大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.0 | 0.9 | 0.06% | 100.0 | -46.24% | 1,956.0 | -1.36% | | EC2602 | 1,871.8 | 152.0 | 8.84% | 52,704.0 | 66.66% | 36,510.0 | 15.88% | | EC2604 | 1,166.8 | 38.0 | 3.37% | 11,708.0 | 177.11% | 20,471.0 | 8.67% | | EC26 ...

"凯拓"轮为全球第一艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC，并配置脱硫洗涤塔和轴带发电机，是公司践行"绿色航 运"理念的开拓性试验和标志性举措，也是全球航运业特别是油轮运输业实现"碳中和"长远目标的重要 实践。此艘VLCC交付后，公司油轮船队节能降碳指标将进一步提升，预计市场竞争力、服务客户的能 力均将进一步巩固，公司持续盈利进一步增强。 格隆汇12月22日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)公布，2025年12月22日，公司在大连船舶重工集团有限公司 （称"大连造船"）订造的全球首艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC油轮"凯拓"轮在大连交付。 截至本公告发布之日，公司拥有油轮在手订单15艘，其中自有VLCC订单5艘、长期租入VLCC订单3 艘，自有Aframax订单7艘，将于2026年至2028年陆续交付。 ...

"凯拓"轮为全球第一艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC，并配置脱硫洗涤塔和轴带发电机，是公司践行"绿色航 运"理念的开拓性试验和标志性举措，也是全球航运业特别是油轮运输业实现"碳中和"长远目标的重要 实践。此艘VLCC交付后，公司油轮船队节能降碳指标将进一步提升，预计市场竞争力、服务客户的能 力均将进一步巩固，公司持续盈利进一步增强。 格隆汇12月22日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)公布，2025年12月22日，公司在大连船舶重工集团有限公司 （称"大连造船"）订造的全球首艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC油轮"凯拓"轮在大连交付。 截至本公告发布之日，公司拥有油轮在手订单15艘，其中自有VLCC订单5艘、长期租入VLCC订单3 艘，自有Aframax订单7艘，将于2026年至2028年陆续交付。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，太平洋航运(02343)近期的沽压，相较其基本面而言似乎反应 过度;重申"增持"评级，目标价由3.2港元下调至2.7港元，已反映TCE(按期租合约对等基准收入)持平及 船队持续增长的前景。 该行认为，股价近期走弱基于多个因素，包括公司已完成回购计划、市场预期行业供应持续超越需求导 致明年前景疲弱、Caravel减慢收集股份步伐而缺乏可见的短期催化剂，以及年底获利回吐。不过，这 些因素并未有反映出公司的竞争地位或资产负债表出现恶化。 该行表示，虽然轻便型散货船需求增长正在放缓，但预计明年仍能保持2%同比正增长，将支持运力使 用率。另外，船队老化问题日益构成限制，目前有14%的轻便型船(Handysize)及12%的超灵便型船 (Supramax)船龄超过20年。一旦市场进一步转弱，供应端的反应将更具不对称性。该行认为，调整估值 及目标价后，风险回报比率已更为有利。 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：周初仍有上攻动力 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：降息预期稍有升温，但潜在利空尚存 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力体现 粕类持续回落 6 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 预计短期维持底部震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 8 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | 生猪：供应压力体现 现货逐步回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面偏弱震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 11 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 13 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：降息阻碍减少 金稳银强延续 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：交投热情过度 ...

海南封关首日，最大的输家可能不是李嘉诚，而是霍氏家族。 2025年12月18日，海南自贸港全岛封关正式启动，标志着中国对外开放进入新阶段。 李嘉诚在海南封关前已开始有序出售内地和香港资产。 2025年，他以50亿港元出售居住62年的深水湾道老宅，较市场估价低15亿港元，同时在大湾区以"骨 折价"抛售400套房源，惠州某项目单价跌破9000元/㎡。 过去十年，李嘉诚从内地和香港累计套现超2500亿港元，并将长实集团注册地迁至开曼群岛，中国资产占比从75%降至15%。 他迅速转向东南亚市场，投资越南智慧港口和印尼氢能项目，总额达300亿美元。 这种布局使他在海南封关后仍能通过新市场平衡风险。 李嘉诚的商业版图以香港零售业和港口业务为核心，而海南封关对这两项业务造成直接冲击。 2024年香港零售业总销货价值下降7.3%，而海南离岛免税销 售额突破1000亿元。 航运方面，马士基等国际航运巨头将业务转向海南洋浦港，其中东航线运输成本比香港低12%。 随着"零关税"商品范围扩大至约6600个税目，享惠主体覆盖全岛多数企事业单位，海南与国际市场的联系更加紧密。 这一政策对香港传统优势形成挑战，但李嘉诚通过提前布局东南亚资 ...

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port is undergoing significant institutional changes, with a focus on implementing a "zero tariff" policy that has expanded from 21% to 74% of goods, covering approximately 6,600 tax items, posing a challenge to Singapore's regional hub status [1][3]. Policy Changes - Hainan officially launched its full island closure operation on December 18, marking a strategic shift initiated five years ago with the release of the Hainan Free Trade Port Construction Overall Plan in June 2020 [3]. - The province has expanded its duty-free processing policy from the Yangpu Free Trade Port Area to the entire region, with 129 pilot enterprises approved by October 2025 [3]. - Hainan has introduced a negative list for cross-border data flow management, facilitating unique digital economy cooperation models such as "game exports" [3]. Economic Performance - Hainan's annual average growth rate for goods trade has reached 31.3%, significantly surpassing the national average, while actual foreign investment has grown at an annual rate of 14.6%, also above the national average [5]. - The geographical advantage of Hainan as the nearest maritime exit for Southwest and Northwest China allows for an average time savings of about 10 days compared to routes from Eastern China [6]. Competitive Landscape - Hainan is positioned as the shortest port route from China to Southeast Asia, as well as to Africa, Europe, and Oceania, directly challenging Singapore's traditional hub status [7]. - The competition has expanded into various sectors, including shipping, where the "China Yangpu Port" has registered 73 international vessels with a total capacity of 7.1631 million deadweight tons [8]. Financial Sector Developments - Hainan's multi-functional free trade account policy is being optimized, with innovative measures such as "one line open, two lines managed" and limited cross-border management for same-name accounts [9]. - The annual duty-free shopping limit for Hainan has been raised to 100,000 yuan per person, with total duty-free shopping exceeding 200 billion yuan by the end of August 2025, enhancing its competitiveness in attracting regional consumption [9]. Future Outlook - Post-closure, Hainan is expected to save approximately 20% in tax costs for imported equipment, with customs facilitating the clearance of "zero tariff" and bonded goods, significantly improving efficiency [10]. - Hainan's policies are expected to strengthen its appeal for high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, while Singapore is attempting to solidify its economic influence in Southeast Asia through deeper cooperation with Japan [11]. - Hainan's strategy includes establishing commercial cooperation platforms targeting Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, contrasting with Singapore's "choosing sides" approach [11].

今年以来该股累计进行130次回购，合计回购5.00亿股，累计回购金额66.68亿港元。（数据宝） 中远海控回购明细 证券时报·数据宝统计，中远海控在港交所公告显示，12月19日以每股13.470港元至13.730港元的价格回 购396.55万股，回购金额达5366.89万港元。该股当日收盘价13.530港元，下跌1.17%，全天成交额3.23 亿港元。 自10月31日以来公司已连续36日进行回购，合计回购1.05亿股，累计回购金额14.37亿港元。 其间该股 累计上涨1.12%。 | 2025.11.11 | 300.00 | 14.390 | 14.110 | 4254.13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.11.10 | 300.00 | 14.350 | 14.100 | 4256.26 | | 2025.11.07 | 140.80 | 14.230 | 13.800 | 1985.89 | | 2025.11.06 | 153.00 | 13.840 | 13.570 | 2098.69 | | 2025.11.05 | 125.00 | 13.59 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, a table shows the possibility of a bullish or bearish trend for various commodities [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The US November CPI data came in lower than expected, with the core CPI rising at the slowest pace since early 2021. This, along with the Fed's possible rate - cut in January, has influenced market sentiment. In China, the start of Hainan's full - island customs closure and policies in the PV industry are significant events [1][6][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: In the A - share market, a long - term bullish trend is expected due to policy support, capital inflow, and industrial development. Global capital flow and risk appetite may increase with the Fed's December rate cut. In the bond market, the loose monetary policy supports short - term treasury bond prices [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News on the Day) - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 were 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in January rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure, with a series of policies implemented. In the PV industry, relevant departments aim to curb cut - throat competition and promote healthy development [7]. 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The report presents the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market products on December 17 and 18, 2025, including the S&P 500, ICE Brent crude oil, and others [9]. 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Commodities) - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: With positive factors such as policy improvement, capital expansion, and industrial support, the A - share market's long - term bullish trend is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's rate cut in December may further boost market sentiment [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a loose money supply. The slow growth of the US core CPI and the possible Fed rate cut influenced the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports reached a two - and - a - half - year high in October. There are uncertainties regarding US sanctions on Russia's energy industry, and the overall downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventories declined, but imports are expected to increase. Short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [13]. - **Rubber**: Overseas supply is increasing, while domestic supply is entering the off - season. Demand for all - steel tires is stable, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices are consolidating. Downstream demand has reached a high level, and short - term attention should be paid to cost trends and supply - demand digestion [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory is decreasing faster, while soda ash needs more time. The real - estate industry's recovery in 2026 is a key factor [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile. The downward CPI trend provides room for rate cuts, and weak employment data supports further Fed rate cuts. The long - term upward trend remains [17]. - **Copper**: The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference is not significant, and market sentiment should be monitored [19]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and demand is acceptable. As the holidays approach, the impact of weakening demand on prices should be watched [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Terminal demand is strong, but there is a risk of a seasonal decline. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, and the price may face a correction if the inventory reduction slows down [21][22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures prices are oscillating. After a significant decline, the market is expected to stabilize with support from downstream restocking and winter demand [23]. - **Steel**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may rebound, but the medium - term outlook is weak [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is oscillating. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and they will maintain on - demand procurement. Short - term prices are expected to be slightly stronger [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean sowing progress is behind schedule, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic market is supported by high - cost imports, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are supported by export tax cuts, but inventory pressure remains. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to range - bound. Domestic supply is increasing seasonally, and the market is waiting for a recovery in sentiment [29]. - **Cotton**: Although there is a new cotton harvest, the sales progress is fast. The possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and improved Sino - US relations support prices, but there is resistance at high levels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC 02 contract declined. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, but the cargo - booking pressure will increase before the Spring Festival, and the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure [31].

证券时报·数据宝统计，中远海控在港交所公告显示，12月18日以每股13.520港元至13.760港元的价格回 购590.00万股，回购金额达8055.74万港元。该股当日收盘价13.690港元，上涨0.96%，全天成交额2.26 亿港元。 自10月31日以来公司已连续35日进行回购，合计回购1.01亿股，累计回购金额13.84亿港元。 其间该股 累计上涨2.32%。 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.12.18 | 590.00 | 13.760 | 13.520 | 8055.74 | | 2025.12.17 | 285.75 | 13.590 | 13.350 | 3861.30 | | 2025.12.16 | 300.00 | 13.650 | 13.340 | 4031.69 | | 2025.12.15 | 295.00 | 13.730 | 13.450 | 4001.61 | | 2025.12.12 | 446.10 | 13.820 | ...