Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trends of the three major oils are quite different. The Malaysian crude palm oil futures have fallen to an 8 - month low, and the Dalian palm oil has also declined due to increased supply, weak exports, and pressure from the falling crude oil market. However, the lower price of palm oil compared to soybean oil may improve future exports and limit the price decline. Technically oversold conditions may also lead to price rebounds, and in the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate narrowly again. The expected increase in imported soybeans may ease the tight supply of soybean oil and potentially lower the basis in the future. Rapeseed oil is strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decline in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and US biodiesel policies [7] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil, spot 09 + 400, June - September 09 + 300; Third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 150. In May, the basis quotes of rapeseed oil traders in East China and Guangxi: Third - grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09 + 0. For 24 - degree palm oil in East China, from May 20 to June 15, the delivery price is P09 + 480 yuan/ton, and from June 25 to July 25, it is P09 + 400 yuan/ton [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. Reuters estimates that in April, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.62 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports were 1.1 million tons, consumption was 338,000 tons, and inventory was 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimates that production was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.13 million tons, imports were 70,000 tons, consumption was 325,000 tons, and inventory was 1.79 million tons [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated at 1.73 million tons, a 24.62% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimated April production at 1.62 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons, exports at 1.1 million tons, consumption at 338,000 tons, and inventory at 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate [10][19][21][26][27]

Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 7984, opening price 7946, highest price 7974, lowest price 7884, closing price 7914, down 70 (-0.88%), trading volume 748717, open interest 426121, open interest change 58556 [7] - P2505: Previous settlement price 8392, opening price 8300, highest price 8310, lowest price 8204, closing price 8204, down 188 (-2.24%), trading volume 128, open interest 340, open interest change -108 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7752, opening price 7728, highest price 7814, lowest price 7726, closing price 7786, up 34 (0.44%), trading volume 356383, open interest 602826, open interest change 18909 [7] - Y2505: Previous settlement price 7884, opening price 8140, highest price 8140, lowest price 7620, closing price 7900, up 16 (0.20%), trading volume 34, open interest 1198 [7] - O1509: Previous settlement price 9242, opening price 9186, highest price 9362, lowest price 9180, closing price 9335, up 93 (1.01%), trading volume 435548, open interest 302424, open interest change 21448 [7] - O1505: Previous settlement price 9208, opening price 9195, highest price 9330, lowest price 9193, closing price 9310, up 102 (1.11%), trading volume 135, open interest 1326, open interest change -132 [7] - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil, spot 09+400, June - September 09+300; Third-grade rapeseed oil 09+150 [7] - May East China; Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: Third-grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09+0; East China 24-degree palm oil, May 20 - June 15 delivery P09+480 yuan/ton, June 25 - July 25 delivery P09+400 yuan/ton [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil futures market: Despite being in an oversold state technically, fundamental negative factors will continue to affect the market. As the main palm oil producing areas enter the peak production period, inventory will rise significantly in the coming months, and palm oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. The decline in crude oil makes the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, and the soybean-palm oil price spread is gradually returning to normal [8] - Soybean oil: There is still an expectation of a large number of imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the tight supply of soybean oil is expected to ease, with the possibility of a later basis decline [8] - Rapeseed oil: It is greatly affected by import policies. The forecast of future purchase shipments is significantly lower year-on-year, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated to be 1.73 million tons by MPOA, a 24.62% increase month-on-month. Peninsular Malaysia's production increased by 28.06% month-on-month, Sabah's by 24.07%, Sarawak's by 11.37%, and East Malaysia's by 20.76% [9] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month-on-month [9] - Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [9] - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, China's domestic soybean oil inventory was 581,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons (2.92%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.322 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons (1.66%) from last week. Coastal inventory was 516,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons (3.48%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.51%) from last week [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][25]

Report Information - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Affected by the decline of international crude oil and BMD palm oil during the May Day holiday, the domestic oils and fats sector was weak, with palm oil leading the decline. The high - frequency data from the Malaysian palm oil producing areas showed an expectation of increased production and inventory, which suppressed the market. The decline in crude oil made the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, causing the center of palm oil prices to shift down, and the soybean - palm oil price spread gradually returned to normal. The expected large volume of imported soybeans in the future may ease the tight supply of soybean oil, and the basis may decline later. Rapeseed oil was strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decrease in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: In the East China region, the price of first - grade soybean oil was y2509 + 280 from June to September; in the South China region, traders' quotes for rapeseed oil were third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 40 - 50. The basis quote in East China decreased, with the port price of 24 - degree palm oil at P09 + 580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil faced downward pressure due to expected increased production and inventory in Malaysia and unclear B40 demand. The soybean - palm oil price spread normalized. The supply of soybean oil was expected to ease, and the basis might decline. Rapeseed oil was strong due to import policy impacts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 28.06% month - on - month, in Sabah by 24.07%, in Sarawak by 11.37%, and in East Malaysia by 20.76%. The Southern Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month - on - month [8]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Forecasts**: Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: From April 1 to 25, 2025, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.95 million tons, higher than 9.42 million tons a week ago. The average daily soybean export volume so far in April was 762,052 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.1%. The average export price of soybeans so far in April was $389.8 per ton, an 8.9% decrease from the same period last year. ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in April 2025 would reach 13.847 million tons, 400,000 tons or 2.9% higher than the 13.452 million tons in April last year. In the first four months of this year, Brazil's soybean exports were 40.42 million tons, approaching half of last year's annual export volume of 97.3 million tons [8][9][15]. 3.3 Data Overview - **US Crop Planting Progress**: As of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting progress in the US was 30%, compared with 18% the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 23%. The corn planting progress was 40%, compared with 24% the previous week, 35% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39% [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

2025/5/6 09:55 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松，棕榈油价格下⾏ 20250506 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松，棕榈油价格下行 20250506 2025年05月06日 07:47 上海 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 1/16 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í i | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ιί | 国际供需 | | 1. | 马棕4月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 8 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | 3. | FOB 报价 ... | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 2/16 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

MPOB 4月月报前瞻：4月马棕油库存预计为179万吨 金十期货5月5日讯，据外媒报道，路透调查显示，预计马来西亚2025年4月棕榈油库存为179万吨，环比 3月份增长14.8%；产量预计为162万吨，比3月份增长16.9%；出口量预计为110万吨，比3月份增长 9.7%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Short - term international crude oil prices are volatile, and dry weather in the US and Europe may bring bullish speculation. Short - term oil and fat prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Content Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9230, 9030, and 8980 respectively, down 100 from April 28 [1]. - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged from April 28 at 8220, 8370, and 8270 respectively [1]. - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9370, 9400, and 9530 respectively, down 30 from April 28 [1]. Futures Data - **Soybean - Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was - 340, up 20 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was 1522, up 3 from April 28 [1]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 0 [1]. - **Soybean Oil Warehouse Receipts**: On April 29, 2025, there were 4005, an increase of 970 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 1357 [1]. High - frequency Data in April - **Production**: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 9.11% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area up 7.69% and oil extraction rate up 0.27% [2]. - **Exports**: According to AmSpec, exports from April 1 - 25, 2025 reached 92.39 tons, up 14.75% month - on - month; ITS reported 95.10 tons, up 13.8%; SGS reported 70.32 tons, up 3.6% [2]. Key Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress**: As of April 19, 2025, the harvest progress of Brazil's 24/25 soybean was 92.5%, compared to 88.3% the previous week and 83.2% the same period last year [2]. - **US Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - producing areas will be high, which may delay new - crop sowing. As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, higher than the historical average of 5% [2]. - **Trade Relations**: The evolution of China - Canada trade relations is still uncertain, and Canadian rapeseed is a key variable [2]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic available inventory is limited, and subsequent rapeseed imports may tighten, and imported rapeseed oil cannot fill the gap caused by the tight rapeseed supply [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the impact of the tariff war gradually fades, the oil and fat market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term prices remaining volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil may weaken [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on April 28, 2025, were 7814, 8174, and 9333 respectively, with price drops. The basis of each variety showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 76, 48, and 187 respectively, with changes of 0, 4, and 32 [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (360), 1519, and 1159 respectively, with changes of 82, (53), and 29. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62, with a change of 0.0001 [4]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of (470), and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1080, with a negative profit of (1189) [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 16th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 65.0, 38.4, and 79.9 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: There are rumors that the EPA may postpone the update of RVO standards until the second half of the year [6]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: Affected by US biodiesel rumors, palm oil futures prices fell by over 2%. As of April 25, 2025, the commercial inventory decreased, and the import profit deficit widened. It is expected to maintain a tight inventory, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations [6]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The soybean crushing volume increased last week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the inventory may gradually increase, and the basis may weaken. The short - term price will fluctuate, and YP09 can be considered to be expanded at low prices [6][8]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The crushing volume of rapeseed increased last week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The import profit deficit narrowed. The short - term price will fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term oil and fat prices will remain volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive factors, while palm oil may weaken [10]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Expand YP09 at low prices [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the historical trends of basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oil and fat varieties [13][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the reduction of macro - shocks, the oil and fat market has returned to fundamental trading. The loosening of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs has improved the sentiment of the oil and oilseed sector. Coupled with the recovery of crude oil prices from a low level, palm oil has stopped falling. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely [8][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Abstract - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and rebounded. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.99% to close at 7,934 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.00% to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 3.09% to close at 9,506 yuan/ton [5][31]. - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 19.88%, and Malaysian palm oil rose 2.08%. As of the week of April 22, about 21% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 23% in the previous week and 20% in the same period last year. US soybeans rose 1.19% this week [6][7][31]. - The domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely. The inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the soybean oil inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in many years due to low soybean crushing volume. The palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to stop falling and start to rise, and the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel limits the increase in palm oil prices. The rapeseed oil fundamentals are relatively stable and unable to break the current sideways consolidation state [8][32]. b. Spot Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,470 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past five years [9]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [10]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - As of April 18, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 69,000 tons to 730,000 tons. On April 23, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 364,000 tons [16]. - As of April 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,567,690 tons [19]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [22]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [25]. d. Comprehensive Analysis - The content of the comprehensive analysis is basically the same as that in the abstract, including the price changes of futures contracts, production and drought information, and the outlook for the oil and fat market [31][32].