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交易所限仓叠加供给端预期反复,新能源金属维持高位震荡
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 04:30
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10][12] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to exchange position limits and fluctuating supply - side expectations, new energy metals maintain high - level oscillations. The contraction expectation and cost increase expectation of the supply side support the prices of new energy metals, but the position limits and unconfirmed news lead to repeated capital expectations, causing high - level oscillations in prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is a game between sentiment and reality, and silicon prices continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, market sentiment is volatile, leading to increased price fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, the market direction is unclear, and it oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Information analysis: As of July 31, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 442,900 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 27.7% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in June was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month increase and an 11.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in June was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [6]. - Main logic: On the supply side, the submerged arc furnaces of large northwest factories that were under maintenance have recently resumed production, and the resumption of production in the southwest has accelerated. In the short term, the reduction in the northwest still dominates supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The inventory of warehouse receipts has a certain support for silicon prices, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: Silicon factories have a strong willingness to hold prices, and prices have moved up. Macro sentiment and coal prices drive silicon prices to continue to oscillate in the short term. The subsequent resumption rhythm and intensity in the northwest need further observation [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Information analysis: The transaction price of N - type re - feed material was in the range of 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 3,200 lots, an increase of 130 lots. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase and a 39.67% year - on - year decrease. The import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to June 2025 was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase [7]. - Main logic: Macroscopically, market risk sentiment has declined, and polysilicon prices have fallen again due to exchange position limits. In terms of supply, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest has increased. It is expected that the output will continue to rise in July - August. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit supply. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation in the first five months increased significantly, but it over - consumed the demand for the second half of the year, and the demand may weaken. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation of polysilicon, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [9][10]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted polysilicon prices. If the policy expectation is falsified, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Information analysis: On July 31, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 3.29% to 68,280 yuan, and the total open interest decreased by 27,750 lots to 699,164 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade decreased by 950 yuan to 69,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 785 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 69,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 7,586 tons to 5,545 tons [10][11]. - Main logic: Currently, the supply - demand drivers are not strong, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. The weekly output has slightly decreased, mainly due to production cuts in salt lakes and mica mines. The demand is not significantly higher than expected, and the production schedule in August is relatively stable. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the remaining amount of warehouse receipt inventory after centralized cancellation meets expectations. The willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has recovered as prices rise, and warehouse receipts may gradually recover in August. In general, the domestic supply - demand is in a rough balance in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are the anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is confirmed, if market sentiment recovers, the price may rise. If the shutdown is falsified, it will return to fundamental trading; if confirmed, it will cause a large gap in the third quarter and drive prices up [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation [12].
交易所限仓叠加供给端预期反复,新能源金属再现巨震
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:12
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating [9] Core Views of the Report - Exchange position limits and repeated supply - side expectations have led to significant fluctuations in new - energy metals. For lithium in Jiangxi, without official confirmation of production cuts, caution is needed when using futures to bet on long or short positions. Options can be used to cautiously bet on potential lithium price increases. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, if there is no substantial contraction on the supply - side or significant improvement on the demand - side, prices may fall [1]. - Market sentiment for industrial silicon has cooled, leading to a sharp decline in prices; a significant drop in coal prices has caused polysilicon prices to fall; market sentiment for lithium carbonate has been volatile, with the contract hitting the daily limit down [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of July 28, SMM data shows that the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9950 yuan/ton, and 421 is 10200 yuan/ton. The latest domestic inventory is 442,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. In June, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. In June, exports were 68,323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations were 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45% [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northwest factories' previously overhauled furnaces have recently resumed production, and southwest factories are accelerating resumption. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The reduction in the northwest still dominates short - term supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. The inventory of warehouse receipts provides some support, but the speed of reduction has slowed down [5]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment decline, rapid coal price drop, and further supply recovery have weakened price support, suppressing the upside space [6]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.2%. In May, exports were about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In May, imports were about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations were 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The significant decline in coal prices last Friday led to a drop in polysilicon prices. On the supply side, production capacity in the southwest is rising with the arrival of the wet season. On the demand side, although photovoltaic installations increased significantly from January to May, it has overdrafted the demand for the second half of the year, and subsequent demand may weaken [7]. - **Outlook**: Anti - involution policies have significantly boosted polysilicon prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy expectations are false, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On July 28, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by 9.19% to 73,120 yuan, and the total contract positions decreased by 107,784 to 800,394 hands. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 1000 yuan to 73,900 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 1000 yuan to 71,700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Main Logic**: Current supply - demand drivers are weak, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. In the third quarter, domestic supply - demand is generally balanced, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is clear, if market sentiment recovers, prices may rise. There is high short - term uncertainty, and options are recommended for speculation [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support prices, and prices are expected to oscillate [9].
有色金属行业报告(2025.07.21-2025.07.25):供需失衡催化小金属牛市,钨、钴、稀土价格有望继续上涨
China Post Securities· 2025-07-28 04:10
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance is catalyzing a bull market for minor metals, with prices for tungsten, cobalt, and rare earths expected to continue rising [4] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise in the second half of the year due to downstream enterprises beginning to replenish inventory and the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] - Tungsten prices have increased by 3.30% this week, with black tungsten concentrate prices nearing 190,000 yuan/ton, a 25.33% increase from May's low [5] - The demand for tungsten is bolstered by a significant increase in military orders, with the Ministry of Defense announcing a total of 978 billion yuan in new military orders for the 2025 fiscal year, a 16.8% year-on-year increase [5] - Lithium prices have surged due to optimistic supply expectations, with recommendations to buy on dips as prices may recover to 80,000-90,000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.9%, ranking second among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 1.03%, aluminum by 0.79%, zinc by 0.86%, lead increased by 0.30%, and tin by 0.65% [20] - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 3.06%, silver by 3.37%, while nickel decreased by 0.39% and cobalt increased by 0.82% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventory changes: copper decreased by 895 tons, aluminum increased by 6,166 tons, zinc increased by 374 tons, and lead increased by 3,675 tons [27]
有色钢铁行业周思考(2025年第30周):重申钢铁板块在“反内卷”背景下的中期投资逻辑
Orient Securities· 2025-07-27 15:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing its mid-term investment value under the "anti-involution" policy context [9][14]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is expected to have fundamental support for mid-term investment value, driven by supply-side, cost, and profit release expectations [9][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a short-term catalyst for realizing mid-term investment logic, with three favorable mid-term logic points identified [9][14]. Supply and Demand Logic - The ultra-low emission transformation is nearing completion, which is expected to reverse structural supply issues and serve as a mid-term capacity clearance tool [15]. - As of April 20, 2025, approximately 760 million tons of capacity have completed or partially completed ultra-low emission transformations [15]. - Downstream demand from infrastructure and shipbuilding industries is anticipated to grow, supporting steel price stabilization and profit release [15]. Cost Logic - The West Mangu project is set to commence production by the end of 2025, with an annual output of 120 million tons, potentially contributing nearly 5% to global supply [15]. - The project is expected to alleviate profit pressure on midstream steel companies from upstream raw material costs [15]. High Dividend Logic - With the completion of ultra-low emission transformations and capacity replacements, capital expenditures for steel companies are expected to decline [15]. - The report anticipates accelerated profit release for midstream steel companies, making high dividends a reality [15]. Steel Price Outlook - The report indicates that the steel price index is expected to continue rising, with a notable increase of 4.16% in the overall steel price index this week [35]. - The price of cold-rolled steel has seen a significant rise of 4.67% [35]. Inventory and Production Data - The report notes a weekly rebar consumption of 2.17 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.05% [16]. - Social inventory and steel mill inventory are showing signs of divergence, with expectations for continued improvement on the demand side [22]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95% in lithium carbonate production in June 2025, reaching 71,890 tons [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with June 2025 production of 1.1923 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.11% [43]. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen significantly, reaching 77,000 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 17.56% [48]. - Nickel prices have also shown upward trends, with LME nickel settling at 15,330 USD per ton [48].
周报:供应侧减产预期主导锂价,成本上移提供辅助支撑-20250727
Huafu Securities· 2025-07-27 11:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side production cuts are expected to dominate lithium prices, with rising costs providing additional support [3][17]. - In the precious metals sector, market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to pressure from President Trump, which is expected to support gold prices in the short term [2][10]. - For industrial metals, a tight supply of copper is anticipated to continue, while seasonal factors may lead to fluctuations in aluminum prices [3][12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, which has raised concerns about its independence. This uncertainty is expected to bolster market risk aversion, supporting gold prices in an environment where they are likely to rise more easily than fall [2][10]. - Key stocks to watch include major players like Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, with additional focus on silver and platinum stocks [2][11]. Industrial Metals - The copper market is characterized by a continued tight supply, with expectations of reduced production from some smelters due to low profit margins. The report anticipates that copper prices will remain supported by ongoing demand, particularly from the renewable energy sector [3][12][13]. - Aluminum prices are expected to experience volatility due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term prospects remain positive due to persistent demand from the new energy sector [3][16]. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with production cuts from lithium salt plants providing limited support. However, the report suggests that lithium remains a strategic investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [3][17][18]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Salt Lake Potash, Canggu Mining, and Yongxing Materials, with additional focus on companies like Jiangte Motor and Tianqi Lithium [3][17]. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing strong pricing for light rare earth products due to supply constraints, while heavy rare earths are facing weaker demand. The report notes a divergence in market sentiment, with cautious optimism prevailing despite concerns over potential price corrections [4][19][22]. - Key stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Zhongtian Rare Earth [4][22]. Market Review - The report indicates that the non-ferrous index rose by 6.7%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices. Notable stock performances include Zhongtung High-tech with a 40.19% increase and Hai Xing Co. with a 19.04% decline [23][24][25].
反内卷炒作延续,锂价涨势引领新能源金属
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:41
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [12][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution hype continues, and the rising lithium price leads the new energy metals. The contraction expectation of the supply side and the cost increase expectation are strengthened. Lithium price is in the leading position, and one can bet on potential lithium price increases through options. The polysilicon price may slow down after a rapid rise [2]. - For industrial silicon, the "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, and the coal price increase supports the cost. The spot price is rising, and the silicon price shows a short - term upward - biased oscillation [8]. - For polysilicon, the anti - involution policy boosts the price significantly, but attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy fails to meet expectations, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [11]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of July 24, the prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 10,100 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively. As of July 18, the domestic inventory was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8%. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. In June, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply shows a pattern of "decrease in the north and increase in the south". The large factories in the northwest continue to reduce production, supporting the silicon price. The demand is still weak year - on - year, but there are short - term marginal improvement signals. The inventory has changed from destocking to slight accumulation. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [7]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, and the coal price increase supports the cost. The silicon price shows a short - term upward - biased oscillation, but risks of price adjustment due to sentiment decline and supply recovery should be guarded against [8]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.2%. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 3,020 lots, an increase of 240 lots from the previous value. In May, the export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,167.32 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.68%. In May, the import volume was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.72%. From January to June, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107% [8]. - **Main Logic**: Since July, there have been many supply - side news in the silicon industry chain. The price of polysilicon has risen significantly. The southwest production capacity has increased with the arrival of the wet season. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The supply - demand situation still has pressure, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [11]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy boosts the polysilicon price, but if the policy fails to meet expectations, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On July 24, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 10.52% to 76,680 yuan. The total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 124,830 lots to 816,142 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 70,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 68,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 795 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 70,000 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 900 tons to 11,654 tons [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand drive is weakening, and the price is affected by market sentiment. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the warehouse receipt inventory has been rapidly decreasing. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the price is likely to rise [12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation [12].
新能源观点:反内卷炒作降温,新能源金属价格巨震-20250724
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:04
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-07-24 反内卷炒作降温,新能源金属价格巨震 新能源观点:反内卷炒作降温,新能源⾦属价格巨震 交易逻辑:中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能,投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强,国内锂供应也出现扰动,市场情绪一度非常乐观, 新能源金属价格走势趋强;但价格短时间内过快上涨并不利于供应端 收缩,反倒是可能增加供给端收缩政策推进的难度,密切留意产业链 动向。中短期来看,供应端收缩预期和成本抬升预期强化,新能源金 属价格一度加速上涨,但在实际供需没有明显改善且累库风险可能增 加背景下,乐观情绪消退引发资金获利了结,这也使得新能源金属价 格出现巨震,新能源金属多头押注可考虑暂时获利了结。 ⼯业硅观点:"反内卷"情绪仍在,硅价有所回升。 多晶硅观点:市场情绪反复,多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点:市场情绪反复,锂价冲⾼后回调。 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 白帅 从业资格 ...
中信期货研究(新能源?属每?报告):反内卷进一步发酵,新能源金属价格走势偏强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:15
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-07-23 反内卷进一步发酵,新能源金属价格走势偏 强 新能源观点:反内卷进⼀步发酵,新能源⾦属价格⾛势偏强 交易逻辑:中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能,投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强,国内锂供应也出现扰动,市场情绪偏乐观,新能源金 属价格走势趋强。中短期来看,供应端收缩预期强化,新能源金属价 格偏强势,后续密切留意产业链动向,在乐观情绪没有消退前以谨慎 偏多思路对待,谨慎的投资者可继续考虑用期权押注多晶硅和碳酸锂 进一步潜在上涨机会;同时,也提醒下,需谨防政策预期短期无法兑 现但现实供需偏弱背景下,新能源金属价格双边波动风险。 ⼯业硅观点:"反内卷"情绪⾼涨,硅价持续⾛⾼。 多晶硅观点:反内卷政策延续发酵,多晶硅价格延续抬升。 碳酸锂观点:"反内卷"与供应扰动叠加,锂价短期偏强。 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号:F03093201 投资咨 ...
中信期货新能源属每报告:反内卷进?步发酵,新能源?属价格?势偏强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 09:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [9][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution sentiment has further fermented, leading to a strong price trend for new energy metals. The central financial meeting's mention of phasing out backward production capacity in an orderly manner has strengthened investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon, and there are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply. The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is a risk of bilateral price fluctuations for new energy metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis** - As of July 17, the spot prices of industrial silicon continued to rise, with the oxygen - passing 553 in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton and 421 at 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - In May, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - **Main Logic** - Northwest large factories are continuously reducing production, providing price support. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but some silicon factories have resumed production due to the price increase. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory tends to accumulate in the long term [8]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution sentiment continues, and the spot and futures prices have rebounded. The silicon price is expected to be oscillating with a short - term upward bias, but the slowdown in warehouse receipt removal will limit the upside [8]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis** - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.4% [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9,167.32 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [9]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain is volatile. The polysilicon futures price has continued to rebound, and policy expectations have significantly boosted the silicon price. The supply is expected to increase in June - July, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of reverse fluctuations if the policy is not implemented as expected [11]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of price decline if the policy expectations are not fulfilled [11]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis** - On July 17, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% to 67,960 yuan, and the total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 17,801 to 637,419 [11]. - On July 17, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 63,350 yuan/ton [12]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side disturbances have been hyped up. The current supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the supply - demand margin has improved. The price is likely to rise but the upside may be limited [12]. - **Outlook** - In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [12].
硅供应收缩预期强化,新能源?属价格?势趋强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 08:29
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-07-15 硅供应收缩预期强化,新能源⾦属价格⾛势 趋强 新能源观点:硅供应收缩预期强化,新能源⾦属价格⾛势趋强 交易逻辑:中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能,投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强,市场情绪转向偏乐观,新能源金属价格走势趋强。 中短期来看,供应端收缩预期强化,工业硅和多晶硅价格大幅上涨, 这在一定程度上对碳酸锂也构成较为正面的提振,后续密切留意产业 链动向,需谨防政策预期短期无法兑现但现实供需偏弱背景下,新能 源金属价格双边波动风险;长期来看,低价或有望进一步加快国内自 主定价品种的产能出清,比如:多晶硅和工业硅等,碳酸锂还处于产 能兑现阶段,若锂矿无实质性减产,长期过剩问题还将存在,这将限 制价格上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点:"反内卷"情绪持续,硅价有所回升 多晶硅观点:反内卷政策延续发酵,多晶硅价格⾼位运⾏ 碳酸锂观点:"反内卷"背景下的供应扰动炒作,碳酸锂增仓⼤涨 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F ...