Economic Overview - Domestic consumption remains weak, with overall commodity consumption showing poor performance and automotive sales cooling down[4] - Infrastructure investment continues to slow, with new housing transactions marginally declining[4] - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9% in November, down from 6.2% in the previous month, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Market Trends - Global risk appetite is cooling, with precious metals outperforming other asset classes; gold prices increased by 2.2%[5] - Emerging market stocks rose by 1.0%, while developed market stocks saw a slight decline of 0.3%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.2%[5] Sector Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see heavy truck sales reach 720,000 units in 2026, with overall wholesale sales projected at 1.09 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3%[39] - Steel production decreased to 8.06 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week, while total inventory fell by 33.5% to 13.32 million tons[41] Policy and Strategy - The central government emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to stabilize investment and consumption, with a focus on boosting domestic demand[30] - The upcoming economic policies are expected to support sectors like technology, energy, and consumption, with a particular focus on AI applications and green energy initiatives[19]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/15 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/12/085 2187 2035 2218 2216 2262 原点 2025/12/09 2183 2255 2032 2211 2216 2208 2025/12/10 2182 2253 2031 2215 短流程日耗 ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 思原H lle 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 张家港废钢到货 】 据点资讯 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 tial 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600元/吨 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 环比 -5 -3 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,90 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ◼ 宏观面：海外宏观： 12月如期降息，流动性释放。国内宏观：中央经济工作会议重提"反内卷" 、中央企业要自觉抵制"内卷 式"竞争，宏观环境整体偏暖。焦煤靠近成本线，受此提振快速反弹。明年1.1日后钢材出口新规执行，标准更严格买单出口必 然受限，短期抢出口增加，钢材价差近强远弱； ◼ 黑色产业链：需求逐步进入淡季，钢材库存偏高，同时季节性检修增多，铁水下滑，产业链维持供需双弱格局。热卷库存去化艰 难，压制钢材整体反弹高度。 国内宏观：中央经济工作会议重提反内卷，交投氛围转暖 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind富宝资讯： 、 国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind、Wind、富宝资讯、国泰君安期货研究所 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2022/01 2022/05 2022/09 2023/01 2023/05 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply has been continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.19%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.30%, and both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for iron ore continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Dynamics - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to November 2025 were 119.9231 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. In November, the total sales were 10.0593 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.5%. In November, there were 14 real - estate enterprises with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan. Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land & Investment ranked in the top three with sales of 240.866 billion yuan, 223.5 billion yuan, and 211.399 billion yuan respectively. From January to November, only China Jinmao achieved year - on - year growth in sales, with a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The sales of the other 16 real - estate enterprises decreased year - on - year, among which Gemdale Group had the largest decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 56.3% [7]. - According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, China's automobile production and sales continued to perform well, and both production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, setting a new historical high. In the first 11 months of this year, both automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 10%. From January to November this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 30%. In terms of exports, new - energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8]. - Starting from 16:00 on December 11, 2025, Handan City lifted the orange warning level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather as the atmospheric diffusion conditions gradually improved [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 3 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,200 yuan, up 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,297 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,960 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,070 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 777 yuan, down 6 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 783 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: The Australian freight was 11.34 yuan, down 0.42 yuan; the Brazilian freight was 24.01 yuan, down 0.82 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 106.54 yuan, up 0.59 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 106.40 yuan, up 0.90 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,069 yuan, a decline of 1.32%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest price was 3,061 yuan, the trading volume was 1,360,006 lots, a decrease of 159,246 lots, and the open interest was 1,602,075 lots, an increase of 87,857 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,238 yuan, a decline of 1.19%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest price was 3,236 yuan, the trading volume was 630,010 lots, a decrease of 57,172 lots, and the open interest was 1,148,348 lots, an increase of 42,440 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 757.0 yuan, a decline of 1.30%. The highest price was 771.0 yuan, the lowest price was 754.5 yuan, the trading volume was 324,951 lots, a decrease of 54,852 lots, and the open interest was 468,056 lots, a decrease of 1,378 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, etc.) [16][21][32] 5.后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk to a low level, supporting steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are weakly stable. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. It is expected that demand will continue to weaken seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Overall, rebar supply is continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [42]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand remains weak, with weak weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to increase, supporting demand, but there are concerns about external demand due to export policy disturbances. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large. The hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. At the end of the year, more steel mills are under maintenance, and the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week, and the decline rate has increased. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak, putting pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have increased month - on - month, and both are still at high levels within the year. Overseas iron ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is seasonally shrinking, iron ore supply remains high. In short, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but iron ore demand continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [43].

原标题：因地制宜发展新质生产力（总书记的关切·落地的回响） "发展新质生产力不是要忽视、放弃传统产业，要防止一哄而上、泡沫化，也不要搞一种模式。各地要 坚持从实际出发，先立后破、因地制宜、分类指导。" ——2024年3月5日，习近平总书记在参加十四届全国人大二次会议江苏代表团审议时强调 驶出青海察尔汗盐湖中央码头，"钾肥10号"采盐船来到碧绿的盐池中作业。 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司钾肥分公司生产车间里，矿浆经过多道工序分离出粒径0.3毫米、钾含量达 95%的钾肥。矿渣被"吃干榨净"，成为提锂的重要原料。 2024年6月，习近平总书记在青海考察时指出："因地制宜改造提升传统产业、发展战略性新兴产业，培 育新质生产力。" 广东深圳光明科学城内，合成生物研究重大科技基础设施的"预约单"排得满满当当。"使用这一'科研利 器'，不仅能节省大量投入，还能享受'定制化服务'，缩短研发周期，提升效率。"森瑞斯生物科技（深 圳）有限公司研发中心主任黎阳说。 "因地制宜"一词，深刻蕴含着发展新质生产力必须处理好的两组重要辩证关系。 一方面，"传统"与"新兴""未来"产业间不是对立，而是可以相互促进。统筹好培育新动能和更新旧动 能 ...

——2024年3月5日，习近平总书记在参加十四届全国人大二次会议江苏代表团审议时强调 驶出青海察尔汗盐湖中央码头，"钾肥10号"采盐船来到碧绿的盐池中作业。 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司钾肥分公司生产车间里，矿浆经过多道工序分离出粒径0.3毫米、钾含量达 95%的钾肥。矿渣被"吃干榨净"，成为提锂的重要原料。 2024年6月，习近平总书记在青海考察时指出："因地制宜改造提升传统产业、发展战略性新兴产业，培 育新质生产力。" 广东深圳光明科学城内，合成生物研究重大科技基础设施的"预约单"排得满满当当。"使用这一'科研利 器'，不仅能节省大量投入，还能享受'定制化服务'，缩短研发周期，提升效率。"森瑞斯生物科技（深 圳）有限公司研发中心主任黎阳说。 近年来，深圳形成了链条完整的合成生物产业生态，3年来国内新成立的合成生物企业约有40%落户深 圳。 2025年11月，习近平总书记在广东考察时强调，"着眼发展新质生产力，强化科技创新和产业创新深度 融合"。 "发展新质生产力不是要忽视、放弃传统产业，要防止一哄而上、泡沫化，也不要搞一种模式。各地要 坚持从实际出发，先立后破、因地制宜、分类指导。" 一方面，"传统"与"新兴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar are improving, while the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down. At the end of the week, the raw material side faced downward pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. Although steel prices are currently under pressure from raw materials and are expected to weaken in the short term, the overall decline is limited. Iron ore and coking coal are also under pressure and are expected to continue their weak performance [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar continued to improve, and the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down. The overall contradiction in finished products was limited. At the end of the week, the raw material side declined under pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. The weekly steel prices still showed a relatively strong overall trend [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production decreasing. The national rebar weekly output was 189.31 tons (down 8.14% week-on-week and 14.91% year-on-year). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 314.31 tons (down 1.47% week-on-week and 0.85% year-on-year). The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both decreased month-on-month [15][21][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased week-on-week. The rebar profit was +34 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 1 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the hot-rolled coil profit was -22 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 49 yuan/ton year-on-year) [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both showed a slight decline. The apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 4.81% week-on-week and 8.70% year-on-year), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 314.86 tons (down 1.67% week-on-week and 0.70% year-on-year) [35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased at an accelerated pace, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down, with a slight decrease in social inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory [39][44]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both commercial housing sales and the land market showed a month-on-month decline. In the automotive sector, production and sales in October continued to increase both month-on-month and year-on-year [48][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month. The iron ore price index was 107.04 (up 0.77% week-on-week and 0.71% year-on-year), the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2655.3 tons (down 4% week-on-week and up 4.7% year-on-year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2480.5 tons (down 8.11% week-on-week and 1.46% year-on-year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons week-on-week and 0.31 tons year-on-year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 318.45 tons (down 3.67% week-on-week and 1.52% year-on-year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory continued to increase, and the steel enterprises' iron ore inventory also increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15300.81 tons (up 0.60% week-on-week and 1.22% year-on-year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 0.47% week-on-week and down 4.13% year-on-year) [70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased slightly month-on-month, but the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a relatively high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.59% (down 0.48% week-on-week and 6.14% year-on-year), and the daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance was 19.08 tons (down 3.75% week-on-week and up 139% year-on-year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was +30 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton week-on-week and up 21 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.64% (up 0.86% week-on-week and down 1.48% year-on-year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the coking plant inventory decreased slightly. The coking coal inventory in independent coking plants was 857.26 tons (down 0.43% week-on-week and up 4.26% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 296.5 tons (up 0.68% week-on-week and down 34.68% year-on-year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory decreased simultaneously. The coke inventory in independent coking plants was 44.69 tons (down 1.15% week-on-week and 0.47% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coke was 181.3 tons (down 3.26% week-on-week and up 7.79% year-on-year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week and 60 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week and 170 yuan/ton year-on-year) [102]. 05 Spread Analysis The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coils also shrank. The coil-to-rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of iron ore shrank slightly [104][108].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,123.00 | -34↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1477577 | +3036↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -41726 | +5599↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -6 | +14↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 68176 | +2135↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 168 | +5↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,310.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,395 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,540.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,190.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 187.00 | +14↑ ...

| 1.上周15个省份的钢厂涉及产线检修、复产、其中检修产线25条、环比增加14条、复产产线2条，环比减少4条；产线检修影响产量3.78万吨，环比增加5.25万吨，预计 | | --- | | 本周产线检修影响产量44.3万吨。 | | 2.多地启动重污染天气位急响立、2月7日17时起，洛阳启动重污染天气橙色（互视频警响应、长沙12月7日20时启动重污染天气 级例应描施。沧州、邯郸、邢台、西安 | | 于12月8日12时启动重污染天气工级应急响应。 | | 3.2025年12月1日-5日，全国螺纹钢均价3326元/吨，周环比上涨1.06%。供应端，螺纹钢周产量189.31万吨，环比下降8.14%，库存503.81万吨，环比下降5.21%; | | 需求端,消费量216.98万吨,环比下降4.81%。 | | 4.12月5日,全国主港铁矿石成交86.40万吨,环比减31.8%;237家主流贸易商建筑钢材成交8.82万吨,环比减6.1%。 | | 5上周，金国90家独立电巡炉钢厂平均产能利用率53.82%，环比上开1.1个百分点，同比上升0.43个百分点；平均开工率67.72%，环比下降1.41个百分点，同比下降 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月08日08时23分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大，市场对政策面预期增强，强预期 占主导。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约的期价震荡上行，创近一个月高点后回落，短线有望延续之前的震荡企稳回升态势 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，中线交易，逢低可少量加仓 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3157 | -18 | -0.57% | 47 | ...