Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing historical price highs due to dovish Federal Reserve stance and geopolitical uncertainties [11][12] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and ongoing demand [13][14] - New energy metals, especially cobalt, are witnessing price increases following policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [19][20] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are facing price stagnation due to stable demand and increased inventory [22] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market anticipates a rise in Federal Reserve rate cuts, contributing to gold and silver prices reaching historical highs [11] - August PCE data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, supporting the Fed's confidence in further rate cuts [11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao and WanGuo in H-shares [12] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply reductions from the Grasberg mine and ongoing demand [14][18] - Current copper inventory stands at 948,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 29,610 tons [14] - Recommended stocks include Jiangxi Copper in H-shares and Tongling Nonferrous in A-shares [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium supply is expected to see slight increases, while cobalt prices are rising due to supply tightness following policy changes in Congo [19][20] - Cobalt prices have increased by 20.3% for sulfate and 21.3% for electrolytic cobalt [19] - Key stocks to monitor include Zhongmin and Zangge for lithium, and Huayou and Tianyuan for cobalt [21] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with limited supply changes and steady demand from major manufacturers [22] - The report notes a decline in prices for antimony and tungsten, with a focus on inventory management [22] - Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth for rare earths [25] Market Review - The non-ferrous index increased by 6.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [25] - Notable stock performances include TianNai Technology with a 14.4% increase and Jingyi Co. with a 9.7% decrease [29] - The copper and aluminum sectors are noted for their low valuations, suggesting potential for growth [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillating" rating for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, indicating that the expected price fluctuations for these commodities are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the future 2 - 12 weeks [6][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. It is necessary to wait for the policy clarity at the end of September. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - For industrial silicon, the loosening of coal prices has led to a decline in its price. For polysilicon, the repeated policy expectations have caused its price to continue high - volatility. For lithium carbonate, as the long holiday and the point of long - short game approach, it is necessary to avoid price fluctuation risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 29, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory increased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of August 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 386,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. In August, the export volume of industrial silicon increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption progress of large northwest factories has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. The supply has been rising from August to September, but the resumption process has slowed down recently. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory has remained stable [6] - **Outlook**: Before the holiday, the loosening of coal prices led to a decline in silicon prices. Recently, the resumption rhythm of large factories has slowed down, and the industrial silicon price shows short - term oscillation. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the impact of the resumption rhythm of large northwest factories on supply [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: As of a certain time, the N - type polysilicon re - feeding material transaction price was in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In August, the export and import volumes of polysilicon decreased. From January to August 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased year - on - year. Relevant policies on anti - involution and energy consumption standards were put forward [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons in August and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken in the future. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation, and the price fluctuation has increased [8][9] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [7] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On September 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous day, and the total position increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. A new lithium project was put into production [9][10] - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. There is a supply - demand gap, but the amplitude is less than expected. The supply has new investments, and there is uncertainty in supply. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the amplitude is less than expected. The warehouse receipts are gradually recovering, suppressing the price. It is recommended to close positions and wait and see [10] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the long - term surplus and supply recovery expectations suppress the price. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10] 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under this section, but no specific content is provided [12][18][29] 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all decreased, with decreases of 0.13%, 0.08%, and 0.50% respectively. The new energy commodity index decreased by 0.53% on that day, 0.22% in the past 5 days, 0.96% in the past month, and 3.50% since the beginning of the year [52][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend sectors, making the allocation in non-ferrous and steel sectors timely. The operating performance of most sub-sectors in the non-ferrous and steel industry has shown significant improvement in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [15][16] - Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton, with expectations for profitability and dividend rates to gradually increase for copper mining companies. For instance, Zangge Mining reported a mid-term dividend of 1.569 billion yuan, with a dividend rate significantly raised to 87% [15][16] - Aluminum prices have risen, leading to upward revisions in profitability and dividend expectations. The aluminum price has reached 21,000 yuan per ton, and companies like Tianshan Aluminum have increased their dividend rates to 50% [16] - The rare earth sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of price increases due to the resumption of bidding by downstream magnetic material manufacturers, with companies like Jinkeli Yongci reporting a mid-term dividend rate of 81% [16] - Steel companies are expected to enhance their dividend capabilities as profitability improves and capital expenditures decline. For example, Huazhong Steel has seen an increase in shareholding by Xintai Life Insurance, which plans to continue increasing its stake [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry - The report highlights the positive outlook for low-risk, high-dividend sub-sectors within the non-ferrous and steel industry, driven by improving operating performance and rising commodity prices [15][16] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, pushing prices above $10,000 per ton, which is expected to enhance profitability and dividends for mining companies [15][16] - The aluminum sector is benefiting from a favorable supply-demand balance, with prices rising and companies increasing their dividend rates [16] - The rare earth market is poised for growth as bidding resumes in downstream sectors, leading to improved profitability and dividend stability [16] - Steel companies are likely to see enhanced profitability and dividend capabilities due to reduced capital expenditures and improved market conditions [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metal industry [8] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment, leading to a resurgence in domestic copper prices above 80,000 [5] - The gold market is experiencing a surge due to increased safe-haven buying driven by rising interest rate cut expectations, with prices continuing to rise [4] - The industrial metals sector is supported by a tight supply situation, particularly for copper, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to strong demand from the new energy sector [5][18] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts has intensified safe-haven buying, resulting in continued increases in gold prices. The U.S. non-farm payroll report indicates a weakening labor market, raising concerns about further deterioration [4][13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a surprising decline of 0.1% month-on-month, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% [4][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao, WanGuo Gold Group, and China National Gold International in H-shares [4][13] Industrial Metals - The copper market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic copper prices rising above 80,000. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost investment and consumption, further supporting copper prices [5][14] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to a combination of supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector [5][18] - Key stocks to focus on include Jiangxi Copper H, Tongling Nonferrous, and Huayou Cobalt in A-shares, and Minmetals and China Nonferrous in H-shares [5][18] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have declined slightly, but downstream demand remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19] - The supply side is stable, with production expected to increase slightly, while demand is showing signs of growth as the traditional peak season approaches [19] - Key stocks to consider include Zhongjin Lingnan and Canggu Lithium [19] Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to remain strong due to tight supply and low social inventory, with prices potentially reaching 300,000 per ton [20][24] - Molybdenum prices are experiencing slight adjustments due to increased profit-taking, but high-quality supply remains tight [23][24] - Key stocks to watch include Jiajin International and Xiamen Tungsten in tungsten, and Jinchuan Group and Guocheng Mining in molybdenum [20][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [5] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating weakly [10] Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the repeated supply expectations and capital games have magnified price fluctuations, leading to wide - range fluctuations in new energy metal prices. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, with a possible rise in the price center; the lithium ore production capacity is still rising, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - Industrial silicon: Supply is relatively loose, and silicon prices will oscillate [2][5] - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are volatile, increasing the price fluctuations of polysilicon [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: After the mine restart meeting, the trading of lithium carbonate has returned to fundamentals [2][8] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 10, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated; the latest domestic inventory increased by 2.3% month - on - month; as of August 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon increased by 14.0% month - on - month and decreased by 18.7% year - on - year; in July, industrial silicon exports increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year; in July, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 23.1% month - on - month and 47.6% year - on - year [5] - **Main Logic**: The market is highly concerned about the supply - side reform of the silicon industry chain. Currently, the supply of industrial silicon is rising, putting pressure on prices. The supply pressure mainly comes from the northwest and southwest regions. The demand side has slightly improved month - on - month. There is a cumulative pressure on social inventory and futures warrants [5] - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" expectations repeatedly affect silicon prices. The supply is relatively loose, limiting the upside of silicon prices, and the prices will oscillate [5] Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re -投料 is between 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 49,000 yuan/ton, a 2.3% week - on - week increase; the number of polysilicon warrants on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased; in July, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.11% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 81% year - on - year [5][6] - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, increasing price fluctuations. The supply has increased, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The current supply - demand situation is still under pressure [8] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. If the policy expectations fade, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On September 10, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.99% to 70,720 yuan; the total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 10,197 lots; the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,150 yuan to 73,450 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 800 US dollars/ton [8][9] - **Main Logic**: The market has returned to fundamental trading. The supply of lithium carbonate may exceed expectations, the demand is expected to increase month - on - month in September, the social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the warrants are gradually recovering. The current supply - demand gap is not obvious [10] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply and supply recovery expectations suppress prices. The prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10] II. Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific monitoring content is provided [11][15][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The main driver for the recent rise in gold prices is the increased certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside rising risks [8][13] - The steel industry is expected to see enhanced mid-term price support due to interest rate cut expectations and policy initiatives [17] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - Companies with self-owned gold mines are likely to see greater profit elasticity during rising gold prices, ensuring sustained performance growth. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zhuhai Group (600961, Buy) [3] - The recent gold price increase is attributed to the shift in dominant investors to U.S. domestic institutions, with a focus on economic recession risks, stock market volatility, and credit risks associated with the dollar [8][14][15] Steel Sector - Demand for steel is under pressure during the off-season, with a need to validate expectations for the peak season [17] - Overall inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have risen, indicating a need for structural improvement in demand [23] - Short-term steel prices are under downward pressure, but policy and demand improvements are expected to support a mid-term recovery [38] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply dynamics [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with July 2025 production and sales showing year-on-year growth of 22.53% and 19.30%, respectively [46] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel are showing divergence, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 4.21% week-on-week [51]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. July PCE data met market expectations, showing moderate inflation without signs of runaway prices, which bolstered confidence in the Fed's potential rate cuts in September. This has led to a rise in gold and silver prices [3][12]. - The report emphasizes that geopolitical uncertainties and global tariff policies continue to support the long-term investment value of gold, despite short-term fluctuations [3][12]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that the combination of traditional consumption peaks and Fed rate cut expectations is likely to push copper prices higher, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector [4][13][17]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, with specific stocks recommended for investment including Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao and China Gold International in H-shares [3][12]. - Silver prices are also projected to increase, with recommended stocks including Shengda Resources and Hunan Silver [3][12]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to increased investment and consumption following Fed rate cuts [4][13]. - Aluminum prices are anticipated to remain stable due to supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector, with recommended stocks including Yunnan Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][17]. Other Metals - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to strong demand from steel mills, while tungsten prices are also projected to increase due to tight supply and low social inventory [4][19][22]. - The report suggests monitoring stocks such as Jiajin International and Xiamen Tungsten for tungsten investments, and Jinmoly and Guocheng for molybdenum [4][19][22]. Market Review - The report notes a 2.12% increase in the non-ferrous index, with West Gold and Tiantong shares showing significant gains of 49.7% and 27.37% respectively [5][28]. - The report also highlights that the copper and aluminum sectors are currently undervalued, suggesting potential for future growth [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of supply disruptions in the new energy metals market is fluctuating, leading to wide - ranging price oscillations. In the short and medium term, rising costs support prices, while supply expectation fluctuations and capital games amplify price volatility. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, potentially raising the price level, while the increasing supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, supply is continuously increasing, capping the upside of silicon prices. For polysilicon, the expectation of policy implementation is rising, causing prices to rebound. For lithium carbonate, the unexpected surge in supply is pressuring prices [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply is continuously rising, restricting the upside of silicon prices. The short - term price will continue to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale restarts occur, prices may be suppressed [6][7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 1st, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month but decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. The export volume in July increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in July decreased by 23.1% month - on - month and 47.6% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure mainly comes from the northwest. In September, the output in the southwest is expected to be stable, and the incremental supply will mainly come from large northwest plants. Demand shows some improvement, but the inventory and warehouse receipts are expected to accumulate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of policy implementation is rising, leading to a rebound in polysilicon prices. The anti - cut - throat competition policy significantly boosts prices, but attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, prices may reverse [7][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re -投料 is stable. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remains unchanged. In July, the export volume decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, while the import volume increased by 5.11% month - on - month. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment is rising, but the supply and demand situation still faces pressure. The demand may weaken in the future, and price volatility has increased [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The unexpected surge in supply is pressuring lithium prices. In the short term, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [10][11]. - **Information Analysis**: On September 1st, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.1%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The initial shock of the mine shutdown has passed, and the market is back to the stage of speculating on mine shutdowns. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to rise in September. The shortage is not obvious, and the market is focused on anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential disruptions [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The content only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under market monitoring, without specific information. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 1st, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2212.10, - 0.02%), the Commodity 20 Index (2466.23, + 0.08%), and the Industrial Products Index (2227.31, - 0.73%). - The new energy commodity index on September 1st, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.94%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 6.66%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.57% [53][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the precious metals sector is expected to perform strongly due to rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by political pressures and potential changes in monetary policy [3][12]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see price increases supported by traditional consumption peaks and ongoing supply constraints, particularly for copper [14][17]. - The lithium market is experiencing short-term disruptions but has strong long-term fundamentals, making it a strategic investment opportunity [18]. - Tungsten prices have surged significantly, while rare earth elements have stabilized after a decline, indicating a mixed outlook for these sectors [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of political events, such as President Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a crisis in the dollar credit system and boost demand for precious metals [3][12]. - Key stocks to watch include A-shares like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining, and H-shares like WanGuo and LingBao [3]. 2. Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices are supported by a tight supply situation, with a projected increase in demand due to seasonal consumption patterns [14][17]. - Key stocks recommended include Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous [17]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to resilient demand, despite short-term supply disruptions [18]. - Recommended stocks include Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium [18]. 4. Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have increased by 16.7% recently, while rare earth prices have stabilized after a decline [19]. - Key stocks to monitor include China Rare Earth and North Rare Earth [19]. 5. Market Review - The report indicates that the non-ferrous index rose by 7.2%, outperforming the broader market, with notable gains in stocks like Jinli Permanent Magnet and China Rare Earth [5][25]. - The report also highlights that the copper and aluminum sectors are currently undervalued [33]. 6. Major Events - The report mentions significant macroeconomic events, including Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member, which could influence market dynamics [41]. - It also notes that China's copper production has increased by 9.4% year-on-year for the first seven months of the year [46].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [8][10] Core Views of the Report - The new energy metals market is experiencing wide - amplitude oscillations at high levels due to repeated supply disruptions and capital games. In the short - term, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate may enter a phase of tightness, while silicon faces the risk of looser supply - demand, and cost increases support the prices of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - As of August 25, the spot prices of oxygen - fed 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 9350 yuan/ton and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, with price fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon was 437,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. Among them, the market inventory was 174,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the factory inventory was 262,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [5]. - As of July 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 338,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [5]. - In July, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,006 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,711 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - In June, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [5]. Main Logic - The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in silicon plants has accelerated significantly under the combined effect of the wet - season advantage and the rebound of silicon prices. At the end of the month, some large enterprises in Xinjiang resumed production after maintenance, bringing additional increments. In August, the release of southwest production capacity still has a large space, and the overall supply pressure may continue to rise [5]. - The demand has shown some signs of improvement. The resumption of production in polysilicon enterprises has driven the demand for industrial silicon to gradually recover. The organic silicon industry maintains the rhythm of rigid - demand procurement, and some enterprises still have a certain willingness to support prices. The aluminum alloy sector has stable production, with limited incremental support for demand [5]. - With the continuous recovery of supply - side production, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate, and the risk of market pressure needs attention [5]. Outlook - In the short - term, the price of industrial silicon will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale enterprises resume production intensively, the price may be further suppressed [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.05% [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,730 lots, an increase of 190 lots compared with the previous value [6]. - In July, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 2,135.42 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.14%. From January to July 2025, the total export volume was 13,525.39 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.15%. In July, the total import volume of polysilicon was about 1,169.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11%. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 12,379.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.08% [6]. - From January to July 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.25GW, a year - on - year increase of 81%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [6]. Main Logic - Macroscopically, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated. Recently, six departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, strengthening policy expectations. However, the coal price has dropped recently, resulting in wide - amplitude oscillations in the polysilicon price [6][7]. - From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest region has increased. The polysilicon production capacity in Sichuan has rebounded, and it is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to rise in August on the basis of over 100,000 tons currently. In the medium - to - long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict the supply of polysilicon [8]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but it also over - drafted the installation demand in the second half of the year. The single - month domestic photovoltaic installation in June was only 14GW, and the installation volume in July further decreased. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports, the subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken [8]. - Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand of polysilicon, and the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated, increasing the price volatility of polysilicon [8]. Outlook - The anti - cut - throat competition policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.53% to 79,380 yuan compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 804 lots to 788,716 lots [8]. - On August 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 82,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 80,200 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,100 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On the same day, the warehouse receipts increased by 640 tons to 25,630 tons [9]. Main Logic - The first - wave emotional impact caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiakeng Mine has ended. The subsequent trading mainly focuses on two points: the manifestation of actual supply - demand shortages and the speculation of possible shutdowns of certain salt lakes and mica mines [9]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand gap is gradually emerging. The weekly production of SMM has declined month - on - month, especially the production corresponding to mica has declined significantly, but there is some supplement from spodumene. The import of lithium carbonate in China decreased significantly in July, but it will recover in the fourth quarter according to shipping. Currently, the demand has not significantly exceeded expectations, the production schedule in August is relatively stable, and the demand in September, the peak season, is worth looking forward to, with attention focused on the production schedule. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts in August are gradually recovering [9]. - Overall, there is a gradually emerging supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but it should be noted that the current high price may stimulate the accelerated release of supply. The trading enthusiasm of capital has decreased, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme price fluctuations caused by position closing, and opportunities for buying near - month contracts on dips or calendar spreads should be considered [9]. Outlook - The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep the price oscillating with a bullish bias [10].