近日，财政部与生态环境部联合发布《企业可持续披露准则第1号——气候（试行）（征求意见 稿）》（以下简称《气候准则征求意见稿》），标志着我国可持续信息披露准则体系建设取得重要进 展。 "《气候准则征求意见稿》旨在规范企业披露气候相关风险、机遇和影响的信息，向投资者、债权 人、政府及其有关部门和其他利益相关方提供重要的气候相关信息，以便其做出经济决策、资源配置或 者其他决策。"中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院ESG中心联合主任杨晨辉表示，该文件的发布标志着 可持续信息披露准则工作的重要进展，同时充分表明我国全力推进并引领社会经济高质量发展的决心。 可持续披露准则体系建设稳步推进 2023年以来，财政部稳步推进我国可持续披露准则体系建设。2024年5月，财政部发布《企业可持 续披露准则——基本准则（征求意见稿）》；同年11月，财政部等九部门联合印发《企业可持续披露准 则——基本准则（试行）》（以下简称《基本准则（试行）》），拉开了国家统一的可持续披露准则体 系建设序幕，为气候准则等具体准则的制定奠定了基础。 在《基本准则（试行）》中，财政部明确了企业可持续披露准则整个体系包括基本准则、具体准则 和应用指南三大模块。具 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading, and in the absence of significant macro disturbances, it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the alumina futures price has rebounded, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future. The core driver will be the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will remain under high - level pressure in the short term. The reference price range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight, providing some support for the cost of recycled aluminum. However, the demand is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. It is expected that the disk will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract running in the range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc mines has risen, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June were both lower than expected. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventories provide price support. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation has been stable, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will be mainly adjusted within a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term sentiment of the disk is stable, but the policy's continuous stimulus expectations are insufficient, and the fundamental spot demand drive is not obvious. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic, gradually entering the peak season. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. The disk is mainly trading on expectations, and the uncertainty on the supply side will still inject trading variables. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The alumina price in most regions remained stable, with only the average price in Guizhou rising by 0.45% [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The aluminum profile开工率 decreased by 1.00% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 3.02% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.65% week - on - week [8]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 73.81% [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The SHEF inventory increased by 3.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton, and the premium of some brands remained stable. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 0.88% month - on - month [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while the import volume increased by 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.11% day - on - day [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts increased slightly [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 47.37% to 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 铝日报 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 美联储 9 月降息预期进一步升温，宽松预期支撑铝价延续上涨，7 日沪铝跳 空高开上行，主力 2509 最高触及 20830 元/吨，尾盘报收于 20750，涨幅 0.73%， 日线呈现小十字星形态，指数总持仓增加 17268 至 594821 手，08-09 升水转为平 水，因到货不均匀导致周四库存未继续累增，但实际下游消费未表现出全面好转， 仍处于消费 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

证券代码：002996 证券简称：顺博合金 公告编号：2025-054 债券代码：127068 债券简称：顺博转债 重庆顺博铝合金股份有限公司 第四届监事会第二十四次会议决议公告 本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、会议召开和出席情况 重庆顺博铝合金股份有限公司（以下简称"公司" ）第四届监事会第 二十四次会议于 2025 年 8 月 5 日在公司会议室以现场方式召开。会议通 知于 2025 年 7 月 25 日以通讯结合电子邮件方式向全体监事发出。本次 会议由公司监事会主席罗乐先生主持。应出席会议监事 3 人，实际出席 会议监事 3 人。本次会议召开符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的规定， 所作决议合法有效。 二、会议议案审议及表决情况 经与会监事认真审议，以记名投票的方式进行了表决。本次监事会 形成如下决议： (一) 审议通过《2025 年半年度报告全文及其摘要》 监事会认为，公司《2025 年半年度报告全文及其摘要》的编制程序 符合法律、行政法规和中国证监会的规定，报告内容真实、准确、完整 地反映了公司的实际情况，不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].

资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当对应的母指数调整样本时， 行业指数样本将相应调整。当样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对指数进行相 应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照 计算与维护细则处理。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 据了解，中证香港100行业指数系列将中证香港100指数样本按中证行业分类标准进行分类，再以各自行 业全部证券作为对应行业指数的样本。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从中证香港100原材料指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港100原材料指数持仓样本的行业来看，黄金占比68.96%、铝占比31.04%。 金融界8月6日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证香港100原材料指数 (H100材料，L11181)报737.12点。 数据统计显示，中证香港10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].