Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the US-China trade tensions, on various asset classes. Group 1: Economic Environment and Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant decline in inflation, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2] - The interest rates for one-year deposits at major banks have dropped to 0.9%, leading to a diminishing return on traditional savings, which poses challenges for individuals seeking to grow their wealth through savings alone [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a highly uncertain global environment, advocating for a strategy of not putting all eggs in one basket [2][3] Group 2: Asset Classes Overview - A-shares, gold, government bonds, and US Treasuries are identified as the core asset classes for domestic investors, each with distinct risk-return profiles [3] - A-shares are seen as having optimistic potential, contingent on effective domestic policy support for the economy, while the bond market is expected to have limited upside and increased volatility compared to 2024 [3][4] - Gold is recommended for accumulation rather than speculation, as its price may face short-term pressures despite having long-term upward potential due to factors like a weakening dollar and potential tariff increases [3][10] Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The US-China trade conflict is identified as the primary "black swan" event affecting the A-share market, with significant market reactions observed following escalations in trade tensions [4][8] - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance post-trade conflict, recent data indicates a stabilization in manufacturing and external trade, contributing to a recovery in A-share prices [6][8] - The article notes that the market's future performance will depend heavily on the resilience of financial stocks and the overall economic outlook [6][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The perception of gold as an investment has become more complex, with recent price fluctuations reflecting heightened sensitivity to market conditions and geopolitical developments [10][11] - The article highlights that while gold prices surged earlier in the year, the current market sentiment is cautious, with predictions of potential declines in gold prices due to stronger US economic indicators [10][14] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, particularly as a hedge against the declining credibility of the dollar, but short-term volatility is expected [14][16] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with lower returns expected in 2025 compared to the previous year, making it more suitable for tactical trading rather than buy-and-hold strategies [17][19] - The article suggests that investors should focus on yield movements in the 10-year government bond market to inform their trading decisions, as the relationship between bond prices and yields is inversely correlated [21][23] - The US Treasury market is under scrutiny due to rising yields, which are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens, indicating a need for careful investment strategies [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese equity market, highlighting a shift in global perception of Chinese assets and the potential for A-shares to catch up with the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the coming months to a year [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recent months have shown a recovery in the Chinese market, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding quickly after initial shocks from tariff disputes [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 27.64% from September 24, 2024, to May 31, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index has risen by 19.53% during the same period, indicating a stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four key sectors are highlighted for future investment: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries [4][5]. - AI is seen as a core direction for global technological development, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and related hardware [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow, driven by advancements in research and development within Chinese companies [7]. - The consumer sector is viewed as having no clear distinction between "new" and "old" consumption, with opportunities arising from cultural exports as China continues to grow as a super economy [4]. - The power battery sector remains promising due to its vast market potential across various applications, including energy storage and robotics [5]. Group 3: Healthcare Sector Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical market is anticipated to be a long-term trend, with China's pharmaceutical capabilities aligning with global standards [7]. - Investment opportunities are focused on companies in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and high-value consumables, with a preference for firms with strong clinical and sales capabilities [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The future performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to domestic demand, which is influenced by residents' income expectations [9]. - Recent consumer subsidies in sectors like automotive and home appliances have created opportunities, and sustained policy support could further drive growth [10]. Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to play a crucial role in overcoming current economic challenges, with AI development projected to continue for decades [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in smart driving and humanoid robots, with the latter expected to see production growth in specific industries [12]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Resource Insights - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, with opportunities for Chinese brands to compete globally due to improved product performance and stability [16]. - Resource-related companies are also highlighted, as limited supply supports pricing and profitability [16]. Group 7: Financial Sector Outlook - The banking sector has shown resilience, with improved performance attributed to better-than-expected corporate conditions outside the real estate sector [18]. - As the economic outlook improves, expectations for the banking sector are also anticipated to recover [18]. Group 8: Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The white liquor industry is undergoing adjustments primarily due to inventory cycles and operational challenges, with potential for recovery as internal adjustments take place [21].

Group 1 - The recent overseas economy can be understood as a combination of "fiscal expansion dividends" and "de-globalization costs," leading to a relatively mild global economic "slowdown zone" in the short term, with limited risks of rapid changes in growth trends [1][6][30] - The optimal strategy for the Chinese economy is to focus on internal growth dynamics to enhance risk resistance, with broad-based growth characteristics improving macroeconomic stability and asset price stability [2][8][37] - The effectiveness of domestic policies initiated in the last quarter of the previous year peaked in the first half of this year, with signs of economic slowdown emerging by the end of the second quarter [3][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction rates are a key variable to observe, with recent performance in materials like asphalt and cement indicating weaker financing compared to narrow infrastructure growth, suggesting a need for local government investment to accelerate [4][11][12] - The necessity to optimize supply has significantly increased due to slowing exports, with "anti-involution" policies expected to improve supply-demand ratios in key industries [5][13][14] - The framework suggests that during periods of actual growth in the "slowdown zone," it is advisable to reduce configurations based on win rates and increase those based on odds, focusing on high dividend, low volatility sectors [6][15][16] Group 3 - The supply-demand ratio is crucial for determining whether the fundamentals can improve, with recent years showing a trend of imbalance leading to lower price centers and higher real interest rates [7][16][17] - Improving the supply-demand ratio requires achieving rebalancing across three sectors: local government investment normalization, rationalization of incremental investments through anti-involution, and stabilizing household balance sheets [8][18][56] - The global competition hinges on who can provide growth certainty, with the U.S. focusing on permanent tariffs and tax cuts, while China leverages its strong supply chain and large market space [9][19][20] Group 4 - The mid-term impact on major asset classes includes the regionalization of global supply chains and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, affecting commodities, gold, and alternative assets [21][22] - The framework may overlook risks such as uncertainties in external trade relations and geopolitical issues, which could complicate the impact on major asset classes [22][22]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with various sectors showing positive performance, particularly in technology and healthcare, while the Hong Kong stock market is showing mixed results [1][4]. Market Performance - The overall market has risen, closing at 4.9 stars, with large, mid, and small-cap stocks all experiencing similar gains [1][2]. - Growth style stocks are performing strongly, while value style stocks show slight fluctuations [3]. Sector Analysis - Technology, ChiNext, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors have seen significant increases [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline after a previous rise, with its dividend index continuing to increase [4]. Investment Strategies - The "Yuexinbao" investment strategy has reached a historical high, with plans to adjust the stock-bond ratio [6][7]. - The "Yuexinbao" and similar strategies benefit from declining deposit rates, leading to higher returns in 2023 compared to previous years [8]. Return Sources - Returns are derived from three main components: 1. **Equity Portion**: Focused on value style stocks, contributing stable returns through dividends and long-term price appreciation [9][11]. 2. **Bond Portion**: Emphasizes short to medium-term bonds due to current low yields in long-term bonds [12]. 3. **Rebalancing**: Adjusting the portfolio to maintain target allocations, which can enhance returns during market fluctuations [13][18]. Historical Performance - A rebalancing opportunity occurred in February 2024, where the "Yuexinbao" strategy saw a significant recovery, with stock assets increasing by approximately 30% from February to June [19][21]. Dividend Index Valuation - The current valuation of various dividend indices indicates some are still undervalued, but they are approaching normal valuation levels [29].

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Core Insights - The report proposes a dynamic allocation strategy based on the value range of converging stocks in four major sectors: technology, gold, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, validated through empirical analysis for risk control and return enhancement [3][9]. - From September 1, 2024, to June 11, 2025, the ETF portfolio based on converging stocks achieved a return of 29.94%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.34, and a maximum drawdown of 5.17%, significantly outperforming an equal-weighted ETF allocation strategy [3][40]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The converging stock for the technology sector is Jinghe Integrated, utilizing a 3.6x PS valuation model, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.93 during the backtest period, effectively controlling risk and outperforming the Sci-Tech 50 Index [3][9][14]. - The strategy based on Jinghe Integrated yielded a return of 48.49% from September 1, 2024, to June 11, 2025, compared to the Sci-Tech 50 Index's return of 41.31% [14][15]. Group 2: Gold Sector - The converging stock for the gold sector is Chifeng Gold, based on a 16.2x PE valuation model, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.38. Although the strategy did not outperform the index, it significantly reduced drawdown risk [3][23][24]. - The strategy effectively controlled drawdown during a strong performance period for gold stocks, despite not beating the index [24]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - The converging stock for the pharmaceutical sector is East China Pharmaceutical, using a 16.3x PE valuation model, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.83, effectively controlling drawdown while enhancing returns [3][31]. - The strategy based on East China Pharmaceutical managed to improve returns during a period of significant volatility in the innovative drug index [31]. Group 4: Consumer Sector - The converging stock for the consumer sector is Kweichow Moutai, with a bottom valuation of approximately 18.5x PE based on 2024 expected net profit, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.7 [3][35]. - The strategy effectively controlled drawdown during a volatile period for the consumer sector [35]. Group 5: Equal-Weighted Strategy - The equal-weighted ETF portfolio from September 1, 2024, to June 11, 2025, yielded a return of 29.31%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.3 and a maximum drawdown of 15.48% [39]. - The converging stock strategy yielded a similar return of 29.94% but with a significantly improved Sharpe ratio of 2.34 and a reduced maximum drawdown of 5.17%, indicating effective risk control [40].

上 半 年 ， A 股 IPO 募 集 总 额 达 373.55 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 14.96%； 港 股 IPO 融 资 规 模 达 974.25 亿 元 ， 同 比 激 增 688.56%。 作者： 牛钰 封图：图虫创意 从年初的"松动"信号到年中节点，IPO（首次公开发行）市场节奏和主线的变化一直牵动着资本市 场的神经。回头来看，在政策优化和市场复苏的双向加持下，2025年IPO市场的活跃度骤起，融资 项目与规模显著回暖。 Wind数据显示，截至6月30日，上半年A股共有51只新股上市，同比增加7家，IPO募集总额达 373.55亿元，同比增长14.96%。其中，9只新股募资金额超过10亿元，中策橡胶（603049.SH）首 发募资金额最高，达40.66亿元。 港股IPO市场更是火热"出圈"，上半年共有43家企业成功上市，IPO融资规模达1067.13亿港元（约 合人民币974.25亿元），同比激增688.56%。按交易所排名，港交所的IPO融资规模位居全球榜 首，居于其后的纳斯达克交易所在上半年有79宗IPO（剔除特殊目的收购公司），筹资约90.74亿 美元（约合人民币650.32亿元）。 ...

Market Overview - On July 2, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, closing at 24,221.41 points, with a net inflow of HKD 5.036 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading was HKD 128.967 billion, with a net buy of HKD 5.036 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a total transaction amount of HKD 81.984 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.279 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a total transaction amount of HKD 46.983 billion, with a net buy of HKD 3.757 billion [1] Active Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading, Alibaba-W had the highest transaction amount at HKD 3.170 billion, followed by Chongqing Iron & Steel and Xiaomi Group-W with transaction amounts of HKD 2.929 billion and HKD 2.827 billion, respectively [1] - In terms of net buy amounts, the Yingfu Fund led with a net buy of HKD 1.674 billion, while Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount at HKD 788 million, closing down by 0.36% [1] Shenzhen Stock Exchange Active Stocks - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading, Alibaba-W also topped the transaction amount at HKD 2.407 billion, followed by Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W with transaction amounts of HKD 1.589 billion and HKD 1.582 billion, respectively [2] - The stock with the highest net buy was Innovent Biologics, with a net buy of HKD 651 million, closing up by 1.15%, while Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount at HKD 945 million, also closing down by 0.36% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The interview with Nomura's chief economist Lu Ting highlights the need for structural reforms to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market in China, emphasizing the importance of improving income distribution and social security systems [2][4][7]. Consumption Insights - The "old-for-new" policy has contributed to a 6.4% year-on-year increase in China's retail sales in May, marking a new high for 2024 [3]. - However, Lu Ting warns that this policy is a temporary measure and may lead to a decrease in future demand for durable goods [3]. - To sustain consumption growth, there is a need for more comprehensive methods beyond the "old-for-new" initiative, such as enhancing subsidies and expanding the range of subsidized products [3]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate sector is crucial for China's domestic demand and is currently in its fifth year of decline, with a 10% annualized decrease and a 22% drop in new housing starts [7]. - The stability of the real estate market is essential for consumer confidence, as a significant portion of household wealth is tied to real estate [4][7]. - Traditional measures like interest rate cuts and lifting purchase restrictions have been largely exhausted, necessitating a focus on clearing real estate market debts [8][9]. Recommendations for Policy Changes - Lu Ting suggests that the government should allow failing developers to go bankrupt while providing support to viable ones, ensuring that debts are repaid and pre-sold properties are delivered [8][9]. - He advocates for a reform of the social security system, particularly increasing rural pension levels from an average of 243 yuan/month to 400-500 yuan/month, which could enhance consumption among low-income groups [4][6]. Local Initiatives - The "Su Chao" initiative is highlighted as a successful example of local efforts to stimulate demand by creating favorable consumption environments [5][6].