Market Overview - The current market is in a phase of upward trend with periodic fluctuations, emphasizing a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on structural aspects rather than short-term index movements [1] - The market is expected to stabilize and rise before the Spring Festival, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors, with significant political and economic catalysts anticipated [1] Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors benefiting from the Spring Festival effect and macroeconomic catalysts in February, particularly in technology and value assets [1][3] - Maintain value assets as a core holding while increasing exposure to cyclical industry leaders showing improved sentiment [3] Sector Highlights - AI applications are gaining traction, with major tech companies competing for market share during the Spring Festival, including initiatives from Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba [2] - High-performing technology manufacturing sectors include AI hardware, energy storage, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Future industries of interest include defense, domestic computing power, and controlled nuclear fusion [2] Liquidity and Market Data - The dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies [5] - A notable outflow of approximately 370 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and semiconductors [5] - In the Hong Kong market, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with net inflows from southbound funds decreasing [6] ETF Holdings Summary - Significant reductions in holdings of major ETFs, with the CSI 300 seeing a decrease of 5,644 million yuan, leaving a remaining share of 42% [7] - Other ETFs also experienced notable reductions, indicating a shift in investment strategies among institutional investors [7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 量化周报 短期调整不足为惧 短期调整不足为惧。本周（1.26-1.30），大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收 跌 0.44%。在此背景下，煤炭迎来日线级别上涨。至此，25 个行业处于日 线级别上涨中。当下，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨大概率还能持续，理 由如下：1、上证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的概率低；2、目 前市场量能得以维持，走势比较健康；3、传媒、计算机、电力及公用事业 已于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的 概率低。本周，市场虽然出现震荡，但并未破坏原有的 30 分钟级别上涨， 也就是说当下的震荡调整连 30 分钟级别都不算，因此，我们认为市场的 短期调整不足为惧，市场仍然新高在望。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、 沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上 涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市只进行到上半场；此外， 已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 18 个行业周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结 构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局 ...

Stock Recommendations - The recommended stocks for February 2026 include: - Daotong Technology (688208.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 28.14% and a PE ratio of 34.98[2] - Kaiying Network (002517.SZ) with an expected EPS growth of 27.56% and a PE ratio of 24.92[2] - Huitong Co., Ltd. (688219.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 33.31% and a PE ratio of 12.59[2] - Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) with an expected EPS growth of 36.66% and a PE ratio of 36.89[2] - Aikedi (600933.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 18.08% and a PE ratio of 19.18[2] - Hongyuan Electronics (603267.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 50.66% and a PE ratio of 54.53[2] Market Performance - The Guoyuan monthly stock portfolio achieved a weighted return of 9.60% in January 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 3.76%[12] - The best-performing stocks in January included: - Kaige Precision Machinery with a return of 42.21%[12] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals with a return of 37.60%[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas policy risks across various industries and operational risks specific to individual companies[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% within the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is showing mixed performance as the Spring Festival approaches, with certain sub-sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, and media performing well, while others like light manufacturing and retail are declining [3][7]. - In the food and beverage sector, high-end liquor brands are expected to maintain market share due to strong demand, while the casual dining market is recovering as supply chain conditions stabilize [3]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to benefit from a release of pent-up demand, with leading companies adapting quickly to consumer changes [3]. - The jewelry sector, particularly gold and accessories, presents investment opportunities, focusing on brands with potential market share growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Food and Beverage - Alcohol - Major liquor companies are experiencing deeper profit adjustments, but leading brands are expected to gain market share [3]. - Focus on three main lines: high-end liquor, mid-range liquor with national expansion, and local market strongholds [3]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The at-home dining market is expanding, with companies like Guoquan showing strong growth potential [3]. - The restaurant supply chain is stabilizing, with sectors like condiments and frozen foods recovering from previous lows [3]. Social Services - The tourism sector is evolving, with leading companies responding effectively to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is growing steadily, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market changes [3]. Apparel and Jewelry - Investment opportunities are seen in the gold and jewelry sector, particularly for brands with room for market share growth [3]. Home Appliances - The air conditioning market is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on value creation rather than just scale [20]. - The electric compressor market is growing rapidly, driven by the expansion of the new energy vehicle sector [20]. Key Company Announcements - Companies like Huaxi Biological and Ruoyu Chen are projecting significant profit increases for 2025, driven by operational efficiency and market expansion [26][28]. - Anta Sports is acquiring a significant stake in PUMA, enhancing its global market position [29].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a transition from a strong momentum phase to a high-level consolidation phase, with the "steady and far-reaching" policy supporting this shift. The market's internal strength is gradually declining, indicating a need for time to digest valuations and performance [2][6]. Short-term Market Positioning - The short-term market has reached historical high levels, with the A-share floating profit also retreating from these highs. The average holding period remains at historically low levels, indicating excessive trading behavior. The technology sectors that initially led the market have seen a reduction in attractiveness, while cyclical sectors are also experiencing a decline in internal stability [3][5]. Long-term Market Positioning - The opening red market is an extension of the structural market of 2025, with expectations of a mid-term fundamental upcycle. However, as valuations reach historical highs, the market faces increased resistance, necessitating a transition from upward to consolidation phases. This requires time for performance to catch up with valuations [5][21]. Market Characteristics at High Valuation Levels - Four key characteristics of the market at high valuation levels include: 1. Increased difficulty in raising valuations. 2. Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, requiring new performance drivers. 3. High sensitivity to liquidity shocks, which could trigger adjustments from upper to lower consolidation ranges. 4. The need for "perfect performance validation" to avoid downward adjustments [21][22]. Sector Performance Insights - Various sectors, including communication, electronics, defense, and basic chemicals, have reached historical high valuation levels. The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical highs, indicating a need for performance to catch up with these valuations [5][23]. Policy Impact - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the market's transition to the next phase, characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation. This policy is likely to influence the performance of heavyweight stocks that have been under pressure [24][22].

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on market structure rather than short-term index fluctuations [1][11] - Recent market movements show a stronger rebound in value sectors compared to high-tech, with increased expectations for policies supporting the real estate sector [1][12] - Rising commodity prices and stabilization in certain product prices are aiding valuation recovery in undervalued sectors like real estate and baijiu [1][12] Market Outlook - The report anticipates stabilization and upward movement in Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) leading into the Lunar New Year, driven by domestic fundamentals and liquidity conditions [2][13] - A series of political and economic catalysts, including local and national meetings and the rollout of the 15th Five-Year Plan, are expected to enhance market sentiment [2][13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests positioning for the Lunar New Year "red packet" rally by focusing on industries benefiting from holiday effects and macroeconomic catalysts [2][14] - Key areas of focus include AI applications, high-quality tech manufacturing, and future industries such as defense and domestic chip production [2][14] Sector Analysis - Non-bank financials, particularly brokers and insurers, are expected to recover from previous outflows due to their strong fundamentals [3][19] - The holiday consumption chain, including sectors like gaming, food and beverage, and travel, is highlighted as a potential growth area [3][19] - Hong Kong dividend assets with earnings leverage, such as real estate and chemicals, are also noted for their potential upside following policy support [3][19] Liquidity Data - A-share ETF flows show a divergence, with broad-based ETFs experiencing significant outflows while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and chemicals [4][16] - In Hong Kong, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with notable inflows into energy and property sectors [5][17]

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

商品价格大涨推动下，开年以来，A股有色金属行业成为最闪耀的板块。数据显示，上周五（1月30 日）暴跌之前，有色金属板块个股1月平均涨幅39.9%，远超全A个股平均涨幅8.18%。有16只个股 的月涨幅超过50%，其中，湖南白银（002716.SZ）单月8次涨停，累计涨超200%，白银有色 （601212.SH）、盛达资源（000603.SZ）也在1月股价翻倍，兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、西部黄 金（601069.SH）等个股涨幅超80%。 2026.02. 01 本文字数：2711，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 1月，A股市场以有色金属为代表的分化表现收尾，申万有色金属行业以22.59%的月度涨幅高居榜 首，成为开年最亮眼的主线。然而，有色行情在1月30日急转直下，板块内个股大面积跌停。与此同 时，开年以来持续飙升的国际黄金、白银，在当日出现史诗级暴跌，跌幅均创近40年以来最大日跌 幅。 这场由资金疯狂追捧黄金、白银现货，传导至股票市场催生的行情，在创下近十年同期最高涨幅纪录 后迅速释放情绪，背后折射出市场对极端估值与盈利兑现之间的重新权衡。随着2月行情拉开帷幕， 资金从"疯抢黄金股"转 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the importance of "rebalancing" in the investment strategy for 2026, highlighting the dual focus on AI technology, overseas equipment, and global pricing resources as the main consensus among institutional investors [1][2] - The report indicates that the share of technology and overseas sectors in A-share profits (excluding finance) is approaching 40% by Q4 2025, suggesting a significant shift in the profit structure towards high-end technology and manufacturing, which is expected to reshape the A-share profit landscape and drive a new upward cycle in 2026-2027 [1][2] - The report outlines a transition from "new triumphing over old" in 2025 to "new and old dancing together" in 2026, where "new" refers to AI technology moving downstream and "old" refers to traditional industries stabilizing and growing through overseas business [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that global pricing resources, particularly gold, are experiencing a shift in asset allocation due to narratives of de-globalization and financialization, with a notable increase in trading sentiment driven by interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [2][3] - It is noted that the pricing of resource commodities is becoming increasingly differentiated, with financial attributes of resource pricing outperforming those based on commodity attributes [2][3] - The report stresses the need to be cautious of the assumption that the dollar will remain weak throughout 2026, as there may be a return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes, making supply-demand fundamentals more critical for resource price increases [3] Group 3 - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a significant increase in institutional holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reductions were noted in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and power equipment [9][10] - The report identifies a divergence in institutional investment in the AI industry chain, with a decrease in holdings in sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings visibility, such as optical modules, saw increases [10][11] - The report also notes that institutional investors are increasingly favoring resource commodities that benefit from price increases, particularly in the non-ferrous and chemical sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards these areas [10][11]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商证券策略研究 展望2月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。在业绩预告披露结束后，市 场阶段性会围绕商业航天、AI算力及应用等主题进行交易，同时由于涨价的扩散，市场也会继续在以 石油石化、建材、钢铁、化工、白酒等涨价领域进行阶段性交易。但是在缺少净增量的环境下，轮动可 能会加速，交易难度进一步提升。整体风格也有望相对均衡，风格轮动也可能会加快。 核心观点 ⚑大势研判和核心逻辑：展望2月，在前期监管释放降温信号和ETF大幅流出后，市场在未来一段时间 将会以震荡为主。今年2月有春节长假，春节长假之前，由于有长假期缺少明确的催化剂，预计市场活 跃度会进一步下降。春节之后，由于临近两会召开，政策催化将会加速出现，春节之后指数有望有更好 的表现。基本面层面，1-2月是数据真空期，从目前来看，产业端的边际变化带来的业绩改善趋势仍然 是市场关注的方向。顺周期涨价品种，半导体光模块为代表的AI链依然是景气趋势之所在。政策层 面，由于2026年是逢六逢一的五年规划第一年，也是 ...