Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to fluctuate. The market will show a situation of increasing supply and demand in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation speed is decreasing with the approaching inventory peak. It's recommended to focus on downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Key Points from the Report - **Construction Site Data**: As of March 11, 2026 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5%, a 19 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 5.2 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same lunar period. The labor attendance rate was 43.9%, a 14.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 5.8 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same lunar period. The fund availability rate was 42.8%, a 7.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same lunar period [2] - **Steel Production Data**: According to weekly data from Steel Union, the output of rebar increased by 21.99 tons to 195.3 tons, the output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 5.85 tons to 295.26 tons, and the total output of five major steel products increased by 23.73 tons to 820.97 tons [2] - **Steel Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 18.49 tons to 894.17 tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.1 tons to 471.59 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 22.89 tons to 1974.89 tons [2] - **Steel Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 78.58 tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 13.79 tons to 295.36 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 106.73 tons to 798.08 tons [2] - **Steel Price Data**: On March 12, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan, reaching 2,970 yuan per ton. The finished steel fluctuated slightly and the fundamentals were stable [2] - **Market Situation**: After the Spring Festival, downstream demand gradually started, leading to an increase in the apparent demand for five major steel products. After the important domestic meetings, the supply side will also increase. The inventory still increased slightly this week, but the accumulation speed decreased and the inventory peak is approaching. The recent rise in crude oil prices has led to an overall increase in market prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of coking coal and coke temporarily maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The uncertainty of overseas geopolitical conflicts is relatively strong, and the prices of the energy and chemical sector fluctuate violently, which has a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke first rose and then fell, and fluctuated strongly at night, with relatively violent overall fluctuations. The energy and chemical sector strengthened again. On the spot side, the coking price remained stable after the first round of reduction, and the price of coking coal in individual producing areas increased slightly [3] Supply - This week, coal mines increased production further. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal of 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level. After the festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port returned to a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 186,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. From January to February, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [3] Demand - Recently, due to the implementation of emission reduction measures by steel mills, the average daily output of blast furnace hot metal this week dropped to 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons compared with the previous week, and a cumulative decrease of 120,800 tons in the past two weeks, exceeding market expectations. After the closing of the Two Sessions yesterday, it is expected that steel mills will gradually resume production. The raw material inventory in downstream enterprises has increased [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are in a state of long-short sentiment gaming and wide-range oscillations [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,120 yuan/ton and 3,275 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 13 yuan/ton (0.42%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%). The trading volumes were 765,830 lots and 320,782 lots, and the open interests were 1,676,246 lots and 1,243,723 lots, with decreases of 46,176 lots and 21,377 lots respectively [3]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2605 - RB2610 and HC2605 - HC2610 remained unchanged, while the spreads of HC2605 - RB2605 and HC2610 - RB2610 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The spot coil - rebar spread remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on March 12, rebar production increased by 21.99 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 5.85 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 23.73 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 18.49 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 22.89 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 78.58 million tons, and that for hot-rolled coil increased by 13.79 million tons, with a total increase of 106.73 million tons [4]. - **Steel Import and Export**: In February 2026, China imported 36.9 million tons of steel, a decrease of 9.0 million tons (19.6%) from the previous month, with an average price of 1,470.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 52.0 US dollars/ton (2.9%). From January to February, the cumulative steel imports were 82.7 million tons, a decrease of 22.9 million tons (21.7%) year - on - year. China imported 9,763.8 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 1,474.7 million tons (13.1%) from the previous month, with an average price of 101.3 US dollars/ton, basically the same as the previous month. From January to February, the cumulative iron ore imports were 21,002.3 million tons, an increase of 1,906.4 million tons (10.0%) year - on - year. China exported 783.7 million tons of steel, an increase of 8.3 million tons (1.1%) from the previous month, with an average price of 729.1 US dollars/ton, an increase of 45.5 US dollars/ton (6.7%). From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.1 million tons, a decrease of 138.2 million tons (8.1%) year - on - year [5]. - **Price Index**: In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year - on - year. The national producer price index for industrial products decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month [5]. - **Policy News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 27 to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan and the government work report. Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on optimizing real estate policies on February 25, which took effect on February 26 [5]. - **Steel Inventory of Key Enterprises**: In mid - February 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,812 million tons, an increase of 301 million tons (19.9%) from the previous ten - day period, 398 million tons (28.2%) from the beginning of the year, 199 million tons (12.3%) from the same ten - day period of the previous month, 139 million tons (8.3%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and a decrease of 86 million tons (4.5%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various types of steel products in different regions from March 6th to March 12th, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For example, the price of Beijing rebar was 3120 on March 6th and 3150 on March 9th. The price changes of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils from March 11th to March 12th are also given, with hot - rolled coil in Tianjin increasing by 50, Shanghai by 40, cold - rolled coil in Tianjin increasing by 10, and Shanghai by 20 [1] Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to offer trading strategies for each market. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the stock index was in a low - level oscillation. The main contracts of stock index futures all declined, with increased trading volume and positions. The market was affected by factors such as the US 301 investigation and the adjustment of technology stocks. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a bull spread option strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The market sentiment was initially cautious but turned positive due to the news of potential cuts in inter - bank deposit rates. It is recommended to close short positions on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The supply of soybeans still has an impact, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, narrow the MRM09 spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices rose, and domestic sugar prices showed a strong trend. The production increase in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, and the global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease. It is recommended that international sugar prices and Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil fluctuated. The expectation of biodiesel is positive, and the oils may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations in the short - term, consider p59 and y59 reverse arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures rose. The spot prices in the production areas are strong, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn, adopt a high - level oscillation strategy for the 05 corn, widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog prices are oscillating. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to face pressure. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and adopt a short strangle option strategy [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long operations on dips for the 05 peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43][45]. - **Eggs**: The egg prices are stable. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. It is recommended to short the June contracts on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory has decreased, and the prices are relatively firm. The 5 - month contract of apple futures is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to exit and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [50][51]. - **Cotton**: The outer - market cotton futures oscillated. The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [53][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The black sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is supported by raw materials and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strong trend, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies, hold the short coil - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking market fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in oil and gas and chemicals. It is recommended that cautious investors stay on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose rapidly from the bottom. The supply disturbance is increasing, and the spot market is recommended for high - level hedging. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force of ferroalloys is strong, but the profit - loss ratio has decreased. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver oscillated due to the repeated geopolitical situation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating range strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and exit the bull call spread strategy on rallies [71][72][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in an oscillating situation due to the continuous game of the Middle East issue. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for platinum and palladium, wait for low - long opportunities for platinum, look for opportunities to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by geopolitical risks and continues to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the short - term oscillation stabilizes, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][80][81]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price oscillates. It is recommended to expect short - term oscillations [82][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum production in the Middle East has suspended production cuts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91][92]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [93][94]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply and demand of lead have increased in March, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [96][97]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is strong due to the blocked passage of the strait. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy [98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [101][103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to conduct range operations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have not improved significantly, and the price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to be bearish, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate is not prominent, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [109][111]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillates downwards due to high risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate downwards and stay on the sidelines for options [112][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation is repeated, and ship attacks continue. The spot freight rate is affected by fuel prices and insurance costs. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the near - month 04 contract and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [115][116][117]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The negotiation on iron ore pricing rights between China and Australia is at a deadlock, and the future rental height of the Capesize ship type may be limited. The market trends of different ship types are differentiated. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the war duration on the dry bulk shipping chain [118][119][120]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market trading is dull, and the EU has differences in the EU ETS reform. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the EU's policy on carbon market reform, geopolitical situation evolution, and energy supply recovery progress [120][121][124]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk spill - over range of crude oil has expanded, and the Brent oil price is above $100 per barrel. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [125]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is limited and the price is rising, while downstream users are on the sidelines. The cost is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The low - sulfur supply is expected to shrink, and the demand in Singapore may increase. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [132][133]. - **LPG**: The LPG price follows the oil price. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [134]. - **Natural Gas**: Qatar's production suspension continues, and the supply shortage is accumulating. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for trading, arbitrage, and options [137][138][140]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to shrink unexpectedly. It is recommended to expect an upward trend driven by supply tension, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141][142][143]. - **BZ & EB**: The domestic operating loads of pure benzene and styrene have decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Middle - East logistics on supply. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply impact and prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [146][147][148]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene cracking enterprises have reduced their loads. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand structure is expected to improve. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [149][150]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [151][152]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited. The bottle - chip price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand of propylene are supported. The operating load has decreased, and the cost of downstream products is under pressure. It is recommended to expect an upward trend, pay attention to the Middle - East situation, prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [156][157][159]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions for L and PP. Set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Consider arbitrage opportunities for SPC L2605&PP2605 and set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Stay on the sidelines for options [160][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is strengthening. It is recommended to expect a strengthening trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [163][164]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillates widely. The supply at home and abroad is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and not chase the rise, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [165][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillates weakly. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [167][168][169]. - **Glass**: The glass price has large fluctuations, wide - range oscillations, and a weak direction. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][173]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillates at a high level due to news disturbances. The supply in Iran may decrease, and the domestic market is worried about supply shortages. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [174][175]. - **Urea**: The urea price oscillates widely following the energy - chemical market. The supply is at a historical high, and the demand is gradually increasing. It is recommended to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [177][178]. - **Pulp**: The pulp inventory is high, and the market rebound is weak. The supply exceeds demand, and the demand recovery is slow. It is recommended to conduct wide - range oscillations, lay out long positions in small amounts near integer points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [179][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the paper price. The supply and demand of offset printing paper are in a weak balance, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [182][184][185]. - **Logs**: The import cost of logs is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of construction sites. The price is supported by cost and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][187][188]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The full - steel tire production line has reached a new high in operation. The domestic tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high point, conduct small - amount long operations for the NR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the RU2605 put 15750 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent high points [189][190][191]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene rubber has improved. The profit of BD has increased, and the tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to chase long positions for the BR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [193][194][195].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand dynamics support steel prices. Steel prices are expected to rise, with the 5 - month contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil facing resistance around 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are likely to be volatile and bullish in the short term, with a reference range of 780 - 850, due to geopolitical impacts and supply - demand changes [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, prices are expected to stabilize. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract in the range of 1650 - 1850 and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract in the range of 1100 - 1250 [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5700 - 6200. Ferromanganese prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China increased by 10, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in North China increased by 20 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20, while some cost and profit indicators such as East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 24 [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 6.3 to 221.2, a 2.8% decline. Five - major - variety steel production increased by 23.7 to 821.0, a 3.0% increase. Five - major - variety steel inventory increased by 22.9 to 1974.9, a 1.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 8.8, a 9.4% decline. Five - major - variety apparent demand increased by 106.7 to 798.1, a 15.4% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased, and 05 - contract basis of some ores also increased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of lower - grade powder increased by 21.8 to 902.4, a 2.5% increase [4]. Supply - 45 - port arrival volume increased by 463.0 to 2609.9, a 21.6% increase, while global shipping volume decreased by 442.9 to 2897.8, a 13.3% decrease [4]. Demand - 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a 2.4% decrease, and 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 12.6 to 311.1, a 4.2% increase [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory increased by 25.9 to 17117.86, a 0.2% increase, and 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 73.5 to 9011.6, a 0.8% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal prices and spreads showed different changes. For example, the coke 05 contract increased by 9 to 1727, a 0.5% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - Coke production remained stable, and pig iron production decreased by 6.4 to 221.2, a 2.8% decrease. Coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 165.0 to 861.3, a 23.74% increase [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory decreased slightly, and coking coal inventory in some sectors changed. For example, the whole - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increased by 20.0 to 969.4, a 2.14% increase [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Futures and Spot - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures and spot prices changed. For example, the ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 38 to 5922, a 0.64% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20.5% [7]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production remained stable at 9.7, and ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.1 to 1.9, a 5.94% increase. Ferromanganese demand increased by 0.5 to 11.7, a 4.94% increase [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory of 60 - sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 to 37.6, a 6.6% decrease, and ferromanganese inventory of 63 - sample enterprises decreased by 1.2 to 38.7, a 3.0% decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of black - series commodities are running strongly in the short - term. The overall supply - demand of the market is recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but inventory is still rising. The market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view on the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has briefly boosted market confidence, and the policies of the "Two Sessions" did not exceed market expectations. The futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and it is more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short - term [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption peak season. The production of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills has rebounded. The hot - metal production has decreased significantly, but it will gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs of both supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated increase in iron ore prices. On the supply side, shipping has gradually recovered to a high level with the improvement of the weather. The arrival volume has declined, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the crude oil price remained strong after a spike and fall. The prices of black - series commodities were running strongly in the short - term. The overall supply - demand of the market was recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but inventory was still rising. The market had relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view on the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil briefly boosted market confidence, and the "Two Sessions" policies did not exceed market expectations. Technically, the futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and it was more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short - term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, operate cautiously, and patiently wait for a pull - back to go long at low prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3115 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day and 1.43% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3269 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day and 1.77% from last week. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel production was 173.31 tons, up 4.97% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 301.11 tons, down 2.75% from last week. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties was 1403.13 tons, up 8.29% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 637.75 tons, up 12.33% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 tons, up 6.78% from last week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The production of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills has rebounded. The hot - metal production has decreased significantly, but it will gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs of both supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated increase in iron ore prices. On the supply side, shipping has gradually recovered to a high level with the improvement of the weather. The arrival volume has declined, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a volatile mindset, do not chase up or sell down. Try to go long lightly at low prices during the pull - back of the futures price [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 787.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.45% from the previous day and 4.72% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 103.74 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.65% from the previous day and 4.73% from last week. - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipping volume was 1552.2 tons, down 6.91% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipping volume was 469.6 tons, down 26.30% from last week. - **Inventory**: The port inventory totaled 17117.86 tons, up 0.15% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 11780.21 tons, up 0.59% from last week [5]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of March 12, the threaded steel production increased for two consecutive weeks, the factory inventory increased for eight consecutive weeks, the social inventory increased for ten consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand increased for three consecutive weeks. The threaded steel production was 195.3 tons, an increase of 12.69% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 654.55 tons, an increase of 2.63% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 176.81 tons, an increase of 80% from last week [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants across the country was - 3 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 22 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 51 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 52 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 45 yuan/ton [7]. - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days from the previous period [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemicals, evaluates their market trends and price movements, and gives corresponding investment advice based on fundamental data and news [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][6]. - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][7]. - **Copper**: Inventory increase limits price increase, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the trend intensity is -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The increase of domestic inventory puts pressure on the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: It fluctuates at a high level, the trend intensity is 1; Alumina: The cost is rising, the trend intensity is 0; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][25]. - **Platinum**: Geopolitical disputes have arisen again, and precious metals are under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0; Palladium: It stays at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28]. - **Nickel**: Tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its flexibility, and the trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][32]. Energy - **Crude oil**: Not in the content, but relevant information affects other commodities. - **Coking coal**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][62]. - **Coke**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][61]. - **Steam coal**: Supply and demand are becoming more abundant, and coal prices are回调, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][67]. Chemicals - **Para-xylene**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - **PTA**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][74]. - **Rubber**: It fluctuates widely, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][82]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It fluctuates widely within the day, and the price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][86]. - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the shrinkage of cracking supply continues, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - **PP**: The supply of various raw materials is restricted, and upstream production starts to shrink, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - **Caustic soda**: Supply is passively reduced, and the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][92]. - **Paper pulp**: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely at a high level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][103]. - **Urea**: It fluctuates widely, and the fundamentals support the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][107]. - **Styrene**: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][110]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market changes little, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][112]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end lead to an expected reduction in supply, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost and reduced supply, the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel oil**: It maintains a rebound and is still in a high - volatility environment in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil: It hit the daily limit during the day session, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market decreased marginally, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: The market sentiment is strong, but beware of a sharp fall after a rise, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market rebounds and fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - **Corn**: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][166]. - **Sugar**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for new drivers, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][174]. - **Eggs**: It fluctuates within a range, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: There is passive inventory accumulation, and the spot price is declining, with a trend intensity of -2 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][185]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Geo - political sentiment dominates, and the fluctuations are large, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][130]. Fibers - **Staple fiber**: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. - **Bottle chips**: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. Paper - **Offset printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][148]. Oils - **Palm oil**: Driven by positive news, the oil market runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157]. - **Soybean oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it fluctuates at a high level in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157].

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黑色建材日报 2026-03-13 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 供给方面，最新一期海外矿石发运环比下滑。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量双双下降。非主流国家发运降低。 近端到港量止跌回升。需求方面，最新一期钢联口径日均铁水产量环比下降 6.39 万吨至 221.2 万吨。高炉 检修主要为环保限产影响，主要集中在河北地区。复产高炉因周期内复产时点偏晚，预计下期逐步兑现。 钢厂盈利率环比回升。库存端，港口库存小幅增长，高位维持。综合来看，铁矿石海外供给高位波动，边 际下滑。BHP 谈判问题加剧资源结构性紧张预期。海外方面，中东冲突波及大宗商品市场，局势发展不确 定性较强。冲突持续可能提升运费成本，同时对供给端产生轻微扰动。整体而言，受谈判问题及海外地缘 冲突影响，矿价震荡偏强运行。同时波动风险加大，注意风险控制，关注后续谈判进展及地缘局势发展。 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zh ...