| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 现值 | FUTCT | 张跃 | 其方 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 125 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 35 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 115 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3160 | 3158 | 2 | 130 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3206 | 3202 | 4 | 84 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3165 | 3134 | 31 | 125 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | -49 | 元/旺 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | 0 | -139 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to a certain extent. For both螺纹and热卷, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - line trading and avoid chasing up or selling down. For iron ore, although the short - term increase in iron water production is unexpected, it is likely a short - term phenomenon, and long positions can continue to be held for mid - line trading [2][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 螺纹 and 热卷 - **Supply and Demand**: This week,螺纹production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand for螺纹and five major steel products rebounded. However, as the market is in the off - season, the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush work and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of螺纹and热卷futures and spot prices showed different changes. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also fluctuated. For example, the螺纹steel main contract closing price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day and 0.25% from last week [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's螺纹production was 190.30 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 million tons (-0.39%). The five - major varieties' social inventory was 866.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16 million tons (0.13%) [2] - **Apparent Demand and Trading Volume**: The apparent demand for five major varieties was 826.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.30 million tons (3.68%). The 7 - day moving average of national construction steel trading volume was 22.68 million tons, down 2.35% from the previous day and 2.18% from last week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, and the apparent demand rebounded. In the off - season, iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in iron water production last week is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush work [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments of iron ore have declined, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The significant rebound in coking coal and coke prices supports iron ore prices [4] - **Price and Spread**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 0.97% from the previous day. The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 35.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from the previous day [5] - **Inventory and Shipment**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with Australian shipments at 1659.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 39.0 million tons (-2.30%), and Brazilian shipments at 647 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51.5 million tons (-7.37%). Port inventory increased to 16275.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 304.37 million tons (1.91%) [5] 3.3 Industry News - In early January, key steel enterprises produced 1997 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 199.7 million tons, a daily output increase of 21.6% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 248 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% [7] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 53 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 7 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 105 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 12 yuan/ton [7] - As of the week of January 15,螺纹production and factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased.螺纹production was 190.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 million tons (-0.39%);螺纹apparent demand was 190.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.38 million tons (8.79%) [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses how Fuzhou is enhancing sports consumption by utilizing idle land to create new sports facilities, such as basketball courts, to stimulate local economic activity [20][21] - The newly established basketball court in Fuzhou is designed to meet community needs, featuring a movable steel structure and accommodating various sports activities [21][22] - Fuzhou's sports bureau is actively promoting the development of urban sports complexes that integrate leisure, sports goods sales, dining, and shopping to cater to the diverse consumption needs of residents [22] Group 2 - The basketball court has a capacity to host around 200 visitors daily, with an expected annual footfall of approximately 60,000, indicating strong community engagement [21] - The initiative to repurpose idle land for sports facilities is part of a broader strategy to enhance sports consumption and promote a healthier lifestyle among residents [22] - Fuzhou is encouraging social capital investment in sports service complexes, which will help integrate sports with culture, commerce, and tourism, further boosting sports consumption [22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nanjing Steel (南钢股份), supplies bearing steel for humanoid robots, specifically for joints such as shoulders, elbows, wrists, fingers, hips, knees, and ankles [2] Group 1 - The company engages in the production of bearing steel used in humanoid robots [2] - The supplied products are specifically processed for various joints in humanoid robots [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to move in a low - level consolidation [3]. Group 3: Summary based on Report Content Steel Demand - In December 2025, the actual steel procurement volume of construction enterprises was 6.6% lower month - on - month at 667 million tons; the planned steel procurement volume in January was 578 million tons, with a possible significant month - on - month decline in actual procurement volume [2]. - In December 2025, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.337 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 1.2%; the cumulative retail sales from January to December were 12.809 million, a 17.6% increase [2]. Steel Supply - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.91%, a 1.76 - percentage - point increase; the average start - up rate was 72.97%, a 4.34 - percentage - point increase [2]. - Last week, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase; the profit rate was 37.66%, a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, a 20,700 - ton increase [2]. Steel Price Movement - Last week, the finished steel price first rose and then fell. The increase in raw materials during the week drove up the steel price, but due to weak fundamentals (slight increase in supply and low demand), the steel price oscillated and declined, performing weaker than raw materials. The macro - market was calm with limited impact on prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Silver has fallen from its high, indicating short - term price pressure. The bullish trend of silver is facing challenges, and the long - term trend has not ended, but the current adjustment is not over [7][8][9]. - The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. The iron element shows short - term high - level fluctuations and long - term pressure, the carbon element's supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the ferroalloy has different trends for different varieties [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the easing of domestic spot premium, the decline of overseas silver lease rate, the convergence of internal and external price differences, and the strengthening of exchange risk control, the pressure for bulls to push up prices has increased. It is judged that the silver trend - following long strategy is worth exiting. The current decline does not mean the end of the long - term trend, but the current point has a poor risk - return ratio, and the adjustment is not over [8][9]. - **Black Sector**: The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. For the iron element, there is long - term pressure and short - term high - level fluctuations; for the carbon element, the supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the price center will rise; for the ferroalloy, the manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the silicon - iron is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short - term [11][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - **Silver**: High - level correction. The price has declined, and various indicators show signs of weakening in the short - term [16][20]. - **Copper**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen, but the inventory situation is a supporting factor [16][23]. - **Zinc**: High - level decline. The price and trading volume have decreased [16][26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen slightly, and the inventory situation affects the price [16][29]. - **Tin**: High - level loosening. The price has declined, and the market shows signs of weakness [16][33]. - **Aluminium**: Market sentiment has cooled. The price and trading volume have changed, and the overall market is weak [16][36]. - **Alumina**: The supply surplus remains unchanged [16][36]. - **Cast Aluminium Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminium [16][36]. - **Platinum**: There is selling pressure due to the outflow of ETF holdings [16][39]. - **Palladium**: Generally follows platinum, slightly stronger [16][39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, with wide - range fluctuations [16][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are a drag, and the market is mainly focused on the game of Indonesian policies [16][43]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Non - metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory has started to increase, and the demand for bargain - hunting purchases supports the price [16][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices [16][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Pessimistic sentiment is strong [16][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is high, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16][54]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Coke**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][67]. - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly [16][70]. - **Para - Xylene**: The market shows unilateral high - level fluctuations, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [16][74]. - **PTA**: High - level fluctuation market [16][74]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium - term [16][74]. - **Rubber**: Wide - range fluctuations [16][83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center moves up [16][87]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired [16][90]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter [16][93]. - **Caustic Soda**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][96]. - **Pulp**: Oscillatory operation [16][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [16][107]. - **Methanol**: Oscillatory operation [16][110]. - **Urea**: Short - term oscillatory operation [16][115]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation [16][120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [16][124]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [16][127]. - **Propylene**: The demand is stable, and the spot price slightly increases [16][128]. - **PVC**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Strong - level fluctuations, with support at the bottom [16][139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rises, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounds slightly [16][139]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Lightly try to go long on the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions on the 04 contract [16][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short at high prices [16][158]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation mainly [16][162]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to subside, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [16][166]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves in a unilateral range, and pay attention to monthly - difference opportunities [16][166]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillation, waiting for next week's USDA report [16][172]. - **Soybean**: Adjustment and oscillation [16][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [16][175]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation mainly [16][178]. - **Cotton**: Fluctuates with the overall market sentiment [16][183]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contract weakens [16][189]. - **Live Pig**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [16][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillatory operation [16][197].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report of the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore [1] Group 2: Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil Core Viewpoint - In the consumption off-season, supply and demand are both weak, winter storage is yet to come, macro confidence is strengthening, the stock market is breaking through strongly, and the sharp rise of coking coal and coke boosts confidence, so the upward space of futures prices is greater than the downward space [2] Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - line trading. For those with no positions, it is not recommended to chase the rise. Enter the market to buy on pullbacks [2] Data Summary - **Price**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,187 yuan/ton, up 2.44% from the previous day and 2.08% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3,332 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day and 1.90% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills is 188.22 tons, up 2.08% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 304.51 tons, up 3.74% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 850.78 tons, down 2.50% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 282.66 tons, down 3.92% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 288.64 tons, down 2.72% from last week [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 841.02 tons, up 0.89% from last week; the rebar apparent demand is 200.44 tons, down 1.11% from last week; the hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 310.77 tons, up 1.21% from last week [2] Group 3: Iron Ore Core Viewpoint - Although the market is in the consumption off - season, iron ore prices are supported by the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke, and the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10 - day moving average, with a mid - line level upward trend unfolding [4] Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - line trading [4] Data Summary - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 828 yuan/dry ton, up 3.37% from the previous day and 4.88% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 109.05 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.42% from the previous day and 4.18% from last week [5] - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1,698.5 tons, down 10.86% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 698.5 tons, down 14.46% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 15,970.89 tons, up 0.71% from last week; the port trade ore inventory is 10,833.52 tons, up 0.48% from last week; the total inventory of imported sinter powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1,261.72 tons, up 4.60% from last week [5] Group 4: Industry News - Key coking enterprises agreed to continue to actively limit and reduce production, reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal, optimize the coal inventory structure, communicate with steel mills to stabilize prices, and stop shipments if steel mills ask for price cuts again [7] - According to data, the national building material production is 445.32 tons, down 4.96 tons from last week; the social inventory is 343.99 tons, down 6.06 tons from last week; the apparent demand is 429.93 tons, down 37.54 tons from last week [7] - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises is 1,414 tons, down 11.7% from the previous ten - day period, up 14.3% from the beginning of the year, down 1.0% from the same ten - day period of last month, up 14.3% from the same ten - day period of last year, and up 14.4% from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7] - The planned rebar production in January is 731.22 tons, an increase of 25.98 tons or 3.68% from the actual production in December [8] - Mongolia has revoked the special mining licenses of 4 companies, which will not affect Mongolia's coal exports to China [8]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Henan Steel Group and Beijing University of Science and Technology has successfully conducted the first industrial trial of a 4000m³ blast furnace using biomass carbon injection, marking a significant step towards low-carbon fuel alternatives in steel production [1] Group 1: Industrial Trial Details - The trial was implemented at the Anyang base, achieving a coal ratio of 170 kg/tHM and a stable daily production exceeding 10,500 tons [1] - The biomass carbon injection process was found to be safe and controllable during the trial [1] Group 2: Characteristics of Biomass Carbon - Biomass carbon is identified as a renewable low-carbon solid fuel with high reactivity, excellent combustion performance, and low carbon emission intensity [1] - It can partially replace injected coal while ensuring the stability of the blast furnace operation and the quality of molten iron, thus reducing fossil energy consumption [1] Group 3: Systematic Verification and Data Support - The trial focused on the feasibility of biomass carbon in the blast furnace injection system, operational stability, and carbon reduction potential [1] - A comprehensive process chain was established, covering aspects from raw material management to continuous injection in the blast furnace [1] - Key parameters such as the grinding and injection system, combustion state in the tuyeres, and overall furnace stability were monitored to assess the impact of biomass carbon injection on furnace operation and fuel structure optimization [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market fundamentals are mixed, with coal and coke futures prices rebounding from their lows, ore prices remaining strong, and the downward trend of the black sector slowing down, providing support for hot-rolled coils. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume is 1,274,085 lots, down 20,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 22,252 lots, down 6,347 lots. The HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 19 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 152 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 132,188 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou it is 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it is 3,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 37 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 802 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 158.6194 million tons, up 3.538 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 486,000 tons, down 13,700 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4383 million tons, up 14,300 tons. The inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.2661 million tons, up 86,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.96%, up 0.66 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.28%, up 0.32 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 2.9354 million tons, up 16,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 74.98%, up 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 805,200 tons, down 29,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.967 million tons, down 106,000 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hebei Province has drafted the Interim Measures for Reward for Reporting Illegally New - added Steel Production Capacity (Draft for Comment) and is soliciting public opinions. The Passenger Car Association preliminarily estimates that the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of national manufacturers in December 2025 is 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is expected to be 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with trading set to begin on January 16, 2026, marking a significant development in risk management tools for the steel and coal chemical industries [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Details - Coking coal options will be traded from 8:55 AM to 9:00 AM for collective bidding, followed by regular trading starting at 9:00 AM, with night trading commencing on the same day [1]. - The first contracts will be based on futures contracts JM2604 through JM2612, with a trading fee of 0.5 yuan per contract and a position limit of 8,000 contracts [1][2]. Group 2: Contract Design - The design of coking coal options aligns with existing options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, featuring both call and put options, with a minimum price fluctuation of 0.1 yuan per ton [2]. - The strike prices will cover a range of 1.5 times the price fluctuation limits of the underlying futures, with varying intervals based on price levels [2]. Group 3: Market Context and Demand - Since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013, the market has seen stable operations and increasing scale, with a daily average trading volume of 1.04 million contracts and a daily average open interest of 670,000 contracts as of November 2025 [3]. - The volatility in coking coal prices due to supply and demand factors has heightened the need for refined risk management tools among industry players [3]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The introduction of coking coal options is expected to enhance the risk management capabilities of enterprises in the coal and steel industries, allowing for more flexible hedging strategies [4]. - The options will enable companies to optimize their hedging strategies and improve capital efficiency, thereby supporting the high-quality development of the real economy [4].