Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Group 1: North Exchange Market Overview - In 2025, the North Exchange market achieved significant breakthroughs, with total market value exceeding 820 billion, number of accounts reaching 9.5 million, and average daily trading volume approaching 30 billion, indicating a qualitative leap in liquidity [6][8]. - The market's focus on "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" characteristics is evident, with national-level "little giant" companies accounting for 61%, fostering a matrix of high-growth and scarce enterprises in sectors like new energy, robotics, and AI [6][8]. - The average net profit of newly listed companies in 2024 increased from 30 million to 110 million, reflecting continuous improvement in enterprise quality [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy for 2026 - The North Exchange will deepen its layout around "scarcity" and "new productive forces" as it enters the 15th Five-Year Plan, with policies expected to continue promoting innovation in fund products and optimizing the IPO mechanism [8][9]. - The average first-day IPO gain in the first 11 months of 2025 was 356%, with average subscription funds exceeding 640 billion, indicating a vibrant IPO market expected to continue into 2026 [8]. - Public fund holdings reached 22.4 billion in the first half of 2025, with a clear trend of dual-driven growth from active and passive funds, and the introduction of new ETF products is anticipated to inject significant capital [8][9]. Group 3: Metal New Materials Sector - Copper prices have risen significantly, with weekly increases of 5.74% in London copper and 6.12% in Shanghai copper, driven by macroeconomic factors and a substantial reduction in domestic copper inventories [12][13]. - The supply-demand balance for copper is shifting from tight equilibrium to potential shortages due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [12]. - Aluminum prices are also on the rise, with a 3.28% increase in Shanghai aluminum, supported by stable demand and limited supply growth [13]. Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical index fell by 0.74%, but the sector is expected to see a wave of valuation recovery in the first half of 2026 due to numerous innovation drug catalysts [18][21]. - ZG006 from Zai Lab shows promising clinical data for treating refractory small cell lung cancer, with response rates of 60% and 66.7% in different dosage groups, indicating a significant market potential [20][21]. - Recommended stocks in the pharmaceutical sector include Xinyi Tai, Zai Lab, and Heng Rui Medicine, focusing on companies with clear performance trends and potential for operational reversals in 2026 [23].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that copper prices are on the rise due to macroeconomic catalysts and significant inventory reductions in China. The prices of copper in London, Shanghai, and New York have increased by 5.74%, 6.12%, and 3.33% respectively. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [4][23] - The aluminum sector is also experiencing upward price movement, with aluminum prices rising by 3.28% to 22,215 CNY/ton. The report indicates that while alumina prices are under pressure, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage next year [4][36] - Lithium prices are under short-term pressure due to seasonal demand declines and supply recovery expectations, with carbonate lithium prices dropping by 0.53% to 93,250 CNY/ton. However, the report anticipates a demand-driven upward cycle for lithium prices in the future [4][79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight raw material supply, with MB cobalt prices increasing by 1.05% to 24.15 USD/pound. The report notes that the supply chain disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are likely to maintain upward price pressure [4][91] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for November was 48.2, below expectations, and the ADP employment figures also fell short, suggesting a cooling economy [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector shows a significant increase, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.98 percentage points [10][11] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen significant increases, with London copper up 5.74% and Shanghai copper up 6.12%. The report notes a decrease in Shanghai copper inventory by 9.22% [20][23] - Aluminum prices are also rising, with a reported increase in aluminum profits by 11.02% to 6,220 CNY/ton, despite a slight decline in alumina prices [36][50] - Lead and zinc prices have increased, with lead prices up 1.10% and zinc prices up 1.54%. However, the report notes that smelting margins for lead are negative [50][62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing short-term adjustments, with carbonate lithium down 0.53% to 93,250 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices have increased slightly [79] - Cobalt prices are on the rise, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.97% to 414,000 CNY/ton, supported by tight supply conditions [91][103]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt announced that its controlling shareholder, Huayou Holdings, completed the release of part of its pledged shares on December 2, totaling 12.561 million shares, which accounts for 4.07% of its holdings and 0.66% of the company's total share capital [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Share Pledge Release - Huayou Holdings released 12.561 million pledged shares, representing 4.07% of its holdings and 0.66% of the total share capital [1] Current Shareholding Status - As of the announcement date, Huayou Holdings holds 309 million shares, which is 16.28% of the total share capital, with 136 million shares still pledged, accounting for 44.02% of its holdings and 7.17% of the total share capital [1] - Huayou Holdings and its concerted party, Chen Xuehua, collectively hold 391 million shares, representing 20.63% of the total share capital, with a total of 162 million shares pledged, which is 41.51% of their total holdings and 8.56% of the total share capital [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 111.56%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province, and was established on May 22, 2002. The company was listed on January 29, 2015, and specializes in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [1]. - The main business revenue composition includes: nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), trade and others (15.55%), nickel intermediates (14.91%), copper products (5.95%), ternary precursors (5.25%), lithium products (4.18%), and cobalt products (3.33%) [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Huayou Cobalt achieved operating revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.57%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.216 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.59% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Huayou Cobalt has distributed a total of 3.876 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.835 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of Huayou Cobalt shareholders reached 257,100, an increase of 31.78% compared to the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 15.22% to 7,328 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 148 million shares, a decrease of 1.6723 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xiangcai Securities suggests focusing on the supply side being affected by foreign mine shutdowns in the short term and long-term supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure, while domestic grid investment and new demand from AI and renewable energy are expected to increase the supply-demand gap in the future [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry has significantly outperformed benchmarks since 2025, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 65.71%, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 52.53 percentage points [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector's revenue growth has stabilized, with a year-on-year revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, and a net profit of 151.29 billion yuan, up 40.9% [2] - The energy metals sector has shown substantial improvement in performance, while precious metals and minor metals continue to lead in revenue and profit growth [2] Group 2: Copper Sector - In the first three quarters of 2025, the copper sector achieved a revenue of 1.424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%, and a net profit of 69.01 billion yuan, up 46.17% [3] - The profitability of the copper sector has improved, with gross and net profit margins increasing to 10.42% and 5.84%, respectively [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, up 62.64% [4] - The growth in revenue and net profit is primarily driven by significant increases in gold and silver prices [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Tungsten Sectors - The rare earth sector's revenue growth turned positive in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant improvements in performance, while the magnetic materials segment also saw revenue growth and improved profitability [4] - The tungsten sector achieved a revenue of 50.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.38%, and a net profit of 2.87 billion yuan, up 28.58% [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The copper smelting profit cycle is expected to bottom out, and copper prices may break upward. Recent price changes for copper are +2.66% (LME), +2.07% (SHFE), and +5.64% (COMEX). The domestic copper inventory has significantly decreased, with LME copper inventory at 159,425 tons (+2.84%), SHFE copper inventory at 97,930 tons (-11.46%), and COMEX copper inventory at 41,900 short tons (+3.93%) [5][25] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory depletion, leading to rising aluminum prices. The current price of aluminum is 21,510 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry has increased to 62.3% [5][33] - The lithium market is seeing a reversal in supply and demand, with lithium prices entering a new cycle. The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 1.57% to 93,750 CNY/ton, and spodumene prices have increased by 5.60% to 1,150 USD/ton [5][72] - The cobalt market remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising. The price of MB cobalt has increased by 0.31% to 23.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices have risen by 0.25% to 406,000 CNY/ton [5][80] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37% compared to the index's 1.40% [12][13] - The PE_TTM valuation for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.90, while the PB_LF valuation is 3.08, indicating a premium over the overall market [21][22] 2. Copper - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper up 2.66% and SHFE copper up 2.07%. The copper smelting profit margin remains negative at -1,816 CNY/ton, but losses are narrowing [25][33] 3. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of recovery with rising prices and decreasing inventories. The operating rate for aluminum processing has increased, indicating stronger demand [33][41] 4. Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with significant increases in both lithium carbonate and spodumene prices. The supply-demand dynamics are shifting positively for lithium producers [72][80] 5. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to tight supply conditions. The recent increase in cobalt prices reflects ongoing demand pressures [80][81]