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硅供应收缩预期强化,新能源金属价格再度走强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 06:29
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the outlook for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [5][8][9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Central Financial Conference re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction of silicon, leading to a significant rise in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price increase of industrial silicon and polysilicon has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestic self - priced products, but the long - term over - supply problem of lithium carbonate may limit the price increase [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of July 2, the spot price of industrial silicon has slightly rebounded. Domestic inventory decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. In May, the domestic monthly output was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Exports in May were 55,652 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.0% [5] - **Main Logic**: Sudden production cuts by large northwest factories support prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve. The southwest is in the wet season, and the resumption of production is slower than usual. The demand side is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week. As the silicon price rebounds, supply may recover, and inventory may accumulate again [5] - **Outlook**: The fundamental over - supply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The current price increase is driven by policy expectations, and the price is expected to oscillate [5][6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy has taken effect, and the polysilicon price has rebounded significantly [6] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock is 34,700 yuan/ton, a slight increase. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon futures price hit the daily limit. Short - term production is low, and it is expected to rise to over 100,000 tons in June - July. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation [8] - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in supply. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, the lithium price remains oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On July 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88%. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 350 yuan/ton. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line [9] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment is good, and demand production scheduling expectations are positive. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to be good in July. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices after a rebound [9] - **Outlook**: Supply and demand remain in surplus, but the short - term reduction of warehouse receipts supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [9]
新能源观点:供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反弹-20250627
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 03:04
供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反 弹 新能源观点:供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反弹 交易逻辑:新能源金属价格跌跌不休,供应阶段性小幅收缩,但新能 源金属供需并未出现明显好转,偏过剩格局还在延续,若要扭转当前 颓势,我们必须得看到供应端明显收缩才行,密切关注产业动态。 中短期来看,新能源金属价格走势偏弱,但随着价格持续跌至重要成 本区域,市场供应端扰动传闻再现,新能源金属价格出现弱反弹, 稳健的投资者可继续关注宽跨式期权组合押注波动;中长期来看, 低价或有望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能出清,比如:多晶硅 和工业硅等。 ⼯业硅观点:仓单去化叠加供应扰动,硅价短期反弹 多晶硅观点:供应存在扰动,多晶硅价格短期反复 碳酸锂观点:市场情绪较强,碳酸锂继续上涨 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-06-27 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 投资咨询号:Z0022534 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信 ...
新能源观点:供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反弹-20250625
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 06:41
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-06-25 供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反 弹 新能源观点:供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反弹 交易逻辑:新能源金属价格跌跌不休,供应阶段性小幅收缩,但新能 源金属供需并未出现明显好转,偏过剩格局还在延续,若要扭转当前 颓势,我们必须得看到供应端明显收缩才行,密切关注产业动态。 中短期来看,新能源金属价格走势偏弱,但随着价格持续跌至重要成 本区域,市场供应端扰动传闻再现,新能源金属价格出现弱反弹, 稳健的投资者可继续关注宽跨式期权组合押注波动;中长期来看, 低价或有望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能出清,比如:多晶硅 和工业硅等。 ⼯业硅观点:西北供应继续回升,硅价承压震荡 多晶硅观点:需求边际走弱,多晶硅短期承压 碳酸锂观点:仓单持续去化,盘面减仓反弹 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号:F03093201 投资咨询号:Z002 ...
有色钢铁行业周观点(2025年第25周):从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价值-20250623
Orient Securities· 2025-06-23 12:01
Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].
周报:刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期,或提振钴价上行-20250622
Huafu Securities· 2025-06-22 13:07
行 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 22 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20250622 周报:刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期,或 提振钴价上行 投资要点: 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属:美国关税政策反复,黄金长期配置价值不改。近期多项美国 经济数据展现疲软态势,进一步加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。经济数据 走弱将为美联储未来降息提供依据。根据钢联援引世界黄金协会调查数据, 全球73家央行中有76%预计未来五年将持续增持黄金以分散对美元资产的 依赖,凸显地缘因素及美元信用下滑背景下央行购金意愿。短期而言,美 "对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性引发市场避险情绪支撑金价,整体呈 现易涨难跌格局;中长期而言,全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景 下,避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心,长期配置价值不改。个股:黄 金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金,低估弹性关注株冶集团,其 他关注湖南黄金及招金矿业;白银建议关注兴业银锡、盛达资源。 分析师: 王保庆(S0210522090001) WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、地缘危机与美联储降息预期共振,黄金走强— —2025.06.14 2、美对华上调钢铁和铝关 ...
贵金属蓄势待发:滞胀交易的演进
China Post Securities· 2025-06-09 03:55
证券研究报告:有色金属|行业周报 发布时间:2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4842.88 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期扰动不改黄金上行趋势》 - 2025.06.03 有色金属行业报告 (2025.06.02-2022. ...
成本弱支撑预期,新能源金属价格反弹
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 08:14
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-06-05 成本弱支撑预期,新能源金属价格反弹 新能源观点:成本弱⽀撑预期,新能源⾦属价格反弹 交易逻辑:新能源金属价格跌跌不休,供应阶段性小幅收缩,国内能 源价格止跌给了成本弱支撑预期,但新能源金属供需并未出现明显好 转,偏过剩格局还在延续。若要扭转当前颓势,我们必须得看到供应 端明显收缩才行,密切关注产业动态。中短期来看,新能源金属价格 走势偏弱,谨慎参与为宜,稳健的投资者可继续通过宽跨式期权押注 波动;中长期来看,低价或有望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能 出清,比如:多晶硅和工业硅等。 ⼯业硅观点:丰⽔期供增需弱,硅价承压震荡。 多晶硅观点:仓单注册数量增加,多晶硅宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点:市场情绪偏强,碳酸锂跟涨。 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 白帅 从业资格号:F03093201 投资咨询号:Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号:F03108013 投资咨询号:Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z002145 ...
供需偏弱,新能源金属价格维持弱势
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 05:08
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(新能源⾦属每⽇报告) 2025-06-04 供需偏弱,新能源金属价格维持弱势 新能源观点:供需偏弱,新能源⾦属价格维持弱势 交易逻辑:新能源金属价格跌跌不休,供应阶段性小幅收缩,但新能 源金属供需并未出现明显好转,偏过剩格局还在延续,若扭转当前颓 势,我们必须得看到供应端明显收缩才行,密切关注产业动态。中短 期来看,新能源金属价格走势偏弱,谨慎参与为宜,稳健的投资者可 继续通过宽跨式期权押注波动;中长期来看,低价或有望进一步加快 国内自主定价品种的产能出清,比如:多晶硅和工业硅等。 ⼯业硅观点:丰⽔期供增需弱,硅价承压下⾏。 多晶硅观点:多空博弈加剧,多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点:矿价⽀撑继续下移,锂价承压运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰:供应扰动;国内政策刺激超预期;美联储鸽派不及预期; 国内需求复苏不及预期;经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员: 李苏横 从业资格号:F03093505 投资咨询号:Z0017197 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号:F03093201 投资咨询号:Z0020543 杨飞 ...
周报:后市稀土管制或有放松可能,看涨氛围渐浓-20250519
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-19 08:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs has led to a short-term suppression of gold prices, but the long-term investment value of gold remains unchanged [10][11] - The industrial metals sector is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, making prices more likely to rise than fall [12][13] - In the renewable energy metals sector, lithium prices are expected to remain stable, with strategic investment opportunities still available [16][17] - The report notes a potential easing of rare earth controls, creating a bullish sentiment in the market [18][20] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The easing of tariffs between the US and China has created a short-term pressure on gold prices, but the long-term investment value remains intact. The report suggests focusing on companies like Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [10][11][12] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for copper remain tight, supporting price stability. The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts will further bolster copper prices in the medium to long term. Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining [12][13][14] Renewable Energy Metals - The report indicates that while there may be a slight increase in export orders due to eased tariffs, the overall supply-demand balance for lithium remains weak in the short term. Strategic investment opportunities are highlighted for companies like Salt Lake Potash and Ganfeng Lithium [16][17] Other Minor Metals - The report suggests that the potential easing of rare earth controls could lead to increased prices, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth being of interest [18][20]
有色金属行业报告:关税预期缓解,黄金或迎底部做多时机
China Post Securities· 2025-05-06 02:23
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]