最近，黄金市场彻底疯了。 一条27克的周大福五帝钱金手链，价格从53800元直奔71800元，短短两三 个月暴涨18000元。 这还不是个例，周大福即将启动春节后新一轮涨价，部分"一口价"产品涨幅可能超 过30%。 另一边，高端黄金品牌老铺黄金宣布2月28日调价，全国多地门店出现通宵排长队抢购，专柜被一扫而 空，网友戏称"只剩下柜台和柜姐"。 国际金价在2月20日突破每盎司5100美元历史高位，成为这场消费 狂潮最直接的推手。 但当你为一条手链支付超过3000元每克的天价时，你真的在投资黄金，还是在为 一场华丽的消费幻觉买单？ 2月24日，周大福被曝即将启动春节后的新一轮调价。 这次涨价火力集中在了那些工艺复杂、不按克重 标价的"一口价"产品上，预计整体涨幅在15%到30%之间，部分爆款涨幅将超过30%。 这已经是周大福近一年来的第四次调价了。 以那条27克左右的五帝钱盘缠手串为例，它在去年12月刚 刚从38600元涨到50800元，涨幅31.6%。 而这次调价后，它的价格将直接跳到71800元。 算下来，这条 手链在短短几个月内，总价上涨了24000元，每克单价高达2659元，远超基础金价。 不仅仅是五帝钱 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 行业观察 春节消费观察 Market Strategy - 景气度符合预期，品类分化持续 马年春节期间，在为期九天的超长假期及节前九部委联合政策推动下，消费市 场得到一定提振。我们认为，整体趋势符合预期，结构上延续了物质消费与服 务消费分化、以"悦己"为代表的情绪型消费更具韧性等特征。从我们跟踪的 重点板块来看：1）旅游：整体旅游消费增长具备韧性且符合市场预期，"长途 游"和"家庭化"是关键词；2）线下消费：全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售 额及重点步行街（商圈）营业额增速环比及同比均有所提振；3）线上消费：由 于品牌在春节期间的营销投放力度显著弱于 618、双 11 等大型电商促销节点， 整体销售表现相对平淡。 线上消费：品牌营销投放力度显著弱于 618 和双 11，故销售表现平淡。 1）美妆护肤：根据蝉妈妈数据，2026 年春节假期期间，重点品牌在抖音 平台的合计销售额区间从去年的 2.12 亿-3.48 亿元上升至今年的 2.50 亿- 3.78 亿元，同比增速约为 12.0%（图 2）；若以区间中位数计算日均销售 额，同比-0.4%，基 ...

上海 黄金饰品行业协会发布《关于规范上海黄金珠宝行业回收服务的建议函》，协会经研究讨论，现 提出以下建议： 1.积极执行行业标准：本市涉及黄金回收服务的企业，应积极参照执行《黄金回收点经 营服务规范》（DB31/T1262-2020）地方标准，规范金银制品及黄金饰品的回收经营服务。 2.落实强制 身份登记：在回收黄金饰品时，必须查验并登记出售人的有效身份证件，准确记录姓名、证件号码、联 系方式等信息，建议留存证件清晰的复印件或电子影像。 3.完善交易信息记录：对每笔回收交易建立详 细台账，记录物品名称、特征（如品牌、型号、重量、成色、独特标识等）、来源说明（要求出售人简 要陈述）、交易时间、交易金额等。台账记录应至少保存两年，以备核查。 4.建立可疑情况报告制度： 当出现出售人拒绝出示证件或身份可疑、出售物品数量多且新旧不一、来源说法矛盾、出售价格远低于 市场价值、物品有明显磨损痕迹但与所述来源不符等可疑情况时，应第一时间向当地公安机关报告。 ...

春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情绪价值和体验 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 2026 年春节消费调研观察 春节线下零售和服务消费高景气，下沉市场客流更旺盛、线下消费更火热。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026.02.09 社会服务业《乐购新春方案出台，关注春节消费 表现》2026.02.08 社会服务业《政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎 黄金投资期》2026.02.07 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 票 研 究 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读 ...

今天早上，很多人的金价APP弹出了1109.8元/克的数字。 这个价格不仅跌破了关键的1110元心理关口，而且连续 两小时都在这个位置下方徘徊。 朋友圈里，卖金饰的商家截图说"今早加工费没降，但金料价少赚5块"，定投黄 金的朋友也在问："我定投的第9期，还扣不扣？ "这不仅仅是数字的变化，背后是黄金ETF连续两周的资金净流 出、美联储官员不再提"3月大概率降息"，以及美元指数涨到半年新高108.2。 当避险情绪退潮，美元强势归来， 黄金这场持续了数月的狂欢，似乎真的迎来了一个转折点。 国内基础金价在2月25日报1109.00元/克，较前一日下跌了1.20%。 而在国际市场上，现货黄金价格在2月24日一度 下跌近2.5%，最低触及5094美元/盎司，最终收在5141.43美元/盎司。 同一天，上海期货交易所的沪金主力合约价 格也跌至1080.05元/克。 与原料价格下跌形成鲜明对比的是，品牌金店的零售价依然高企。 周大福、老凤祥等品 牌的足金首饰报价普遍在1545元至1565元每克，深圳水贝批发市场的价格则在1314元至1336元每克。 这意味着消 费者购买一克品牌黄金，需要为品牌溢价和工艺费多支付超过400元 ...

Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - As of February 24, 2026, domestic gold jewelry prices show significant price differentiation, with major brands quoting 24K gold (99.9% purity) between 1538 to 1603 RMB per gram [1] - China Gold leads with a price of 1603 RMB per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao Gold are at 1538 RMB per gram; Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook Jewelry, and others are priced at 1545 RMB per gram [1] - The Shui Bei market, a wholesale hub, reports a lower price of 1334 RMB per gram, indicating a price gap of 200-270 RMB per gram compared to branded stores [1] International Gold Price Volatility - The international gold market experienced heightened volatility, with London spot gold opening at 5160.01 USD per ounce, peaking at 5176.28 USD and dipping to 5107.12 USD before settling at 5160.91 USD [2] - New York gold futures also rose, reaching 5182 USD per ounce, alongside increases in silver, platinum, and palladium prices [2] Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central banks remain a key driver of gold demand, with the World Gold Council estimating an average net purchase of about 1000 tons annually from 2023 to 2024, decreasing to 900 tons in 2025 [3] - Recent volatility in gold prices has dampened short-term purchasing intentions among central banks, particularly in emerging markets, which prefer to wait for price stabilization [3] Price Adjustments and Promotions in Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a contradiction of discount promotions and planned price increases, with Chow Tai Fook announcing a price hike of 15% to 30% for certain products starting mid-March [4] - This price adjustment aims to counter rising costs associated with craftsmanship and copyright, particularly for high-margin items that are less sensitive to price changes [4] Long-term Outlook for Gold Prices - Several international institutions maintain a bullish outlook on gold, with UBS raising its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to 6200 USD per ounce, and JPMorgan predicting a rise to 6300 USD by the end of 2026 [6] - The silver market is expected to face a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with ongoing geopolitical factors supporting price increases [6]

Group 1 - The overall retail market performance in South China during the 2026 Spring Festival was weak, with a decline in customer traffic and average transaction value being the main factors affecting sales [3] - Consumer travel increased in South China, contributing to the decline in foot traffic in shopping districts [3] - The toy sector remains highly prosperous, with Pop Mart (09992) expected to achieve over 25% growth for the year, driven by strong IP operation capabilities [4] Group 2 - The cosmetics sector showed slight overall growth, but there was a clear divide between foreign and domestic brands, with foreign brands like Dior and MAC recording approximately 10% growth [5] - The restaurant industry exhibited a K-shaped recovery during the Spring Festival, with large dining establishments facing pressure on average transaction values, while fast food and casual dining showed relative stability [6] - The apparel sector's sales remained flat, with growth primarily driven by pre-Festival consumption, and sports brands experiencing a slowdown in same-store sales growth [7] Group 3 - The luggage brand Samsonite (01910) benefited from travel demand, with sales rising approximately 15% year-on-year during January-February 2026 [8] - The jewelry sector saw a decline in customer traffic but benefited from rising gold prices, leading to a high single-digit increase in sales [9]

海通国际发布研报称，2026年春节期间华南百货客流下滑，消费分化明显。潮玩赛道高景气，泡泡玛特 (09992)预计全年增长超25%，毛戈平(01318)凭借核心产品维持高双位数增长。箱包品牌新秀丽(01910) 受益出行需求，1-2月同比回升约15%。餐饮服饰表现平淡，黄金珠宝靠金价支撑销售额。 海通国际主要观点如下： 事件 根据该行近期对某华南百货渠道的调研反馈，该百货渠道2026年春节期间零售市场整体表现平淡，客流 下滑及客单价下降为主要拖累因素 根据专家对多个核心项目的监测，2026年春节假期前六天中有五天商场客流同比录得下跌，仅一天实现 同比增长，整体经营表现低于公司内部预期。尽管车流数据因部分商圈周边停车费用相对较低而普遍上 升，但部分驾车客流可能仅停留于周边项目，并未完全转化为场内实际消费，专家分析指出华南地区消 费者出游人数增多是导致商圈客流同比下降的主要原因之一。 潮玩赛道持续高景气，头部品牌凭借IP运营能力及会员粘性保持强劲增长 根据专家数据，泡泡玛特整体增长强劲，1Q25因Labubu IP爆火同比增长40%左右，同比增速仍保持稳 定，基于其强大的IP运营能力(专家预期26年仍会有一款大热 ...

Group 1: Travel and Tourism Data - During the Spring Festival holiday, a total of 596 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending reaching 803.48 billion yuan, both figures marking historical highs [1] - The average daily number of trips during the Spring Festival increased by 3.5% compared to the previous year, with significant growth in cultural and traditional tourism [16] - In Shenzhen, over 10.54 million tourists were received, a 17.9% increase from the previous year, generating tourism revenue of 11.845 billion yuan, up 19.8% [8][10] Group 2: Payment and Consumption Trends - During the 2026 Spring Festival, UnionPay and Wanglian processed 39.302 billion transactions amounting to 13.12 trillion yuan, with daily transaction volume and amount increasing by 37.45% and 19.26% respectively compared to 2025 [3] - WeChat Pay reported over 20% year-on-year growth in offline transactions for travel and entertainment during the Spring Festival [5] - Alipay noted a nearly 90% increase in transaction volume from foreign tourists in China, with spending up over 80% compared to the previous year [7] Group 3: Regional Highlights - In Hubei, over 22.8 million tourists visited 600+ A-level tourist attractions, a 28.27% increase from 2025, with popular sites like Yellow Crane Tower and Wudang Mountain seeing significant visitor numbers [22] - Shanghai received 21.67 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 8.36%, with total tourism consumption reaching 25.614 billion yuan, up 20.9% [18] - In Chongqing, over 2,000 promotional consumption activities were organized, leading to a 7.8% increase in total consumption, with retail sales and nighttime consumption also showing growth [20] Group 4: Emerging Consumer Trends - The trend of "reverse reunion" saw a significant increase, with young adults bringing their parents to major cities for the holiday, particularly in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [21] - County-level hotels experienced a surge in bookings, with occupancy rates increasing over 60% in non-tourist areas, driven by returning young people [24] - New consumption habits emerged, with a notable interest in purchasing technology products and gold jewelry during the Spring Festival [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The price disparity in the gold market highlights the significant brand premium and the impact of different sales channels on gold pricing, leading to confusion among consumers regarding the true value of gold [1][6][16]. Group 1: Price Disparities - In Shenzhen's wholesale market, the price for 1 gram of 999 gold is 1334 yuan, while it can reach 1545 yuan in retail stores like Chow Tai Fook, creating a price difference of 211 yuan [1]. - The price difference can be as high as 435 yuan when considering the buyback price, which can be as low as 1110 yuan [1]. - The average retail price in brand stores has reached 1603 yuan, significantly higher than the market price [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - International gold prices reached a high of 5249.29 USD per ounce but fell to 5186.68 USD due to profit-taking, reflecting volatility in the market [3]. - Domestic gold prices surged post-Chinese New Year, with Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a price of 1150.48 yuan per gram, a daily increase of 3.91% [4]. - The discrepancy between international price drops and domestic price increases is attributed to pent-up demand and the unique dynamics of the domestic market [4]. Group 3: Brand Premiums - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have significant price premiums, with prices reaching 1560 yuan and 1556 yuan per gram, respectively [6]. - Investment gold bars from banks are priced closer to market rates, with prices around 1166.95 to 1169.40 yuan per gram, contrasting sharply with brand store prices [6]. - The high brand premiums are not reflective of the intrinsic value of gold but rather the costs associated with branding and marketing [6]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - For consumers needing gold for weddings or gifts, purchasing is advisable, but caution against blindly following price trends is recommended [11]. - The wedding market has seen a surge in demand, with prices for traditional wedding gold reaching significant levels, indicating a cultural reliance on gold [11]. - For those looking to invest in gold for long-term asset allocation, a gradual purchasing strategy is suggested to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [13]. Group 5: Market Influences - Three main factors are driving the current gold price dynamics: heightened global risk aversion, expectations of loose monetary policy, and structural changes in central bank gold holdings [9]. - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves, which supports long-term gold prices [9]. - The market is experiencing a shift where the financial attributes of gold are becoming more pronounced, raising questions about its valuation as both an investment and a consumer product [16].