01 涨跌速览 本周 股市场整体承压运行，主要指数普遍收跌，结构性分化特征进一步加剧。 数据显示，全市场 41 个主要指数中仅有 2 个实现周度上涨，其余指数 不同程度下行。科创 50 、创业板指跌幅居前，大盘价值风格相对稳健，小微盘股跌势有所放缓，而中盘股成为本轮调整的重点区域。 从市场整体表现看，本周并未出现系统性恐慌性下跌，但风险偏好持续回落，节前资金谨慎特征显著。 行业层面，本周 A 股延续明显轮动特征。 日常消费、工业等防御性和早周期板块表现相对占优，成为资金阶段性避险的重要方向；与此同时，信息技 术、材料等前期涨幅较大的成长板块出现明显回调，科技与资源类板块调整压力集中释放。 个股层面，周涨幅居前的标的以超跌小盘股和部分消费防御类个股为主 ；而周跌幅榜中，贵金属、科技板块个股集中回调，此前高估值、高弹性方向的 去风险过程仍在延续。 户 外 缩量缓跌、情绪筑底, 节前市场进入防守与观望阶段 行业轮动:消费防御领涨, 成长板块深度回调体调整 本周A股行业轮动日常消费、工业等防御性与早周期板 块领涨,信息技术、材料等前期热门成长板块大幅回调。 行业周涨跌幅 (%) 2026.02.02 - 2026.0 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in technology growth, certain cyclical, and consumer sectors before the holiday, with potential outperformers including automotive, military, beauty care, machinery, and communication industries for the 2025 annual report performance [1][3] - The consumer sector's short-term rebound may be a valuation correction, with its sustainability under observation due to weak consumer confidence, lack of profit inflection points, and significant valuation recovery already observed [1][3][36] - Current valuations in growing sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, computers, and machinery are relatively low, indicating potential for future growth [1][3] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that after adjustments in the spring market, leading sectors supported by policy and industry trends may regain their advantage, particularly technology growth and cyclical sectors [1][3][24] - The report highlights that sectors with strong annual report performance growth forecasts, such as automotive (471.5%), military (398.4%), beauty care (378.3%), machinery (275.6%), and communication (242.1%), are likely to perform well in the short term [1][3][32] - The consumer sector has shown a long-term downtrend since 2021, with six rebound instances averaging 21.56% in magnitude, driven by consumer confidence, low valuations, and profit growth [1][3][36]

Market Overview - The market exhibited weak fluctuations with continued volume contraction from February 2 to February 6, influenced significantly by global factors, particularly concerns over tightening liquidity and changes in AI narratives, leading to a decline in risk appetite [1][16] - Defensive sectors such as consumer and financial performed relatively well, while previously high-performing technology growth and cyclical sectors experienced corrections, indicating a clear style shift [1][16] Index Performance - Major indices showed the following weekly changes: - Shanghai Composite Index: -1.27%, PE (TTM): 16.92, PB: 1.54 [18] - CSI 300: -1.33%, PE (TTM): 14.08, PB: 1.48 [18] - Shenzhen Component Index: -2.11%, PE (TTM): 32.28, PB: 2.84 [18] - ChiNext Index: -3.28%, PE (TTM): 41.84, PB: 5.63 [18] Sector Performance - The following sectors showed notable weekly performance: - Food and Beverage: +4.31%, PE (TTM): 22.20, PB: 4.03 [20] - Beauty and Personal Care: +3.69%, PE (TTM): 40.37, PB: 3.35 [20] - Power Equipment: +2.20%, PE (TTM): 41.48, PB: 3.45 [20] - Non-bank Financials and Non-ferrous Metals performed well, while traditional industries still need recovery [26] Key Influencing Factors - Earnings forecasts indicate a continued recovery in listed company profits, with 53.6% of 3,057 companies reporting positive forecasts as of January 31 [26] - Leverage funds slightly decreased, with the financing balance at 26,640.54 billion, down by 346 billion from January 30 [26][11] - Expectations of tightening overseas liquidity continue to grow, with the US dollar index rebounding above 97, leading to volatility in risk assets [12][27] - Mixed US economic data was reported, with the ISM manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6 from 47.9, while ADP employment data fell short of expectations, adding to labor market concerns [13][28] Future Outlook - Concerns over global liquidity tightening may have been priced in, with uncertainty remaining about whether the Federal Reserve will actually reduce its balance sheet this year [29] - The overall risk premium in the A-share market has returned to a historically low level, with limited upward space driven by valuations; corporate earnings will be crucial for market upward movement [29]

Market Review - The market experienced a volatile upward trend in January, with increased activity and risk appetite, particularly in small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, reflecting a spring rally [1] - In the first half of January, themes such as commercial aerospace and AI applications gained traction, leading to a sustained increase in trading volume and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high [1] - Mid-January saw policy signals that cooled market enthusiasm, resulting in a shift to a more stable phase, with cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals performing strongly due to price increase cues [1] Market Outlook - The U.S. actions in Venezuela and Greenland, along with statements at the Davos Forum, indicate a clear intention to alter the existing international order, accelerating the end of the old system [2] - The transition from efficiency to security prioritization in global order reconstruction will increase the importance of supply chain and resource security, driving demand for physical assets like gold, energy, and key minerals [2] - The evolution of the global order will continue to erode the dollar liquidity system centered around U.S. Treasuries, with the misuse of long-arm jurisdiction by the U.S. accelerating the de-dollarization process, significantly impacting global capital flows [2] Economic Insights - China's GDP growth in Q4 2025 exceeded expectations at 4.5%, supported by a balance between new and old economic drivers, despite traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure being sluggish [3] - The transition to a stable asset-liability ratio for households is underway, as the decline in property prices and stock markets has led to a reduction in total wealth, but with a stabilization trend expected as loans cease to grow [3] - The decline in the proportion of real estate in total assets will lessen the impact of falling property prices on household wealth, coupled with ongoing growth in savings, contributing to the recovery of the traditional economy [3] Core Asset Revaluation - China’s stable policy environment, complete supply chain, and large market size provide a relatively certain investment landscape [4] - The focus on domestic demand in 2026, along with the stabilization of household asset-liability ratios, is expected to support the recovery of the traditional economy and enhance global confidence in China [4] - Since Q3 2025, net inflows of foreign exchange have been observed, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. and a trend of RMB appreciation, which will bolster domestic asset prices [4] Investment Strategy - The market's upward momentum in 2024 and 2025 will primarily be driven by valuation, with signs of profit stabilization in 2025 contributing less to market growth [5] - The current risk premium in A-shares has returned to a historically low level, limiting the space for further valuation-driven market increases [5] - In 2026, high-growth sectors such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and traditional industries are expected to see profit recovery, with performance becoming a key driver for market advancement [6] - Investment focus will be on two main themes: high-growth industries like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and military, as well as sectors like transportation, discretionary consumption, and real estate that are improving supply-demand dynamics [6]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model is constructed based on a dual-layer selection process that integrates fundamental and technical analysis. The stock pool is initially built using analyst recommendation events, such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. Stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period spans from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.08% and an excess return of 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state[14][15][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor is based on the concept of momentum and trend-following strategies, which are particularly effective in the Hong Kong stock market. The factor emphasizes stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high, with a specific calculation formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Here, $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate the degree of pullback from the high. Stocks are further filtered based on analyst attention, relative strength, price stability, and trend continuation metrics[20][22][23] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model show an annualized return of 19.08%, an excess return of 18.06%, and an information ratio (IR) of 1.19 over the entire sample period. The maximum drawdown was 23.73%, with a tracking error of 14.60% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.76[19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks such as Nine Dragons Paper, with the highest number of stocks coming from the cyclical sector (14 stocks), followed by consumer, manufacturing, financial, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors. Specific stocks include Nine Dragons Paper, China Eastern Airlines, and Pacific Basin Shipping, among others[22][23][28]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in French exports to the United States, particularly in sectors such as spirits, wine, cosmetics, and leather goods, due to U.S. tariff policies and exchange rate factors [1] Export Performance - In the fourth quarter of the previous year, French exports to the U.S. (excluding the aerospace sector) decreased by 13% year-on-year [1] - Specific declines included a 47% drop in spirits exports, a 39% decrease in wine exports, a 25% decline in perfumes and cosmetics, and a 15% reduction in leather goods [1] Overall Trade Figures - For the entire year of 2025, France's total export value increased by 2.5% compared to the previous year, reaching €614.7 billion, driven mainly by the aerospace, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and metallurgy sectors [1] - In contrast, the total import value grew only by 0.7% to €703.6 billion, influenced by a decline in energy prices [1] Trade Surplus - France's food trade surplus fell to €200 million, marking the lowest level in at least 25 years [1] Future Outlook - According to Allianz Trade economist Maxime Dalmé, France's overall foreign trade competitiveness remained stable last year, with strong global demand for aerospace and military equipment expected to help improve the trade deficit in 2026 [1]

注：上证指数近10年（2016年至2025年）春节前5个交易日涨跌幅情况 随着春节假期临近，A股行情即将迈入最后一周，投资者纷纷聚焦今年能否继续迎来"红包行情"。从历 史数据上看，上证指数近10年节前5个交易日上涨比例达7成，平均涨幅近0.2%。其中，在2021年、 2024年、2023年节前，上证指数涨势较优，而在2022年、2020年、2018年节前则表现不佳。 受节前交易转淡影响，A股市场近期量能数据持续下滑，沪深京三市今日成交额2.16万亿元，继续刷新 年内最低纪录。其中，作为观测市场情绪关键指标的融资余额近日也大幅回落，截至2月5日数据，A股 融资余额目前规模达2.66万亿元，已连续6个交易日出现下降态势，并创1月12日以来近4周新低，期间 累计净卖额达611.9亿元。 双创指数表现较优，55%板块节前获收涨 市场主要指数方面，在近10年节前5个交易日期间，科创50、创业板指表现较优，平均涨幅分别达 2.4%、2.2%，同时以中证500、沪深300为代表的中盘股、大盘股指数表现优于以中证2000、国证2000 为代表的小微盘股。以上涨比例统计（不足10年以实际年份统计），创业板指、深证成指、红利指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing sector is poised for significant growth and transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on stabilizing the economy, advancing industrial upgrades, and fostering innovation to enhance competitiveness and sustainability [1][15]. Group 1: Stability - The reasonable growth of China's manufacturing output is essential for solidifying the economic foundation and supporting quality improvements in the industry [2]. - Key industrial provinces play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth, contributing 80% of the industrial output value [2]. - The focus on stabilizing key industries, such as automotive and electronics, is vital for maintaining industrial economic growth [2][3]. - The government plans to implement new growth strategies for ten key industries to ensure long-term stability in the industrial economy [2]. Group 2: Progress - The effective enhancement of quality in China's manufacturing will strengthen core competitiveness and promote high-quality development [5]. - The growth rates for major manufacturing sectors, such as equipment and high-tech manufacturing, are projected to exceed the overall industrial growth rate by significant margins [5]. - The focus on high-end manufacturing and technological innovation will drive the industry towards higher value chains [6]. - The digital transformation of manufacturing is emphasized as a key strategy for improving quality and efficiency [6][7]. Group 3: New Growth Drivers - The cultivation of new quality productivity is essential for restructuring and revitalizing the manufacturing sector [9]. - Emerging industries, characterized by high technology and value, are seen as critical for driving economic growth and transitioning to sustainable development [9][10]. - Traditional industries will undergo significant upgrades, leveraging new technologies to support the growth of emerging sectors [10]. - Future industries will be strategically developed to ensure early positioning in high-potential areas such as quantum technology and artificial intelligence [11]. Group 4: Innovation - Technological innovation is identified as a core element for driving new productivity and enhancing industrial vitality [12]. - The government aims to increase high-quality technological supply by focusing on key industry needs and supporting major technological projects [13]. - Enterprises are recognized as the main drivers of R&D investment, with government policies aimed at further stimulating innovation [13][14]. - A collaborative innovation ecosystem will be established to facilitate the integration of various innovation resources into the manufacturing sector [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a cooling trend in leveraged funds, with the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets falling below 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from "exuberance" to "rationality" due to multiple factors including high valuation adjustments, regulatory policy guidance, and pre-holiday risk aversion [1][4]. Group 1: Margin Balance Data - As of February 5, the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,808.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 120.12 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [2][4]. - The margin balance has declined for six consecutive trading days since January 29, with a total reduction of 617.83 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Cooling of Leverage - The recent cooling of leveraged funds is primarily influenced by regulatory policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and heightened risk aversion ahead of the Spring Festival [4][5]. - A key regulatory change on January 14 raised the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, increasing the cost of opening positions and suppressing new financing demand, particularly affecting small investors' willingness to engage in high-volatility tech stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flow - The market is currently in a "trading vacuum" period before the holiday, with overall sentiment shifting from "exuberance" to "rationality," as evidenced by a decline in both the margin balance as a percentage of circulating market value and average daily trading volume [5]. - There is a noticeable shift in fund flow, with significant withdrawals from the technology sector and a rotation towards defensive assets such as coal and power, indicating a trend of "selling tech and buying coal" [7]. Group 4: ETF Market and Future Outlook - The ETF margin balance has also decreased, with a total of 1,216.06 billion yuan as of February 5, reflecting a reduction in leveraged exposure to high-volatility assets [8]. - Looking ahead, the activity level of leveraged funds will depend on three key signals: the return of northbound capital and ETF financing post-holiday, clarity in policy expectations, and the liquidity conditions in the interbank market [9].

以下文章来源于创业板观察 ，作者梓隆 创业板观察 . 创业板观察致力于发布深交所创业板的市场发展、政策变化、监管导向、上市企业动态等的及时信息， 提供有价值的市场资讯。 随着春节假期临近，A股行情即将迈入最后一周，投资者纷纷聚焦今年能否继续迎来"红包行 情"。 从历史数据上看，上证指数近10年节前5个交易日上涨比例达7成，平均涨幅近0.2%。 其中，在2021年、2024年、2023年节前，上证指数涨势较优，而在2022年、2020年、 2018年节前则表现不佳。 注：上证指数近10年（2016年至2025年）春节前5个交易日涨跌幅情况 双创指数表现较优，55%板块节前获收涨 市场主要指数方面，在近10年节前5个交易日期间，科创50、创业板指表现较优，平均涨幅分 别达2.4%、2.2%，同时以中证500、沪深300为代表的中盘股、大盘股指数表现优于以中证 2000、国证2000为代表的小微盘股。以上涨比例统计（不足10年以实际年份统计），创业板 指、深证成指、红利指数、科创50、北证50指数该比例在六成以上。 注：市场主要指数近10年（2016年至2025年）节前5日上涨比例及平均涨跌幅 行业层面来看，31个 ...