Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is neutral [1][3] 2) Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the USDA's April supply - demand report didn't significantly adjust South American data. Brazil's soybean harvest is bountiful, and the large quantity of arrivals starting from April will bring supply pressure to China. However, the report raised the US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US domestic soybean oil consumption, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean prices. The impact of tariff policies on prices is significant, and future impacts need continuous attention to macro - policies. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean premium remains firm, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is large, and short - term downstream supply isn't tight. Policy changes and domestic soybean arrivals should be closely watched [2] - For the corn market, in China, farmers have mostly sold their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, the inventories at North and South ports are high, the procurement of feed enterprises in the sales areas is average, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. The impact of international trade policy changes should be closely monitored, and corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2721 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3210 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazilian farmers have sold over half of the 2024/25 soybean output, at least 86 million tons. The premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly last weekend. On April 14, the CNF premium for imported Brazilian soybeans from May - July was 158 - 182 cents/bu, with a fluctuation of - 5 - 6 cents/bu from the previous day [1] - **Market Analysis** - The USDA report didn't adjust South American data much. Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and the large - scale arrival will bring supply pressure. The report raised US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US soybean oil consumption, and CBOT soybean prices rebounded. Tariff policies change rapidly and have a great impact on prices. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the premium is firm, the future arrival volume is large, and short - term supply isn't tight [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2267 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13%; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.08% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The corn harvest in Argentina accelerated slightly last week, advancing 2.8%. As of April 8, the harvest progress was 23.1%, and the harvested output was 13.6 million tons. The USDA predicted Argentina's 2024/25 corn output to be 50 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and last year. Ukraine raised the minimum export prices of wheat and corn in April [3][4] - **Market Analysis** - In China, farmers have sold most of their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, port inventories are high, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. Corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations, and international trade policy changes should be closely monitored [5]

2025年04月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少 | 2 | | 豆粕：美元走弱、美豆偏强，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：关税事件，盘面偏强、收复前期跌幅 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡下行 | 7 | | 棉花：需求或继续限制棉价反弹动能 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：逐步回归产业逻辑 | 11 | | 花生：关注反套机会 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹 豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu028807@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,748 | 涨跌幅 -0.07% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,760 | 涨跌幅 0.14% | | -- ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 4 月 10 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/4/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | | 8200 | 10 | 0.12% | 63 | -70.28% | 573 | -16.35% | | PK510 | | 8170 | 78 | 0.95% | 14,147 | 10.85% | 32,940 | 1.49% | | PK601 | | 8162 | 76 | 0.93% | 279 | -43.18% | 1,611 | 8.34% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米 | 玉米 | 5 月合约减仓调整，受现货拖累 5 月和 7 月合约联动下行，基差回归。 | 震荡偏强 | | 玉米 | | 5 月合约多空主力继续向 7 月合约移仓，7 月成为主力合约。现货市场方面， | | | 关税上调玉米进口成本提升。虽然近期期货市场未继续上涨，但从产区报价来看 | | | | | 相对坚挺，部分深加工也开始上调玉米收购价。继续关注关税消息对盘面的影响， | | | | | 虽然加征关税的实质性影响可控，但或支撑市场心态。华北地区玉米价格整体维 | | | | | 持稳定，个别地区价格窄幅调整，部分企业补涨，但变化幅度有限。山东深加工 | | | | | 玉米到货量增加，基本满足生产需求，价格维持稳定。河北、河南部分深加工价 | | | | | 格窄幅上调 | | 10-30 元/吨。销区市场玉米价格整体稳定为主，钦州港下调 20 元/ | | | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 8 日 【粕类日报】贸易影响增加 粕类继续走强 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/4/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | 3127 | 103 | 天津 | 360 | 370 | -10 | | 0 5 豆粕 | 2973 | 8 8 | 东莞 | 110 | 120 | -10 | | 0 9 | 3164 | 108 | 张家港 | 200 | 220 | -20 | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 0 1 | 2457 | 100 | 南通 | -125 | - 8 | -117 | | 菜粕 0 5 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米主力 2505 合约减仓调整，现货回落，5 月合约多空主力向 7 月合约移 | 震荡 | | | 仓。周初，在北港玉米库存下降的利好因素影响下，玉米 9 月和 11 月合约企稳 | | | | 上行，远月领涨、近月跟涨，7 月合约在重要支撑位 2300 元/吨整数关口企稳， | | | | 短期价格企稳上行。近期，东北玉米价格整体偏弱，港口及深加工玉米价格下调 | | | | 都对价格有不利影响，但产区余粮整体偏少对行情也有一定的支撑。华北地区玉 | | | | 米价格整体维持稳定，个别企业价格窄幅调整，主流价格维持稳定。目前山东深 | | | 玉米 | 加工主流价格维持在 2250-2340 元/吨，贸易商对短期上涨预期减弱，在利润较 | | | | 为可观的情况下，以逢高出货策略为主。整体来看 ，玉米主力 2505 合约自 3 月 | | | | 中旬的 2336 元/吨的价格高点持续回落近两周时间，5 月期价下跌至 2240 元/吨 | | | | 的价格 ...

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西天气，原糖短期震荡整理 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-03 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...

市场风险顾问桧垣元一郎分析指出，"投机者已开始平仓菜籽的买入头寸"，并表示"价格有可能下跌到 550~550加元区间"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 加拿大对中国制造EV等加征关税，作为反制，中国将对从加拿大进口的农产品等加征关税…… 食用油原料菜籽的价格急剧下跌。作为国际指标的洲际交易所的加拿大菜籽期货3月13日以每吨552.9加 元收盘。与前一周周末的收盘价相比，下降了12%，创下2024年9月中旬以来的低点。 中国政府将从3月20日起，对从加拿大进口的农产品等加征关税。菜籽油将面临100%的追加关税。这是 对加拿大2024年10月起对中国制造的纯电动汽车（EV）等加征关税的反制措施。 加拿大是全球最大的菜籽生产国。自2024年秋季以后，中国政府的反制态度日益加强，包括对加拿大产 菜籽的进口进行反倾销调查等。市场上出现了中国实施反制关税将导致全球菜籽需求减弱的预期。 ...