Group 1: Global Economic and Political Landscape - The current period is marked by a restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, coinciding with China's economic transformation and upgrading [1] - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks in May indicates a temporary easing of bilateral trade relations, but deep-seated strategic competition is expected to persist, particularly in high-tech sectors [1] - China's "dual circulation" development strategy is being accelerated to address external challenges and stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - A significant turning point is anticipated in the global macro policy environment in the second half of 2025, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank [2] - China's fiscal policy will continue to play a crucial role in counter-cyclical adjustments, with plans for more robust fiscal measures, including increased special bond issuance and targeted support for housing and land reserves [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential further reductions in reserve requirements and loan prime rates [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Structural investment opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to focus on technology, new consumption, stable dividend assets, and central government leverage [5] - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and military applications, is highlighted as a key area for investment due to ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition [5] - The capital market is projected to exhibit resilience and vitality, with a focus on high-quality development and opportunities in autonomous innovation, consumption upgrades, and energy transition [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in Q1 2025, with the technology and manufacturing sectors leading the gains, particularly in humanoid robots and domestic computing power [1] - The core logic behind the technology sector's rise is driven by technological advancements, such as the emergence of DeepSeek, which enables equitable access to large models, and increased capital expenditure by domestic cloud providers, boosting the domestic computing power, especially in AIDC-related industries [1] - A foreign automotive company announced plans to mass-produce humanoid robots starting in 2025, marking a significant development year for the domestic robotics industry [1] Group 2 - After a significant rise over one quarter, the stock market capitalization of hot sectors reflects optimistic expectations for future industry development, although industry growth may take time and could be fraught with challenges [1] - Future stock prices of popular companies are expected to revert to fundamentals, with potential differentiation in the next round of market increases [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of embracing the era and seeking investment opportunities amid industrial changes, maintaining a strategy of actively looking for changes in the industry to invest in advantageous assets at reasonable prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for the Chinese A/H stock market following the release of a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and supporting economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy Measures - The financial policy package includes a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 10 basis points (bp) cut in policy interest rates, and a 25 bp reduction in public housing loan rates, along with a 500 billion yuan initiative for consumer services and elderly care [2]. - Additional measures include a 300 billion yuan increase in loans for technological innovation and upgrades, which are expected to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Investor Confidence - The policy aims to stabilize investor confidence and promote a coordinated investment and financing ecosystem in the capital market, enhancing the long-term value of equity investments [3]. - The article highlights that the combination of monetary easing and structural reforms will lead to a systematic decline in the discount rate for the Chinese stock market, making investments more attractive [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on sectors that will benefit from the declining risk-free interest rates and increased market participation, particularly in financial services and high-dividend stocks such as brokerage firms, insurance companies, and banks [3][4]. - It also suggests investing in emerging technologies with low exposure to external demand, including internet, media, gaming, domestic supply chain products, and pharmaceuticals [4].

Group 1 - The report outlines a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting transformation, introduced during a press conference by key financial leaders [1][2][7] - The monetary policy includes three categories and ten specific measures, focusing on quantity, price, and structure to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [10][11][12] - A targeted support for the real estate sector is highlighted, with a reduction in housing provident fund loan rates expected to stimulate demand and stabilize the market [16][17] Group 2 - The capital market is set to receive increased funding through systematic reforms, including the expansion of insurance capital investments and adjustments to regulatory frameworks to encourage long-term investments [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable capital market structure, aiming to attract long-term capital and enhance market resilience through various policy measures [20][21] - Historical data indicates that previous reductions in reserve requirements have led to positive market reactions, suggesting that the current policy measures may similarly boost market sentiment [21][24] Group 3 - Future investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors such as domestic computing power, industrial machinery, and defense industries, driven by policy support and global technological trends [28] - The report suggests that sectors sensitive to interest rate declines, such as real estate development and home improvement, may benefit from the current economic policies [28] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to discretionary spending and healthcare, are expected to thrive due to lower mortgage rates and supportive consumption policies [28]

Group 1: Cloud Computing and AI Infrastructure - The outlook for capital expenditure from cloud giants is positive, with significant growth observed in core companies such as optical modules and copper connections in Q1 [1][2] - Google's Q1 2025 report indicated a 28% year-on-year increase in cloud revenue, with capital expenditure reaching $17.2 billion (up 43% year-on-year) and an expected annual capital expenditure of $75 billion [1] - Amazon clarified that its recent adjustments in data center leasing are part of routine capacity management and do not indicate a reduction in overall data center construction plans [1] Group 2: Domestic Computing Power and AIDC Sector - The AIDC sector is driven by expectations as new capacity investments take time to convert into revenue, with significant growth in fixed assets and construction projects reported by companies like Runze Technology and Aofei Data [3] - Changes in H20 sales regulations are expected to accelerate the adoption of domestic computing power in the second half of the year, with companies like Ascend, Haiguang, and Cambricon being highlighted as key players [3] Group 3: Optical Communication and Copper Connection - Strong capital expenditure is leading to high certainty in performance for sectors such as optical modules, PCB, copper connections, and power supplies, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng reporting substantial profit increases [2] - In the copper connection sector, companies like Wolong Nuclear Materials and Dingtong Technology reported year-on-year profit increases of 39% and 212%, respectively [2] Group 4: Military Information Technology - The recovery of orders in military information technology is notable, with satellite internet projects expected to drive demand for new satellite payloads and ground terminal equipment [4] Group 5: Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch in the optical communication sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Shijia Photon [5] - In the copper connection sector, recommended stocks include Wolong Nuclear Materials and Dingtong Technology [6] - For domestic computing power, companies like Cambricon and Haiguang are highlighted, while in military information technology, stocks such as Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology are recommended [6]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]

文 ｜ 刘春彤 裘翔 ▍ 风险因素： 亮马组合是基于策略聚焦观点和行业研究精选推荐，遴选出的月度金股组合。本篇报告为2 0 2 5年 第4期，更新中信证券4月1 0大金股组合。时点上，关注4月初外部不确定性因素落地后的交易性机 会。配置上，我们建议从科技点火、供给侧反内卷、内续补短板角度，关注产业逻辑清晰的几大方 向：国产算力、端侧AI、创新药、新能源、可选消费等。此外，我们也在红利、制造等方向选择 了部分优质标的，以实现组合配置多元化。 中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策或经济复苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期 收紧等 ▍ 本期更新中信证券2 0 2 5年4月金股组合。 。 ▍ 板块配置：外部风险落地后，聚焦产业逻辑清晰的绩优成长股。 关键时点是4月初外部风险落地，包括美国优先贸易政策备忘录调查结果公布以及"对等关税"加 征方式和范围的明朗。从风险落地后的进攻方向上看，经过3月大幅调整且持续有催化的科技主 题，因其弱宏观关联和强产业催化，预计会成为4 - 5月占优方向。资金面角度，增量资金或来自 前期高切低回补、仓位回补及部分追逐港股的趋势资金回流。科技领域建议延续端侧AI+国产算 力的主线配置， ...