Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][13][21][38][45] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis values were - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4, - 161.4, - 166.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented from April 29 to May 8, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on May 8 was - 35.28 yuan/ton [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP changed. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 8 was - 160 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of different chemical products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was - 1030 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of chemical products like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - PVC are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 8 was 2169 yuan/ton [9] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of black metal products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal changed. For example, the basis of rebar on May 8 was 138.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of black metal products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was 88.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of black metal products such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 8 was 4.40 [14] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of domestic non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead changed. For example, the basis of copper on May 8 was 1220 yuan/ton [22] (2) London Market - **LME Premium/Discount, Shanghai - London Ratio, etc.**: On May 7, 2025, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 21.65 [28] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn changed. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 8 was - 214 [38] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 18 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 8 was 1.76 [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 changed. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 8 was 36.90 [46] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of stock index futures (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 30.2 [46]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's interpretation of policy benefits is limited, and funds still focus on weak expectations. The black sector only showed a brief rebound, without substantially changing the market pattern. Although the spot market is okay, the expectations remain weak. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement phase, resulting in a situation of "good reality but poor expectations." [5] - The cost of coking coal continues to decline, and the coal and coke futures hit new lows. The second round of price increase for coke is temporarily put on hold, with a price cut expected in the middle and late May. The market sentiment is weak, and the coking coal auction has many failed bids. The coal and coke market is recommended to be shorted on rallies. [6][7] - The market's interpretation of the press conference on Wednesday is limited. The steel mill's molten iron output has significantly rebounded, and the short - term iron ore valuation is relatively low. However, due to the expectation of production restrictions, it is not recommended to hold long iron ore positions unilaterally, but positive spreads can be used to express views. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3126 yuan/ton (+5, +0.16%), HC2601 at 3239 yuan/ton (+8, +0.25%), I2601 at 681 yuan/ton (+1, +0.15%), J2601 at 1550 yuan/ton (-9, -0.58%), and JM2601 at 951 yuan/ton (-13, -1.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton (+6, +0.088%), HC2510 at 3217 yuan/ton (+11, +0.34%), I2509 at 708 yuan/ton (+2.5, +0.35%), J2509 at 1507 yuan/ton (-10, -0.66%), and JM2509 at 908 yuan/ton (-7, -0.77%). [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads (RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, JM2509 - 2601) on May 7 were - 28, - 22, 27, - 43, - 43 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 4, 6, 2, 5.5, 5 yuan/ton. The spreads/price ratios/profits on May 7 were: the coil - to - rebar spread was 119 yuan/ton (0 change), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.38 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.66 (+0.01), the rebar disk profit was - 118.55 yuan/ton (+12.73), and the coking disk profit was 299.36 yuan/ton (+9.66). [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3230, 3220, 3460 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40, 30, 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3290, 3290, 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 60, 50, 30 yuan/ton. Other spot prices and their changes are also provided in the report. [2] - **Basis**: On May 7, the basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM were 73, 132, 69, 151.66, 102 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 39, 19, 0, - 5, - 6.5 yuan/ton. [2]

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨 ...

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities on different dates, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, which can help investors analyze the price relationships and trends of these commodities [2][8][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - Basis data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, shows that the basis values are negative and gradually decreasing, with values of - 146.4, - 147.4, - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4 respectively. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0 [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the crude oil/bitumen ratio, basis and ratio data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are presented. For example, the INE crude oil basis on May 6 is - 40.14 [6]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From April 25 to May 6, 2025, basis data for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP are provided. For instance, the natural rubber basis on May 6 is - 115 [8]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads for natural rubber, methanol, etc. The 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber is - 930 [8]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are presented for different dates [8]. 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar basis on May 6 is 113.0 [13]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 spread of rebar is - 78.0 [13]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented for different dates [13]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are given. The copper basis on May 6 is 770 [22]. (2) London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME copper spread on April 30 is 20.23 [29]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are provided. The soybean basis on May 6 is - 269 [37]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean is 23 [37]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented for different dates [37]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. The CSI 300 basis on May 6 is 42.34 [45]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different stock index futures are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 30.6 [45].

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年05月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本拖累价格，硅铁走势偏弱 | 4 | | 锰硅：成本拖累价格，锰硅走势偏弱 | 4 | | 焦炭：政策预期扰动，底部震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：政策预期扰动，底部震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：观望情绪浓厚，震荡偏弱 | 8 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 9 | 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 05 月 07 日 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 马亮 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 maliang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 20 products experiencing price increases, 25 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable from mid-April to late April 2025 [2][3]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 27.5 CNY to 3193.3 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.9% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) rose by 33.3 CNY to 3358.3 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.0% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) increased by 17.5 CNY to 3548.8 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.5% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) saw a slight increase of 3.0 CNY to 3310.2 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) decreased by 12.0 CNY to 4143.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.3% - Angle steel (5) fell by 18.3 CNY to 3503.7 CNY per ton, a decrease of 0.5% [4]. 2. Nonferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 1826.5 CNY to 77680.7 CNY per ton, a rise of 2.4% - Aluminum ingot (A00) rose by 234.6 CNY to 19952.9 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.2% - Lead ingot (1) increased by 87.5 CNY to 16800.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.5% - Zinc ingot (0) rose by 222.9 CNY to 22862.9 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.0% [4]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) decreased by 24.6 CNY to 661.4 CNY per ton, a decline of 3.6% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) increased by 8.6 CNY to 867.1 CNY per ton, a rise of 1.0% - Methanol (first grade) saw a slight decrease of 1.4 CNY to 2393.8 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.1% - Pure benzene (industrial grade) decreased by 188.0 CNY to 6092.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 3.0% - Styrene (first grade) fell by 169.6 CNY to 7416.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 2.2% [4]. 4. Energy Products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 21.2 CNY to 4460.4 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.5% - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 108.0 CNY to 4924.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 2.1% - Gasoline (95 National VI) decreased by 83.0 CNY to 8540.8 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.0% - Diesel (0 National VI) fell by 79.0 CNY to 7018.2 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.1% [4]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) increased by 27.5 CNY to 960.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 2.9% - Ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) decreased by 5.4 CNY to 520.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.0% - Shanxi large mixed coal (5000 kcal) fell by 9.4 CNY to 588.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.6% [4]. 6. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous) increased by 12.7 CNY to 3938.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.3% - Wheat (national standard grade three) rose by 17.8 CNY to 2405.8 CNY per ton, an increase of 0.7% - Corn (yellow corn grade two) increased by 19.6 CNY to 2215.3 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.9% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) rose by 54.0 CNY to 4242.4 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.3% [5].

| 项目 | 中国大宗商品 | 能源价格 | 化工价格 | 黑色价格 | 有色价格 | 矿产价格 农产品价格 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | | 单位 | 点 | 点 | हु | 点 | 点 | 点 | 点 | | 25.04 | 109.9 | 98.4 | 102.4 | 79.3 | 126.5 | 77.2 | 97.7 | | 25.03 | 113. 4 | 100. 1 | 108. 5 | 80. 3 | 131. 4 | 77.9 | 97. 3 | | 月涨跌 | -3.5 | -1.7 | -6.1 | -1.0 | -4.9 | -0.6 | 0.4 | | 月环比 | -3. 1% | -1. 7% | -5. 7% | -1. 3% | -3. 7% | -0. 8% | 0. 4% | | 24.04 | 115.4 | 112.8 | 116.8 | 86.8 | 128.2 | 83.1 | 98.8 | | 年同比 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

技术分析看黑色月报： 震荡走低小阴线，虽有反复势难改 黑色研究团队： 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.28 目录 C o n t e n t s 1 螺纹低开阴锤头，前低一线有反复 2 铁矿震荡小阴线，破位下行是关键 3 双焦继续下跌势，焦炭阴星煤阴线 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 黑色技术分析月报要点： 【黑链指数】黑链指数代表了黑色整体走势，黑色月度上看报收小阴线，减仓放量，连续三个小阴线延续跌势，形成"三个红小兵" 的组合，且本月波幅及成交同步扩大，为推进信号，后市仍有下跌潜能。只是本月有减仓的行为，主要是交割月前一个月移仓换月、 散户退场以及短线价格反弹造成。 【螺纹加权】螺纹加权月线是一个新低阴锤头，减仓缩量，连续三个月以阴线报收，有三个红小兵之嫌。当月走势则是低开、震荡走 低，探底回升。整体呈现二次探底，在前低受支撑的状态，这也是继上个月破位下行，本月继续走低但有反抽的正常走势，从另一个 角度看的话，虽有反复，但整体走势已经进入下跌走势。 【铁矿加权】铁矿加权本月继上月低开低走小阴线，本月高开震 ...