Group 1 - The stock of 雷科防务 (Leike Defense) experienced a limit down on the trading day, with a turnover rate of 33.96% and a total transaction amount of 8.096 billion yuan, showing a fluctuation of 11.98% [2] - The stock was listed on the龙虎榜 (Dragon and Tiger List) due to a daily decline deviation of -8.58%, with net selling from the Shenzhen Stock Connect amounting to 183 million yuan [2] - The top five trading departments on the list had a combined transaction amount of 1.397 billion yuan, with buying amounting to 455 million yuan and selling at 939 million yuan, resulting in a net selling of 482 million yuan [2] Group 2 - In the past six months, the stock has appeared on the龙虎榜 20 times, with an average price increase of 2.50% the day after being listed and an average increase of 11.59% over the following five days [3] - The stock saw a net outflow of 1.910 billion yuan in main funds today, with a significant outflow of 1.670 billion yuan from large orders [3] - The latest margin trading data shows a total margin balance of 1.326 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.324 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 2.2666 million yuan, indicating a recent increase in financing balance by 367 million yuan, or 38.31% [3]

1月13日，沪指下跌0.64%，深成指下跌1.37%，创业板指下跌1.96%，沪深300指数下跌0.60%。可交易 A股中，上涨的有1622只，占比29.75%，下跌的3729只。 资金面上，今日主力资金全天净流出1627.43亿元，已连续6个交易日资金呈净流出状态。其中，创业板 主力资金净流出510.74亿元；科创板主力资金净流出189.50亿元；沪深300成份股主力资金净流出363.77 亿元。 分行业来看，申万所属的一级行业中，今日上涨的有6个，涨幅居前的行业为石油石化、医药生物，涨 幅为1.62%、1.21%。跌幅居前的行业为国防军工、电子，跌幅为5.50%、3.30%。 行业资金流向方面，今日有4个行业主力资金净流入，医药生物行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业 今日上涨1.21%，全天净流入资金43.48亿元，其次是石油石化行业，日涨幅为1.62%，净流入资金为 5.86亿元。 今日各行业资金流向 | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | 1 ...

主力资金净流出的行业有27个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金370.10亿元，其次 是计算机行业，净流出资金为231.07亿元，净流出资金较多的还有国防军工、通信、电力设备等行业。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出1627.43亿元，今日有4个行业主力资金净流入，医药生物行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.21%，全天净流入资金43.48亿元，其次是石油石化行业，日 涨幅为1.62%，净流入资金为5.86亿元。 电子行业今日下跌3.30%，全天主力资金净流出370.10亿元，该行业所属的个股共476只，今日上涨的有 34只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有435只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有92只，其 中，净流入资金超亿元的有9只，净流入资金居首的是兆易创新，今日净流入资金5.26亿元，紧随其后 的是京东方A、赛微电子，净流入资金分别为3.77亿元、2.85亿元。电子行业资金净流出个股中，资金 净流出超亿元的有93只，净流出资金居前的有领益智造、寒武纪-U、工业富联，净流出资金分别为 23.47亿元、22.80亿元、18.81亿元。（数据宝） 电子行业资金流入榜 | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64% on January 13, with six industries experiencing gains, led by the oil and petrochemical sector at 1.62% and the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector at 1.21% [1] - The defense and military industry had the largest decline, dropping by 5.50%, followed by the electronics sector, which fell by 3.30% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 162.74 billion yuan, with only four industries seeing net inflows [1] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the highest net inflow of 4.348 billion yuan, while the oil and petrochemical sector saw a net inflow of 586 million yuan [1] - The electronics industry experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 37.010 billion yuan, followed by the computer industry with a net outflow of 23.107 billion yuan [1] Defense and Military Industry Performance - The defense and military industry had 138 stocks, with only 11 stocks rising and one hitting the daily limit, while 126 stocks fell, including 20 that hit the daily limit [2] - The top stock for net capital inflow in this sector was Haige Communication, with a net inflow of 2.067 billion yuan, followed by Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group and Hongdu Aviation with net inflows of 191 million yuan and 93.939 million yuan, respectively [2] - A total of 44 stocks in the defense and military sector saw net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Aerospace Electronics, Aerospace Development, and Raytheon Defense, amounting to 4.706 billion yuan, 2.107 billion yuan, and 1.910 billion yuan, respectively [2] Top Gainers and Losers in Defense and Military Sector - The top gainers in the defense and military sector included Haige Communication (10.00% increase), Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (4.30% increase), and Hongdu Aviation (2.39% increase) [3] - The top losers included Aerospace Electronics (-10.01% decrease), Aerospace Development (-10.00% decrease), and Raytheon Defense (-9.99% decrease) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by leveraged funds and retail investors, with significant contributions from speculative and foreign capital, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the first week of January 2026, the A-share market saw a substantial increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 5.1% and the average daily trading volume surging over 700 billion yuan to 2.85 trillion yuan [1]. - The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.53% of the total A-share market capitalization, placing it in the 96th percentile historically since 2021 [3][10]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has significantly improved, with net inflows of 155.7 billion yuan, marking the second-highest level in the past year [3][15]. - The activity of speculative funds has also increased, with an average daily trading volume of 31.4 billion yuan on the Long Hu List, reaching a six-month peak [3][17]. Group 3: Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has shown a renewed interest, with the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increasing by 98.6 billion yuan to 327.2 billion yuan, representing an increase of 0.73 percentage points in trading volume share [3][19]. - Passive foreign capital has turned into a slight net inflow of 6.7 million dollars, indicating a stronger attraction towards technology sectors [3][23]. Group 4: Macro Liquidity - The central bank's significant net withdrawal of 166 billion yuan has not tightened market liquidity, as interbank market interest rates have declined, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][8]. - The RMB exchange rate appreciated to 6.98 against the US dollar, with the 2-year and 10-year China-US interest rate differentials narrowing [9]. Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The ETF market has shown structural divergence, with a slight net outflow of 390 million yuan from stock ETFs, while industry-themed ETFs attracted a net inflow of 13.6 billion yuan [25][26]. - Broad-based ETFs faced significant net outflows, particularly from the CSI A500-related ETFs, which saw a redemption of 13.1 billion yuan [25].

Group 1 - The core market performance shows that 29 out of 31 primary industries received net financing inflows, with the computer industry leading in net inflow amounts [1] - Over two thousand stocks experienced net financing inflows, with more than a hundred stocks having net inflows exceeding 100 million, and 22 stocks surpassing 300 million in net inflows [1] Group 2 - The determination of market highs and lows is primarily influenced by the trading intentions of institutional investors, which can be assessed through actual trading behaviors [6] - Quantitative data can reveal the true participation levels of institutional investors, helping to avoid misjudgments based solely on price movements [6][15] - The analysis of trading behavior through quantitative data can clarify that apparent price rebounds may not be supported by institutional participation, indicating that perceived lows may not be genuine [12][15] Group 3 - The use of quantitative big data allows for a more objective understanding of market conditions, helping to establish a rational perspective and avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading [15]

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 13 日 商业航天催化持续，继续加大军工 行业关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2026 年第 2 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 13.63%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 15.29%，同期上证综指 上涨 3.82%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，创业板指上涨 3.89%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创 业板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 13.63%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.04% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 995.73 million shares and a transaction value of 1,824.82 billion yuan, representing a 1.67% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biological sector led the gains with a rise of 2.60%, followed by media at 2.07%, and oil and petrochemicals at 1.50% [1] - The defense and military industry experienced the largest decline at 5.76%, followed by electronics at 1.95%, and electric power equipment at 1.37% [2] Top Performing Stocks - In the pharmaceutical sector, Xinjianjiang surged by 30.00%, while in media, Liujin Technology rose by 25.66% [1] - The top performer in the oil and petrochemical sector was Bohai Chemical, which increased by 10.14% [1] - In the non-banking financial sector, Hualin Securities saw a rise of 10.02% [1] Declining Stocks - The largest decline in the defense and military sector was seen in Guolian Aviation, which fell by 14.12% [2] - In the electronics sector, Jiuzhiyang dropped by 13.00% [2] - The electric power equipment sector's top loser was Tongguang Cable, which decreased by 11.66% [2]

Stock Market Overview - In December, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was implemented as expected, leading to fluctuations in future rate cut expectations, while the Nasdaq index experienced volatility [1] - The A-share market showed overall fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 11 consecutive gains by the end of the month, driven by a positive tone from the Central Economic Work Conference and a declining US dollar index [1] - The Wind All A index recorded a +3.3% increase for the month, with 60% of the Shenwan first-level industries rising, particularly strong performances in defense and military (+17.22%) and non-ferrous metals (+13.68%) [1] Bond Market Overview - The bond market continued to experience wide fluctuations in December, with increased yield volatility and a steeper curve [2] - Despite relatively ample liquidity and the central bank's resumption of bond purchases providing some support, concerns over long-term bond supply and other factors kept the market in a weak oscillation pattern [2] - The 10-year government bond yield ended the month at 1.85%, reflecting an N-shaped trend throughout December [2] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed a bullish atmosphere in December, with precious metals and non-ferrous sectors being the strongest performers [3] - Gold prices fluctuated, with London gold closing at $4318.25 per ounce, up 2.36% from the previous month, while copper prices also saw significant increases [3] - The oil market experienced a downward trend, with Brent crude oil closing at $60.91 per barrel, down 2.26% for the month [3] Macroeconomic Performance - In November, China's exports demonstrated strong resilience, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in machinery and high-tech product exports [5] - However, domestic consumption remained weak, with retail sales growth slowing to 0.3% year-on-year, indicating structural constraints on internal demand [5] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with real estate investment adjustments dragging down overall figures, highlighting the challenges in achieving self-sustaining growth [5] Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on addressing the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" [9] - The strategic shift will prioritize investment in human capital and social welfare, aiming to enhance income levels and consumer demand [9] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more active stance, with a nominal deficit rate targeted around 4.0%, while monetary policy will shift focus from total volume to price stability [10][11] Asset Allocation Analysis - In December, net buying in the stock market rebounded to over 2.5 trillion yuan, with significant inflows into equity ETFs [14] - The manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations by companies [15] - Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to experience structural trends, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate sustainable performance and profitability [16]