Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - SCFIS stopped falling and rebounded significantly, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market fluctuated widely. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On October 20, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 863.46 points, up 0.1% from the previous period [2] - On October 17, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 803.21 points, up 14.96% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% from the previous period [2] - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9% from the previous period [2] - On October 17, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 973.11 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1267.91 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 725.47 points, down 6.7% from the previous period [2] PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2] - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (the August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (the August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (the August final value was 54.6) [2] Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has decreased slightly [2] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [2] Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On October 20, the main contract 2512 closed at 1682.0, up 1.44%, with a trading volume of 24,300 lots and an open interest of 26,100 lots, an increase of 442 lots from the previous day [2] Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18% [2] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [2] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [2]

新华财经上海10月22日电（葛佳明）当前上海正朝着全面建成国际航运中心的目标加速迈进，上海海事 大学党委书记宋宝儒接受新华财经采访时表示，回顾"十四五"，以上海为龙头的中国港口群能级全面跃 升，国际竞争力和影响力不断提高，引领航运在数字化、智能化、绿色化的转型。展望"十五五"新阶 段，上海要着力推动国际航运中心能级全面跃升，后续宜进一步提升高端航运服务能级和航运资源全球 配置能力，推动港航、金融、司法、仲裁、人才等高端航运要素的持续聚集。 宋宝儒认为，航运业的绿色转型发展已成为国际国内共识。国际海事组织（IMO）也在积极推动建立具 有法律约束性的净零排放框架，推动航运力争业在2050年实现净零排放。这项政策或成为推动全球航运 业绿色发展的制度性约束与动力。 基于此，宋宝儒表示，一方面航运业正持续推广可替代能源的使用，布局船舶运行全过程碳足迹跟踪与 监测，另一方面，为主动应对国际海事组织净零排放管控新政，上海海事大学正牵头制定国际航运可持 续燃料认证体系，加快与国际规则接轨。 上海国际航运中心能级持续跃升 高端航运服务业是国际航运中心的核心软实力和关键性指标。宋宝儒表示，"十四五"时期是上海国际航 运中心从"基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market may be optimistic about future freight rates, leading to an upward trend in the market, but it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - In the short - term, for risk - preference investors, it is recommended to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize before making further judgments [2]. - In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents Freight Rate Index Changes - On October 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% [2]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1%; the SCFI European line price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9%; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% [2]. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [2]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Market and Contract Information - On October 21, the main contract 2512 closed at 1769.3, up 5.10%, with a trading volume of 42,900 lots and an open interest of 28,400 lots, an increase of 2333 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical and Industry News - Hamas is discussing the next - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement in Cairo, Egypt. The issue of Hamas disarmament has been put on the agenda and needs to be resolved through consensus and in - depth dialogue among Palestinian political parties [2]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed to adjourn the special meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) to review and adopt the draft amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention, including the IMO net - zero framework. The meeting will reconvene in 12 months [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Financial Market**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is entering a phase of direction selection. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter. The bond market is supported by the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. Methanol, rubber, polyolefins, glass, and soda ash markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and are affected by factors such as inventory and international trade [2][14][15]. - **Metals**: Precious metals have experienced a sharp correction after a rapid rise. The copper market is affected by supply shortages, and the zinc market may fluctuate within a range. The lithium carbonate market is currently in a short - term volatile state [20][21][22]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market is expected to oscillate at a high level, the iron ore market is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the steel market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [24][26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal market is expected to oscillate, the oil market is under short - term pressure, the sugar market is expected to oscillate, and the cotton market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European line market is expected to have an upward drive, and the far - month contract is slowly recovering [33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The net financial assets of EU member states have declined compared to previous periods, indicating a deterioration in the financial situation [6]. - **Domestic News**: The central bank will accelerate the legislation in key and emerging fields to improve the financial legal system [7]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of June 2025, the total asset management scale of the trust industry in China reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.11% [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 and the European STOXX 50 had little change. The FTSE China A50 futures rose by 1.62%, the US dollar index rose by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.18%, London gold fell by 5.31%, and London silver fell by 7.11% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is in a phase of direction selection. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations increased liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. The reaction of OPEC in November is crucial [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded on Tuesday. Supply pressure may increase in the later stage, and demand support is limited. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak, affected by factors such as crude oil prices and inventory digestion [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined significantly. The market is waiting for the China - US trade talks, and the Fed's monetary policy and the US government shutdown also affect the market [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the market may fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term volatile state. The fundamentals are improving, but there is still a possibility of project resumption [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market oscillated narrowly at night. The high iron - water output provides support for the price, but the possibility of blast furnace production reduction cannot be ignored [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is weak. The demand for iron ore is supported by strong steel production, and the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently [26]. - **Steel**: The steel price is stable and rising. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The protein meal market oscillated downward at night. The US soybean export inspection volume increased, and the Brazilian soybean planting is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - **Oils**: The oil market is weak at night. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support, but the market is under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market oscillated at night. The global sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market is oscillating strongly. The US cotton market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as the slowdown of machine - picking progress and the rise in seed cotton purchase prices [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping European line market is strong in the morning. Maersk's price increase in November indicates its intention to support prices, and the market is waiting for other shipping companies' actions and the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The currently issued sanctions have little impact on European routes. European routes are in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October to stop the price decline has shown initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of year - end price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are in advance. However, the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November empty - sailing situations need to be monitored. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1310, with a 12.92% increase; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 973, with a - 4.11% decrease. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a 31.88% increase, SCFIS - US West has a - 1.60% decrease, SCFI - US East has a 16.35% increase, SCFI - Northwest Europe has a 7.21% increase, SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a - 1.43% decrease, and SCFI - Mediterranean has a 3.53% increase [4]. - **Contract Freight Index**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values range from 1135.0 to 1769.3, with corresponding increases of 2.31% - 5.19% [4]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions of different contracts have different changes, such as a decrease of 32 in EC2606 position and an increase of 2333 in EC2412 position. The month - spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 have changes of - 52.4, 41.3, and 78.6 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - In late October, Maersk's quote was 1800 - 1900, HPL's was 1900, CMA's was 2100, etc. In early November, HPL's quote was 2500, CM's was 2800, etc [6]. 3.3 International News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza war. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a long list of tariff exemptions, and intense lobbying is expected [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East to follow up on the Gaza agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [13].

Core Viewpoint - The three major indices experienced a collective decline in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.89%, while the North Exchange 50 rose by 1.19% [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,114.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,800 stocks in the market saw declines [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors with gains included engineering machinery, wind power equipment, plant-based meat, shale gas, real estate, controllable nuclear fusion, and influenza [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included gold concepts, Hainan Free Trade Zone, gas, batteries, coal, and rare earth permanent magnets [1] Notable Stock Movements - Gold concept stocks collectively fell due to a significant drop in international gold prices, with companies like Hunan Silver, Xiaocheng Technology, Western Gold, and others experiencing declines exceeding 5% [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector also adjusted, with Haima Automobile, Hainan Airlines, and Haixia Shares leading the decline [1] - CPO concept stocks saw a surge, with Zhongji Xuchuang hitting a historical high [1] - The shale gas sector maintained its strong performance, with Shenke Co. and Petrochemical Machinery achieving three consecutive trading limits, while Shandong Molong and Petrochemical Oil Service achieved two consecutive limits [1] - The real estate sector was also active, with Yingxin Development achieving three consecutive limits and Guangming Real Estate achieving two consecutive limits [1] - Multiple sectors, including wind power equipment, plant-based meat, and engineering machinery, experienced rotation during trading [1]

Core Points - The recent imposition of additional port service fees on Chinese vessels by the U.S. has escalated tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, leading to increased shipping costs that will ultimately affect U.S. retail prices [1] - The global shipping market is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in U.S. container imports and port throughput, particularly from China [2][3] - The ongoing trade disputes and tariffs are causing U.S. retailers to become increasingly cautious about future import volumes, predicting a drop in monthly imports [4] Shipping Industry Impact - U.S. container imports fell by 8.4% month-on-month in September, with major categories like aluminum products and footwear seeing declines of 43.8% and 33.9%, respectively [2] - The introduction of special port fees has led to a 4% increase in shipping costs per container, which will be passed on to consumers, particularly affecting textiles and furniture [5][6] - Shipping companies are adjusting their capacity in response to U.S. policy uncertainties, with a shift in focus towards markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [3][7] Consumer Impact - U.S. consumers are facing rising prices due to increased shipping costs and tariffs, with reports of empty shelves and limited product availability [8][9] - The average tariff on U.S. imports from China is approximately 58%, contributing to higher consumer prices and financial strain on households [9] - Retailers are experiencing challenges in maintaining inventory levels for the upcoming holiday season, leading to concerns about the overall economic impact of these trade policies [8][4]

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货10月21日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,102.6 | 1,129.0 | 1,135.0 | 1, ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold futures prices, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce, indicates extreme volatility in the gold and silver futures market, suggesting that the current bull market may be nearing its end, potentially leading to a period of turbulent trading [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The number of bulk commodity transport ships waiting to dock at Chinese ports has reached its highest level of the year due to geopolitical tensions between the US and China, with an average waiting time of 2.66 days as of October 19, marking a 17% increase from the previous week [1] - China's status as the largest importer of bulk commodities means that ongoing congestion could disrupt global supply chains, affecting the transportation of liquid goods like crude oil and bulk commodities such as iron ore [1] - The US has initiated measures in the shipping sector, prompting China to impose high additional fees on vessels associated with the US, indicating an escalation in the shipping-related geopolitical struggle [1] Group 2: Gold Futures Market Analysis - Technically, the bulls in December gold futures maintain an overall advantage in the short term, with the next target being to push prices above the key resistance level of the historical high of $4,398 [1] - Conversely, the bears aim to drive futures prices below the critical technical support level of $4,000 [1]

2025年10月22日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 10月17日 10月20日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 956.45点, 较上期上涨16.79% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1140.38点, 较上期上涨10.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 803.21点,较上期上涨14.96% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 863.46点, 较上期上涨0.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.46点, 较上期上涨48.56% 10月17日 10月17日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1310.32点,较上期上涨149.90点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 973.11点, 较上期下跌4.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1145USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.2% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1267.91点,较上期下跌1.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1936USD/FEU,较上期上涨31.9% 中国出口集装箱运价指数C ...