Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1359/2293，2月下半月船期报价1359/2293；EMC2月上 半月船期报价1615/2430，2月下半月船期1615/2430；OOCL 2月上半月船期价格介于2331-2631美元/FEU，2月下 半月船期报价介于2287-2631美元/FEU。 地缘端：自2026年2月中旬起，马士基ME11线路将实施结构调整，通过红海和苏伊士运河过渡。在可能的情况下， 马士基还将在后续阶段对AE12和AE15服务进行调整，以通过红海和苏伊士运河。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2026年1月31日。2026年至今交付集装箱船舶6艘，合计交付运力46950TEU。 12000-16999TEU船舶合计交付2艘，合计2.8万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付1艘，合计17148TEU。交付预期层 面，12000-16999TEU船舶：2026年剩余月份交付73.74万TEU（50艘），2027年交付94.46万TEU（64艘），2028年交 付121.2万TEU（82艘），2029年交付41.54万TEU（29艘）。 FICC日报 | 2026 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/5 策略:短期做空性价比降低,关注低位做多06和反弹逢高做空淡季10。 免责 声明 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料， 国贸期货力求推确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整件做任何保证。 本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者带殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资看需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告仅向特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为场构成对国贸联货的侵权，我 司将视情况追究法律责任。 ITG国贸期货 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159266) experienced a net redemption of 1.0161 million yuan on February 4, ranking 37th out of 212 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1] - As of February 4, the latest scale of the ETF is 569 million yuan, with a previous day's scale of 562 million yuan, indicating a net outflow of 0.18% compared to the previous day's scale [1] - Over the past 5 days, the ETF faced a net redemption of 5.0294 million yuan, ranking 49th out of 212 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1] Group 2 - The ETF's latest share count is 556 million shares, down 9.74% from 616 million shares at the end of December 31, 2025, and its scale decreased by 6.86% from 611 million yuan [2] - The cumulative trading amount over the last 20 trading days is 254 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 12.718 million yuan [2] - The current fund managers are Liu Tingyu and Cai Leping, with Liu managing since July 23, 2025, achieving a return of 2.43%, while Cai has been managing since November 5, 2025, with a return of -0.39% [2] Group 3 - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Sinopec Engineering, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others, with respective holding percentages and market values detailed [2] - Other ETFs tracking the same index include Huaxia Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF, Wanji Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF, and Tianhong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF, with their respective scales and liquidity metrics provided [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the net profit forecasts for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) by 11% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting higher freight rates, and increased the target price for its Hong Kong stock by 48% to HKD 16, while raising the target price for its A-shares (600026.SH) by 10% to RMB 18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][5] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes that international freight rates still have further upside potential due to the exit of shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets from the market, which will result in effective capacity being lower than market expectations [1][5] - The firm anticipates that China Merchants Energy will benefit from this round of rising freight rates and assumes that oil transportation from Venezuela will shift from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets [1][5] Group 2 - In extreme scenarios, if sanctions on Russian or Iranian oil are fully lifted, it could further accelerate the exit of shadow fleet capacity, as non-sanctioned oil would no longer require shadow fleets for transportation [1][5] - The shadow fleets are unlikely to return to mainstream or compliant fleets due to the generally older age of these vessels, increasing maintenance needs, and rising regulatory risks, which should lead to their dismantling [1][5] - According to data from Clarksons and S&P Global, currently, 18% and 16% of the total tanker capacity, measured by deadweight tonnage, belongs to shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets respectively [1][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **2026 Feng Shui Index** and its implications for various industries, particularly the **real estate sector** and the **Hang Seng Index (HSI)**. Core Insights and Arguments - The **2025 market performance** was characterized by volatility, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing unexpected declines and subsequent rebounds, ultimately surpassing initial predictions [4][5]. - The **2026 Feng Shui Index** suggests a positive outlook for the year, with expectations of a strong market performance akin to a galloping horse, indicating a year of opportunities and potential surprises [8][12]. - The **real estate sector** is forecasted to face challenges, as it lacks direct auspicious influences in the current year's predictions. However, specific directions (East and Southeast) are noted to have favorable prospects, while the North and South may encounter disruptions [11][59]. - The **HSI**, categorized as an Earth element, is expected to benefit from the fire energy of the year, leading to a brighter outlook despite previous caution [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **Feng Shui Index** integrates traditional Chinese metaphysics, including the Five Elements theory, to predict market trends and sector performances [39][46]. - The **Wood element** is expected to thrive in 2026, positively impacting industries related to agriculture, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, while the **Fire element** is anticipated to boost sectors like energy production and communications [42][46]. - The **Water element** is predicted to be weak, potentially hindering the shipping and trade industries, as well as sectors related to small goods and aquaculture [56]. - The **real estate sector** is expected to struggle, but construction materials like sand and cement may see growth, particularly towards the end of the year [49]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the anticipated trends and challenges across various sectors as influenced by the Feng Shui Index for 2026.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights three main investment themes for February: aviation, oil shipping, and road transportation, driven by the Spring Festival travel peak and geopolitical factors [1][2][3] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on major airlines [1][2] - Oil shipping is anticipated to see price increases due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply [1][3] - The road transportation sector is viewed as a stable dividend asset amid market volatility, with specific recommendations for certain stocks [1][5] Aviation - The passenger load factor for 2025 is projected to rise to 85.1%, with ticket prices showing a mixed trend [2][14] - The Spring Festival is expected to catalyze stock price movements, with a forecast of 95 million passengers during the travel period, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [16][28] - The report notes that fuel price increases are manageable, as fuel surcharges can cover most cost increases [20][21] Oil Shipping - In January, oil shipping rates continued to strengthen due to increased demand from geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran [3][34] - The report indicates that oil shipping rates are expected to rise further post-Spring Festival, despite a potential short-term dip during the holiday season [34][36] Logistics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, while prices remain stable [4] - There are signs of recovery in the hazardous materials logistics sector, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the upstream chemical industry [4] Road Transportation - The road transportation sector is characterized by high demand for both passenger and freight services, with a notable increase in short-distance travel during the Spring Festival [5][28] - The report recommends specific stocks in the road sector, highlighting their potential for stable returns amid market fluctuations [1][5] Airport Operations - The report emphasizes the steady growth in passenger throughput at listed airports, with international routes contributing significantly to this growth [28] - It also notes that new capacity coming online may impact profitability, particularly for airports undergoing capital expenditure cycles [28][33]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将中远海能(01138)2026及2027年的净利润预测分别上调11%与 12%，以反映运费更高，并升中远海能港股目标价48%至16港元，升中远海能(600026.SH)A股目标价 10%至18元人民币，维持"买入"评级。 该行分析显示，在极端情境下，若俄罗斯或伊朗石油的制裁完全解除，可能会进一步加速影子船队运力 的退出，因为不受制裁的石油不再需要影子船队进行运输。同时，影子船队亦不太可能回归主流或合规 船队，因该些船只一般船龄都过高，后续维护需求增加以及监管风险上升，理应被拆解。根据Clarksons 与标普全球的数据，以载重吨位计算，目前油轮总运力中有18%及16%分别属于影子船队及受制裁船 队。 该信息由智通财经网提供 高盛认为国际运价仍有进一步上行空间，因受影子船队、受制裁船队相继退出市场或利用率偏低影响， 将使有效运力低于市场预期。预期中远海能将成为此轮运价上行的受益者，并假设委内瑞拉的石油运输 将由影子船队转向主流船队。 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 0.00% | 54.3 | 97 | | 1826 | - 57 | | | EC2604 | | 1247.6 | 0.78% | 544.5 | 24199 | | 32761 | -1468 | | | EC2606 | | 1534.0 | 0.02% | 258.1 | 3370 | | 14222 | 764 | | | EC2608 | | 1604.6 | 0.42% | 187.5 | 396 | | 1494 | ાર | | | EC2610 | | 1135.7 | 0.63% | 656.4 | 1963 | | 8185 | 508 | | | Ｆ菱 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | | 周环比 | ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首 季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。予公 司目标价20.26港元，维持"增持"评级。 香港联交所最新资料显示，2月4日，中远海能（600026）(01138)股东将股票由耀才证券转入东亚银 行，转仓市值5.67亿港元，占比3.08%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月4日，中远海能(01138)股东将股票由耀才证券转入东 亚银行，转仓市值5.67亿港元，占比3.08%。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首 季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。予公 司目标价20.26港元，维持"增持"评级。 ...