Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: steel (low - level consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), coke (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend) [1][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the off - season, inventory has not accumulated, and the contradiction in the spot fundamentals is not obvious, but market expectations are cautious. The short - term steel futures market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - For iron ore, with the increase in supply from Australia and Brazil and the change in demand and inventory, the price of the iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate under the influence of both long and short factors [1]. - In the coking coal market, with the recovery of some coal mines' production and the downstream's replenishment, the inventory of upstream coal mines has decreased, but the downstream's procurement of high - priced resources is still general. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to operate with a slightly upward trend [1]. - The coke market has seen an improvement in the inventory pressure of coke enterprises and an increase in the steel mills' procurement willingness. The short - term coke futures market is expected to operate with a slightly upward trend [1]. - Regarding manganese silicon, although the news of the reduction in South African manganese ore shipments has boosted market sentiment and strengthened cost support, the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the overall black sector is strong, and the cost support is expected to increase. However, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2973 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 19,200 lots. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume increased slightly. This week, the national rebar production increased by 56,600 tons to 2.1784 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 53,500 tons to 3.634 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 32,800 tons to 1.856 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 7,200 tons to 2.1991 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 705.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.43% compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 18,000 lots in positions. The port spot prices showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipments increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the hot metal production increased by 110 tons to 242,290 tons. The inventory of 47 ports' imported iron ore increased by 466,700 tons to 14.48023 million tons, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 11 to 85. The inventory of imported ore in national steel mills decreased by 880,000 tons to 8.847 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 819.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton or 1.86% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 40,404 lots. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 20 yuan to 883 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was operating strongly, but the market transaction was light. Some coal mines have resumed production, and downstream coke enterprises are actively replenishing their stocks [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1395.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton or 0.58% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 24 lots. The spot price of port coke was stable. After the four - round price cut of coke, some coke enterprises limited production due to losses, but the overall operating situation changed little. The steel mills' replenishment enthusiasm increased slightly, and the inventory pressure of coke enterprises was relieved [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the price of manganese silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5676 yuan/ton, a 0.96% increase compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 2966 lots to 398,500 lots. There was news that South African manganese ore shipments would be reduced. The weekly production of manganese silicon has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, but the demand has not improved significantly [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the price of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5384 yuan/ton, a 0.98% increase compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 4857 lots to 221,400 lots. The overall black sector was strong, and the price of coking coal led the increase. The cost support was expected to increase. The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased by nearly 3% to 97,900 tons, and the demand of sample steel mills increased slightly [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 month spread was - 5.0, a decrease of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 0.0, unchanged. For hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 month spread was 2.0, an increase of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 4.0, a decrease of 3.0. For iron ore, the 9 - 1 month spread was 26.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 month spread was 16.5, unchanged. For coke, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 38.5, an increase of 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23.0, an increase of 7.5. For coking coal, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 36.0, an increase of 7.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 26.0, a decrease of 1.0. For manganese silicon, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 34.0, a decrease of 4.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 18.0, a decrease of 2.0. For ferrosilicon, the 9 - 1 month spread was 30.0, a decrease of 14.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 6.0, an increase of 16.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For rebar, the basis of the 10 - contract was 87.0, a decrease of 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 82.0, a decrease of 10.0. For hot - rolled coil, the basis of the 10 - contract was 77.0, a decrease of 5.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 2.0. For iron ore, the basis of the 09 - contract was 34.5, a decrease of 3.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 60.5, a decrease of 3.0. For coke, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 121.4, a decrease of 8.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 159.9, a decrease of 6.0. For coking coal, the basis of the 09 - contract was 23.5, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 12.5, a decrease of 8.0. For manganese silicon, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 156.0, a decrease of 2.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 190.0, a decrease of 6.0. For ferrosilicon, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 134.0, an increase of 40.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 104.0, an increase of 26.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Beijing was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangzhou was 3140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of PB powder was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of super - special powder was 595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia was 5470 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Guangxi was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5130 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Qinghai was 5150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 68.2, a decrease of 11.9; the long - process profit was 99.8, a decrease of 8.2; the short - process profit was - 152.0, an increase of 12.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130.0, an increase of 8.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.2, a decrease of 0.02; the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1, a decrease of 0.01; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.7, a decrease of 0.02; the ratio of coke to iron ore was 2.0, unchanged; the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon was - 292.0, a decrease of 12.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It includes the spread trends of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. [40][41][42][43]. - **Rebar Profit**: It presents the trends of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][47][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry [50][51]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/25 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, similar to thread [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, bullish bias and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★, with a short - term bullish view [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, short - term bullish [1] Report's Core View - The overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, downstream industry conditions, and policies. Different varieties have different trends and outlooks, with some facing supply pressure, some having demand - related issues, and some showing potential for price increases or decreases [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures showed a decline and then a rebound. Thread demand remained stable this week, production continued to rise, and inventory depletion slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory slightly increased. High - furnace still has profits, and hot - metal production remains relatively high. However, the off - season acceptance capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. Downstream industries have weak demand, and the market is under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron - ore futures rose slightly. Supply is at a high level globally, and there is an expectation of a volume rush at the end of the quarter. Domestic port inventories have started to rise steadily, increasing supply pressure. Demand from end - users has weakened in the off - season, but steel mills' profitability is okay, and they are not willing to cut production actively. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price rose significantly during the day. There is an expectation of a price increase in the market. Hot - metal production continued to rise slightly to 242.18 tons per day. Coke profit is meager, and coking production has declined from the annual high. Overall coke inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and there is some optimism in the market. Affected by crude - oil price fluctuations, the coke price is weak, but there may be an upward drive [4] Coking Coal - The price rose significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may reduce output. Coking - coal mine production has continued to decline, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and the transaction price has risen slightly. Terminal inventory has continued to decline. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and there is some optimism in the market. Affected by the sharp decline in crude - oil prices, the coking - coal price is in a weak and volatile state, but may be in a strong and volatile state [5] Silicomanganese - The price volatility increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has started to rise, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. Attention should be paid to South 32's far - month contract price for August. In the long - term, manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and in the short - term, the inventory level is low, and mines' willingness to hold prices has increased. In the short - term, the spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are in short supply, and the price has risen slightly. The trading logic on the trading floor is changing faster, and it is bullish in the short - term [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward during the day. Hot - metal production has risen to over 242. Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand remains high. Overall demand is okay. Ferrosilicon supply continues to decline, market transactions are average, and inventory has decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the trading floor and reselling to downstream, which is conducive to inventory depletion. The trading logic on the trading floor is changing faster, and it is bullish in the short - term [7]

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weakened again. There is no bright spot in the off - season demand, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The basis of steel is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is still room for the basis to shrink. The off - season may see the basis repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - The coking coal spot has continued to recover, and the futures have rebounded again. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have improved, but the futures have been under pressure due to factors such as the alleviation of geopolitical conflicts and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable in the short term, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The iron ore shipment is gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight destocking to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally and for the industry clients to actively participate in selling hedging for coking coal and coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On June 25, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2978 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan, - 0.30%), HC2601 at 3099 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan, - 0.19%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan, - 0.33%), HC2510 at 3098 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan, - 0.26%), etc. The cross - month spreads, spreads/price ratios/profits also had corresponding changes [2]. Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou螺纹 were 3050 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and 3140 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively on June 25. The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou热卷 were 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3190 yuan/ton, and 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts for coking coal, the downstream replenished the raw materials appropriately. The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 1140 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and the coking coal price index was 937.1 (+ 0.6). The Mongolian coal market had more inquiries, and the border trade enterprises had a strong willingness to hold prices [5]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and no strong rebound driver. The basis is in a futures - discount - to - spot structure, and there is a possibility of the basis being repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal spot is improving, and the futures have rebounded. However, the futures may be under pressure due to factors such as the potential increase in supply and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - **Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon**: The prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The short - term supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally [6].

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 | 螺纹基差(右轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 | 2025/06/25 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月24日 25 | 2977.00 | 3099.00 | 676. 50 | 1399. ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2977 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 0.6%，持仓增加 1.09 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3070 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.32 | | | | 万吨。近日北方高温南方降雨影响需求，螺纹需求整体处于低位。不过钢厂在转产其他品种以及钢坯出口 | | | | 加大的情况下，螺纹产量也处于低位。现阶段市场供需呈现双弱格局，预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格窄幅震荡运行，收于 703 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下 | 震荡 | | | 跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.4%，成交 29 万手，减仓 0.4 万手。港口现货价格有所下跌， ...