>>>>> ETF早知道 >>>>> ETF早知道 ETFEFR酒 WP Fund wabao <<<< 3555 ETFORTS 710715 Sep ETF星知道 1 C EFEFR演 cere 市场温度计 3333 ETFE 明波 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 -- 75% - 75% *** 75% -- 2596 ++ 25% -- 2595 ETFEFR酒 (CCCC -1.15% -1.06% -1.64% > > 上证指数 深证成指 创业板指 注:温度计水粮条由对应指数的近十年市盈丰分位数表示,总值为100%。数据来源:iFind,配至 2025.9.18,上证指数,深证成指、创业板指的近十年市盈率分位数分别为97.7%、84.12%、50.68% 官 相关闭 e CD e 6 前位到了 ETF是例邊 (4) 短期轮动走向 · 观九宫热力值 +0.93% +0.19% +0.03% 电子 通信 社会服务 FEFAN -0.33% -0.39% -2.25% 传媒 家用电器 汽车 -2.81% -2.85% -3.56% ETFEFR海 非银金融 综合 有色金属 ceee 数据来源:iFind,截 ...

Group 1 - The trend of "Finance + Technology" is expected to continue, with a focus on strong industrial sectors such as artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from a weaker dollar [1] - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively, with attention on the short-term cooling of market sentiment and potential high-low trading opportunities [2] - Long-term support for the technology sector is anticipated due to favorable policies and technological innovations, particularly in advanced manufacturing like renewable energy and electric vehicles [3] Group 2 - The AI industry is forming a significant market trend, with domestic computing power developing a closed loop from industrial breakthroughs to initial performance realization [4] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, technology and certain core assets are expected to outperform, with historical data showing strong performance in sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals [5] - The market is shifting towards large-cap technology growth, with recommendations for major technology ETFs as smaller and dividend stocks show signs of weakness [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the positive changes in the market ecosystem since the implementation of the "package of financial support measures for high-quality economic development" on September 24, 2024, focusing on serving new productive forces and promoting high-quality economic development [1] - Over 90% of newly listed companies belong to strategic emerging industries, indicating a strong trend towards innovation and technology-driven sectors [2][4] - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, with over 210 major asset restructuring projects disclosed, reflecting a focus on core business and industrial cooperation [4][5] Group 2 - The capital market is increasingly supporting technological and industrial innovation, with policies like the "1+6" reform for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board facilitating resource integration through M&A [2][3] - R&D investment by A-share listed companies exceeded 810 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.27%, with an acceleration in growth rate compared to the previous year [2] - The introduction of innovative payment tools for M&A, such as convertible bonds and equity payments, has reduced short-term cash flow pressure for companies, promoting industry upgrades [5] Group 3 - Strict regulatory measures have been implemented to maintain order in the capital market, with over 30 companies penalized for financial fraud this year, including five companies receiving fines exceeding 100 million yuan [6] - A comprehensive accountability system has been established to combat financial fraud, enhancing regulatory deterrence and fostering a market environment where fraud is less likely to occur [6]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 19 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 指数放量调整 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3831.66 | -1.15% | -44.68 | | | 深证成指 | 13075.66 | -1.06% | -139.80 | | | 沪深 300 | 4498.11 | -1.16% | -52.91 | | | 创业板 | 3095.85 | -1.64% | -51.49 | | | 科创 50 | 1380.35 | 0.72% | 9.92 | | | 北证 50 | 1591.17 | -1.01% | -16.27 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 申万行业表现前五 申万行业表现后五 概念板块表现前五 ◼ 概念板块表现后五 电子 0.93% 有色金属 -3.56% F5G 概念 1.45% 金属铅 -3.94% 通信 0.19% 综合 -2.85% 共封装光学 （CPO） 1.35% 金属锌 -3.88% 社会 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with all three major indices falling, while the Sci-Tech 50 index rose against the trend, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2][4] - The electronic, telecommunications, and social services sectors led the gains, while the metal materials, mining, comprehensive finance, insurance, and agricultural products sectors saw corrections [2][4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.06%, the ChiNext Index by 1.64%, the SSE 50 by 1.35%, and the CSI 300 by 1.16%. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 rose by 0.72%, and the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.04%. The total market turnover was approximately 3.17 trillion yuan [2][7][12] - Among the Longjiang primary industries, electronics (+0.93%), telecommunications (+0.31%), and social services (+0.29%) were the top performers, while metal materials and mining (-3.16%), comprehensive finance (-3.00%), and insurance (-2.22%) lagged [7][12] Market Drivers - The decline in the A-share market was accompanied by increased trading volume, returning to high levels. AI computing hardware stocks led the gains, while sectors such as trading software, rare metals, and industrial metals experienced corrections [7][12] - The market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of a "slow bull" trend in the A-share market, driven by ample liquidity and the potential for long-term capital inflows [12][13] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus should be on sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, including fiberglass, cement, fine chemicals, and other materials. Additionally, technology growth sectors such as AI computing and robotics should be monitored [12][13] - Long-term perspectives favor sectors benefiting from "de-involution" trends, including metals, transportation, chemicals, and lithium batteries, as well as high-end manufacturing technologies like AI and robotics [12][13]

文|凯风 一线城市的天花板，又抬高了。 日前召开的主题发布会透露，"十四五"收官时（2025年末），北京GDP将站上5万亿台阶。 这意味着，继上海之后，北京将成为全国第二个5万亿城市，与深圳、广州、香港等拉开差距。 北京上海经济为何这么猛？广深能否再次迎头赶上？ 01 京沪GDP迈进5万亿，意味着什么？ 环顾国际，180多个国家和地区中，GDP超过5万亿（约7000亿美元）的仅有20多个。 这一数字，超过瑞典、比利时、泰国等国家，一城可敌一国，说是"富可敌国"不算夸张。 放眼国内，GDP超过5万亿的省份只有11个，京沪GDP已超近2/3省域。 京沪是省级的直辖市，也是严格意义上的城市，属于万亿俱乐部的领头羊。 目前，我国内地共有27个万亿GDP城市，未来几年有望扩容到30席。 这意味着，万亿城市早已不再稀缺，万亿GDP的含金量也不复以往。 毕竟，同为万亿城市，但经济梯度相当明显： 5万亿的京沪，4万亿的深广渝，2万亿的苏成杭武，1.5万亿-2万亿还有6座城市，万亿区间更有10多座城市。 当京沪联袂跻身5万亿，GDP10强城市也将集体站上2万亿，这是新的竞争起点。 02 京沪GDP，何以与广深拉开差距？ 过去2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the positive changes in the market ecosystem since the implementation of the "package of financial support measures for high-quality economic development" on September 24, 2024, with a focus on serving new productive forces and enhancing the efficiency and attractiveness of the capital market [1][2] - Over 90% of newly listed companies belong to strategic emerging industries, indicating a strong alignment with national economic priorities [2][4] - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, with over 210 major asset restructuring projects disclosed, reflecting a trend towards focusing on core businesses and industry collaboration [4][5] Group 2 - The "1+N" policy framework aims to deepen the integration of capital market reforms with technological innovation and industrial upgrades, enhancing the overall market structure [1][2] - The private equity and venture capital sectors have become increasingly active, with 90% of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Beijing Stock Exchange, and Growth Enterprise Market being supported by these funds [2][3] - The introduction of innovative payment tools for M&A, such as convertible bonds and equity payments, has encouraged companies to pursue acquisitions without significantly increasing short-term cash flow pressure [5][6] Group 3 - Strict regulatory measures have been implemented to maintain market order and protect the rights of small investors, with over 30 companies penalized for financial fraud this year alone [6] - The regulatory environment has fostered a culture of accountability, with a comprehensive system in place to deter financial misconduct and enhance market integrity [6]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新货币政策会议纪要，决定将联邦基 金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4%—4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次 降息后的再次降息。 据悉，此次政策调整的背后，是美联储平衡通胀与就业的现实考量。近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活 动增长放缓，就业增长放缓。经济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。尽管美国通胀率有所 上升，并维持在略高水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联储终于采取降息措施。 今年首次降息 一如市场预期，美联储降息25基点。当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4% —4.25%之间的水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，降息旨在提振劳 动力市场。 这是美联储今年以来的首次降息。9个月时间，也是一场关于通胀预期与经济数据的博弈。2025年上半 年，美联储历次议息会议将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%之间不变，多名官员强调"在降 息之前，需要看到通胀进一步下降的证据"。到6月，美联储内部意见分歧明显，联邦公开市场委员会会 议纪要显示，19名官员中只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% is expected to positively impact the valuation of Chinese assets, particularly benefiting Chinese concept stocks and the technology sector in Hong Kong in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Chinese Assets - The recent interest rate cut is anticipated to lead to a rally in Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.85% on September 17 [2]. - Companies like Xunlei and Baidu saw significant stock price increases, with gains exceeding 11%, while Alibaba reached a four-year high with a 2.44% increase [2]. - The depreciation of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, from 7.3 to approximately 7.1 since 2025, is expected to enhance foreign investment in Chinese assets [2][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Historical trends indicate that after Fed rate cuts, growth sectors in A-shares and H-shares tend to outperform, aligning with the current performance of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech stocks [3]. - Analysts predict that the current rate cut is just the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of further cuts in October and December, potentially lowering rates to between 3.0% and 3.25% by mid-2024 [5][6]. - The overall liquidity in the global market is expected to remain ample, benefiting risk assets, including A-shares and H-shares [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The resilience of Chinese assets during the Fed's rate-cutting period is attributed to their stable asset quality and the appeal of Chinese assets as safe investments amid global capital seeking higher returns [4]. - The ongoing economic transformation in China and improvements in economic visibility are expected to support the performance of Chinese equities in the long term [6]. - The potential for artificial intelligence to become a mid-term investment theme is highlighted, with foreign investors showing a positive attitude towards Chinese assets [6][7].

个股收跌居多，共计4350只个股收跌，8只跌停；1027只个股收涨，涨停股64只。工商银行、农业银行、招商银行、 建设银行跌幅均超过2%，东方财富跌近5%，贵州茅台、中国石油、中国海油等也纷纷收跌。 多位投资人士表示，此类技术性回调属于正常震荡，不必过度解读为系统性风险，无需恐慌。隔夜美联储降息落地， 并无超出预期的表现。临近国庆长假，部分获利盘有落袋为安的需求。若成交额维持在2.5万亿元以上，市场有望延续 结构性行情；若缩量至2.2万亿元以下，可能会回踩支撑位。 A股突然"晴转雨" 午后A股市场出现急跌，指数纷纷翻绿，沪指收跌1.15%报3831.66点，创业板指收跌1.64%报3095.85点，深证成指收跌 1.06%。科创50盘中一度涨逾4%，但最终涨幅缩至0.72%；沪深300、上证50、北证50跌幅均超过1%。 9月18日，随着美联储降息靴子落地，A股市场盘中大幅跳水，三大指数收盘集体跌逾1%，超4300只个股飘绿。 今日市场放量急跌是否引发了恐慌情绪？牛市是否就此结束？ 午后市场跳水，多数板块收跌，但资金对科技股的青睐依旧明显。电子、通信板块最终微弱收红，和而泰、科森科 技、广合科技、华正新材、永 ...