基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250602 国际油价、丙烯酸价格下跌，氯虫苯甲酰胺行业 产能受损 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年"抢出口"等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250525》20250526 《化工行业 2025 年一季报综述》20250522 《化工行业周报 20250518》20250520 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 本周（05.26-0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-04甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：内地方面，前期下跌过程中贸易商和下游采购意愿较差，部分产区工厂处于累库状态，且煤制甲醇利润丰 厚下周初上游主动大幅让利刺激出货为主，看空后市情绪下，长协贸易商出货意愿强烈且有做空行为。而鲁北下游 MTBE开工维持低位，周内采购也有减少，下游也顺势压价，上半周销区同步走跌。但随着产销区甲醇价格跌破近一年 来最低点，底部空间下贸易商持货意愿增强以及部分补空单需求下，下半周内地甲醇行情逐止跌回稳。港口方面，亦是 呈现先跌后稳走势，上半周供需面表现偏弱下，期现货价格同步下行，基差亦有走弱，随着美国联邦法院暂停关税政策 的消息传出，期货盘面获得支撑，多空因素博弈下港口价格震荡为主；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为22 ...

2025年5月29日，墨西哥经济部发布公告，就对华PET(聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯)反倾销调查做出最终裁 决。中银国际业务部主任、高级合伙人贾征律师作为主办律师，陈瑶律师、赵睿轩律师作为协办律师在 本案中代理万凯新材料股份有限公司和重庆万凯新材料科技有限公司参与应诉，并协助客户在最终裁决 中获得唯一的零税率，其他出口企业的税率为40美元每吨至260美元每吨。这是中国企业首次在墨西哥 对华反倾销调查中赢得零税率，具有十分重大的意义。 律师团队 中银律师贸易救济及WTO法律服务中心拥有一批理论成果丰硕、实践经验丰富、代理业绩优秀的律师 和会计师，业务领域涵盖反倾销、反补贴、保障措施、WTO谈判和争端解决、贸易壁垒调查、与贸易 有关的投资措施、服务贸易、海关法等。中银律师的服务贯穿反倾销事务的各个阶段，包括原案调查中 的应诉和申诉、各种行政复审、司法审查以及征税和退税方面的服务。中银贸易救济和WTO服务中心 的宗旨是：善用各国国内法和WTO规则，捍卫国家和企业的自由贸易权利，维护企业的正当权益，以 企业需求为己任，打造国际一流贸易救济和WTO法律服务品牌。 2024年1月29日，墨西哥经济部对华PET发起反倾销调查。2 ...

点击 最 下方 " 推荐"、"赞 "及" 分享 "，"关注"材料汇 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 正文 瓦克化学复盘启示：差异化竞争、发力新技术与全球化布局 德国瓦克化学成立距今逾百年历史，系全球硅基和乙烯/醋酸基材料领先企业，公司有机硅销售额常年居全球第2、可再生分散胶粉等聚合物系列产品以及半导体多 晶硅等材料销售额全球第1。本文详细复盘瓦克化学发展历程，总结出三方面竞争要素： ①差异化竞争 （有机硅和聚合物专注于高附加值/特种产品，以及光伏多晶 硅专注于美国特定市场）； 2）发力新技术 （发力高成长潜力的半导体多晶硅和生物技术赛道）； 3）全球化布局 （三线并举：延伸上游、开拓市场和技术并 购），有望为中国化工企业提供参考和借鉴。 差异化竞争：专注高附加值/特种产品或特定市场，稳固传统业务优势 有机硅和聚合物是公司核心业务，2024 年营收占比50%/26%（EBITDA 占比41%/32%）。2010s 以来中国为代表的全球低成本产能扩张冲击下，公司专注于特种有 机硅等高附加值产品稳固竞争优势。有机硅方面，公司产品牌号3000 余种，2023 年特种有机硅占有机硅销售额比重达85%；聚合物方面 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for various sectors, with specific companies identified as key investment opportunities based on their performance and market conditions [5][11][15][19][23][27][31][35][39][44]. Company Summaries 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank, 600036) - The bank's Q1 2025 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with operating income at 837.51 billion yuan, down 3.09% year-on-year, and net profit at 372.86 billion yuan, down 2.08% [11]. - The bank maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend of 2 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.60% based on the May 29 closing price [11]. - The bank's asset quality remains under pressure, particularly in retail loans, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% [11]. 紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining, 601899) - The company reported significant growth in mineral production, achieving 1.07 million tons of copper and 73 tons of gold in 2024, with production costs decreasing [15]. - Zijin Mining's resource reserves are expanding, with successful exploration projects and acquisitions enhancing its market position [15]. - The company expects continued growth in copper and gold prices, supporting its revenue projections for 2025 [15]. 三美股份 (Sanmei Co., 603379) - The company experienced a substantial increase in revenue from its refrigerant products, with a 30.28% year-on-year growth in 2024 [19]. - The average selling price of refrigerants rose significantly, contributing to improved profitability [19]. - The company is well-positioned in the refrigerant market, with ongoing price increases expected in 2025 [19]. 青岛啤酒 (Qingdao Beer, 600600) - The company reported a revenue of 321.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 43.45 billion yuan, showing signs of recovery in the beverage sector [23]. - The management is optimistic about demand recovery as the peak season approaches, supported by favorable government policies [23]. - EPS projections for 2025 are set at 3.52 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [23]. 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine, 600276) - The company achieved a 20.14% year-on-year growth in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by its innovative drug portfolio [27]. - Hengrui's focus on R&D has led to the development of multiple new drugs, enhancing its market competitiveness [27]. - EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.05 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [27]. 海大集团 (Haida Group, 002311) - The company reported a 9% increase in feed sales in 2024, with significant growth in international markets [31]. - Haida is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, to enhance its market presence [31]. - EPS projections for 2025 are set at 3.01 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [31]. 华电国际 (China Huadian Corporation, 600027) - The company completed a significant asset restructuring, expected to enhance its operational scale and market share [35]. - Post-restructuring, the company anticipates a 25.07% increase in revenue and a 5.93% increase in net profit [35]. - EPS projections for 2025 are set at 0.64 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [35]. 胜宏科技 (Shenghong Technology, 300476) - The company reported a 35.31% increase in revenue for 2024, driven by strong demand in the PCB sector [39]. - Q1 2025 saw an 80.31% increase in revenue, with significant growth in high-value product orders [39]. - EPS projections for 2025 are set at 5.09 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [39]. 中国电信 (China Telecom, 601728) - The company reported a 3.1% year-on-year increase in revenue, with a focus on digital transformation and service innovation [44]. - The mobile user base continues to grow, contributing to stable revenue streams [44]. - EPS projections for 2025 are set at 0.39 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [44].

以下文章来源于油市小蓝莓 ，作者朱晓宇 油市小蓝莓 . 紫金天风期货能化团队 文 | 朱晓宇 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 观点小结 核心观点：中性 基本面，检修回归，PVC开工回升，整体库存继续去化；估值低位。关注国内是否有政策出台及实质影响；策略09低 买且滚动。 月差：中性 9-1月差近期震荡走强。 原料支撑：中性偏空 1）电石负荷及价格下滑，乌海电石报2250元/吨。2）兰炭中料报615元/吨，持平上周。 供给：中性 国内开工回升。PVC粉整体开工率为74.60%，环比提升1.49个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工率为75.71%，环比提升 2.52个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工率为71.71%，环比下降1.19个百分点。 需求：中性偏空 1）下游制品开工微降。2）出口：近端出口平平。3）产业链去库。 利润：中性偏多 单PVC利润低位，综合利润分化。电石一体化吨利-1161元，山东外购电石法吨利-1095元；华北乙烯法利润311元/ 吨。西北综合利润-390元/吨，华北综合利润-524元/吨，双吨价差3048元。 宏观：中性 海外不确定性强，关注国内可能刺 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7018 386476 | -122 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 16850 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 374550 7018 | -62793 -122 | | | | | 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 303349 | 21711 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -22091 | -5906 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 408567 8040 | 22756 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) -64 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 874 | -5067 -11 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

企业高质量发展的路上，谁掌握了科技创新，谁就掌握了主动权。 近年来，北元集团大力实施科技兴企、人才强企战略，依靠科技创新不断集聚新动能、持续释放新活 力，走出了一条科技赋能高质量发展的创新之路。 科研平台是科技创新的主要阵地。北元集团建成甘氨酸中试装置、无汞催化工艺中试装置及万吨级工业 化试验装置、PEM电解槽电解水制氢中试装置、乙二醇制备氯乙醇中试装置、聚氯乙烯树脂聚合及成 型加工、固废资源化利用、大型仪器分析等平台，拥有扫描电镜、X射线衍射分析仪、气质联用仪、凝 胶渗透色谱仪、全自动比表面积分析仪、差示扫描量热仪等139台套分析仪器，自主研发能力大幅提 升。 产学研深度融合是加快科技成果落地转化的关键抓手。北元集团与南开大学、西安交通大学、西北大 学、西安工业大学等国内高校建立了产学研合作，开展无汞催化剂工艺技术研究、电石渣制备纳米碳酸 钙、聚氯乙烯防水涂料研究开发等产学研项目；与日本智索开展聚合釜经济性运行研究；与美国孟莫克 合作建设电石法聚氯乙烯废硫酸裂解再生浓硫酸项目，解决了聚氯乙烯生产过程中废硫酸难处理、新硫 酸采购成本高的问题。 科技创新是提升企业核心竞争力的重要手段。北元集团依靠科技创新，不断 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Luzhou Tianhua plans to acquire 100% equity of Luzhou Hongsheng Chemical Park Operation Service Co., Ltd. from its affiliate, Jin Tianhong Company, to expedite the construction of a green fine chemical project [1] - The green fine chemical project has an annual capacity of 100,000 tons and is located in the western area of the Luzhou Tianhua Chemical Park, covering approximately 325 acres [1] - The estimated price for the acquisition of relevant equipment and facilities is 79.7251 million yuan, with a subsequent payment of approximately 270 million yuan for the remaining 40% of the transfer fee [1] Group 2 - Luzhou Tianhua plans to utilize the land of Luzhou Hongsheng to develop green fine chemical industries, new fertilizer industries, and establish research and development experimental bases [2] - The company aims to create a combination effect of research, experimentation, and production to form new profit growth points [2] - This strategy will support the establishment of an industrial cycle involving new efficient fertilizers, crop planting processing, fine chemical product production, potassium mining, and new efficient fertilizers [2]