2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - *ST Haiyue's stock will be delisted from the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to violations related to undisclosed non-operating fund occupation by its controlling shareholder and false reporting in financial statements [1][2]. Group 1: Delisting Announcement - The Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to terminate *ST Haiyue's stock listing, with the delisting effective from June 16, 2025, and the last trading day expected to be July 4, 2025 [1]. - The delisting period will last for 15 trading days, during which the stock will continue to trade on the risk warning board [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Violations - *ST Haiyue and its controlling shareholder were penalized by the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to disclose non-operating fund occupation and for false records in the 2022 semi-annual report [1][2]. - From 2021 to 2022, *ST Haiyue transferred funds to its controlling shareholder through prepayments to suppliers, amounting to 1.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2021, 3.77 billion yuan in 2021, and 6.88 billion yuan in 2022 [1][2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, *ST Haiyue expects revenue between 1.5 billion yuan and 1.8 billion yuan, with a net loss attributable to the parent company estimated between 380 million yuan and 220 million yuan [2]. - The company's bulk trade business has declined due to the overall downturn in the traditional energy sector and risks associated with bulk trade operations [2]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased compared to the previous year, leading to inventory impairment provisions and asset impairment losses based on cautious principles [2].

V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 变化 -5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Economic data weakness strengthens short - term hedging demand, Fed policy delays and debt risks provide medium - term support, and central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization set the long - term tone. Attention should be paid to the June FOMC meeting guidance, US debt ceiling progress, and geopolitical situation evolution [3]. - **Copper**: In the next 1 - 2 weeks with little change in macro and fundamentals, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. The tariff policy negotiation between Europe and the US mainly impacts the stock market. Supply is stable, and demand depends on the impact of the tariff exemption period in mid - to late June. Copper prices are unlikely to fall significantly without a halt in the decline of LME inventory. There is no clear signal for funds to enter the market [14]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply will be loose in the second half of the year, but inventory is at a low level. The zinc ingot import window is temporarily closed. The increase in zinc concentrate imports is significant. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly volatile with a slowly declining center of gravity, and the short - selling logic depends on zinc ingot inventory accumulation [34]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and continuous inventory reduction is the short - term support for aluminum prices. For alumina, the Axis mine in Guinea is likely to remain shut down in the short term, and the market is concerned about future supply surplus. Alumina prices are under pressure as inventory reduction is approaching the end and price increases in some areas are slowing [45]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore segment has support as the further decline space is limited. Nickel iron prices are slightly回调, stainless steel demand is weak, and some Indonesian producers have cut production. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are stabilizing, and nickel prices fluctuate with the non - ferrous sector. Attention should be paid to spot trading [67]. - **Tin**: The recent low - level hovering of tin prices is related to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. The actual production may not resume until July - August, and tin prices have rebounded due to the shrinkage of actual production compared to expectations [82]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are weak, but as prices fall, there is a higher probability of supply - side disturbances and short - covering. The futures market may fluctuate sharply [93]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry is in the process of eliminating backward production capacity. Supply pressure increases as enterprise复产 expectations are realized, and demand may be reduced. Polysilicon fundamentals are weak [101]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Spread**: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, and the price differences between SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot prices [4][5][7]. - **Relationship with Other Indicators**: Displayed the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index [9]. - **Fund Holdings and Inventory**: Presented the long - term fund holdings of gold and silver and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [11][13]. Copper - **Futures Data**: Provided daily copper futures data including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper [15]. - **Cash Data**: Gave daily copper spot data, including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of different regions, as well as spot premium and discount data [20][22]. - **Import and Processing**: Included copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference data [25][29]. - **Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE and LME copper and the seasonal inventory of Chinese cathode copper [13][32][33]. Zinc - **Price Data**: Provided zinc futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [35][39]. - **Inventory**: Presented the inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc and related seasonal inventory data [41][43][44]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Data**: Showed the futures and spot prices of aluminum and alumina, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [46][49][55]. - **Inventory**: Provided the inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina and related seasonal inventory data [63][64][65]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Gave nickel futures prices, inventory, and spot average prices, as well as nickel ore prices and inventory data [68][72][74]. - **Downstream Profit**: Presented the profit data of downstream nickel products such as stainless steel and nickel sulfate [76][78]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, premium and discount data, and inventory data [83][87][89]. - **Related Index**: Showed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [88]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: Gave lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and inventory data [93][96][99]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot and Futures Data**: Provided industrial silicon spot and futures prices, price differences between contracts, and basis data [101]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Showed the prices of downstream products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [105][106][107]. - **Production and Inventory**: Presented production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon [113][116][119].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/6/5 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 60,100.00 | -980.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -16,300.00 | -10084.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 231,588.00 | -14062.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].

银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...