Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Oscillating operation [3] - Core view: The steel price of finished products fluctuates with raw materials and is oscillating strongly. The finished products rebounded last week, with the weekly fundamentals in line with expectations. Both production and apparent demand increased, the inventory accumulation speed decreased, and the inventory peak is approaching. Due to the recent rise in crude oil prices, inflation has led to an overall increase in market prices, and the rise in upstream raw materials has also driven up the center of steel prices. Attention should still be paid to downstream demand [1][2] Group 2 - According to the data of China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of March 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.11 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.011 million tons, a 0.8% decrease in daily output compared with the previous period. The steel inventory was 17.81 million tons, an increase of 470,000 tons or 2.7% compared with the previous ten - day period [2] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 82.92%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.65 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 12.12 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 50.44%, an increase of 29.73 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.05 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The average operating rate was 57.34%, an increase of 32.63 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 12.59 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2] - At the end of last week, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2,970 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector continued to oscillate upward, with raw materials outperforming finished products. The futures market sentiment was strong due to the Middle East conflict, and the energy and chemical sector remained strong. [3] - Steel demand continued to recover, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. On the raw material side, coking coal production increased rapidly, and there was post - holiday restocking in the coking coal downstream. Iron ore prices strengthened significantly last week due to more restricted circulation varieties. [3] - Steel, coking coal, and iron ore are all expected to oscillate strongly. [4] Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector oscillated upward, and raw materials were stronger than finished products. [5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The energy and chemical sector remained strong. [7] 03 Spot Prices - Coking coal prices fell slightly, while iron ore prices rose significantly. [9] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profits were poor, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. [11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand continued to pick up, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline this week. [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Affected by production restrictions in North China, hot metal production dropped significantly last week. Steel mill iron ore inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. After the two - sessions ended, steel mills will resume production this week, and hot metal production is expected to rebound rapidly. Steel mills may have phased restocking, but the pressure on finished products is expected to increase. [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased, and inventories gradually accumulated. With post - holiday restocking in the middle and lower reaches, upstream coal mines had a slight inventory reduction. [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production hovered at a low level, and the total inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking plant and port coke inventories decreased, while steel mill coke inventories increased. [4][27] 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mill's on - paper profits declined, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio decreased. [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Iran will continue strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US may end military operations against Iran, but no internal instructions to stop have been received. [35] - The IEA agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. [35] - China's foreign trade had a good start in 2026, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first two months reaching 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. However, China's steel exports from January to February decreased by 8.1% year - on - year. [35]

Group 1: Strategic Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," achieving significant economic and social development milestones[9] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve substantial progress in high-quality development, with a focus on increasing the resident consumption rate and total factor productivity[30] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, with a target to significantly enhance the level of technological independence[30] Group 2: Key Development Tasks - The plan outlines twelve core tasks, including the construction of a modern industrial system and the promotion of digital and intelligent development[4] - It highlights the need for a strong domestic market, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and improving investment in both human and physical resources[4] - The plan aims to accelerate the green transition, with specific mechanisms and tasks to promote energy efficiency and carbon reduction[4] Group 3: Economic and Social Indicators - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets ambitious targets, including a GDP growth rate that remains reasonable and a significant increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption[39] - It aims for a substantial increase in the number of high-value invention patents per capita, targeting 22 patents per 10,000 people[41] - The plan includes a goal for the urbanization rate of the permanent population to reach 71%[41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from March 9 - 13, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For example, Beijing rebar price was 3150 on March 9 and remained the same on March 10 and 11, then increased to 3160 on March 12. The price changes of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils are also detailed, with changes such as 20 for Tianjin hot - rolled coil, 10 for Shanghai hot - rolled coil, etc. [1] Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

钢材周报 2026 年 3 月 16 日 关注需求兑现 期价震荡反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：2026年两会明确GDP增5%左右、新增就业1200 万以上、CPI涨3%左右等目标，聚焦科技创新、改革开 放与绿色转型。宏观政策稳中求进：财政加力提效，优 支支持科技民生；货币灵活适度，保流动精准润实体； 跨周期与逆周期调节结合，统筹稳增长、防风险、惠民 生，强支撑经济回升。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量195万吨，环比增加22万吨，表 需177万吨，增加79万吨，厂库240万吨，增加2万吨， 社库655万吨，增加17万吨，总库存89 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - After the important meeting, steel production is expected to increase, with the output of blast furnace rebar and hot-rolled coils likely to rebound quickly. Pig iron production will rise, reaching over 2.3 million tons by the end of March to early April. The macro environment is relatively loose, and the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coils at the industrial level depend more on the quality of demand and the game between expectations and reality. It is expected that there is still room for an upward trend. For iron ore, short-term rumors may disrupt the market, but it should be viewed rationally. As pig iron production rebounds, the incremental demand for iron ore is relatively certain. Although port inventories have increased, steel mill inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of active restocking by steel mills later, with the inventory consumption ratio tending to decline. It is expected that the trend will still be bullish, but technically, it may fill the gap in the short term [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Friday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore opened higher with a gap. RB2605 closed at 3142, up 0.58%. It closed down at night [1] Important Information - The draft report on the national economic and social development plan for 2026 was released, which mentioned continuing to promote the quality improvement, cost reduction, and carbon reduction actions in key industries in 2026, including strengthening capacity governance in key industries, promoting supply-demand balance and stability in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, and chemicals, and orderly reducing the capacity of industries such as steel and refining [1] - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of March 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.11 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.011 million tons, a 0.8% decrease from the previous ten days. The steel inventory was 17.81 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous ten days [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 179.4732 million tons, a 524,900-ton increase from the previous week; the total inventory at 45 ports was 171.8752 million tons, a 696,600-ton increase from the previous week [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills nationwide was 89.291 million tons, a 824,700-ton decrease from the previous week [1] Market Logic - Last week, the production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar all increased. The production increased significantly, with a weekly increase of 219,900 tons. The inventory continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down significantly. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 785,800 tons, indicating that the demand for rebar has started. Overall, the current inventory pressure of rebar is not large [1] - For hot-rolled coils, the production last week was 2.9526 million tons, a 58,500-ton decrease from the previous week, and it has been declining for two consecutive weeks. The total inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a 1,000-ton decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory was 892,800 tons, a 8,000-ton decrease from the previous week, and the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons, a 7,000-ton increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly, with the total inventory remaining basically unchanged. The apparent demand was 2.9536 million tons, a 137,900-ton increase from the previous week, almost the same as the production, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for hot-rolled coils [1] - The daily pig iron production last week was 2.212 million tons, a 63,900-ton decrease from the previous week. The production limit during the Two Sessions was an important factor, and it will increase later [1] Trading Strategies - After the important meeting, steel production is expected to increase, and pig iron production will rise to over 2.3 million tons by the end of March to early April. The macro environment is relatively loose, and the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coils at the industrial level depend more on the quality of demand and the game between expectations and reality. It is expected that there is still room for an upward trend. For iron ore, short-term rumors may disrupt the market, but it should be viewed rationally. As pig iron production rebounds, the incremental demand for iron ore is relatively certain. Although port inventories have increased, steel mill inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of active restocking by steel mills later, with the inventory consumption ratio tending to decline. It is expected that the trend will still be bullish, but technically, it may fill the gap in the short term [1][2] - The support level for the rebar main contract is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200. The support level for the hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [2] - For single-sided trading, continue to hold long positions in steel and iron ore, and continuously raise the stop-loss line. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread, with a suggested stop-loss level of 120 for the spread and a take-profit level of 200. The rebar - iron ore ratio has dropped below 4 and may continue to decline. Wait for trading opportunities to go long on the rebar - iron ore ratio [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. Each commodity has its specific price trend and influencing factors, such as cost changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - industry news [2][4][7][11][14][15][18][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Trend**: Near - term strong, long - term weak, with a positive spread arbitrage opportunity. The I2605 contract rose 2.01% to 811.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 9,239 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly rose [4] - **Influencing Factors**: Near - term, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict increased energy costs, and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore purchases drove up prices. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy - based financial instruments. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.39 tons [4][5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Trend**: The cost center has risen, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The RB2605 contract of rebar rose 0.58%, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil rose 0.52%. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [7] - **Influencing Factors**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on March 12, rebar production increased by 21.99 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.85 tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 18.49 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.1 tons. Apparent demand for both increased. In February 2026, China's steel imports decreased, exports increased, and relevant macro - policies were introduced [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Trend**: The market's long and short sentiments continue to compete, and prices are oscillating. Futures prices of ferrosilicon decreased, while those of silicomanganese increased [11] - **Influencing Factors**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported by Ferrous Alloys Online. Some silicon - iron plants resumed production, and steel mills' procurement prices and quantities for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied [11][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Trend**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2605 contract of coking coal rose 2.2%, and the J2605 contract of coke rose 0.6%. Some spot prices of coking coal increased [15] - **Influencing Factors**: On March 13, the CCI metallurgical coal index of some coking coals changed. The coking coal online auction had no unsold lots, with an average premium of 47.85 yuan/ton, and most prices rose [15] Thermal Coal - **Price Trend**: Supply and demand are loosening, and coal prices are回调. The prices of coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different trends, and the long - term agreement prices in March changed slightly [18] - **Influencing Factors**: The port thermal coal market continued to be weak on March 13. Port inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak due to the seasonal off - peak. China's coal imports from January to February 2026 increased year - on - year, with Mongolian coal imports being the main support [19] Logs - **Price Trend**: Supply has recovered, inventory has accumulated, and log prices have回调. Futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and trading volumes mostly decreased [20] - **Influencing Factors**: On the demand side, port departure was slow; on the supply side, port arrival recovered rapidly, leading to inventory accumulation. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies [22]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260313 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美联储年内降息预期消退，国内市场股弱债强 海外方面，伊朗新领袖强硬表态继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡、保留报复并威胁攻击中东美军 基地，显示其正将地缘冲突升级为持续性的能源与航运施压；美方则一边为护航做准备，一 边拟通过《琼斯法》短期豁降低能源运输成本，短期核心矛盾仍在海峡通行能否恢复与油运 风险能否被有效控制。伊朗此前袭击两艘油轮后，油价重返 100 美元上方，市场对美联储年 内降息的预期消退，美股低开低走，金银铜延续跌势，美元指数升至 99.7，创逾三个月新高， 10 年期美债收益率站上 4.25%。后续继续关注美伊局势进展及今晚公布的美国 PCE 数据。 国内方面，周四 A 股缩量收跌，红利风格独涨、双创板块领跌，两市成交额小幅缩量至 2.46 万亿，超 3800 只个股收跌，赚钱效应进一步走弱，市场近期活跃度一般，增量资金入 市动能不足。目前中东冲突仍在演绎、海外不确定上升仍对 A 股风险偏好形成压制，短期 市场大概率维持震荡与板块分化格局。债市走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment. For example, aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [26]; while industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend strength of -1, suggesting a relatively negative outlook [49]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to fluctuations in energy and commodity prices [138]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, some commodities like PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to be strong due to supply - side constraints, while others like动力煤 are facing price declines due to supply - demand imbalances [79][80][81][65]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and silver requires attention to liquidity contraction. The prices of gold and silver futures showed different trends, with Comex gold rising and some domestic gold contracts falling. ETF holdings of gold and silver decreased [7]. - **Copper**: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased slightly, and the London copper price also declined. There are geopolitical and industry - related news, such as the US increasing military deployment in the Middle East and Mongolia's re - negotiation of mining contracts [12]. - **Zinc**: The price is under pressure. The prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the London zinc 3M electronic disk both decreased, and there are relevant news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations [15]. - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase puts pressure on the price. The prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk decreased [22]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum needs to pay attention to Middle East supply issues, alumina's cost is rising, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are geopolitical and industry - related news [25]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum needs to pay attention to the support of actual demand, and palladium is generally pessimistic. The prices of platinum and palladium futures decreased [28]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, smelting inventory accumulation and macro - sentiment resonate, and the shortage of the ore end supports the lower price. Stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, but the actual cost provides support [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The prices of relevant contracts decreased, and there are news about new energy projects and industry development [41]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a range - bound pattern, and polysilicon's demand continues to weaken. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about energy - related meetings [46]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and a positive spread arbitrage is possible. The price of the iron ore futures contract increased, and there are relevant news about the government's work report and steel production [50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar**: The cost center has risen, and the prices are in a wide - range shock. The prices of relevant contracts increased slightly, and there are news about steel production, inventory, and trade [53]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market's long and short sentiments continue to compete, and the prices are in shock. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about iron alloy prices and production [57]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The downstream replenishment enthusiasm is fermenting, and the prices are in a wide - range shock. The prices of relevant contracts increased slightly, and there are news about coal price indexes and auctions [60]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand situation is loosening, and the coal price is回调. The prices of relevant contracts and spot prices showed different trends, and there are news about coal imports and market supply - demand [64]. - **Log**: The supply has recovered, the inventory has accumulated, and the log price has回调. The prices of relevant contracts decreased slightly, and there are news about demand and supply and real - estate policies [66]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still strong. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about supply - side strategies and market expectations [70]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of the rubber main contract decreased, and there are news about inventory and tire enterprise conditions [82]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a wide - range shock during the day, and the price center has moved up. The price of the synthetic rubber main contract decreased slightly, and there are news about inventory and market expectations [86]. - **Caustic Soda**: The driving force is upward, but the short - term valuation is slightly high. The price of the caustic soda futures contract increased, and there are news about supply - side production reduction and export [90]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock operation. The price of the pulp main contract increased slightly, and there are news about market supply - demand and price trends [94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass futures contract increased slightly, and there are news about the glass market price and trading [100]. - **Methanol**: It is running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract increased, and there are news about inventory and market supply - demand [103]. - **Urea**: It is in a wide - range shock, and the fundamentals support the price. The price of the urea main contract increased slightly, and there are news about inventory and market expectations [109]. - **Styrene**: It is in a strong shock. The price of the styrene main contract showed different trends, and there are news about supply - side reduction and export [112]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash futures contract increased slightly, and there are news about market supply - demand and price trends [115]. - **Propylene and LPG**: The cost side is affected by geopolitics, and the supply has a reduction expectation. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about price indexes and production plans [120]. - **PVC**: The driving force is upward, and attention should be paid to overseas supply. The price of the PVC futures contract increased, and there are news about supply - side production reduction and market expectations [128]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is in a slight consolidation, and the price is still at a high level in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range adjustment, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to rise [131]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They are in high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to upward risks. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about market transactions [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices of relevant contracts and spot prices are relatively stable, and there are news about market supply - demand [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a strong shock. The price of the pure benzene main contract showed different trends, and there are news about inventory and market transactions [148]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil has frequent speculation themes and is running strongly. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and is in a short - term high - level shock. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about production and export policies [153]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The market sentiment of soybean meal is strong and may rebound and shock. The spot price of soybeans in the production area is stable, and the disk is strong. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about market trends and quality concerns [160]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock operation. The price of the corn futures contract decreased slightly, and there are news about spot prices [163]. - **Sugar**: Driven by the rise in crude oil, it is in a shock - upward trend. The prices of relevant contracts and spot prices increased, and there are news about production and import [167]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the external market trend. The prices of relevant contracts decreased slightly, and there are news about the domestic and international cotton markets [171]. - **Egg**: It is in a range - bound shock. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about spot prices and feed prices [177]. - **Live Pig**: The inventory reduction and weight reduction may start, and the spot price is under pressure. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about spot prices and market trends [180]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about spot market transactions [183].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-16 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-16 所长 早读 第六轮中美经贸磋商在法国启动 观点分享： 据新华社消息，当地时间 3 月 15 日上午，中美两国经贸团队在法国巴黎开始举行中美 经贸磋商。人民日报钟声：今年是中美关系的"大年"，双方经贸关系能否如世界所盼，延 续稳下来的势头，本轮磋商意义重大。此次谈判的背景微妙，一是美国最高法院裁定部分对 华关税不合法，面临 1750 亿美元退税+利息的财政压力；二是美国企业与农业州强烈要求关 税松动；三是中东冲突推高全球通胀与能源风险，中美都需要稳经济、稳预期。此次谈判的 议题包括关税与 301 调查、 贸易平衡与供应链以及全球规则与多边主义等。对于磋商可能的结果，我们认为，美国 中期选举在即，对华强硬是政治刚需，全面取消关税概率不大；而中方绝不会牺牲发展权从 而接受单方面让步，所以取得重大突破的可能性不大，但谈总比不谈好。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | | | 原油 | ★★★★ | | | ...