| 总量研究 2 | | --- | | 上周观点 2 | | 重点报告 2 | | 行业研究 4 | | 上周观点 4 | | 重点报告 5 | | 公司研究 6 | | 重点报告 6 | | 重点报告摘要 7 | | 总量研究 7 | | 行业研究 9 | | 公司研究 11 | 一周观点 总量研究 上周观点 | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然 | | | 策略 | 有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨 | 张宇生 | | | 幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于 | | | | 稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 | | | | 上周黄金价格上涨，国内权益市场指数集体回调,医药主题基金表现占优，TMT 主题基金回撤 | | | 金工 | 明显。不同投资范围的 ETF 资金均呈现流入，TMT、科创主题 ETF 受被动资金加仓，以恒生 | 祁嫣然 | | | 互联网 ETF 为代表的港 ...

Economic Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline in sectors such as energy metals, power equipment, and electronics, while defensive sectors like agriculture, home appliances, and banking have performed relatively better [1] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 14.7% [2] - Industrial production has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for the first ten months, and a drop to 4.9% in October compared to the previous month [2] Financial Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion compared to the same month last year, while the social financing scale increased by 816.1 billion, down by 595.9 billion year-on-year [3] - M2 growth has slowed to 8.2%, down from 8.4%, and M1 growth has decreased to 6.2%, reflecting a cautious approach from enterprises towards investment [3] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have raised concerns about persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts in December [4] - The domestic economic data has shown a downward trend, suggesting that the stock index may enter a phase of adjustment in the short term [4]

2025.11. 24 本文字数：827，阅读时长大约2分钟 主力资金全天净流入传媒、航天航空、汽车整车等板块，净流出半导体、电子、证券等板块。 具体到个股来看，蓝色光标、三六零、长城军工获净流入13.17亿元、10亿元、8.42亿元。 净流出方面，工业富联、新易盛、中际旭创遭抛售27.43亿元、11.94亿元、11.13亿元。 作者 | 一财阿驴 11月24日，A股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.05%，深证成指涨0.37%，创业板指 涨0.31%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | m | 3836.77 | 1.87 | 0.05% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | my | 12585.08 | 47.01 | 0.37% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | While | 2929.04 | 8.97 | 0.31% | 盘面上，军工、卫星导航、低空经济、AI应用、云计算、6G、电商概念股表现活跃；锂电池产业链 再度回调，锂矿方向领跌； ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Credit Business Weekly Report - How to View the Recent Correction in the A-share Technology Sector - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Analyst: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu - Research Institution: Zhongtai Securities Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current correction in the A-share technology sector is mainly due to the adjustment of US AI leaders, the year - end defensive strategy of institutional funds, and the decline in trading motivation of leveraged funds during the policy vacuum period. However, the technology market is far from over and is expected to continue after a short - term correction [6][7]. - Mid - term, the A - share market still has upward potential under multiple factors, and investors are advised to make mid - term layouts around four main lines: Hong Kong technology leaders, vertical applications brought by the AI technological revolution, innovative drugs and medical AI, and high - dividend asset allocation [7]. Market Review Market Performance - Last week, most major market indices declined, with the ChiNext Index having the largest decline of - 6.15%, and the Shanghai 50 Index having the smallest decline of - 2.72% [8][9]. - Among the large - scale industry indices, the Telecommunication Services Index and the Daily Consumption Index performed relatively well, with weekly declines of - 1.24% and - 2.28% respectively; the Materials Index and the Healthcare Index performed weakly, with declines of - 7.49% and - 6.79% respectively [8][9]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, no industry rose. The industries with smaller declines were banks, media, and food and beverage, with declines of 0.89%, 1.25%, and 1.44% respectively; the industries with larger declines were power equipment, basic chemicals, and commercial retail, with declines of 10.54%, 7.47%, and 7.24% respectively [8][14][17]. Trading Heat - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1865.036 billion yuan (previous value: 2043.827 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (85.60% of the three - year historical quantile) [8][21]. Valuation Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 21.27, a decrease of - 0.93 from the previous week, at the 86.70% quantile of the past five - year history. None of the 30 Shenwan primary industries saw a valuation (PE_TTM) recovery [8][28]. Market Observation Reasons for the A - share Technology Sector Correction - The adjustment of the A - share technology sector is mainly due to the adjustment of US AI leaders. The high valuation of US AI leaders has led to discussions about the bubble, and the decrease in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased volatility. The A - share technology sector is affected by the US due to industrial chain correlation and valuation benchmarking [6]. - At the end of the year, institutions usually adopt a defensive strategy to lock in annual returns, which has a greater impact on high - valuation technology sectors such as electronics and communications [6]. - The possibility of intensive policy introduction in the near future is low, which may lead to a decline in the trading motivation of leveraged funds [6]. Outlook for the Technology Market - The technology market is far from over. The probability of a fundamental reversal of the US AI industry is low, and it will still provide a large valuation growth space for A - share comparable companies. The current development stage of the A - share AI sector roughly corresponds to the period from 2023 - 2024 in the US when funds spread from hardware to applications [7]. Capital Flow Analysis - Last week, funds from different channels were still divided, with both withdrawal and bottom - fishing. ETF and northbound funds had a net inflow on a weekly basis, especially on Friday. The departure of major industrial shareholders slowed down, while leveraged funds showed signs of leaving [7]. Investment Recommendations - Mid - term, the A - share market still has upward potential under multiple factors. Investors are advised to make mid - term layouts around four main lines: Hong Kong technology leaders, vertical applications brought by the AI technological revolution, innovative drugs and medical AI, and high - dividend asset allocation, which can be extended to stable - income products such as fixed - income + quantitative products [7].

Group 1 - The core index tracks 50 stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, emphasizing a growth style [3] - The electronic and pharmaceutical industries account for nearly 75% of the index's composition, indicating a strong presence of high-growth sectors [3] - As of the latest trading session, the index experienced a slight increase of 0.1% and has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 142.3 times [3] Group 2 - The index was officially launched on July 23, 2020, and is part of a broader set of indices including the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Comprehensive Index [4] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio is calculated as total market value divided by net profit, which is a relevant valuation metric for stable industries less affected by economic cycles [4] - The fund products associated with this index have low management fees of 0.15% per year and custody fees of 0.05% per year, making them attractive for investors [4]

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 电子行业周报 英伟达三季度财报超预期，看好全球算力需求 ——电子行业周报（11.17~11.21） 相关研究： 1. 《国际存储大厂减产提价，看 好存储行业景气度》2025.11.16 2. 《闪迪发布财报，eSSD需求 快速增长》 2025.11.09 3. 《长鑫存储发布LPDDR5X， 看好国内存储产业链》 2025.11.02 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -5.6 2.9 19.4 绝对收益 -8.9 6.8 31.0 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 沪深300 电子（申万） 根据 Wind 数据，上周电子 PE（TTM，剔除负值）为 54.13X，较上周下降 3.30X，近一年PE 最大值为 69.14X，最小值为 39.61X。PB（LF）为 4.48X， 较上周下降 0.27X，近一年 PB 最大值为 5.49X，最小值为 3.13X。PE 处于近 10 年以来 36.16%分位数，PB 处于近 10 年以来 51.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Events**: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments last week, with the margin balance reported at 24,614.50 billion yuan as of November 21, and a decrease in financing balance by 29.52 billion yuan [1][2]. Financing Balance Changes - Among the 31 industries tracked, only 8 saw an increase in financing balance, with the top three being Defense and Military, Media, and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, which had net purchases of 1.006 billion yuan, 492 million yuan, and 274 million yuan respectively [1][3]. - The remaining 23 industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with Electronics, Electric Power Equipment, and Nonferrous Metals leading in net sales at 10.934 billion yuan, 5.322 billion yuan, and 3.601 billion yuan respectively [1][3]. Individual Stock Performance - Last week, financing clients increased their positions in 65 stocks by over 100 million yuan, with the top ten stocks being Ningde Times, Zhongji Xuchuang, Aerospace Development, Bluefocus, Jianghuai Automobile, BOE Technology Group, RDA Microelectronics, Founder Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Huadian Technology, with net purchases of 2.105 billion yuan, 582 million yuan, 417 million yuan, 378 million yuan, 336 million yuan, 334 million yuan, 259 million yuan, 256 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 242 million yuan respectively [4][5]. - The stocks with the highest increase in financing clients' positions generally saw positive market performance, with Aerospace Development rising over 31% [4].

截至2025年11月24日 10:12，中证500质量成长指数上涨0.20%，成分股滨江集团上涨4.64%，中材国际上涨3.06%，三美股份上涨2.61%，海信视像上涨 2.58%，首旅酒店上涨2.48%。500质量成长ETF(560500)上涨0.09%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金 未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。） 据Wind数据显示，流动性方面，截至11月24日 10:12，500质量成长ETF盘中换手0.14%，成交60.89万元。 消息方面，上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数 失守3900点。对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联 动下挫。在这一背景下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。 华泰证券发布A股策略研报称，近期AI叙事起争论、流动性有所收紧构成了市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the continuous poor performance of stocks and bonds. The subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable earnings, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, the equity style favors value, and the recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. This week, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the China Securities 1000 Index (20% position) are recommended [2][8]. - In the contraction cycle, the degree to which the stock - bond ratio favors equities is limited, and the probability of value style outperforming is higher. A + H dividend portfolios and A - share portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6%, down from 8.9% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to decline slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to a contraction phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8.4% [2][17]. - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation continued to converge marginally, but there were signs of a rebound in the second half of the week. The government's goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and China is still in a marginal contraction phase [2][17]. - In terms of fiscal policy, the net increase in government bonds last week was 2378 billion yuan (slightly higher than the planned 2283 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 2480 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of October 2025 was 13.9%, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to drop to around 13.0% in November and remain on a downward trend [3][18]. - In terms of monetary policy, the weekly average trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread slightly increased. The yield of one - year treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.40% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year treasury bonds slightly increased to 42 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond yields are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. - **Asset Side** - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The Two Sessions set the target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target at around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation continued to converge, and both stocks and bonds underperformed for two consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations. The stock market was bearish, and the bond market was flat. The equity style continued to favor value. The stock - bond ratio favored bonds. The yield of ten - year treasury bonds remained stable at 1.82%, the yield of one - year treasury bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.40%, and the term spread slightly increased to 42 basis points. The yield of thirty - year treasury bonds increased by 1 basis point to 2.16%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.46 pct last week [6][21]. - Since 2016, China has entered a marginal contraction phase of the national asset - liability sheet. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds. The bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit spread, and the stock allocation strategy is dividends plus growth [20]. - As of now, there have been two expansions of the real - sector balance sheet this year. The external environment's honeymoon period for China is over, and international funds will compare China and the US on a more equal footing. China's advantage lies in the real economy [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.2%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, media, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines, while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of November 21, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computer, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, coal, and social services. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were computer, media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and communication, while the top five with decreased crowding were power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and commercial retail [31]. - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 1.87 trillion yuan, down from 2.04 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were national defense and military industry, computer, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and real estate, while the industries with the smallest growth were power equipment, food and beverage, household appliances, environmental protection, and basic chemicals [33]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, food and beverage, media, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines in PE(TTM), while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines. Industries with relatively high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, auto parts, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index rose 2.6% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate decreased to 3.6% in October and rose to 8.2% in the first 20 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [41]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The number of trucks passing through expressways increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August and falling from September to October, slightly increased in November but remained at a historically low level. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historically low level, and second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the third week of November (November 17 - 21), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of November 21, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.7 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [65].