10月17日，老铺黄金股份有限公司（以下简称"老铺黄金"）发布调价预告称将于10月26日进行产品提价 调整。产品调价详情，以线上线下门店产品实际标价为准。 记者注意到，这已经是老铺黄金年内第三次调价。今年2月份，老铺黄金进行产品价格上调，多数产品 调价幅度在10%以内；8月份宣布提价时，主要产品价格上调幅度在10%至12%。 尽管价格持续走高，老铺黄金的市场热度却不降反升。其"古法金"系列产品持续受到市场追捧，多款热 门设计如钻石金刚杵、玫瑰花窗等，在部分专柜需预约排队购买，线上平台也出现多款产品断货下架的 现象。 市场热度从线下门店的客流中亦可见一斑。10月19日下午，正值周末客流高峰，记者在北京SKP老铺黄 金门店看到，店铺入口排起长队。一位正在排队的消费者对《证券日报》记者表示："听说月底要涨 价，加上最近金价一直在高位，想赶在调价前入手。" 在市场热烈反响的推动下，老铺黄金不断加快拓展步伐。9月13日，老铺黄金在北京SKP一层的独立门 店正式开市，这也是老铺黄金在北京SKP的第三家店铺。9月30日，老铺黄金在香港国际金融中心 （ifc）的新店正式开市。这也是老铺黄金继海港城门店、广东道门店之后，在香港 ...

EMBA 培训业务受中美贸易摩擦影响，三季度报单率和收款改善，预计 全年业绩超 3 亿，估值 15-16 倍，股息率超 6%，明年百校计划预计贡 献 10%以上营收增量。 首旅酒店逐季数据改善，开店数量提升，推进 260 万间客房目标。预计 今年业绩 9 亿，估值 17-18 倍；明年 10 亿，估值 16 倍。内需消费改 善预期带来业绩和估值弹性。 小商品城市值回调后具布局价值，前三季度业绩超预期，三季度归母净 利润超 17 亿，新业务保持中高双位数增长。上调全年利润预期至 47- 48 亿，明年至 58 亿甚至更高，目前估值 16-17 倍。 永辉超市调整门店，日销逐步稳定，早期调整门店已盈利，关店计划减 少利润拖累。预计明年减亏甚至扭亏为盈，自有产品推进有望带来流量 增长，股价恢复前景可观。 美妆板块受双十一催化，珀莱雅和薇诺娜表现突出。珀莱雅估值具性价 比，薇诺娜改善显著，值得重点关注。珀莱雅 2025 年估值不超过 20 倍，2026 年 16-17 倍。 积极看好低位消费股布局机会 20251017 摘要 Q&A 目前消费板块在市场表现中相对较弱，您认为未来有哪些可能的催化因素和性 价比较高的公司 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. Baijiu Industry - The Baijiu industry experienced a seasonal sales decline of approximately 20% during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with high-end brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performing relatively well. Inventory levels have not significantly decreased, and a slight upward trend is expected in the future [1][3][4] - Strong brand power and good sales performance are crucial for companies in this sector, with companies like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining advantages. Companies with flexible operations, such as Zhenjiu and Laojiao, are also worth monitoring [5] 2. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector saw a slowdown in growth during Q3 2025, with beverage and dairy products showing improvement from a low base, while condiments maintained steady growth. Leading companies like Dongpeng, Nongfu Spring, and Yanjing Beer performed well and are recommended for investment [1][6] 3. Beauty Industry - The beauty industry showed overall good performance with no significant slowdown in growth. Some companies even exceeded their Q2 growth rates. High-growth companies like Ruoyuchen and Shanghai Jahwa are recommended for investment [1][7] 4. Gold and Jewelry Sector - Leading companies in the gold and jewelry sector continued to grow rapidly, benefiting from rising gold prices and price increase strategies. Companies like Laofengxiang and Zhouliufu reported impressive growth, with Laofengxiang's single-store revenue reaching up to 200% growth in September [1][8] 5. Trendy Toys and Supermarket Reform - In the trendy toy sector, Pop Mart remains in a high growth phase, while Miniso's Q3 report showed promising data. In the supermarket reform sector, companies like Bubugao and Huijia Times are experiencing performance releases, and ATO's rapid growth in bedding products is noteworthy [1][9] 6. Pork Industry - Pork prices saw a slight decline this week, but demand for secondary fattening is increasing, stabilizing prices at the bottom. Companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan, are expected to seize more opportunities as breeding sow capacity continues to decrease [1][18][17] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance sector faced challenges in Q3 due to the gradual withdrawal of subsidies, leading to a less optimistic outlook for domestic demand. However, white goods showed stable performance, with leading companies like Haier and Midea expected to achieve near double-digit revenue growth [2][13] Other Notable Trends - The light industry, particularly the paper industry, is expected to see a turning point in Q4, with potential price increases in packaging and cultural paper [14] - The agricultural sector is focusing on the pork industry, with ongoing capacity reduction impacting future supply and price trends [17] - The pet sector is showing strong growth, with companies like Zhongchong and Guibao Pet expected to perform well [20] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends across various industries as discussed in the conference call records, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 老铺黄金预告新一轮调价，看好短期销售催 化与品牌持续破圈 2025 年 10 月 19 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 2024/10/21 2025/2/18 2025/6/18 2025/10/16 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 | 1. 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics in the gold and silver markets, highlighting the impact of soaring gold prices on consumer behavior and the shift towards silver as an alternative investment option [1][11]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold price has surged significantly, reaching 988 yuan per gram, up from 796 yuan in early September, reflecting a rapid increase that has left many young consumers hesitant to purchase [3][10]. - Many young consumers express regret for not buying gold earlier when prices were lower, with some opting for smaller gold items or even considering renting gold for wedding purposes to manage costs [3][4][10]. - The market has seen an increase in gold recycling activities, with more consumers looking to sell their gold at high prices, leading to a widening gap between buying and selling prices [8][10]. Group 2: Shift to Silver - As gold prices remain high, younger consumers are increasingly turning to silver, which has seen a price increase of over 84% year-to-date, outperforming gold [11][12]. - The demand for silver is evident in the market, with quick purchases being made, such as a buyer who ordered two silver bars within ten minutes, indicating a shift in investment strategy [11][12]. Group 3: Emerging Risks in Gold Trading - The rise in gold prices has led to the emergence of risky trading practices, with reports of gold traders engaging in high-leverage betting schemes that deviate from traditional gold trading [14][15]. - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association has issued warnings about illegal activities in the market, highlighting the risks associated with speculative trading that could lead to significant financial losses for investors [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail sector, highlighting potential growth opportunities during the upcoming sales events and the impact of rising gold prices on jewelry sales [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The Double Eleven shopping festival has been extended and optimized to enhance user engagement and sales performance across various e-commerce platforms, with notable participation from major players like Tmall, JD, and Douyin [1][2]. - Instant retail is emerging as a new growth point, with platforms like Taobao and JD introducing features aimed at faster delivery and exclusive discounts for members [1][2]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing a boost in sales due to rising gold prices, with companies like Chow Tai Fook reporting significant same-store sales growth [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Trends - The Double Eleven festival has been extended by several days across major platforms, with Tmall extending by 2 days and JD by 4 days compared to last year [1]. - Simplified purchasing methods, such as direct discounts, are being emphasized to improve consumer experience [1]. - Instant retail initiatives are being launched, with Taobao and JD leading the charge in offering faster delivery options [1][2]. Jewelry Market Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a same-store sales increase of 8.6% for its franchise stores in mainland China for Q3 2025, driven by rising gold prices [2][3]. - The average selling price of gold jewelry has increased significantly, reflecting consumer purchasing power and brand strength [2][3]. - The company is also adjusting its product pricing strategy, indicating strong brand positioning in the market [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong Q3 performance and those likely to benefit from the upcoming holiday season, particularly in cross-border e-commerce and retail sectors [7][8]. - Key investment themes include new consumer growth, transformation opportunities, and favorable policies impacting the retail landscape [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cyclical recovery of the restaurant industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating due to expected growth exceeding the market average by over 15% in the next 3-6 months [31]. Core Insights - The restaurant industry is currently experiencing a cyclical recovery phase, driven by macroeconomic improvements and supportive consumer policies, with structural growth opportunities emerging [2]. - Key segments such as casual dining, freshly made beverages, and chain brands are performing exceptionally well [2]. - The recovery is attributed to supply-side adjustments, with inefficient capacities being phased out and leading brands enhancing operational efficiency [2]. - The report highlights the potential of AI in retail, particularly with Alibaba's advancements in AI infrastructure [2]. Industry Data Tracking - The overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com saw a year-on-year decline of 15.39% in the first week of August [4]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during the same period were home improvement, home appliances, consumer electronics, automotive, and maternal and infant products [4]. - Cross-border e-commerce exports reached approximately 1.63 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a 6.6% increase [3][15]. Market Review - From October 13 to October 17, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index experienced declines of 1.47% and 4.99%, respectively [22]. - The retail sector showed a slight decline of 0.45%, ranking third among nine major consumption sectors [22]. - Notable stock performances included Guoguang Chain and Hebai Group, which saw significant gains, while companies like Xinghui Co. and Zhejiang Dongri faced declines [22][26]. Investment Recommendations - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Laopu Gold are expected to continue high growth due to strong same-store sales and expansion potential [6]. - The report suggests focusing on leading brands with strong pricing power and overseas capacity, particularly in the context of cross-border e-commerce [28]. - For online retail, Tencent is highlighted for its potential improvements through AI integration and a robust WeChat ecosystem, which is expected to enhance sales conversion [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Anta Sports [9][27]. Core Insights - Fast Retailing reported strong performance for FY2025, with revenue increasing by 9.6% to 3,400.5 billion JPY, operating profit rising by 13.6% to 551.1 billion JPY, and net profit growing by 16.4% to 433.0 billion JPY [1][14]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 10.3% for FY2026, projecting revenue to reach 3,750.0 billion JPY and operating profit to increase by 10.7% to 610.0 billion JPY [1][14]. - Inventory levels increased by 8% to 510.9 billion JPY, attributed to higher stock of core items and expansion efforts in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [1][14]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - Uniqlo Japan's revenue grew by 10.1% to 1,026.0 billion JPY, with operating profit up by 17.5% to 181.3 billion JPY, and same-store sales increasing by 8.1% [20]. - Overseas Uniqlo business saw a revenue increase of 11.6% to 1,910.2 billion JPY, with operating profit rising by 10.6% to 305.3 billion JPY, despite a 4% decline in Greater China [20]. - GU business revenue grew by 3.6% to 330.7 billion JPY, but operating profit decreased by 12.6% to 28.3 billion JPY due to rising personnel costs [21]. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the textile manufacturing sector down by 1.46% and brand apparel down by 0.11% [32]. - Key stocks such as Shenzhou International and Anta Sports are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth potential [25][27]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance and growth potential, such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, with respective PE ratios of 16x, 17x, and 11x for 2025 [25][26]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like Hailan Home and Luolai Lifestyle for their business expansion and resilience in the current market environment [26].

【导读】金价高攀不起？年轻人转战"白银" 中国基金报记者 孙越 过去一周，金价暴涨又急跌，每一次波动都牵动人心。 这个周末，记者来到全国最大的黄金珠宝集散地——深圳水贝市场，这里依旧人流如织。但在高位巨 震的金价之下，"淘金客"们的心态早已不同：年轻人一边因金价高企而犹豫，一边转身拥抱白银； 商家忙着主推小克重金饰、银饰，黄金回收柜台上咨询的人也多了起来。 疯狂的金价 过去一周，国际现货金价连续创出新高，不断突破4200美元、4250美元、4300美元关口，一路刷 新新高，让人措手不及。10月18日，记者走访深圳水贝，金价为988元/克，而9月初水贝市场的金 饰克价还一度低至796元左右。短短一个多月，金价大幅上涨，让许多年轻人望而却步。 "去年水贝金价才500多元，当时怎么没多买点！""在深圳待了好几年，居然没想着囤点黄金，现在 真是高攀不起了"……采访中，不少年轻"淘金客"都流露出类似的懊悔。一位90后女生坦言，现在的 金价让她十分纠结，既担心买了就跌，又怕再等下去价格更高。 此外，还有不少散客是前来挑选婚嫁"三金"的准新人。对他们而言，"三金"虽是刚需，但随着金价 上涨，预算也越发紧张，许多人不再执着于 ...

Core Insights - The first day of the Diwali festival in India saw a significant decline in gold jewelry sales due to soaring gold prices, with consumers opting for coins and bars instead [2] - The demand for gold jewelry dropped nearly 30% compared to the same period last year, as reported by the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council [2] - Overall gold sales during the Diwali festival's first day decreased by 10% to 15% year-on-year, but total sales revenue increased significantly due to high gold prices [2] Industry Data - On the day before Diwali, the gold price reached 12,700.8 Indian Rupees per gram (approximately 1,029 RMB), marking an increase of over 60% compared to last year's Diwali gold price [2]