Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in China's two major wealth reservoirs: the real estate market and the stock market, suggesting a shift in wealth towards the stock market due to declining investment efficiency in real estate and improvements in stock market regulations [3][4][5]. Real Estate Market - Investment efficiency in the real estate market is declining, leading to lower liquidity and suggesting that merely buying more properties is not a viable solution for stimulating domestic demand [4]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown a more favorable environment with new regulations enhancing company oversight, increasing delisting efforts, and encouraging higher dividends from quality companies [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market was active, with small-cap stocks outperforming mid and large-cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.76% and 0.48%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.53% [7]. - Over 70% of A-shares rose in the first half of the year, with more than 1,700 stocks gaining over 20%, 580 stocks over 50%, and 140 stocks over 100%, indicating a recovery in the market's profitability [8]. Market Trends - The first half of 2025 saw a rotation of hot sectors, including AI, humanoid robots, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries, with significant gains in specific stocks [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with an 18% increase, driven by rising gold prices and supply-demand tensions, while the coal sector saw a decline of 10% [10][11]. IPO Activity - In the first half of 2025, 51 new stocks were listed on the A-share market, raising 373.6 billion, which is lower than the over 500 billion raised in previous years [12][13]. - The Hong Kong stock market became the largest global IPO market in the first half of 2025, with 44 new listings raising approximately 107.1 billion HKD, a 699% increase year-on-year [14]. Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the second half of 2025, with predictions of a stable upward trend in the A-share market supported by favorable policies and improved liquidity [17]. - Recommended investment focuses for the second half include technology, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors [18].

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has significantly recovered, and further expansion may be limited, with future growth relying more on corporate earnings rather than valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Liquidity - Continuous improvement in liquidity has provided strong support for the upward movement of the Hong Kong stock market this year [2]. - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to factors such as liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority, sustained net inflows from southbound funds and foreign capital, a booming IPO market, and accelerated share buybacks by Hong Kong companies [2]. - Despite a recent decrease in the banking system's surplus, the overall liquidity environment remains loose, with the one-month HIBOR around 1% [2]. Group 2: Earnings Growth - Future upward movement in the market will depend more on corporate earnings growth, as the expected profit growth rate for the Hang Seng Index is relatively low for the next two years [3]. - The impact of tariff policies will gradually reflect in the fundamentals, and the strong resilience of the domestic economy in the first half of the year may weaken short-term policy expectations [3]. - Identifying sectors and stocks that are less affected by tariffs and have strong profit growth potential through AI development is crucial for better returns [3]. Group 3: Structural Market Trends - The market is expected to exhibit a structural trend, with accelerated sector rotation before new trend investment themes emerge [4]. - As the half-year earnings reporting period approaches, market participants have high expectations for corporate performance, which may lead to a rotation of funds from crowded sectors like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and banking to lower-crowded sectors with better earnings prospects, such as technology [4]. - If market sentiment remains high and liquidity is ample, even if crowded sectors experience a pullback, it will not hinder the medium-term positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the overall market value of A - share holdings of active equity - oriented funds decreased, while that of H - share holdings increased. The industry concentration of the top heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries saw significant increases in allocation ratios, while the steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios [4][6]. - The structure of the top heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The overall number of large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the holdings of sub - industry leaders increased. The new high - growth technology stocks related to AI emerged, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks were significantly reduced [4]. - In terms of industry leaders, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes: communication and hardware upstream under AI diffusion, non - bank finance, new consumption in the Hong Kong stock market, and national defense and military industry [26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q2 Active Fund Heavy - Stock Holding Structure Overview - **A - share and H - share holdings changes**: In Q2 2025, the total market value of active equity - oriented fund heavy - stock holdings was 1736.2 billion yuan, a 1.66% QoQ decrease. A - share holdings decreased by 2.79% QoQ to 1394.8 billion yuan, while H - share holdings increased by 3.20% QoQ to 341.3 billion yuan. Due to the complex macro - economic environment and market volatility, funds faced redemption pressure and tended to reduce large - cap stocks with poor liquidity [6]. - **Industry concentration decline**: From Q1 to Q2 2025, the industry concentration of the heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. CR3 decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 38.37%, and CR5 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 51.18%. The top five industries in terms of holding market value remained the same, but the proportion of the electronics industry increased, while the other four industries decreased [4][7]. - **Structural adjustment of industry holdings**: In Q2 2025, 12 industries saw an increase in the total market value of holdings. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries had large increases in allocation ratios, rising by 75.88%, 64.62%, and 38.37% respectively. The steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios, decreasing by 46.32%, 26.16%, and 23.99% respectively [9] 3.2 Q2 Active Fund Top Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Change in the structure of top heavy - stocks**: In Q2 2025, the structure of the top 20 heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the sub - industry leaders increased. The market value of the top 20 heavy - stocks accounted for 20.72% of all heavy - stocks, a 2% decrease from Q1 [12]. - **Changes in the top five heavy - stocks**: The top five heavy - stocks remained the same, but the overall holdings decreased. New high - growth technology stocks such as New Fiber Optic Technology and Inphi Corporation quickly rose in the rankings, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks such as Luxshare Precision Industry, Midea Group, and Contemporary Amperex Technology were significantly reduced [4]. - **Hong Kong stock market adjustment**: In the Hong Kong stock market, AI and Internet media leaders were reduced, while the pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors that performed well in Q2 were significantly increased [18] 3.3 Q2 Industry Leader Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Industry leader allocation changes**: In Q2 2025, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - **Communication industry focus**: Driven by the booming demand for AI hardware, the communication industry became the focus of funds. The optical module sector, which benefits from the expansion of AI capital expenditure, was the main area for increasing communication heavy - stocks. The profitability of communication equipment is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year [22]. - **Non - bank finance sector highlights**: The leaders of the non - bank finance sector attracted attention. The holdings of Ping An Insurance and CPIC increased by 55% and 41% respectively, and securities leaders such as Citic Securities and Huatai Securities also saw over 30% increases. The brokerage sector's performance is expected to continue to improve [23] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **AI diffusion - related communication and hardware upstream**: The significant increase in the holdings of optical module leaders reflects that funds are extending from AI software to computing infrastructure. AI capital expenditure is expected to drive the performance of upstream sectors in the second half of the year [26]. - **Non - bank finance sector**: The concentrated increase in holdings of leaders such as Citic Securities and Ping An Insurance reflects the positive expectations of the market for the profitability improvement of the brokerage and insurance sectors. The non - bank finance sector is expected to achieve a resonance of valuation repair and performance recovery [26]. - **Hong Kong stock new consumption theme**: After the correction in the AI sector, funds refocused on consumption structure highlights, especially in the Hong Kong stock market. Sub - sectors such as pets, toys, and emotional consumption have become important directions for heavy - stock allocation [26]. - **National defense and military industry safety theme**: The significant increase in the holdings of core military stocks reflects the high attention of institutions to the "national security + high - end manufacturing" theme. The military industry has policy support, order growth, and mid - report performance improvement expectations, with medium - term allocation value [27]

Group 1: Market Outlook - External negative factors are improving faster than expected, suggesting the market may reach new heights in the second half of the year[2] - The Hang Seng Index has the potential to break resistance levels with only a risk sentiment adjustment needed[3] - The third round of the Hong Kong stock market rally may start earlier than previously anticipated, driven by the Hang Seng Technology Index[12] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, such as e-commerce and local services, which are showing signs of stabilization[3] - The technology sector is at the intersection of recovery and low valuation, making it suitable for institutional investors to "buy low"[3] - The coal, cement, and cyclical goods sectors may accelerate their recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy[3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Valuation - Southbound trading accounts for 40% of the turnover, indicating a shift in the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong market[5] - The AH premium is expected to decrease to around 26% or lower, driven by a weaker dollar and market dynamics[6] - Corporate earnings are improving, with the MSCI China Index's EPS expected to rise for the third consecutive year in 2025[7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Themes - Two long-term investment themes are highlighted: large financials and technology, which are seen as core assets for differentiated allocation in the Hong Kong market[7] - The Hong Kong capital market is undergoing profound changes, with policies supporting its status as an international financial center[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance this year, driven by breakthroughs in AI technology, which have significantly improved market sentiment and attracted global capital to Hong Kong as a "value oasis" [1][7]. - Structural changes have broken the logic of low valuations in Hong Kong stocks, which had been perceived as a "value trap" due to poor liquidity and low returns. Recent improvements in various factors have led to a revaluation of the market [4][7]. - The liquidity situation in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved this year, supported by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's liquidity injections, continuous net inflows from southbound funds, and a booming IPO market [17][24]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that earnings will become the key driver of market trends, as the valuation expansion space is limited. The focus should be on sectors and stocks that are less affected by tariff policies and can leverage AI for strong earnings growth [36][44]. - The report suggests that the Hong Kong market will primarily exhibit structural trends in the short term, with accelerated sector rotation expected as the half-year earnings reporting period approaches [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors with low valuations and strong earnings potential, particularly in the technology sector related to AI, to achieve better returns [36][47]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the IPO market in Hong Kong has rebounded significantly, with total fundraising reaching 122.9 billion HKD this year, surpassing the total for 2024, and a notable decrease in the first-day listing failure rate [29][30]. - The report notes that share buybacks in Hong Kong remain at a high level, with a total buyback amount of 107 billion HKD so far this year, which is expected to improve ROE in the market [31][34]. - The report highlights that the earnings growth expectations for the Hang Seng Index are relatively low compared to other indices, but the technology sector is expected to show strong growth, with projected earnings growth rates of 33.2% and 22.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [36][38].

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced a decline, with notable drops in specific companies [1] - Old Poo Gold (06181.HK) fell over 6%, indicating significant market reaction [1] - Other companies such as Gu Ming (01364.HK), Bluco (00325.HK), and Juzi Bio (02367.HK) also saw declines exceeding 4% [1]

● 本报记者 刘英杰 得益于人工智能、新消费和创新药等新叙事不断涌现，港股市场今年以来表现亮眼，恒生指数、恒生中 国企业指数、恒生科技指数均累计涨逾24%，领涨全球主要市场。 中金公司研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，今年以来港股市场表现活 跃与流动性密不可分，未来支撑港股资金面的长期宏观因素并未改变，资金充裕但优质资产有限的局面 有望延续。 港股市场表现活跃 从成交额来看，Wind数据显示，截至7月22日，今年以来港股市场日均成交额达2394亿港元，较2024年 日均成交1318亿港元，增长超80%。 刘刚表示，虽然中国权益市场的基本面没有明显改变，且外部扰动不断，但结构性行情活跃，板块之间 此消彼长、不断轮动。 他认为，充裕的流动性和有限的优质资产必然导致资金扎堆，而符合优质回报定义的资产大多在港股。 "今年以来港股一、二级市场活跃与流动性密不可分。而且，作为典型的离岸市场，流动性对港股也起 到了远比A股市场更重要作用。"刘刚说。 南向资金持续流入 今年以来，港股市场流动性整体宽松，Wind数据显示，截至7月22日，南向资金今年以来累计净买入 7974.46亿港元，日均净买入61 ...

Core Insights - Public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks in Q2 2025, with the market value of Hong Kong stocks in the sample of actively managed equity funds rising to 20.0%, up from 19.2% in Q1 2025 [6][10] - The increase in holdings was primarily in small and medium-sized Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index's component stocks' market value share in the total Hong Kong stock holdings of funds increasing by 5.6 percentage points [6][10] - Sector-wise, public funds mainly increased their positions in the pharmaceutical, light manufacturing, non-bank financials, and banking sectors, corresponding to themes of innovative drugs, new consumption, and dividends [6][10] Fund Holdings Analysis - The report indicates a significant shift in fund holdings, with a reduction in the technology sector, particularly in internet and automotive stocks, which had previously seen substantial gains [6][10] - The technology sector's market value share in fund holdings decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while the media and retail sectors also saw declines [10][12] - Conversely, the consumer sector saw an increase of 3.8 percentage points in market value share, indicating a strategic pivot towards consumer-related investments [10][12] Specific Stock Movements - Notable changes in specific stock holdings include Tencent Holdings decreasing from 21.5% to 17.8%, while Alibaba's share dropped from 10.6% to 6.3% [12] - In contrast, stocks like Kuaishou and Pop Mart saw increases in their holdings, reflecting a shift towards emerging consumer brands [12] - The report highlights a significant increase in holdings for companies like Xinda Biopharmaceuticals, which rose from 1.2% to 3.5%, indicating a growing interest in innovative healthcare solutions [12]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index reached a new high of 25120.68 points, marking the highest level since 2022, with a year-to-date increase of 25% [1][2][4] - Despite recent fluctuations, the Hong Kong stock market is considered undervalued, with significant net inflows from mainland investors and increased holdings by state-owned enterprises [1][4][6] - The market sentiment is improving, and analysts remain optimistic about the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][6][7] Group 2 - The active inflow of southbound funds has been notable, with net purchases reaching 971.36 billion yuan in the past month and a total of 0.79 trillion yuan year-to-date [4] - Public funds have shown increased interest in Hong Kong stocks, with the total scale of actively managed funds reaching 325.9 billion yuan, up from 19.13% to 19.92% of total heavy holdings [4][6] - The performance of new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical sectors has significantly boosted market sentiment, with stocks like Pop Mart seeing a price increase of over 250% this year [8][9] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has outperformed, with related ETFs showing year-to-date gains exceeding 80%, indicating strong investor interest [9][10] - The biotechnology and medical technology sectors in Hong Kong account for 40% of the total market capitalization in the pharmaceutical sector, compared to 24% in A-shares, suggesting a higher level of innovation in Hong Kong stocks [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The survival and evolution of consumer brands heavily rely on two core genes: "deepening value perception" and "breaking through innovation" [1][10] Group 1: New Normal in Chinese Consumer Market - The Chinese consumer market has entered a "new normal" characterized by "single-digit growth," increasing complexity, and differentiation [2] - Consumer spending is increasingly influenced by actual income and assets rather than confidence levels, leading to more rational spending decisions focused on quality of life [2][3] - Notable market phenomena include the success of Labubu and the pressure on Moutai's prices, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and behaviors [2] Group 2: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are adjusting their spending behaviors to adapt to a challenging economic environment, with a weakening correlation between consumption intention and overall willingness to spend [3] - Wealthy urban consumers plan to increase daily spending by 2.6% by 2025, focusing on tangible goods like housing and vehicles, as well as intangible services for personal fulfillment [3] - Net consumption intentions show a willingness to invest in education (34%), health products (26%), and travel (12%), while categories like home appliances and tobacco show a tendency to tighten spending [3] Group 3: Value Expectations and Spending Balance - Consumers are opting for downgraded consumption in some areas while spending lavishly in others, reflecting a shift from "having more" to "living better" [4] Group 4: Innovation in New Consumption - New consumption is seen as a deepening evolution of consumption upgrade trends, with increasing demand for practical and emotional value [6] - Innovations are driven by new technologies, concepts, and models, particularly in hot consumer sectors like IP toys, jewelry, outdoor sports, and beauty products [7] - The demand for products with high cost-performance ratios, technological content, and health benefits is becoming a breakthrough point for new consumption [8] Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities for New Consumption Brands - New consumption categories face inevitable iterations and renewals, with challenges including intensified competition and failure to keep up with demand trends [8] - Companies are encouraged to shift from short-term profit strategies to long-term sustainable practices by enhancing innovation, optimizing channels, and accelerating globalization [9]