格隆汇2月2日｜今日特高压、光伏板块表现亮眼，电网设备ETF(159326)飙涨3.25%，盘中获资金净申 购1亿份，光伏ETF华夏(515370)涨0.88%。 相关产品： 特高压权重超60%+智能电网含量55%+可控核聚变含量14%"：电网设备ETF(159326)，权重股包括国电 南瑞（国内电网智能龙头）、特变电工（全球特高压设备核心供应商）、思源电气（电力设备研发与制 造）等。该ETF年初至今累计净流入124亿元，位居同类第一。 高纯度光伏产业覆盖：光伏ETF华夏(515370)，权重股包括特变电工（硅料+输变电双龙头）、隆基绿 能（硅片+ BC组件龙头）、阳光电源（全球逆变器王者）。 电力转型全链条：绿电ETF(562550)，核心权重股：长江电力（国内最大水电运营商）、三峡能源（国 内最大的新能源运营商）。 消息面上： ①据央视财经，全球AI算力建设进入爆发期，电力设备变压器正升级为算力基础设施的核心，大量变 压器工厂已经处于满产的状态，其中部分面向数据中心的业务订单都排到了2027年，美国市场交付周期 已经从50周延长至127周。 ②中信证券最新研报指出，太空光伏并非炒作，正在进入规模化部署的前 ...

全国统一容量电价机制如期落地 20260201 摘要 容量电价政策旨在完善电力市场机制，解决峰谷套利和分时电价无法完 全回收成本的问题，为储能行业提供长期投资回报保证，吸引更多投资， 抵消短期政策调整带来的冲击，并促进储能行业长期发展。 国内储能容量电价政策落地和海外户用储能需求高增长将加速储能需求 释放。碳酸锂价格波动率下降，消除市场对终端需求抑制的担忧，为把 握锂离子板块调整机会提供重要时机，建议关注宁德时代等龙头企业。 短期内需关注 2 月春节导致的排产下滑，但预计 3 月将迎来排产高峰。 原材料涨价已逐步向下游传导，头部企业凭借更强的议价能力，盈利受 影响较小。 宁德时代预计 2026 年出货量将保持增长，受益于国内储能市场占有率 提升及欧洲市场高增长。公司通过完善原材料布局和成本传导机制，有 望保持稳定盈利，目前估值具吸引力。 储能政策明确指向独立储能，不包括新能源配储，旨在推动 2025 年及 未来电化学储能装机发展。该政策综合了多省试点结果，各省可根据统 一政策制定细则，利好龙头设备和系统供应商。 Q&A 容量电价机制的设计与传导方式有何不同？ 容量电价机制的设计主要体现在从用户侧传导，而非发电 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.96% to 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66% to 14205.89 points. In contrast, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% to 3346.36 points [1] - A total of 2360 stocks rose and 2703 stocks fell in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total transaction volume of 2.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 394.47 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The telecommunications equipment sector saw a net inflow of 6.534 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector experienced the largest net outflow of 10.049 billion yuan [1] - The genetically modified sector led the gains with an increase of 4.19%, followed by the optical fiber concept sector at 3.94%. Conversely, the silver sector fell by 10%, and the precious metals sector decreased by 8.92% [1] Company Highlights - TBEA's market attention is attributed to its comprehensive advantages as a leading enterprise in the power equipment sector, with a strong performance and sufficient order reserves. The company is actively expanding into AI computing power and solid-state transformers [2] - Hongbaoli's market heat stems from its improved fundamentals and the overall performance of the chemical sector. The company's epoxy propylene project is set to significantly enhance capacity [2] - LEO's increased attention is due to its dual business layout in "smart pumps and systems" and "digital marketing," along with its expansion into AI applications and liquid cooling servers [3] - Tiandi Online is gaining market attention for its forward-looking layout in AI applications and virtual digital fields, despite adjustments in its acquisition plans [3] - Tongding Interconnection's popularity is driven by the rising prosperity of the optical communication industry and its comprehensive business layout [3] - BlueFocus is benefiting from the high prosperity of the AI marketing industry and multiple thematic catalysts, including collaborations with various platforms [4] - Tianqi's focus is on advancements in humanoid robots and lithium battery recycling, with significant progress in its joint projects [4] - The silver sector's market performance is bolstered by strong precious metal prices and the company's strategic business layout [5] - Agricultural Development Industry's attention is heightened by its profit forecast and multiple favorable factors, including a projected net profit increase of over 60% [5] - Hengtong Optic-Electric is gaining market interest due to the recovery of the optical communication industry and the company's technological breakthroughs [6]

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

Group 1 - Huatai Securities reports that the core drivers for the spring market rally have not fundamentally changed, despite recent high volatility in A-shares and a preference for value stocks [1] - The report highlights external factors such as the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which may lead to rising dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets [1] - Internally, the report notes that as the market expands into lower valuation sectors like liquor, the difficulty in capturing excess returns increases, leading to a rise in profit-taking sentiment ahead of the long holiday [1] Group 2 - CICC states that gold surpassing $5,500 per ounce marks an important watershed, indicating that the total value of existing gold ($38.2 trillion) is now comparable to the total amount of U.S. debt ($38.5 trillion) for the first time since the 1980s [2] - This shift suggests signs of loosening in the global financial structure established post-Bretton Woods, which was anchored by the dollar and supported by U.S. debt [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the liquor sector has undergone about a 5-year adjustment, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows [3] - The market sentiment towards the liquor sector is currently pessimistic, and a recovery in the overall industry fundamentals will require a revival in external macro demand [3] - However, Tianfeng Securities believes that stock prices may lead the recovery in fundamentals, with the stabilization of Moutai prices serving as a positive signal for marginal improvement [3]

2025 年 A 股业绩前瞻：结构分化加剧，资源与制造板块领跑 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 一、业绩预告全景：整体偏弱，分化显著 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日共有 2963 家上市公司披露业绩预警，整体喜忧参半，但以"报 忧"为主基调。"报喜"类（预增、续盈、略增、扭亏）公司共 1095 家，占比约 37%； "报忧"类（预减、略减、续亏、首亏）公司则有 1867 家，占比约 63%。整体来看， 2025 年上市公司盈利整体呈现企稳回升趋势，但整体仍处于弱通道。另外，不少企业 盈利同比有所改善，但分化明显，仍有大批公司未能实现盈利增长。 相关报告 行业方面，2025 年出现集中"报喜"的行业有非银金融，有色金属，美容护理，汽车 与公用事业。集中"报忧"的行业有煤炭，房地产，轻工制造，食品饮料和建筑装饰。 非银金融板块集体预增，业绩预警表现远好于其他行业， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a cooling sentiment due to a wave of ETF sell-offs and significant fluctuations in international gold and silver prices, but the overall A-share index is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival and enter a new upward trend afterward [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The recent volatility in international precious metal prices is attributed to the breaking of dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's chair nomination, profit-taking, and the speculative nature of silver amplifying price swings [2]. - A significant sell-off in broad-based ETFs has led to liquidity pressure and a noticeable decline in sentiment indices, indicating a potential short-term market correction [3][4]. - Despite the short-term pressure, the overall A-share index is anticipated to have limited adjustment space and is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, with a new upward trend likely to follow [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Sector Rotation - The company maintains a long-term positive outlook on the "technology + resource products" dual mainline strategy, with short-term market style rotation accelerating [1][4]. - Key sectors to focus on include power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries), non-bank financials, banks, AI (optical communication, storage), coal power, home appliances, automobiles, and steel [1][4]. - The upcoming Spring season is expected to benefit from ample capital inflow and favorable policies, supporting the growth of technology sectors and potentially leading to a rebound in previously underperforming financial and midstream manufacturing sectors [4].

Market Overview - Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair sparked hawkish market expectations, leading to a rise in PPI inflation data and a decline in US stocks, with the S&P 500 down 0.43%, Dow Jones down 0.36%, and Nasdaq down 0.94% [1] - The dollar rose 0.84%, marking its largest single-day increase since May 2025, while gold prices plummeted by 10%, falling below $4900 [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.36%, with notable movements in Chinese stocks, including Yilong Energy soaring over 3000% and Kingsoft Cloud dropping 7% [1] Commodity and Bond Market - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 1.21 basis points, while the 2-year yield fell by 3 basis points [2] - Oil prices initially followed the downward trend of other commodities but later increased, with January seeing a rise of over 14%, marking the best monthly performance since July 2023 [3] AI and Technology Developments - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the company's participation in a significant investment round for OpenAI, potentially the largest in history [7] - The FCC approved SpaceX's application to deploy a million satellites to create an AI data center network in orbit [8] - A German team developed a high-performance single-photon source, achieving a 92% interference visibility, a breakthrough for quantum communication [9][16] Domestic Developments - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee issued a plan to accelerate the construction of an AI city by 2026-2027, focusing on creating an open-source collaborative ecosystem [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a new pricing mechanism for energy storage, aiming to enhance the development of the storage sector [16] Stock Market Strategies - Analysts predict that the recent ETF redemption wave is ending, providing a recovery window for large-cap stocks, with a shift from small-cap to large-cap and from themes to quality [12] - The A-share market is expected to maintain upward momentum supported by favorable domestic fundamentals and policies, despite external disturbances [11] Company Earnings Forecasts - New Yi Sheng forecasts a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed products [19] - Guoxuan High-Tech anticipates a net profit of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for 2025, benefiting from the rapid growth in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets [20] - Zhongjin Company expects a net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan for 2025, driven by robust growth in investment banking and wealth management sectors [21]

Group 1 - The Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 will start on February 2 and end on March 13 [2] - The AWE Asia 2026 will be held in Singapore from February 2 to 4 [3] - Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging will resume trading on February 2 after completing their verification work [4] - Minexplosion Optoelectronics will resume trading on February 2, planning to acquire a PCB drilling needle target [5] - Yisiwei will issue shares on February 2 with a price of 55.95 yuan and a P/E ratio of 90.39 times, focusing on automotive manufacturing machine vision equipment [5] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is improving the strategic investor system for listed companies, expanding the types of strategic investors and clarifying minimum shareholding requirements [7] - Public fund information disclosure rules are undergoing significant revisions, requiring the disclosure of long-term performance over the past 7 and 10 years [8] - The manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing optimization in the manufacturing industry structure [8] - The draft of the Cybercrime Prevention Law has been released for public consultation, aiming to clarify real-name system requirements to curb online crime [8] - Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell below $4,800 per ounce, marking a drop of over 10%, the largest single-day decline since the 1980s [8] Group 3 - The capacity price mechanism for electricity has been established, which is expected to accelerate the development of new energy storage [13] - The new policy will promote the development of the storage sector, addressing bottlenecks in the current power system [13] - Domestic new energy storage's flexible adjustment capabilities are increasingly prominent, enhancing the stability and safety of the power system [13] - Yangguang Power's storage shipments are expected to grow by 70% year-on-year by Q3 2025, with overseas shipments increasing from 63% to 83% [13] Group 4 - The global demand for transformers is surging, with orders for some factories extending to 2027 due to the rapid growth of AI computing power [15] - The supply gap for power transformers in North America has reached 30%, with imports expected to account for 80% of the supply [15] - The average export price of transformers from China has risen from $12,000 per unit in 2020 to $20,800 by 2025, indicating a potential increase in both volume and price [15] Group 5 - Yuanbao has launched a 1 billion yuan cash red envelope campaign, intensifying competition in the AI application market [17] - Major AI assistant apps from Tencent and ByteDance are leading the free app rankings, indicating strong market competition [17] - Companies like Runjian Co. and iFLYTEK are advancing their AI models and services, aiming for significant growth in user scale and commercialization [18] Group 6 - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 89.5% to 128.2% [20] - New Yiseng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 231.2% to 248.9% [20] - Runze Technology forecasts a net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179.3% to 196.0% [20] - Jerey Co. signed a gas turbine generator sales contract worth $182 million (approximately 1.265 billion yuan) for data center power supply [21]

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing a shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, indicating a transition from speculative themes to quality investments [1][2] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair reflects a policy shift towards "real economy" in the U.S., which could significantly impact global risk assets [1][2] - A recovery window for large-cap stocks is anticipated as the recent wave of ETF redemptions comes to an end [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to see a structural rotation, with a focus on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as electric equipment, chemicals, and renewable energy [2][3] - The upcoming spring season is likely to bring a recovery in consumer and real estate sectors, aligning with manufacturing and technology trends [1][3] - The market is projected to maintain a structural fluctuation, with a focus on sectors that show clear profit recovery paths, particularly in manufacturing and resources [4][5] Group 3 - The recent adjustment in the metals market is attributed to a reversal in the narrative surrounding "dollar credit loosening" and liquidity expectations, leading to profit-taking after historical highs [5][6] - Recommendations include focusing on physical assets and sectors with confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as chemicals and non-bank financials [5][6] - The outlook for the commodities market remains positive, driven by geopolitical factors and structural supply-demand gaps [9][10] Group 4 - The spring market is expected to be influenced by favorable policies and fundamental factors, with a potential for new upward trends post-holiday [7][8] - The focus should remain on growth and cyclical sectors, particularly those with strong earnings forecasts, such as electronics and machinery [7][8] - The market is likely to experience a brief correction before resuming its upward trajectory, with investors advised to hold positions through the holiday [7][8] Group 5 - The outlook for the refining sector is optimistic, with expectations of significant price increases driven by abundant dollar liquidity and a potential supercycle in commodities [21][22] - The refining sector is seen as the next area for growth, similar to the recent performance of the metals sector, with substantial upside potential [21][22] - The market is expected to reach new highs, with recommendations to continue investing in sectors like metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [21][22]