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玉米:主力2509合约收2297元,短期宜短线交易
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 18:18
Core Viewpoint - Corn futures experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract closing at 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of July 27, 2025, the USDA reported that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same time last year [1] - The favorable rating for U.S. corn indicates a strong production outlook, which continues to exert pressure on international corn prices [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the Northeast production area, trade inventories have dropped to low levels, with traders showing moderate enthusiasm for low-price sales [1] - Grain enterprises have medium to long-term orders but are primarily engaging in essential purchases, leading to a lack of market activity and minimal price fluctuations [1] - The presence of wheat as a substitute, along with policies regarding imported corn auctions and delayed deliveries, has contributed to a cautious overall market sentiment [1] Group 3: Price Trends and Strategy - This week, corn prices declined again, maintaining a generally weak trend [1] - The suggested trading strategy is to focus on short-term transactions [1]
【期货盯盘神器专属文章】CBOT农产品晚间分析:六连阴!美豆期货直逼9.71美元年度低点,多头的“最后防线”还能守住吗?当头号买家中国“隐身”,谁还能拯救美国大豆疲软的需求?
news flash· 2025-08-01 14:46
Core Insights - The article discusses the recent performance of U.S. soybean futures, which have experienced six consecutive days of decline, approaching the annual low of $9.71 per bushel, raising concerns about the sustainability of bullish positions [1] - The demand for U.S. soybeans is under pressure, particularly due to the absence of China, the largest buyer, which has led to questions about who can support the weak demand for American soybeans [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean futures are nearing a critical annual low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The continuous decline in soybean prices highlights the vulnerability of bullish positions in the market [1] - The lack of demand from China poses significant challenges for U.S. soybean exports, impacting overall market sentiment [1]
【期货热点追踪】美豆期货在四个月低点附近徘徊,当美国丰产预期遭遇巴西创纪录收成,大豆还有救吗?当阿根廷小麦也传来丰产喜讯,小麦全球供应过剩将加剧?
news flash· 2025-08-01 13:30
Group 1 - U.S. soybean futures are hovering near a four-month low due to expectations of a bumper crop in the U.S. being met with record harvests in Brazil [1] - The global supply of wheat is expected to increase as Argentina also reports a bumper crop, potentially exacerbating the oversupply situation [1]
新季种植成本驱动玉米期货近强远弱,生猪期货近月锚定现货远月交易预期,鸡蛋期货提前交易蛋价旺季不旺预期
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies for corn, hog, and egg futures in the semi - annual report and regular reports have been verified by the market. For corn, the short - term price is under pressure, the medium - term new - season contract may first decline and then rise; for hogs, the short - term price may be strong, the medium - term supply increase makes continuous price rise difficult, and the long - term supply pressure may weaken if the policy is implemented; for eggs, the short - term price faces correction pressure, the medium - term may have a rebound, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge [8][15][57][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Period Review - In July, corn futures broke through and declined, hog futures rose first and then fell, and egg futures moved down. The strategies in the semi - annual report and regular reports were verified by the market. For example, for corn, the suggestion of taking profit on long positions and short - selling was verified; for hogs, the suggestion of paying attention to selling hedging opportunities was verified; for eggs, the suggestion of paying attention to high - short opportunities was verified [7][8]. - Corn 2509 contract had a monthly decline of 3.78%, closing at 2288 yuan/ton; hog 2509 contract had a monthly increase of 1.48%, closing at 14075 yuan/ton; egg 2506 contract had a monthly decline of 4.53%, closing at 3522 yuan/500 kilograms [11]. 2. Corn Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while the supply pressure of US corn still exists. In China, in the long - term, there is a corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. In the medium - term, the focus is on new - season yield, production, and planting cost. In the short - term, continuous import corn auctions and the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong put pressure on the upward space of the spot price [13]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the hog production capacity has increased, and the supply in the second half of the year is still rising. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - poultry is high, and feed consumption is rigid. Deep - processing consumption is stable and slightly increasing, providing rigid support for corn prices [13]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong makes the spot price weak. In the medium - term, the new - season corn trading drivers are strengthening, and the decline in new - season planting cost puts pressure on the far - month contract expectations. In the long - term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be focused on [14]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the weakness continues to test the lower support. In the medium - term, the new - season contract may first decline and then rise. The 09 contract may continue to fluctuate, with the medium - term support at 2250; the 11 contract is the weakest and short - selling opportunities can be considered, with the medium - term support at 2180 - 2200; the 01 contract can consider low - buying opportunities, with the medium - term support at 2150 - 2200 [15]. 3. Hog Market Analysis Macro and Industry Logic - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices and industrial policy guidance [53]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the background of normalized epidemics after African Swine Fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant short - term fluctuations in hog prices. The large - scale concentration process of the breeding end is not over, and the production capacity of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year [53]. "Anti - involution" Policy - Driven Futures Logic - The second quarter of 2026 may be the watershed of hog supply. The sow reduction policy only affects the supply after May 2026. The 2605 contract is the turning point. Before 2605, the supply is abundant, and after 2605, the supply may decrease if the sow number decreases [54]. - Low raw material costs may limit the premium of far - month contracts. In 2026, the full cost of leading breeding enterprises may be 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and the hog price may fluctuate between 13 - 15 yuan/kg [56]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the reduction in hog slaughter at the end and beginning of the month may support the price to stop falling and stabilize. In the medium - term, the supply increase in the second half of the year makes continuous price rise difficult. In the long - term, if the policy is implemented, the supply pressure after the second quarter of next year may weaken, driving up the valuation of next - year's second - half contracts [57]. 4. Egg Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and new production capacity is still being put into operation. Seasonal peak consumption may support the price to rise periodically. The key is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [82]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the egg price has confirmed the bottom but faces correction pressure due to rising inventory. In the medium - term, concentrated elimination and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a price rebound, but the rebound height depends on the chicken culling rhythm. In the long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [83]. Trading Strategy - The short - selling strategies in the first half of the year have been verified. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions. The 2509 contract should pay attention to the support at 3400 - 3450, and the 2510 contract at 3250 - 3280 [83].
玉米类市场周报:需求支撑相对有限,期货低位偏弱震荡-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 09:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the US corn has a high excellent rate and good output prospects, pressuring international corn prices. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies also restrict the corn market. Corn futures prices are weak this week [8][10]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices are oscillating at a low level recently [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Trade short - term [9]. - **Market review**: This week, corn futures oscillated and closed lower. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market outlook**: As of July 27, 2025, the US corn excellent rate was 73%. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies restrict the market. The overall trading is cautious, and the futures price is still weak [10]. - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Participate short - term [13]. - **Market review**: Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Market outlook**: Due to continuous losses, the industry's operating rate is low, reducing supply pressure. But downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is still loose. As of July 30, the national corn starch inventory was 129.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. The futures price oscillates at a low level [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' September contract oscillated and closed down, with a total position of 746,716 lots, a decrease of 105,390 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' September contract oscillated narrowly, with a total position of 158,356 lots, a decrease of 32,163 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes** - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 20,885 this week, compared to - 12,000 last week, with an increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 18,086 this week, compared to - 16,822 last week, also with an increase in net short positions [27]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 153,041 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 lots [33]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends** - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price was + 107 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 182 yuan/ton [38][44]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes** - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 87 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [50]. - **Futures Spread Changes** - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from last week [59]. - **Substitute Spread Changes** - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2440.5 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton from last week [64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of July 25, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.2 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 210.6 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.3 tons, and the shipping volume was 39.3 tons, a weekly increase of 5.3 tons [54]. - In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous month [72]. - As of July 31, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.58 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.83% [76]. - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month and 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [80]. - As of July 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 62.16 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 71.39 yuan/head [84]. - As of July 31, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 435 yuan/ton in Henan, - 612 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 193 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [88]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of July 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19% [92]. - From July 24 - 30, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week; the operating rate was 51.76%, an increase of 6.3% from last week. As of July 30, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.293 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14% [96]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of August 1, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 9.76%, a decrease of 1.14% from 10.9% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99].
农产品日报:板块延续弱势,关注宏观扰动-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and paper pulp are all neutral [4][7][10] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the price of US cotton futures is expected to continue to fluctuate in the second half of the year. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by various factors, and the price will be under pressure in the medium and long term [3] - The global sugar market may still be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic industrial inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9] Market News and Important Data Cotton - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 105 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,213 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 145 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5793 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] Paper Pulp - The closing price of the paper pulp 2509 contract was 5232 yuan/ton, a change of - 94 yuan/ton (- 1.76%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5270 yuan/ton, a change of - 70 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate in the second half of the year. Domestically, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but there are many factors restricting the continuous rise of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [3] Sugar - The global sugar market may be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The short - term price has support factors, and there may be a phased rebound. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] Paper Pulp - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategies Cotton - Be neutral. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term [4] Sugar - Be neutral. The short - term price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be considered bearish [7] Paper Pulp - Be neutral. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after the end of macro - stimulation [10]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250801
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: High - level gaming intensifies, waiting for a callback opportunity [2] - Soybean oil: Mainly fluctuating, focus on the China - US trade agreement [2] - Soybean meal: Concerns about trade, weak US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating [2] - Sugar: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress accelerates [2] - Cotton: Sentiment cools down, Zhengzhou cotton futures callback [2] - Eggs: Weak sentiment [2] - Live pigs: End - of - month volume - shrinking rally, focus on sustainability [2] - Peanuts: Focus on weather in production areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,868 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% decline. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,192 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,198 yuan/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia will raise the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil in August. The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [4][5][6][8][12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton with a - 0.51% decline, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% decline. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3,000 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% decline, and night - session closing price was 3,002 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline. CBOT soybeans fell due to good weather and weak demand. The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,288 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% decline in the daily session and 2,296 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the night session. The closing price of C2511 was 2,230 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decline in the daily session and 2,213 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline in the night session. Corn prices in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16][17][18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound with a - 0.11 decline year - on - year. Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated. The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20][23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 13,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE US cotton 12 fell. Cotton spot trading was good, but the cotton yarn market and fabric orders were weak. The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25][26][29] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,259 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.36% decline, and the closing price of egg 2510 was 3,298 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.96% decline. The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's live - pig spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,640 yuan/ton. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [33][34][35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,948 yuan/ton with a - 0.60% decline. The peanut market in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37][38][39]
豆粕周报:主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250801
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:33
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 气候中心中性预期,且美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段,预计将 | | | | 持续至 9 月底,8 月累库速度较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关 | | | | 键成本支撑。本周最新中美谈判结果出炉,维持原关税率,并再展期 90 天。成本 | | | | 支撑预期下,豆粕价格下档存在支持。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑的多 | | | | 空因素交织作用下,近两周内豆粕以大区间行情对待,技术操作为主。主力【2960, | | | | 3030】 全球菜籽产量同比恢复,但加籽少部分地区土壤墒情偏干,关注后续降雨情况。国 | | | | 内市场,目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库,商业库存去库,但同比依然维持较 | | | | 高水平。7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降,叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税,以及旧 | | | | 作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较强支持,但不断改善的加籽进口利润对菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 大区间震荡 | 构成上档压力。现货市场方面, ...
软商品日报:受美棉出口数据压制,棉花震荡调整-20250801
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:21
商品研究 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编:311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号:F0289189 投资咨询证号:Z0011152 联系电话:0571-28132619 邮箱:zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受美棉出口数据压制,棉花震荡调整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep:ortDate] 2025-08-01 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖:受秋冬春连旱影响,广西甘蔗出苗和前期生长不利,甘蔗长势和株 数较去年同期偏矮偏少。甜菜长势总体良好,但内蒙古产区近期降水偏多, 易发生病虫害,需提前防治。国际方面,后期需继续关注巴西产糖进度和北 半球糖料生长情况。 软商品日报 走势评级: 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花:全国大部分棉花产区已进入现蕾至开花阶段,生长进度比往年提前 了 4 到 7 天。根据中国气象局的气候预测,7 月份新疆地区的气温将 ...
农产品期权策略早报-20250801
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:58
Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a strong - oscillating state, while by - products, soft commodities, and grains have their own market trends. The report suggests constructing option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybeans (A2509) is 4,133, down 4 with a decline rate of 0.10%, the trading volume is 10.27 million lots, and the open interest is 12.22 million lots [3]. 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of different agricultural product options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean (A2509) is 0.55 with a change of 0.17, and the open interest PCR is 0.39 with no change [4]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has its own pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2509) is 4,300, and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options also shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean (A2509) is 9.31%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.04% with a change of - 0.32% [6]. 5. Strategies and Recommendations 5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (A2509, B2509)**: The US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 period has changed. The market shows a small - range consolidation and oscillation pattern. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies such as selling neutral call + put options and long collar strategies for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2509), Rapeseed Meal (RM2509)**: The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then a rebound. It is recommended to construct selling neutral call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2509), Soybean Oil (Y2509), Rapeseed Oil (OI2509)**: The palm oil market is affected by production and demand. It is recommended to construct selling long - biased call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy of put options and long collar strategies for spot hedging [11]. 5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs (LH2509)**: The spot price of pigs has declined, and the market shows a pattern of small - range consolidation under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct selling short - biased call + put option combination strategies and covered strategies for spot hedging [11]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: The egg price has risen and then stabilized. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy of put options and selling short - biased call + put option combination strategies [12]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: The apple market shows a pattern of gradual rebound. It is recommended to construct selling neutral call + put option combination strategies [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: The jujube market shows a pattern of rebound and then a decline. It is recommended to construct selling short - biased strangle option combination strategies and covered strategies for spot hedging [13]. 5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar (SR2509)**: The sugar market shows a pattern of rebound after a decline. It is recommended to construct selling neutral call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton (CF2509)**: The cotton market shows a short - term weak pattern. It is recommended to construct selling long - biased call + put option combination strategies and covered strategies for spot hedging [14]. 5.4 Grain Options - **Corn (C2509), Starch (CS2509)**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak decline. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy of put options and selling short - biased call + put option combination strategies [14].