Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly rising over 1% to reach a ten-year high before closing down 0.31% at 4126.09 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56% to close at 14248.60 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.82% to finish at 3349.14 points [1] Trading Volume - The combined trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached a record high of 39,872 billion, an increase of 2,881 billion from the previous day [3] - This marked the third consecutive day of record trading volumes, with the previous day's volume at 36,991 billion and the day before that at 36,400 billion, surpassing the previous record of 34,549.33 billion set on October 8, 2024 [3] Sector Performance - Notable sectors with significant gains included Huawei Ascend, cross-border payments, AI data, computing, publishing, and precious metals [3] - Conversely, sectors such as aerospace, telecommunications, lithium mining, energy metals, banking, and airports experienced declines [3] Stock Highlights - The market saw rapid rotation of hotspots, with over 2,700 stocks rising. The AI application concept surged, with more than twenty constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Liou Co. with six consecutive limit-ups in nine days [3] - Other notable stocks included Xinhua Net, People’s Daily, and Sanjiang Shopping, which achieved three consecutive limit-ups, while Yiwang Yichuang had two limit-ups in three days [3] - The computing hardware concept also saw gains, with Guangxun Technology hitting a limit-up and a new high [3] - The semiconductor sector rose, with Yaxiang Integration achieving a limit-up and a historical high [3] - The commercial aerospace concept was active, with Haige Communication achieving three consecutive limit-ups and several other stocks like Datang Telecom and Jiayuan Technology also hitting limit-ups [3] Declines - The energy metals, insurance, and banking sectors faced the largest declines, with the lithium mining concept notably dropping, leading to Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit-down [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve has triggered a crisis of confidence in U.S. assets, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments, particularly in precious metals and decentralized cryptocurrency platforms like XBIT [1][3]. Precious Metals Market - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with silver reaching a peak of $85.74 per ounce, up over 7%, and gold hitting $4620.34 per ounce, a 2.4% increase, both breaking historical records set in December 2025 [3]. - The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 0.5% to 98.81, while major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones down 159 points (0.32%) and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.14% and 0.1% respectively [3]. Federal Reserve Independence - The core issue revolves around the independence of the Federal Reserve, with recent interventions by the Trump administration raising concerns among investors, leading to a "sell-off" of U.S. assets [5]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed a criminal investigation against him, which has been perceived as an attack on the Fed's independence, prompting market panic [3][5]. Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market has experienced volatility, with Bitcoin dropping from $89,000 to around $87,000, resulting in significant liquidations of positions [6]. - XBIT, a decentralized exchange, has emerged as a stable option for investors seeking security and compliance amid market fluctuations, highlighting its role as a "stable anchor" in the crypto space [6]. XBIT's Strategic Positioning - XBIT prioritizes compliance and user asset security, adapting to global regulatory changes and ensuring transparency in operations, which has helped it avoid penalties faced by other exchanges [8]. - The platform is enhancing its decentralized trading mechanisms and exploring the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), aligning with industry trends such as the SEC's approval for blockchain-based tokenized stocks [8]. - XBIT aims to strengthen its technology and compliance framework while expanding its product offerings to provide secure and efficient digital asset trading solutions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced mixed performance on January 14, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index saw gains of 0.56%, 0.82%, and 1.63% respectively [3][4]. Market Performance - The A-share market's trading volume approached 4 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high, with over 2,700 stocks rising [7]. - Key sectors that showed activity included AI applications, fintech, computing hardware, smart wearables, and medical services, while lithium mining, commercial aerospace, insurance, banking, and real estate sectors faced declines [4][5]. Stock Highlights - Notable stocks in the computing sector included Guangxun Technology, which hit the daily limit, and several others like Hongjing Technology and Dawi Technology, which also saw significant gains [5]. - AI application stocks surged, with Liou Co. achieving six consecutive daily limits and over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit [6]. Fund Flow - Main funds saw net inflows into sectors such as internet services, precious metals, and paper printing, while experiencing net outflows from sectors like power grid equipment, cultural media, and banking [9]. - Specific stocks that attracted significant net inflows included Shanzi Gaoke, Huasheng Tiancai, and Hudian Co., with inflows of 2.089 billion yuan, 1.520 billion yuan, and 1.309 billion yuan respectively [10]. - Conversely, stocks like Tebian Electric, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Goldwind Technology faced substantial net outflows of 4.919 billion yuan, 2.645 billion yuan, and 2.176 billion yuan respectively [11]. Institutional Perspectives - Dongfang Securities noted that liquidity remains loose, suggesting a potential valuation rebound for AI applications [13]. - Dexun Securities projected that 2026 will be a significant year for AI application implementation, continuing to attract capital inflows [14]. - Guotai Haitong indicated that while short-term adjustments may occur, each presents opportunities for entry or increased positions [15].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance on January 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.56% and 0.82% respectively [1][2] - The total trading volume across the three markets reached approximately 3.99 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record for A-shares [4] Financing Margin Adjustment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an increase in the financing margin ratio for A-shares from 80% to 100%, marking the first adjustment in ten years [4] Sector Performance - The lithium mining and insurance sectors saw significant declines, with Zhongmin Resources down 7% and Tianqi Lithium down 4% [6] - The GEO concept stocks gained attention, with two stocks doubling in value this year: Yidian Tianxia up 100% and Zhongwen Online up 54% [11] Investment Directions - Analysts suggest focusing on three main investment directions for 2026: 1. Technology growth, including AI and semiconductor sectors 2. Advanced manufacturing, covering energy storage and new energy vehicles 3. Cyclical and consumer sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [16][17] Notable Stocks - Several stocks in the aerospace sector faced significant declines, with China Satellite Communications down 10% and Aerospace Longming down nearly 10% [10] - The CPO concept stocks showed recovery, with Guangxun Technology hitting the daily limit up [10] Future Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is expected to shift from short-term emotional responses to value recovery, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector [17]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw over 2,700 stocks rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, the ChiNext Index up 0.82%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 1.63% [1][6] Sector Performance - Active sectors included AI applications, financial technology, computing hardware, smart wearables, and medical services, while lithium mining, commercial aerospace themes, insurance, banking, and real estate sectors experienced declines [2][4] Notable Stocks - Significant gainers included: - Keda Guokuan (+20.01% to 52.72) - Hongjing Technology (+20.00% to 87.06) - Jiayuan Technology (+20.00% to 84.48) - Tianyuan Dike (+18.61% to 16.70) - Huachang Technology (+17.02% to 32.52) [3][5] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in internet services, precious metals, and paper printing sectors, while net outflows were noted in power grid equipment, cultural media, and banking sectors [8] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities indicated that liquidity remains loose, suggesting a potential valuation rebound for AI applications [9] - Dexun Securities projected that 2026 will be a significant year for AI application implementation, continuing to attract capital inflows [10]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong upward momentum, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a historical high, with an intraday increase of 2.71% and a current rise of 0.81% [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, as the MACD indicator has achieved a golden cross, suggesting that the market's buying power remains dominant and the upward momentum of stock prices has not shown significant signs of weakening [1] - There has been significant capital inflow into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, with a net subscription of 57.6 million units reported, accumulating a total of 387 million yuan over the past ten days [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that copper prices have considerable room for upward movement, as historical analysis shows that adjusted for inflation, current copper prices have not yet reached the heights of previous super cycles [2] - The ongoing global monetary order reshaping is weakening the dollar's role as a price anchor for major assets, with the current copper-to-gold ratio still at a historical low [2] - The investment community is optimistic about the non-ferrous metal sector, anticipating a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors, with projections indicating a potential bull market in 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the entire sector's beta performance [4] - Key stocks in the sector have shown significant gains, with Hunan Silver reaching the daily limit, and other companies like Steel Research High-Tech and Silver Non-Ferrous also experiencing substantial increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong upward momentum, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a new historical high and attracting significant capital inflow [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 2.71%, currently up 0.81%, with a real-time trading volume of 1.06 billion yuan [1][9]. - The ETF has recorded a net subscription of 57.6 million units, accumulating a total of 387 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][9]. - Key stocks in the sector include Hunan Silver, which rose by 9.98%, and Jiangxi Copper, which increased by 6.00% [2][4][13]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend, with the fast line (DIF) consistently above the slow line (DEA) [1][9]. - The short-term market is dominated by bullish sentiment, with no significant signs of a decrease in upward momentum [1][9]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities believes that copper prices have significant upward potential, as historical analysis shows that adjusted for inflation, current copper prices have not reached the heights of previous super cycles [2][10]. - The current global monetary order is being reshaped, weakening the dollar's role as a price anchor, with the copper-to-gold ratio still at historical lows [2][10]. - The industry is expected to enter a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026, with institutions generally optimistic about the non-ferrous metal sector's future [5][11]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The current super copper cycle is influenced by the "AI leap" and "century change," which are expected to have lasting strategic significance [11]. - The demand for strategic metals is anticipated to rise due to new technological revolutions, with elements essential for new productivity becoming increasingly important [11]. - The non-ferrous metal sector's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macro expectations [11].

文 | 史玥明 来源 | 光大期货微资讯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 共性驱动：三大核心因素撑起贵金属牛市根基 01 2026年开年的贵金属市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过。1月14日，现货白银首次突破90美元，再创历史新高，新年首月累计涨幅 已远超市场预期。一边是投资者涌入贵金属ETF、相关LOF基金份额屡创新高的狂热，一边是芝商所一个月内三次上调保证金、彭博 指数调整引发被动减仓的降温信号。 图源：wind 无论是黄金的稳步攀升，还是白银的暴力突破，本质上都是多重宏观变量共振的结果。梳理当前市场环境，地缘政治风险升温、美联储 降息预期强化、全球战略储备需求激增，这三大共性因素构成了贵金属上涨的核心支撑，且每一个因素都有明确的数据与事件佐证。 1. 地缘政治"风暴眼"持续扩容，避险需求空前高涨 贵金属的避险属性，在全球地缘冲突加剧的背景下被无限放大。进入2026年，全球地缘政治的"火药味"明显变浓，从美洲到中东再到北 极，多重冲突点叠加，直接推升了市场对贵金属的配置需求。 最受关注的莫过于特朗普政府的对外政策动向。据央视新闻报道，美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案，包括向中东派 遣航 ...

Core Insights - The spot silver price has reached a new historical high, surpassing $90 per ounce, indicating strong market demand and bullish sentiment [1] - The market capitalization of silver has exceeded $5 trillion, surpassing that of major companies like NVIDIA, which is valued at $4.52 trillion [4][5] Price Movements - Spot silver prices in London reached a peak of $90.004, with a daily increase of 3.41% [2] - COMEX silver also saw significant gains, with prices rising over 4% during trading [3] - The Shanghai silver futures contracts experienced a rise of over 7%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% [3][4] Market Dynamics - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as inflation data supporting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Analysts from Citigroup have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively, over the next three months [7] Supply and Demand Factors - There is a noted short-term tightness in the silver spot market, driven by factors such as U.S. trade policies designating silver as a critical mineral and increased orders from India [7] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that while the most acute phase of supply tightness may have passed, ongoing developments in U.S. trade policy will be crucial for future market conditions [7]