Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of recommended stocks by brokerages in April, with the best-performing stock rising by 83%, and anticipates a volatile market in May with a focus on consumer demand, dividends, and technology sectors [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections April Stock Performance - In April, the A-share market indices collectively declined, with the ChiNext index dropping over 7%. However, brokerage-recommended stocks showed strong excess returns, with the top stock, Wancheng Group, rising 83% [4]. - The second-best performer was Xianda Co., which surged 61%, while Kexing Pharmaceutical and Minshida both saw increases of nearly 55% [4]. - Approximately 37% of the 46 brokerage stocks recorded positive returns in April, with Northeast Securities leading with a monthly return of 13.28% [4][5]. May Stock Recommendations - Brokerages are increasingly recommending stocks in the consumer demand sector for May, with East Peng Beverage and Guizhou Moutai among the highlighted stocks [6][10]. - The skincare and medical beauty sectors are also gaining attention, with stocks like Proya and Aimeike receiving multiple recommendations due to market trends favoring domestic brands and new product launches [6]. Market Outlook for May - Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in May, with some expressing optimism about potential upward movement. The consensus is that adjustments in the market present good opportunities for investment [10][11]. - Key sectors to watch include consumer demand, technology, and dividend-paying stocks, with a focus on stable assets and self-sufficient supply chains [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei, the parent company of Liu Liu Guo Yuan, is attempting to enter the capital market by submitting an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, despite facing significant financial and operational challenges [2][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Liu Liu Guo Yuan sold 2 billion green plums in a year, generating annual revenue of 1.6 billion yuan [2]. - The company reported revenues of 1.174 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan, and 1.616 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 68.43 million yuan, 99.23 million yuan, and 148 million yuan during the same period [7][8]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that dried plum snacks, plum jelly, and western plum products contributed 974 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 410 million yuan, accounting for 60.3%, 13.8%, and 25.4% of total revenue, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Sales Channels - Liu Liu Guo Yuan ranks first in the Chinese plum product industry with a market share of 7% as of 2024, and it has maintained the top position in the sub-markets of green plum snacks and western plum snacks for four consecutive years [3]. - The company has shifted its sales strategy towards direct sales, with the proportion of revenue from direct sales increasing from 25.5% in 2022 to 59.2% in 2024, while revenue from distribution channels decreased correspondingly [3][4]. - The top three customers in 2024 contributed a combined revenue of 228 million yuan, 194 million yuan, and 44.3 million yuan, representing 28.2% of total revenue [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Liu Liu Mei faces significant challenges due to its heavy reliance on green plum products, which account for 60.3% of its revenue, exposing the company to market saturation risks [8]. - The average procurement price for green plums increased from 2,400 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton between 2020 and 2024, while imported western plum prices rose from 16,200 yuan/ton to 20,700 yuan/ton, leading to increased raw material costs [9]. - The company has seen a decline in the number of distributors for the first time, with a net loss of two distributors in 2024, indicating potential issues in its distribution strategy [4]. Group 4: Funding and Financial Health - Liu Liu Mei has completed four rounds of financing, with the latest round involving a buyout by Sequoia China at a significant discount, raising concerns about the company's valuation and market perception [11]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had cash reserves of only 78.05 million yuan against short-term borrowings of 312 million yuan, indicating a precarious financial situation [12]. - Government subsidies accounted for over 20% of net profit in 2024, highlighting a reliance on non-operational income that may undermine financial stability [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Mingming Busy Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the growing demand for affordable snacks in China's evolving retail landscape [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Busy aims for a retail sales target (GMV) of 55.5 billion yuan in 2024, with projected revenues of 4.286 billion yuan, 10.295 billion yuan, and 39.344 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The company maintains a low gross margin of around 7.5% to 7.6% from 2022 to 2024, with net profit margins of 1.7% to 2.1% during the same period [4][5]. - As of December 31, 2024, Mingming Busy plans to operate 14,394 stores, with approximately 58% located in county and town areas [4]. Group 2: Market Context - China's urbanization rate increased from 56.1% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, highlighting a shift towards county-level economic development [5][6]. - The retail environment is evolving, with a focus on "quality-price ratio" as consumers become more price-sensitive due to economic changes [6][9]. - The rise of single-person households and small families is driving demand for convenient, affordable snack options, with predictions of 150 to 200 million single-person households by 2030 [9][10]. Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - Mingming Busy employs a "thin profit, high sales" strategy, targeting the mass consumer market rather than high-end customers [11][15]. - The company utilizes a franchise model for rapid expansion, achieving a 246.1% growth in franchise stores in 2023, with continued triple-digit growth expected in 2024 [15][16]. - By eliminating middlemen and adopting direct procurement, Mingming Busy offers products at prices approximately 25% lower than similar products in traditional supermarkets [17]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a digital warehouse management system to optimize logistics and reduce costs, achieving an inventory turnover period of 11.6 days and a logistics cost rate of under 2% [17][20]. - Mingming Busy focuses on enhancing the in-store experience, creating a welcoming shopping environment with effective product displays and minimal staff requirements [20][21]. Group 5: Brand Development and Marketing - The company has invested in brand recognition through partnerships with celebrities and the creation of dual-brand IPs to attract younger consumers [21][22]. - Mingming Busy aims to create a social space through its stores, catering to the evolving needs of consumers seeking both affordability and experience [22][23]. Group 6: Social Impact - The rise of Mingming Busy has led to the creation of 7,241 franchise opportunities, contributing to job creation and revitalizing local economies [22][23]. - The company's growth reflects a sustainable business model that meets consumer needs while generating significant social value [23].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of snack retail chains in China, emphasizing the shift in consumer behavior towards value-for-money products and the emotional significance of snacks in modern life [1][6][17] Group 1: Market Trends - The snack industry in China has seen significant growth, with the market size increasing from over 400 billion yuan in 2010 to over 1 trillion yuan in 2021, indicating a strong economic impact [6] - The emergence of chains like "鸣鸣很忙" reflects a broader trend in the consumer market where quality and price are balanced, leading to a new consumer value system [7][12] - The number of "鸣鸣很忙" stores has surpassed 14,000 nationwide, generating over 55.5 billion yuan in revenue, showcasing rapid expansion and consumer acceptance [6][12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing quality and safety over traditional notions of luxury, leading to a preference for affordable yet reliable snack options [6][11] - The concept of "消费平权" (consumer equality) is gaining traction, as consumers in lower-tier cities now have access to the same quality and pricing as those in major urban centers [10][12] - The emotional value of snacks has become significant, with consumers viewing them as a form of self-reward and companionship in a fast-paced, often isolating society [1][17] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The success of "鸣鸣很忙" and similar chains is attributed to their efficient supply chains and direct sourcing from manufacturers, allowing them to offer competitive pricing without compromising quality [10][11] - Other brands like "蜜雪冰城" and "瑞幸咖啡" have also adopted similar strategies, focusing on high quality at low prices, which has proven effective in attracting consumers [7][10] - The snack retail sector is characterized by a mix of traditional and modern retail strategies, with new entrants challenging established brands by offering better value propositions [11][12] Group 4: Societal Implications - The rise of snack retail chains is seen as part of a larger societal shift towards valuing shared experiences and emotional connections over mere consumption [17] - The concept of "第四消费时代" (Fourth Consumption Era) is referenced, highlighting a transition from individualistic consumption to a focus on community and shared values [13][17] - The growth of snack retail chains is contributing to local economies by creating job opportunities and enabling entrepreneurship among local residents [12]

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 10.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 215 million yuan, up 3344.13% year-on-year, indicating strong performance and competitive strength in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.821 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 124.02% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 215 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3344.13% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 211 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10562.30% [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The snack retail business generated revenue of 10.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 128%, driven by a significant increase in the number of stores [2] - The net profit for the snack retail segment, excluding share-based payments, was 412 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit margin of 3.85%, which increased by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company expects to have approximately 14,200 stores by the end of Q1 2025, with a slight increase compared to the end of Q4 2024 [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company announced a stock incentive plan, granting shares equivalent to about 1.2% of the current share capital, with a target of achieving net profit growth of 40% to 55% from 2024 to 2028 [3] - The incentive plan reflects the company's commitment to deepening its presence in the snack retail sector and its confidence in achieving high completion rates for past targets [3] - The company maintains a leading advantage in supply chain efficiency and product iteration within the snack retail industry [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 820 million yuan, 1.14 billion yuan, and 1.41 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 23%, 38%, and 54% [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 182.22 yuan for 2025, based on a 40 times price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the high industry growth and the company's competitive strength [4] - The company’s strong performance validates the robust barriers within the snack retail sector and its competitive capabilities [4]

Core Insights - The snack industry has seen significant revenue growth, driven by new product launches and channel restructuring, including social e-commerce and discount stores [1][2] - Despite revenue growth, snack companies are facing challenges in maintaining profitability, with fluctuating sales expenses and gross margins [1][8] Revenue Growth Drivers - Major snack companies reported substantial revenue figures for 2024, with Three Squirrels leading at 10.622 billion, followed by other companies like Liangpinpuzi and Qiaqia Foods [2] - New product development has been highlighted as a key contributor to revenue, with Three Squirrels launching over 20 new products that achieved significant sales [3][4] Channel Expansion - The restructuring of sales channels has provided new opportunities for snack companies, with a focus on e-commerce and discount stores [5][6] - Three Squirrels reported an 81.73% increase in revenue from Douyin, indicating the effectiveness of digital marketing strategies [4] International Market Growth - Companies are increasingly targeting international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, to expand their growth potential [6][7] - Qiaqia Foods and other companies have reported significant growth in overseas sales, with Qiaqia's overseas revenue increasing by approximately 90% [6] Profitability Challenges - Many snack companies have experienced rising sales expenses, with increases ranging from 15.55% to 50.92%, primarily due to higher advertising costs [8][9] - Gross margins have shown volatility, with some companies reporting declines due to rising raw material costs and competitive pricing strategies [10] Dividend Distribution - Several companies have announced substantial cash dividends, reflecting confidence in their operational performance and future growth [11][12] - The total cash dividends and share buybacks for some companies represent a significant portion of their net profits, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [11]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Seeking China's Good Ingredients" initiated by the Central Radio and Television Station and local governments aims to promote rural revitalization and brand integration through innovative models combining media credibility, local resources, digital platforms, and brand industrialization [1][3]. Group 1: Event Launch and Collaboration - The event was launched at Qu Yuan Temple Square, featuring a performance that highlighted the cultural significance of the region [3]. - Good Products has been designated as a strategic partner for regional public brand ecological cooperation, collaborating with seven county governments to promote ingredient traceability and rural revitalization [3][5]. Group 2: Product Offerings and Cultural Significance - Good Products focuses on geographical indication raw materials from Hubei, introducing a series of culturally rich Dragon Boat Festival gift boxes featuring local specialties [5]. - The company has developed high-value products such as orange peel toast and lotus root snacks, enhancing the economic value of local agricultural products [5][8]. Group 3: Strategic Goals and Future Plans - Good Products emphasizes the importance of high-quality raw materials, committing to long-term direct sourcing and quality standard development in collaboration with local governments [8]. - The company plans to establish 10 core raw material bases across 50 production areas nationwide, aiming to create a complete value chain from soil to food [8].

近日，亿滋国际发布2024年度《享受好零食报告》（Snacking Made Right Report），披露公司在各个可 持续发展目标下取得的进展。此次发布的报告凸显了亿滋国际在推动零食行业更加可持续发展方面的长 期努力，并重申公司将"可持续发展"列为与增长、执行、文化并列的第四大战略支柱的承诺。在亿滋中 国，我们积极探索全价值链的减排，除了关注自身直接排放和外购能源产生的温室气体排放外，还关注 第三方物流等间接排放。 该报告还彰显了亿滋国际对透明度的持续承诺，展示了其在推动更可持续的发展和更用心的零食方面取 得的实质性进展。2024年亿滋国际取得的进展包含： ● 通过"可可之生"（Cocoa Life）这一公司标志性的可可可持续发展项目，赋能农业社区并修复耕 作生态，目前公司近91%的可可原料采购已被纳入该项目； ● 加速气候行动，较2018基准年，端到端温室气体排放降低约12%； ● 节能减排：依据内部数据统计，较2018基准年，2024年产量增长约29%，二氧化碳当量排放降低 48.8%； ● 在包装循环经济方面取得进展，约96%的产品包装实现了设计可回收； ● 提升用心设计分量产品的占比，超过84% ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is showing a stable recovery with major companies like Moutai setting a 9% revenue growth target, Wuliangye aligning with macro indicators, and Luzhou Laojiao emphasizing steady growth. The supply-side pressure in the industry has significantly eased, and channel feedback is expected to improve [1][3]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have reported double-digit growth, slightly exceeding market expectations, while Luzhou Laojiao's cash flow performance is better than its apparent data [3]. Beer Industry - The beer sector performed well in Q1 2025, with small breweries like Zhujiang and Yanjing showing outstanding results. Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer met expectations, and structural improvements are noted despite pressure on ton prices [4][5]. Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to trend towards health and functionality, with Dongpeng Beverage showing high growth and new products like health water from Lululemon gaining attention. Nongfu Spring is also highlighted as a company to watch [6]. Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is experiencing supply-side adjustments, with Yili's Q1 report showing positive revenue growth. The improvement in demand is expected to resonate with the raw milk cycle, while Mengniu is noted for its defensive attributes [7]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is exhibiting a new consumption growth trend, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou revising their forecasts upward. Yuyou has entered new channels, and Ganyuan's overseas market prospects for Q2 are promising [8]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is showing a trend of low performance followed by high recovery, particularly in sports apparel. Anta Sports is effectively managing multiple brands, while home textile companies like Luolai and Mercury Home Textile are seen as defensive investments [11][12]. Key Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended stocks include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Fenjiu and Wuliangye [10]. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and its strong dividend yield [5]. - **Dairy**: Yili and Mengniu are highlighted as key players [10]. - **Beverages**: Nongfu Spring and Lululemon are recommended [10]. - **Snacks**: Weilong, Yuyou, and Ganyuan are noted for their growth potential [10]. - **Textiles**: Anta Sports and home textile brands like Luolai are recommended for their defensive qualities [11][12]. Additional Insights - The pig farming sector is currently valued highly, with pig prices remaining elevated, but the breeding sector's outlook is cautious due to limited capacity recovery. Key companies to watch include Muyuan, Shennong Group, and Dekang [2][20]. - The poultry industry, particularly yellow feathered chickens, is facing challenges with prices down from last year, but companies like Lihua and Wens continue to expand [21]. - The retail sector is experiencing rapid growth, especially in the snack segment, with companies like Liangpinpuzi expected to open numerous new stores [33][34]. - The home appliance industry is focusing on tariff adjustments and new consumption trends, with companies like Vanward Electric and TCL Electronics showing strong performance [37][38].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...