2025年以来3种钢材价格走势，数据来源：上海钢联 据中国钢铁工业协会官方微信公众号消息，中钢协会长，首钢集团党委书记、董事长赵民革近日接受采访时表示，从供给端来看，今年国家将继续实施粗 钢产量调控政策，预计相关调控措施在下半年开始有所显现，钢铁供需矛盾会有所缓解。 作为炼钢的重要原料，焦炭价格上涨，下游企业的接受度如何？ "如果自产焦能满足生产，公司就能节约（部分成本），反之只能被迫接受焦炭提价。"上述知情人说。 产业链的联动逻辑在此轮涨价中尤为清晰：当前，焦炭上游焦煤价格、下游钢铁价格均有上涨，作为中游环节，此次焦炭价格上涨，或能与上下游共享产 业链利润。 上游原材料端，焦煤主力合约7月30日收盘报1117元/吨，该合约价格自6月以来持续攀升。上海钢联数据显示，自2021年9月起，吕梁主焦煤价格高位回 落。不过，7月下旬起吕梁主焦煤价格迅速上涨，7月30日价格为1411元/吨。 下游钢材方面，螺纹钢主力合约7月30日下午收盘价报3315元/吨，较6月3日年度最低价（2912元/吨）累计上涨13.8%。热卷主力合约同期收于3483元/吨， 盘中价格创5个月以来新高，较年内低点上涨15%，6月以来总体呈上涨趋 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in coke prices is attributed to cost support and improved demand, with major steel mills in Tangshan raising wet coke prices by 50 CNY/ton and dry coke by 55 CNY/ton effective from July 29, 2025 [1][2] - The coke market has experienced a total increase of 200 CNY/ton since July 15, with expectations of further increases totaling around 300 CNY/ton [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in coke prices, with an average drop of 33.12% year-on-year due to weak domestic demand in the steel industry [1][2] Group 2 - The rebound in coke prices is driven by a decrease in domestic supply of coking coal since mid-June due to environmental and safety regulations, leading to a better supply-demand balance [2] - The price of coking coal has increased significantly, with a maximum rise of 350-400 CNY/ton, which has substantially raised the production costs for coke [2][6] - Despite the price increases, many coke enterprises are still facing losses, with only two out of seven forecasted companies expected to avoid losses in the first half of 2025 [4][5] Group 3 - The demand for coke remains stable, with steel mills actively replenishing their inventories, as indicated by an average daily supply of 2.413 million tons of molten iron in July, which is 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [3] - The profitability of the steel industry has improved, with several companies forecasting significant profit increases, contrasting with the ongoing losses faced by coke producers [4][5] Group 4 - Short-term forecasts suggest that coke prices may continue to rise due to high coking coal prices and strong demand from steel mills, with a potential fifth price increase of 50 CNY/ton expected [7][8] - Long-term expectations indicate that the traditional peak consumption season in September and October may lead to increased demand for coke, although there are concerns about potential production cuts in the steel sector [8]

Group 1: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has released regulatory guidelines for stablecoin issuance, detailing applicant qualifications, application processes, reserve asset requirements, anti-money laundering measures, and transitional provisions for existing issuers [3][4][5] - The guidelines encourage interested parties to contact the HKMA by August 31, 2025, and submit applications by September 30, 2025, if they are ready [4][18] - The issuance of stablecoin licenses is expected to benefit companies with relevant application scenarios, particularly those involved in cross-border payments [5][19] Group 2: Overseas Technology Sector - Google - Google's revenue for Q2 2025 reached $96.428 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, driven by double-digit growth in core businesses such as search, YouTube ads, and Google Cloud [8][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to $393.9 billion, $437.5 billion, and $483.9 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at $115.7 billion, $135.7 billion, and $154 billion [7][8] - AI search developments have led to a doubling of token usage, with significant increases in search volume and user engagement, indicating a stable search market for Google [9][10] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - WuXi AppTec - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.6% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, amounting to RMB 20.8 billion, with a 24.2% increase in continuous operations revenue [12][29] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth rate adjustment from 10-15% to 13-17%, with total revenue projected between RMB 425 billion and RMB 435 billion [29][28] - The TIDES business segment showed remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 141.6% year-on-year in H1 2025, and a 48.8% increase in orders [29][12]

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced slight declines [1][11] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 43.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector remained active, with multiple stocks such as Chenxin Pharmaceutical and others hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The film and entertainment sector saw a resurgence, particularly with the film "Nanjing Photo Studio" performing well, grossing over 600 million yuan within five days of its release [3][14] - The steel sector also showed strength, with Xining Special Steel achieving seven consecutive trading limits [5][27] Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 32 stocks hit the daily limit, with a sealing rate of 69%, and nine stocks achieved consecutive limits [1][13] - Notable performers included Chenxin Pharmaceutical with five consecutive limits and Xizang Tourism with eight consecutive limits [1][21] Investment Opportunities - The ongoing trend in innovative pharmaceuticals is highlighted by the collaboration between Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and GlaxoSmithKline, potentially worth up to 12.5 billion USD [5] - The film industry is expected to see steady growth due to the successful release of quality films during the summer season [3][14] Regulatory and Policy Insights - The China Steel Industry Association emphasized the need for self-discipline and stable pricing in the steel industry amid ongoing capacity governance policies [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission is seeking public input on guidelines for government investment funds, aiming to enhance long-term capital deployment [34]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while overall trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day [1] Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 43.2 billion from the previous trading day [1] - More than 3,100 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based sell-off [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included pharmaceuticals, with stocks like Chenxin Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, and the film industry, where companies like Xingfu Lanhai achieved three consecutive daily limits [1] - Super water and electricity concept stocks saw a temporary surge, with Xining Special Steel achieving six daily limits in seven days [1] - Declining sectors included stablecoin concept stocks, with companies like Dongxin He Ping dropping over 5% [1] Index Performance - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.71% [1]

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up by 0.52% at 3628.53 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% to 11283.18 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.71% to 2389.58 points [2] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 43.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector remained active, with stocks like Chenxin Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2] - The film and television sector saw a resurgence, with companies like Xingfu Lanhai achieving three consecutive daily limits [2] - The super hydropower concept stocks experienced a surge, with Xining Special Steel achieving six consecutive daily limits [2] - Conversely, the stablecoin sector faced adjustments, with multiple stocks like Dongxin Peace dropping over 5% [2][3] Stock Movement - Over 3100 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broader downtrend [2] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit was 35, while 3 stocks were suspended from trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with high hopes for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. The iron ore market is under pressure due to potential iron - water production decline and high port trade - mine inventory, but the short - term price is supported by inventory decline [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market News**: The China Iron and Steel Association called on enterprises to control production and stabilize prices, and some Hebei steel mills are required to reduce production due to the parade. These news boosted the threaded steel price, which increased in volume and reached a new stage high [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a significant correction, the futures price increased in volume, indicating strong bullish power [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. For empty - position investors, buy on dips, conduct short - term trading, and set stop - losses and take - profits in a timely manner [2]. - **Related Data**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, all increased. The basis and spreads of various varieties showed different degrees of change. The production, inventory, and trading volume data of steel also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water production is expected to decline significantly in the short term. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the port trade - mine inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term adjustment, the futures price stabilized and rebounded [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long on dips in the short term and set stop - losses and take - profits in a timely manner [5]. - **Related Data**: The prices of various iron ore varieties, basis, spreads, shipment volume, freight rates, exchange rates, inventory, and production data all showed different degrees of change [5]. 3. Industry News - The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with different price adjustments in Shandong and Hebei markets [8]. - From July 21st to 27th, 2024, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased compared with last Monday due to a decline in arrival volume [8]. - The China Iron and Steel Association called on enterprises to continue to adhere to the "Three - Fixed and Three - No" principle, control production, and stabilize prices, and promote self - discipline in key steel product markets [9]. - Hainan Development's subsidiary, Haikong Sanxin, recently reduced production by shutting down a 550 - ton kiln and five deep - processing production lines [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The logic of the market is the contradiction between macro and industry, with intensified long - short game [3] - Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement 15%. Tariff negotiations are going smoothly, and overseas macro is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates in the short term. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere of coal and coke is strong. The exchange has warned of risks and restricted positions, causing the supply - side trading to cool down in the short term, and the demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventory is low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Data - On July 25, 2025, the hot metal supply was 242.2 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons), scrap steel supply was 46.5 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons), scrap steel demand was 51.8 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.2 tons), and scrap steel inventory was 459.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 4.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.0 tons). For other steel products such as rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, detailed supply, demand, inventory, and price data are also provided [4] 2. Macro - level Information - Overseas: The US - Japan and US - EU tariffs are confirmed, and the short - term tendency is to maintain high - interest rates. There are contradictions in the US regarding employment, inflation, and manufacturing return, which may damage the US dollar's credit. Domestic: The exchange's risk warning and position restrictions have cooled down the supply - side trading in the short term. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting. There have been some real - estate favorable policies and debt - replacement measures in previous meetings [5][8][9] 3. Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3430 yuan/ton (+180), the main futures price was 3356 yuan/ton (+209), the main - contract basis was 74 yuan/ton (-29), and the 10 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton (+1). The spread is approaching the risk - free window, and reverse arbitrage should stop profiting and exit [14] - **Demand**: New - home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. Demand is in the off - season, and indicators such as cement shipments are seasonally declining [15][18][19] - **Inventory**: Steel inventory is at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [21] - **Production Profit**: The "anti - involution" trading has led to a slight expansion of profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 427 yuan/ton (+103), the main - contract profit was 331 yuan/ton (+60), and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 293 yuan/ton (+156) [27][31] 4. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (+160), the main futures price was 3507 yuan/ton (+197), the main - contract basis was - 7 yuan/ton (-37), and the 10 - 01 spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-1). Reverse arbitrage should stop profiting and exit [36] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the off - season. The internal - external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [37][40][41] - **Inventory and Production**: In the off - season, demand slightly exceeds expectations, and the inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production has declined [43][45] - **Production Profit**: The "anti - involution" trading has led to a slight expansion of profits. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 326 yuan/ton (+80), and the main - contract profit was 332 yuan/ton (+48) [47][50] 5. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the expanding cold - hot spread [51] 6. Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil are provided, including differences between cities such as Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [60][61][62] 7. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Detailed seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided [64][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the value reassessment of the strategic metals sector has just begun, contrary to some investors' belief that the recent rapid price increases indicate an impending peak [8][14] - It highlights three dimensions supporting this view: policy measures against strategic mineral smuggling, a tight supply-demand balance driving product prices up, and an increase in risk appetite due to political policy risk premiums [8][14][17] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Some investors believe the recent surge in strategic metals prices is unsustainable and may soon peak [8][13] - The report counters this by stating that the value reassessment of strategic metals is just beginning, driven by macroeconomic inflation, tight supply-demand dynamics, and political risk premiums [14][17] - Policy measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling are expected to be reinforced, particularly for rare earths and other strategic metals [15] - The supply-demand balance remains tight, with increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and offshore wind power, leading to rising prices for rare earths [16] - Political policy risk premiums are expected to rise, enhancing the attractiveness of the strategic metals sector [17] Steel Industry - Steel prices are anticipated to continue rising due to production cut expectations [18] - Steel demand and production have decreased, but a dynamic balance in supply and demand is expected [18][25] - Inventory levels are showing differentiation among various steel products, with total inventory likely to decline further [25] - Cost increases in raw materials are pushing steel prices up, with profits for steel mills expected to recover [28] - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing notable price rises [35] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in June 2025 showing substantial growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have generally risen, while nickel prices have seen a decline [49][50] Industrial Metals - Global refined copper production has increased, with supply slightly better than expected [57] - The demand outlook is improving, with manufacturing activity expected to continue recovering [69]

Core Viewpoint - Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on imported products containing Chinese steel, which is seen as an attempt to shift the burden of its trade issues with the U.S. onto China [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - The Canadian government is responding to stalled trade negotiations with the U.S. by targeting China, hoping to gain favor with the U.S. by sacrificing Chinese interests [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized Canada's actions as a violation of WTO rules and indicative of unilateralism and protectionism [3][8] Group 2: Economic Impact - China's response includes a significant order worth $3.7 billion for agricultural products from Australia, effectively closing the door on Canadian canola exports, which previously accounted for 64% of Canada's total exports to China [3][4] - Canadian farmers are experiencing delays in soybean orders and significant port congestion, with 8 million tons of canola stuck at ports [4][6] Group 3: Domestic Reactions - Canadian farmers and agricultural associations are expressing dissatisfaction, with calls for the government to reconsider its approach to trade with China [6][7] - Internal divisions are emerging within Canada, with opposition parties questioning the government's strategy and its impact on farmers [6][7] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Australia is seizing the opportunity to re-establish trade with China, utilizing a rolling procurement model that allows for flexibility and short-term gains [4][7] - Canada's concessions to the U.S. have not resulted in reciprocal treatment, leading to a cycle of dependency and loss of trade partners [7][8]