [62] - Polysilicon: Consider short - term short and long - term long, pay attention to position management when building positions on the left [65] - Industrial Silicon: Consider short - selling lightly after a rebound, expect low - level oscillation [67] - Lead: Short - term, wait and see; gradually pay attention to mid - line long opportunities [68] - Zinc: Short - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds; recommend long - term internal - external positive spread [71] - Nickel: Short - term, wait and see; consider selling put options on dips; mid - line, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds after Q3 [74] - Carbon Emissions: EU carbon price short - term oscillates [76] - Crude Oil: Market risk appetite supports oil price, but upside space may be limited [78] - Caustic Soda: The 09 contract's downside space is limited due to large discount [80] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate [82] - PVC: Expected to oscillate weakly [83] - Bottle Chip: Place long positions on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [86] - Soda Ash: Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium - term [87] - Float Glass: Spot price has downward adjustment space; short - term, the futures price is affected by market risk preference [89] 2. Core Views - The US May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, the labor market remained resilient, and the short - term US dollar index maintained volatility [2][19] - In the context of high necessity for stable growth and low constraints on stable exchange rates, there is a basis for further loosening of liquidity, and incremental monetary policies are expected to be introduced in Q3, so the bond market is starting to accumulate strength for a bull market [3][26] - A - share investors' bets on TACO trading were successful, but the mismatch between the slow change in domestic fundamentals and high market sentiment needs to be repaired [4][29] - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the macro environment, and their fundamentals did not change significantly in the short term [5][35] - The left - side long - position in industrial silicon faced risks, and short - selling lightly after a rebound could be considered [6][67] - The decline in US oil rig numbers supported the rebound of oil prices [7][77] 3. Summaries by Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - China's gold reserves increased slightly in May. The US May non - farm payroll report was better than expected, which supported the Fed to continue to wait and see, postponed the market's interest - rate cut expectation to September, and put pressure on gold. The wage growth in the non - farm data increased the inflation risk, and the employment market's weakening trend remained unchanged [13][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events occurred in the US, including conflicts and Trump's call for interest - rate cuts. The US May non - farm data was better than expected, and the labor market remained resilient, so the short - term US dollar index maintained volatility [17][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US consumer credit increased sharply in April, and the Fed official believed that it was difficult to cut interest rates before September. The US May non - farm data maintained a certain degree of resilience, but there were still concerns about stagflation in the US economy, and the US stock market was still in a volatile market [21][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Although there were uncertainties in short - term liquidity, in the long run, there was a basis for further loosening of liquidity, and the bond market was expected to strengthen [25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - High - level Sino - US economic and trade consultations were about to be held, and the Ministry of Commerce approved some rare - earth export license applications. A - share market sentiment was high, but the mismatch between fundamentals and sentiment needed to be repaired [27][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in early June, and the domestic soybean oil press volume was expected to rise. Palm oil prices were expected to oscillate, and soybean oil was recommended to be placed in the short - allocation position [31][34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in Lvliang was weak. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke did not change significantly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro environment [35][36] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The domestic sugar sales rate was high in May, but the import of raw sugar was expected to increase. The domestic sugar market was expected to be affected by external markets and imports, and Zhengzhou sugar was expected to oscillate weakly [39][40] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The demand for Pakistani yarn was limited, and Brazil's cotton export decline widened. The US cotton export sales were sluggish. The domestic cotton market was affected by multiple factors, and a cautiously optimistic view was held [41][44] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean sales rate was lower than previous years, and Argentina's soybean harvest was nearly completed. The domestic soybean press volume was expected to rise, and the soybean meal supply was increasing. The futures were expected to oscillate, and the spot basis was weak [45][48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profit of corn starch enterprises in some regions improved slightly. The starch market was expected to improve marginally, and the spread between CS07 - C07 and CS09 - C09 had different trends [49] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat market price was under pressure. The corn contract change was slow, and the price oscillated. The wheat price decline affected the corn market, and different strategies were recommended for different contracts [50] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled Coil) - The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased in late May. The steel price rebounded slightly, but the long - term trend was still bearish due to weak external demand [51][55] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Norwegian copper mine project obtained EU strategic status, and LME copper inventory fell to a two - year low. The short - term macro factors were favorable to copper prices, but the inventory trends at home and abroad were different, and the price was expected to oscillate at a high level [57][61] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A Bolivian lithium mining contract was suspended. The inventory pressure of lithium carbonate in June was relieved, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A HJT battery and component project was about to be put into production. The silicon material market was in a stalemate, and the production schedule in June was increased. Consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [63][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and start - up rates of industrial silicon in different regions changed. The demand was weak, and the price was at a low level. Short - selling lightly after a rebound could be considered [66][67] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was in a discount state. The supply had marginal reduction, and the demand was at a low level. Short - term wait - and - see, and pay attention to mid - line long opportunities [68] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in a discount state. The zinc supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. Short - sell on rallies and consider long - term internal - external positive spread [69][71] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - There were environmental issues in an Indonesian nickel mine. The nickel price oscillated at a low level, and the supply and demand on the mine and nickel - iron sides had different trends [72][73] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price increased slightly. The natural gas market affected the carbon market, and the EU's climate target proposal would affect the carbon market's development [75] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased significantly, which supported the rebound of oil prices [77] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of the caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was average. The 09 contract's downside space was limited [79][80] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The prices of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated. The futures price oscillated, and the market was expected to oscillate [81][82] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC increased, but the downstream procurement was inactive. The PVC market was expected to oscillate weakly [83] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable. The industry had high supply pressure, and the processing fee was at a low level. Consider building long positions on the processing fee on dips [84][86] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was average. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium - term [87] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The market was affected by different factors in different regions. The spot price had downward adjustment space [88][89]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复 是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧 烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于2020年全球疫情和2022年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能 已经较为充分。继特朗普政府在4月23日传递关税政策缓和信号[1]，再到5月12日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布[2]，关税不确定性似乎初步见顶，全 球经济衰退担忧缓和，商品价格和市场持仓的回补或均显示一致预期的修正进程已经开始。 一致预期后的变局可 能来自 于商品基本面的易变因素 展望下半年，贸易政策和地缘局势对商品市场的影响或将从预期到现实，而这本身也是不确定性从检验到修正的过程，不同商品基本面所面临的易变因素 可能带来预期差机会，成为一致预期后的市场变局 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The risk appetite in the capital market has slightly improved, but the industrial contradictions have little impact. The market may enter a stage of intensified divergence, and there may be a band convergence of the basis. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for futures - spot operations, and pay attention to the pressure range after basis repair [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of coke price cuts of 70 - 75 yuan is expected to be implemented soon. The market is mainly affected by macro uncertainties and industrial demand pressure. The short - term rebound is mainly due to short - covering, and the medium - term strategy is to short at high levels, with the short - term upper pressure around the coking coal warehouse receipt cost of 800 yuan [4]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price elasticity at low levels increases. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost decline [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The rebound is mainly due to short - covering, and the downward trend remains unchanged. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and the port inventory may shift from slight destocking to slight accumulation. The market needs to pay attention to the impact of steel mill profits on iron - water production and the stability of steel exports [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 5, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2951 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.34%); HC2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 closed at 665 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.15%); J2601 closed at 1358.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.44%); JM2601 closed at 773 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (1.18%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.14%); HC2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.19%); I2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.14%); J2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.56%); JM2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan (1.68%) [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts, such as RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, etc., also had corresponding changes. The spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts, like the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, etc., also showed different trends [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 5, the prices of various steel products in different regions, such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc., had different degrees of decline. The prices of hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the prices of coking coal and coke had mixed trends. For example, Shanghai rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port decreased, and the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port remained unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM main contracts also changed. For example, the HC main contract basis was 93 yuan/ton on June 5, down 30 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 131 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. Rebar production continued to fall, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped. Considering the one - day less workweek, the data was neutral. With the entry into the consumption off - season, the market has a weak expectation for future supply and demand. However, the phone call between the leaders of China and the US may ease trade - war sentiment and boost market risk appetite. Short - term rebar futures are expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Port spot prices were mixed. Australian shipments decreased from a high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded from a low level. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Iron - making output continued to decline. With 47 - port and steel - mill imported ore inventories decreasing, the price is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, down 1.43%. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Some coal mines had signs of shutdown and production restrictions due to safety incidents, and there was a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading link, but some coal mines still had high inventories. The coke market has a downward expectation, and steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, down 1.86%. Port spot prices fell. Steel mills initiated the third round of price cuts for coke. After two rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises faced production losses, and production enthusiasm weakened. Steel - mill demand for coke decreased as steel production declined. Short - term coke futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5482 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was stable. The manganese silicon price was mainly affected by the overall black - commodity sector sentiment but lacked sustainable support. Terminal demand was weak, and supply reduction support was limited. It is expected to follow the black - commodity sector fluctuations [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended weaker, with the main contract closing at 5196 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices were stable. Terminal demand was weak, market sentiment needed boosting, and cost support was weak. Although weekly production has dropped to a low level in recent years, it has not supported the price. It is expected to trade weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, and so did spot prices and trading volume. Production, inventory, and apparent demand all showed a downward trend. Market sentiment was affected by the consumption off - season and international trade relations [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures price dropped, and port spot prices were mixed. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory declined. The price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures price fell, and some spot prices decreased. Supply was affected by safety incidents, and demand was weak due to the coke market's downward expectation [1]. - **Coke**: Futures price declined, and port spot prices dropped. Steel mills' price cuts and weakening demand from the steel sector led to a production slowdown in coking enterprises [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market price was stable. It was mainly driven by sector sentiment, with weak terminal demand and limited supply - reduction support [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures price trended weaker, and spot prices were stable. Weak terminal demand, low market sentiment, and limited cost support led to a weak outlook [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For various black commodities, contract spreads such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month showed different changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties of black commodities changed, including price drops and stability [4]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The profit of different steel - making processes (such as rebar) and cross - commodity spreads (e.g., roll - rebar spread) showed various changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts for different black commodities [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spreads of different inter - period contracts for each black commodity [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spreads of cross - commodity contracts such as roll - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the historical profits of rebar in different production processes (main - contract surface profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) [45][46][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].