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【SH周报】宏观情绪退坡近端烧碱现货崩塌-20250808
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has declined, and the spot price of near - term caustic soda has collapsed. The upside space of caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, the overall demand is weak, and both liquid and flake caustic soda have seen a week - on - week inventory build - up. The caustic soda price has been falling this week, mainly due to weakening demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product [3][6]. - For different market participants, corresponding hedging strategies are recommended. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options; traders looking to build inventory can sell put options and buy call options; terminal customers worried about price increases can buy call options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - China's caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in China has remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda is 847 yuan/ton (converted to 2646.875 yuan/dry ton), and the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has declined [11]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi are presented, with daily - updated data [37]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions are analyzed, including the differences between Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, and Jiangsu - Shandong, with daily - updated data [37]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Supply**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North, Northwest, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the estimated domestic caustic soda production is 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04% [55]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance this week, while some are still under maintenance or have planned maintenance. This week's maintenance is expected to affect a total of 27,950 tons of caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity [60]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: The operation status of flake caustic soda units of various manufacturers is reported, including normal operation, reduced operation, and maintenance [64]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The overall supply - demand imbalance in the south has not improved significantly. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23% [67]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, remaining unchanged from last week [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate in the Yangtze River Delta is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand in the printing and dyeing industry remains weak [67]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%. The inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65% [80]. 3.6 Valuation - **Cost Side**: The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen [84]. - **Profit**: This week, the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry at the spot end has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost - side price and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price [85]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method, and the comprehensive profit of the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [97].
烧碱开工环比上升,库存持续累积
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:10
氯碱日报 | 2025-08-08 烧碱开工环比上升,库存持续累积 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5046元/吨(-5);华东基差-176元/吨(-15);华南基差-126元/吨(-15)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4870元/吨(-20);华南电石法报价4920元/吨(-20)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格595元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润14元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨(+113);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨(+27);PVC出口利润5.3美元/吨(-4.7)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存34.5万吨(-1.2);PVC社会库存44.8万吨(+2.1);PVC电石法开工率77.83%(+3.41%); PVC乙烯法开工率77.55%(+7.31%);PVC开工率77.75%(+4.49%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量85.4万吨(+5.8)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2413元/吨(-61);山东32%液碱基差87元/吨(-2)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价800元/吨(-20);山东50%液碱 ...
SH周报:宏观情绪退坡近端烧碱现货崩塌-20250808
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The price of caustic soda has been falling due to weak demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product. [3][6] - For different market participants, corresponding option trading strategies are recommended to manage inventory and procurement risks. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted downward, with poor trading for high - concentration caustic soda. [11] - The report provides price data for different regions and specifications of caustic soda, including 32 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; 50 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; and 99 - flake caustic soda in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [12][20][27] 2. Spread 2.1 Model Spread - The report shows the price spreads between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. [37] 2.2 Regional Spread - It presents the regional price spreads of 32 - alkali (Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong), 50 - alkali (Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong), and 99 - flake caustic soda (Shandong - Shaanxi, Shandong - Inner Mongolia). [37] 3. Supply 3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the domestic caustic soda production is expected to be 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. [55] 3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many enterprises' chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance or are in the process of maintenance. This week, the impact of maintenance on production is smaller than last week. The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali plants, including those in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu. [55][60] 3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The report details the operation status of flake caustic soda plants of various manufacturers, including normal operation, reduced load, and maintenance. [64] 4. Downstream Demand 4.1 Alumina - This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The supply - demand imbalance in different regions still exists. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23%. [67] 4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, the same as last week, and the domestic viscose plants are operating stably. [67] 4.3 Printing and Dyeing Industry - As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Yangtze River region is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand is still weak, and it is expected that the demand will gradually pick up after mid - September. [67] 5. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda plants is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65%. [80] 6. Valuation 6.1 Cost - The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen. [84] 6.2 Profit - This week, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost side and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price. [85] 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, and the production profits of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [97]
山东主力下游采购价下调,烧碱走势趋弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:22
氯碱日报 | 2025-08-07 山东主力下游采购价下调,烧碱走势趋弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5051元/吨(+9);华东基差-161元/吨(+31);华南基差-111元/吨(+21)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4890元/吨(+40);华南电石法报价4940元/吨(+30)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格595元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润14元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨(+113);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨(+27);PVC出口利润10.0美元/吨(-2.7)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存34.5万吨(-1.2);PVC社会库存44.8万吨(+2.1);PVC电石法开工率74.42%(-4.79%); PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%(+3.29%);PVC开工率73.26%(-2.55%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量85.4万吨(+5.8)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2474元/吨(-32);山东32%液碱基差89元/吨(+32)。 策略 PVC 单边:观望。 跨期:V09-01跨期逢高做 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250807
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:29
Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - **Methanol**: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - **Urea**: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].
国投期货化工日报-20250806
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 11:06
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bearish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and provides corresponding investment ratings based on these factors [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average. Low prices, improved downstream product profits, and reduced supply due to unexpected shutdowns of local PDH plants supported the price [2] - Polyolefin futures had a narrow - range intraday fluctuation. Polyethylene's short - term production is expected to increase, with both supply and demand rising recently. Polypropylene's prices are stable, and some offers are tentatively raised, but downstream procurement is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, but port inventory decreased. There is an expected improvement in supply - demand in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - Styrene futures prices declined. The expected output of a new plant may have a negative impact, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak [3] Polyester - PTA prices rebounded. New plant production and increased output from existing plants pressured the supply, but production cuts may boost the market. PX may face demand decline if PTA production cuts increase [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded. Supply is expected to continue to rise, and there is an expected increase in demand [5] - Short fiber prices followed the raw materials and sales improved. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the industry [5] - Bottle chip's low - start operation led to stable inventory, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly. Coastal olefin plants have low operation rates, and ports are expected to accumulate inventory. In the long - term, the approaching peak - season demand should be monitored [6] - Urea market sentiment cooled. The Indian tender price boosted the spot market, but short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fluctuated strongly. Cost support increased, but supply increased and demand was weak, so short - term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated weakly. Comprehensive profit improved, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated. High - price resistance led to a downward shift. Supply is high, and the long - term market is weak, but prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low [8] - Glass prices fluctuated. Mid - stream sales led to a decline in spot prices, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [8]
情绪提振,PVC盘面止跌反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 06:01
氯碱日报 | 2025-08-06 情绪提振,PVC盘面止跌反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5042元/吨(+61);华东基差-192元/吨(-41);华南基差-132元/吨(-51)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4850元/吨(+20);华南电石法报价4910元/吨(+10)。 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2506元/吨(-23);山东32%液碱基差57元/吨(+23)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格595元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润14元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨(+113);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨(+27);PVC出口利润12.7美元/吨(+4.8)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价820元/吨(+0);山东50%液碱报价1290元/吨(-30)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存34.5万吨(-1.2);PVC社会库存44.8万吨(+2.1);PVC电石法开工率74.42%(-4.79%); PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%(+3.29%);PVC开工率73.26%(-2.55%)。 上游生产利润:山东烧碱单品种利 ...
氯碱化工: 氯碱化工第十一届董事会第十七次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-05 16:10
Group 1 - The board of directors of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. held its 17th meeting of the 11th session on August 5, 2025, with all 7 participating directors voting [1][2] - The board approved the proposal to amend the company's articles of association and related procedural rules, as well as to abolish the supervisory board, with a unanimous vote of 7 in favor [1][2] - The proposal will be submitted for approval at the shareholders' meeting [1] Group 2 - The board also approved the amendment of the implementation rules for various special committees of the board, with a unanimous vote of 7 in favor [2] - The proposal to amend the General Manager's work rules was also approved unanimously with 7 votes in favor [2] - Additionally, the board approved the establishment of a management system for the resignation of directors, with a unanimous vote of 7 in favor [2]
氯碱化工: 董事会议事规则
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-05 16:10
上海氯碱化工股份有限公司 第一章 总则 第一条 为了进一步规范董事会的议事方式和决策程序,促使董事和 董事会有效地履行其职责,提高董事会规范运作和科学决策水平,根据《公 司法》《证券法》《上市公司治理准则》《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》 《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》和《上 海证券交易所股票上市规则》以及《上海氯碱化工股份有限公司章程》 (以下简称"公司章程")等有关规定,制订本规则。 第二条 董事会是公司的决策机构和股东会的常设执行机构,对股东 会负责。 第二章 董事会的组成及其职权 第三条 董事会由七名董事组成,设董事长一人,独立董事三人。董 事长主持董事会工作。董事会秘书处理董事会具体事务。 第四条 董事会行使下列职权: (一)负责召集股东会,并向大会报告工作; (二)执行股东会的决议; (三)决定公司的经营计划和投资方案; (四)审议批准公司的年度财务预算方案、决算方案; (五)制订公司的利润分配方案和弥补亏损方案; (六)制订公司增加或者减少注册资本、发行债券或其他证券及上市方 案; (七)拟订公司重大收购、收购本公司股票或者合并、分立、解散及变 更公司形式的方案; ( ...
英力特:关于变更投资者热线信息的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-05 13:09
(文章来源:证券日报) 证券日报网讯 8月5日晚间,英力特发布公告称,公司根据办公需要对投资者热线进行了调整,新的投 资者热线为0952-3820080,传真号码调整为0952-3820083。 ...