Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous metals industry and its outlook for 2026, indicating a potential bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, which, combined with a strengthening trend of de-dollarization, will enhance global liquidity and increase demand for physical assets like non-ferrous metals [1]. Demand Dynamics - The adjustment of U.S. tariff policies is reshaping global supply chains, leading to accelerated demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly from emerging industries such as AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic resource stockpiling due to rising geopolitical risks, which is expected to further boost demand [1]. Supply Challenges - The non-ferrous mining sector is facing low supply elasticity due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, which is expected to continue affecting supply [1]. - Resource-rich countries are increasingly controlling strategic minerals, adding uncertainty to supply chains [1]. Specific Metal Insights Precious Metals - A decline in real interest rates and de-dollarization are expected to drive gold prices higher, with silver also benefiting from this trend [2]. - The report anticipates strong performance for base metals like copper, aluminum, and tin due to emerging demand and supply constraints [2]. Copper - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage, with significant disruptions from natural disasters and safety incidents affecting production [9][10]. - Demand from clean energy and global grid investments is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for copper used in clean energy from 2024 to 2026 [10]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is poised for a bull market, driven by improving demand from traditional sectors and new energy vehicles [12][14]. - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with domestic production reaching capacity limits [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to rise due to increased demand from the semiconductor industry and supply disruptions from illegal mining crackdowns in Indonesia [15][23]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are projected to remain bullish due to export quota management in the Democratic Republic of Congo and increasing demand from high-performance batteries [17][18]. Lithium - The lithium market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, despite short-term demand support from seasonal peaks [19][20]. Uranium - Uranium prices are recovering due to limited supply and increased strategic interest from funds, with a focus on high-quality resources in Kazakhstan [21][22]. Tungsten - The tungsten market is characterized by tight supply and strong demand growth, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure projects [23][25]. Rare Earth Elements - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles and high-performance magnets, with supply constraints pushing prices higher [26][27]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of non-ferrous metals in the context of global economic shifts and the need for investors to focus on companies with strong cash flow, resource potential, and acquisition capabilities [2][11][12]. - Risks such as potential obstacles to Federal Reserve rate cuts, lower-than-expected demand, and supply disruptions are highlighted as critical factors that could impact the market [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with a recommendation to hold positions and wait for the next upward wave. Gold is suggested to be bought around $3950 per ounce, as the market may face a 2-3 month adjustment period due to previous rapid price increases [3] - For copper, supply disruptions are expected to elevate price levels, with a recommendation to buy on dips as the market adjusts. The report notes a 1.80% decline in LME copper prices this week, but anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 [4] - The aluminum sector is transitioning from peak to off-peak demand, with a reported 61.6% operating rate among domestic processing enterprises. Despite a slight decrease in demand, long-term price stability is expected due to overseas electricity supply risks [4] - Tungsten prices have seen a slight increase due to ongoing supply constraints, with a stable production forecast from key provinces [5] - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to optimistic demand forecasts driven by AI and energy storage needs, with significant growth anticipated in the coming months [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7592.23, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper down by 1.80%, aluminum down by 0.90%, zinc up by 0.54%, and lead up by 0.99%. Precious metals experienced a slight decline, with COMEX gold down by 0.14% and silver down by 0.05% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventories increased by 18,668 tons, while aluminum inventories decreased by 9,448 tons. Zinc inventories rose by 1,094 tons, and lead inventories decreased by 16,342 tons [31][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that international relations have improved, leading to a further increase in spot aluminum prices [3]. - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices have been supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, although recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have put pressure on these prices [12]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are expected to remain supported due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [3][19]. - The lithium market is experiencing a shift in demand from electric vehicles to energy storage, which is expected to support lithium prices in the short term [19]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand in the hard alloy sector and a tight supply outlook [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are under pressure due to a decrease in the probability of further Fed rate cuts and a strengthening dollar [11][12]. - Silver prices have also been affected, with recent data showing a decline in manufacturing activity in the U.S. [12]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices have been buoyed by improved international relations, maintaining levels above 21,000 CNY/ton [3][17]. - Copper supply remains constrained due to production disruptions in major mining countries, while demand is expected to recover as construction projects resume [14][19]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand for energy storage solutions, with expectations of a significant supply-demand balance improvement by 2026 [19]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to low demand and production cuts in the domestic market [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand and tight supply conditions, with market sentiment remaining bullish [24]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the rare earth market, with some prices increasing while others decline [24]. Market Review - The report provides a weekly market review, highlighting significant stock movements, with Shenzhen New Star leading with a 32.62% increase [31].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of platinum and palladium futures and options by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant expansion of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's (GFEX) green metal derivatives segment, enhancing risk management tools for the industry and supporting the development of green industries [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Significance - Platinum and palladium are essential raw materials for green industries, particularly in automotive exhaust treatment, wind power, and hydrogen energy sectors [1][2]. - In 2024, approximately 60% of platinum and nearly 80% of palladium in China will be used for automotive exhaust catalysts and related green applications [2]. - The healthy development of the platinum and palladium industry is crucial for promoting green development, especially under the "dual carbon" goals [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global platinum and palladium resources are predominantly concentrated in South Africa and Russia, which together hold over 90% of the world's reserves [4]. - Price volatility for platinum and palladium has been significant, with fluctuations exceeding 20% for platinum and 40% for palladium from 2020 to 2024, posing risks across the industry chain [4][5]. Group 3: Risk Management Tools - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures and options is expected to provide essential risk management tools for enterprises, allowing them to hedge against price fluctuations and reduce operational risks [1][5][7]. - The futures market will facilitate a more refined price management approach for companies, enhancing their ability to engage in hedging and risk mitigation strategies [6][7]. Group 4: Pricing Mechanism - The establishment of a domestic pricing mechanism for platinum and palladium through futures will help create a "China price," enabling Chinese enterprises to gain pricing power in international trade [6]. - The futures market will provide a transparent and continuous pricing signal, aiding enterprises in trade activities and spot pricing [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Supply - side policy expectations are fluctuating, and new energy metals continue to oscillate. In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are again dominating the market, with lithium carbonate leading the decline among new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise; lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. For polysilicon, market sentiment is cooling, and polysilicon prices are oscillating at a high level. For lithium carbonate, sentiment is suppressing the price decline, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues [3][6][7][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. Mid - term outlook is oscillating. - **Data Analysis**: As of November 6, 2025, the oxygen - passed 553 in East China is 9450 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 9700 yuan/ton. The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. As of October 2025, the monthly domestic production is 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In September, the export volume is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In September, the single - month new photovoltaic installed capacity is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76% [6]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest is coming, and the number of open furnaces in the southwest continues to decline. In the northwest, the supply is stable, and large factories may resume production. On the demand side, in November, the production of polysilicon in the southwest will decrease during the dry season, and the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly. The inventory of industrial silicon has been decreasing recently, which supports the market [6]. Polysilicon - **View**: Market sentiment is cooling, and polysilicon prices are oscillating at a high level. Mid - term outlook is oscillating. - **Data Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In September, the export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%; the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the positive impact of Sino - US trade negotiations has been realized, and market risk appetite has cooled. On the supply side, production has recovered in August - September and is expected to remain high in October and contract in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installed capacity growth rate was high in the first half of the year, but demand has weakened since June. Overall, the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, but it is expected to improve during the dry season, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Sentiment is suppressing the price decline, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues. Mid - term outlook is oscillating. - **Data Analysis**: On November 5, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.74% to 79,140 yuan/ton; the total contract positions increased by 1,333 to 828,733. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 80,500 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 78,300 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 11 US dollars/ton to 920 US dollars/ton. The warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 26,830 [10]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, and de - stocking is expected to continue in November. Supply is expected to be strong in November - December, and there is an additional import expectation in November. Demand is currently strong, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the possible weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. Social inventory is de - stocking, and recently, warehouse receipts have been decreasing. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [10]. 2. Market Monitoring - No specific content for market monitoring analysis is provided in the given text, only the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are mentioned [12][18][30] 3. Commodity Index - On November 5, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures is 2233.64, up 0.18%; the commodity 20 index is 2526.40, up 0.18%; the industrial product index is 2213.59, unchanged; the PPI commodity index is 1335.37, down 0.17%. The new energy commodity index is 410.23, up 0.56% today, down 3.47% in the past 5 days, up 3.64% in the past month, and down 0.53% since the beginning of the year [52][53]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are fluctuating and driving the market. Lithium carbonate is leading the decline in new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The production capacity of lithium ore is still rising, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon is fluctuating, causing the silicon price to decline. The sentiment for polysilicon has cooled, and it is oscillating at a high level. The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price has declined. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [5]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are 9450 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a 0.6% increase month - on - month. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 264,700 tons, a 1.0% increase month - on - month [5]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% increase month - on - month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to October was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% decrease year - on - year [5]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70,233 tons, an 8.4% decrease month - on - month and a 7.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 561,000 tons, a 2.3% increase year - on - year [5]. - The new photovoltaic installation in September was 9.66GW, a 53.76% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative new photovoltaic installation from January to September reached 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decrease as the dry season approaches, while the supply in the northwest is stable with potential for further production resumption. The overall supply of domestic industrial silicon remains relatively loose. The demand from the polysilicon industry in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November, the organic silicon DMC market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [5]. - **Outlook**: Although the reduction in southwest production during the dry season and the rapid reduction of short - term warehouse receipts provide some support, there is still supply pressure in November. The silicon price is expected to oscillate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9590 lots, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2150 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 18,667 tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in September was about 1292 tons, a 49.46% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative import from January to September was 14,677 tons, a 53.26% year - on - year decrease [6]. - The new domestic photovoltaic installation from January to September 2025 was 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [6]. - Some polysilicon production bases in the southwest are gradually reducing raw material input and are expected to fully stop production from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk appetite has cooled. The production of polysilicon has rebounded in August - September and is expected to remain high in October, but will contract in November with the arrival of the dry season. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Although the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, it is expected to improve during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 4.52% to 78,560 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 82,510 lots to 827,400 lots [8]. - On November 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton to 941 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots [9]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to October is estimated to be 12.054 million, a 30% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease in November. However, the supply expectations are fluctuating, causing significant price fluctuations. The production is expected to remain strong from November to December, with additional import expectations in November. The apparent demand is good, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the potential weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. The speculative demand may push up the price when it falls [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10]. 4. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Index (November 4, 2025)**: The commodity index is 2229.67, a 0.92% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2521.83, a 0.98% decrease; the industrial product index is 2213.57, a 1.07% decrease [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index (November 4, 2025)**: The index value is 407.95, with a daily decrease of 3.96%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.84%, a monthly increase of 2.51%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.08% [52].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The expectation of supply contraction is increasing, and polysilicon is leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectation of supply contraction is increasing, with polysilicon leading the rise. In the long term, the expectation of supply contraction in silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **View**: With the arrival of the dry season, silicon prices are oscillating [3][6]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price has small fluctuations, with the domestic inventory increasing by 0.6% month - on - month to 447,700 tons. The domestic monthly production in October was 452,000 tons, up 7.5% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 70,233 tons, down 8.4% month - on - month and up 7.7% year - on - year. The single - month photovoltaic new installation in September was 9.66GW, down 53.76% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest will decrease due to the dry season, while the northwest supply is stable with the possibility of further resumption. The demand from polysilicon in the southwest may decline slightly, the organic silicon market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts have been decreasing, providing some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **View**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and polysilicon prices are running at a high level [3][7]. - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re -投料 is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton. The export in September decreased by 53% year - on - year, and the import decreased by 49.46% year - on - year. Some southwest bases are reducing raw material input, with an expected affected capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The production in October is expected to remain high, and the supply will contract in November. The demand in the fourth quarter may weaken. The current supply - demand situation still has pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Supply speculation is fermenting repeatedly, and lithium prices are oscillating widely [3][10]. - **Information Analysis**: On November 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.86% to 82,280 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 26,819 lots to 909,910 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong. The supply has been increasing, and there are small - scale supply - side disturbances. The apparent demand is good, and the social inventory is decreasing. Upstream enterprises can participate in hedging, and downstream enterprises should purchase as needed [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Group 4: Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On November 3, 2025, the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index was 2237.50 (+0.09%) [51]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, it was 424.76, with a daily increase of 0.78%, a 5 - day increase of 1.76%, a 1 - month increase of 6.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, the supply side is expected to cut production, and the price remains high. For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China are 9350 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China are 9650 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations [6]. - The latest domestic inventory in Baichuan is 445,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 262,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [6]. - As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production is 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production is 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3% [6]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [6]. - The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The dry season in the southwest is coming, and silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to gradually reduce production. Currently, the supply in the northwest is still increasing, and the domestic industrial silicon supply is still in a loose situation. The increase in polysilicon production in October supports the demand for industrial silicon, but the demand will decline in November. The demand for silicone remains weak and stable, and the demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. In November, industrial silicon is still in a pattern of inventory accumulation, but the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts supports the market, but industrial silicon still faces inventory accumulation. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and the polysilicon price remains high [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,240 lots, a decrease of 180 lots from the previous value [7]. - In September, China's polysilicon export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the total export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [7]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - Relevant policies aim to regulate low - price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity. The National Standards Committee plans to revise the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product for polysilicon [7]. - Affected by recent meetings and electricity prices in the wet/dry seasons, some polysilicon bases in the southwest region have started to gradually reduce raw material input, with an expected full shutdown from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [8]. - **Main Logic**: From August to September, the polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and it is expected to remain high in October. With the arrival of the dry season in November, the supply will shrink. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high, but it overdrafted the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Overall, the current supply - demand situation of polysilicon is under pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand situation is poor. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On October 27, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 2.99% to 81,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 50,618 lots to 862,528 lots [9]. - On October 27, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 74,300 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) is 906 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. On the same day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 960 lots to 27,739 lots [9]. - On October 27, Dazhong Mining announced that the "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" has passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. The annual mining scale is 2.6 million tons/year, and the spodumene mining scale ranks among the top in the industry. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to short - term demand and warehouse receipt changes. The weekly and monthly production of SMM continues to increase slightly, and imported ores will be supplemented in November, so the production is expected to remain high. The market has priced in the fact that Ningde Jianxiawo is unlikely to resume production this year, but relevant news should still be closely monitored. In terms of demand, the apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong, with an expected month - on - month increase. December is crucial. The social inventory continues to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons in November. The current change in the spot basis is not obvious, but there may be an expectation of strengthening in the future. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10].

Group 1 - A-share market experienced a broad increase, with rare earth and lithography machine sectors leading the gains, as evidenced by the 2.82% rise in the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) and a 4.30% increase in Northern Rare Earth [1] - The U.S. September CPI data came in below expectations, alongside tightening dollar liquidity and renewed regional banking risks, which strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - China's decision to postpone the implementation of rare earth export restrictions by one year signals a temporary easing, which is expected to stabilize global key mineral supply chain expectations and support the upward movement of industrial metal prices [1] Group 2 - Precious metals saw significant volatility this week, with spot gold experiencing its largest single-day drop in nearly a decade, primarily due to profit-taking and a temporary strengthening of the dollar [2] - Industrial metals are expected to maintain strong prices due to improved macro sentiment, frequent supply disruptions, and seasonal demand recovery [2] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, as indicated by the surge in hexafluorophosphate lithium prices and new highs in lithium carbonate futures, reflecting a continued recovery in the lithium battery industry [2] - Rare earth materials remain a core investment theme due to their long-term scarcity and strategic value in international competition, with leading companies accelerating integration and optimizing supply chains during the policy buffer period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the copper sector, emphasizing mid-term investment value due to favorable conditions in both mining and smelting [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the tight supply situation in copper mining is expected to persist, supporting mid-term price increases. Additionally, there is potential for improvement in smelting fees, which presents further investment opportunities [14][15]. - The copper supply from major mines has been revised downwards, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 475,000 tons, indicating a potential decline in supply for 2025 compared to 2024 [15]. - The report also notes that the demand for copper is likely to increase due to the global shift towards low-carbon energy and the expansion of AI data centers, which will further support copper prices [15]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - **Supply Side**: The report indicates that the supply of copper concentrate is tight, with major mining companies lowering their production forecasts for 2025. This is expected to keep supply levels flat or slightly declining compared to 2024, which had a 4.5% growth rate [15]. - **Smelting Sector**: The report suggests that the growth rate of copper smelting capacity may not keep pace with the supply growth of copper mines, leading to an expected increase in smelting fees. This presents potential for performance improvement in smelting companies [14][15]. Steel Sector - **Profitability**: The report notes that steel profitability is under pressure due to rising costs, with the average cost of long-process rebar increasing slightly by 0.32% week-on-week [32]. - **Price Trends**: The overall steel price index has shown a slight increase of 0.15%, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a 0.40% rise, while medium-thick plates saw a minor decline [38][39]. - **Inventory Levels**: Both social and steel mill inventories have decreased, indicating a tightening market which could support price stability [27][28]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Supply**: The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, with September 2025 production reaching 69,940 tons, up 64.18% from the previous year [43]. - **Demand for New Energy Vehicles**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have shown substantial growth, with September 2025 figures indicating a 22.14% increase in production and a 22.77% increase in sales compared to the previous year [47]. Industrial Metals - **Market Sentiment**: The report notes that recent US-China talks have improved market sentiment, leading to an overall increase in metal prices [63]. - **Copper Production**: Global refined copper production has increased, but the growth rate is not keeping up with demand, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance [63].