Core Viewpoint - The domestic industrial silicon market is experiencing price stability in the spot market, while futures prices have slightly declined, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid conflicting supply and demand expectations [1][2]. Price Trends - The main futures contract closed at 8600 CNY/ton, down from 8700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% decrease. The national average price remains stable at 9196 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton, 441 at 9174 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton. Regional prices include Xinjiang at 8840 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10020 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 9900 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a contradictory state, with government policies providing positive guidance for the medium to long term, while industry expectations for short-term supply and demand remain pessimistic. Major domestic producers are gradually resuming production, with operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increasing by 50% and 30%, respectively. However, most production is hedged through futures contracts, limiting immediate sales volume and willingness to lower prices [1][2]. Demand Insights - Although downstream polysilicon and organosilicon companies are increasing their operating rates, their purchasing intentions are low as they anticipate lower prices for procurement [1][2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak balance with both supply and demand increasing in August, leading to a slight downward trend in prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. It is recommended to consider medium - to - long - term long positions on dips if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [3][4]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the position of the main contract is 284,500 lots, an increase of 5,640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 94,567 lots, a decrease of 4,841 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,658 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [3]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industrial security, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Southwest China, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to increase, and the output in Southwest China is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [3]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, which drives the demand for industrial silicon to some extent [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, which strongly supports the rigid demand for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory continues to increase, the price drops, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with industrial silicon futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.36% to 8695.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Side - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase as the hydropower season progresses in the southwest region, leading to a rise in production from silicon factories [1] - New furnace installations in Sichuan and Yunnan are on the rise, with expectations of a week-on-week production increase in the southwest region [1] - In Xinjiang, while some large factories maintain stable production, smaller silicon plants are less motivated to resume production due to low profit margins from previous low prices, resulting in overall stable production levels [1] Demand Side - There is an anticipated significant increase in the production of polysilicon in August, which will boost demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy sector is operating steadily, while demand remains relatively average; organic silicon also has production increase expectations [1] - Despite a continuous decrease in standard warehouse receipts, the overall industry inventory remains at a high level [1] Market Overview - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, leading to a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the short term, although there is still pressure on inventory absorption [1] - Market sentiment has slightly diminished, but related products like coking coal have seen significant price increases, providing support for the lower end of the market [1] - The main contract is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding as factories in the northwest and southwest regions continue to resume production. On the demand side, the weekly output of downstream polysilicon and silicone has increased. From a balance perspective, the resumption of production on the supply side will impact the supply - demand balance, and combined with hedging pressure, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Different contracts (SI2508 - SI2512) have different closing prices, price changes (ranging from -1.12% to 0.05%), and trading volumes. For example, SI2508 has a closing price of 8800 with a -0.68% change and a trading volume of -16; SI2509 has a closing price of 8800, a -1.07% change, and a trading volume of 68175 [1] Spot Market - Different grades of industrial silicon (such as 553 (unoxygenated), 553 (hydrogenated), 421, etc.) have different prices in different regions. For example, 553 (unoxygenated) has a price of 9200 in the market, and 421 has a price of 9750. In ports like Huangpu and Tianjin, prices also vary. Additionally, prices of related products like DMC, 107 glue, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided [1] Spread - The spreads between different contracts (e.g., si2508 - si2509, si2509 - si2510) and between different spot products (e.g., 421 spot - 553 oxygenated spot) are presented. For example, si2508 - si2509 has a spread of 0 with a change of 65, and 421 spot - 553 oxygenated spot has a spread of 350 [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - Information about various warehouses and their storage capacities, premium/discount standards, and changes in warehouse receipts is provided. The total storage capacity is 31.55 million tons, and the total warehouse receipts decreased by 102 from 49890 to 49788 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The price of industrial silicon dropped slightly after failing to break through 9,000 yuan, and it is expected to have some further downward momentum. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the main contract position is 278,860 lots, up 6,917 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,979 lots, down 3,564 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,340 lots, down 135 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 30 yuan, down 15 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 560 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, up 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to about 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance Photovoltaic Special Committee predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of national photovoltaic modules will reach 1 million tons, and 12 million tons by 2040 [2] 3.7 Supply - demand Analysis - On the supply side, in the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to increase, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits affected by the previous low prices, and the overall output remains relatively stable. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The demand in the organic silicon market has recovered and increased, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid support for industrial silicon. However, the price of polysilicon has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices decline, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, with little impetus to the demand for industrial silicon [2]

Core Viewpoints - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 53,400.0 yuan, with a current price of 52,980.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.98% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures indicates a clear range pattern for polysilicon in the short term, with significant influences from recent industry associations advocating against excessive competition [1] - Donghai Futures notes a cooling market sentiment, predicting a high-level fluctuation for polysilicon in the short term, supported by lower spot prices and successful price increases in downstream silicon wafers and battery cells [2] - Minmetals Futures advises cautious participation from both bulls and bears, highlighting the expected increase in polysilicon production in August, while noting that downstream silicon wafer production increases are limited [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The recent joint initiative by multiple provincial industrial silicon associations is expected to drive the polysilicon market, with a focus on the recovery progress of industrial silicon and the impact of policy advancements [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a potential for high-level fluctuations due to the uncertain transmission of price increases along the supply chain [2][3] - The ongoing narrative around capacity consolidation policies adds to the uncertainty in the market, suggesting that price volatility may increase [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price continued its rebound trend, with the Si2511 closing at 9000 yuan/ton, up 4.83%. The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, but the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. The Si2511 closed at 9000 yuan/ton, with a 4.83% increase, a trading volume of 662196 lots, and an open interest of 271943 lots, a net increase of 33258 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8850 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9950 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, and the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The weekly output of industrial silicon increased to 8.35 tons (37 tons monthly) due to the resumption of production in the southwest and Xinjiang. The demand increase was smaller than the supply increase. The production schedule of polysilicon in August would increase to 12.50 tons. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 11, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50760 lots, a net increase of 420 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3560.9 million tons of coal and lignite in July, a month - on - month increase of 257.2 million tons or 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25730.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has been adjusted downward due to cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain strong at a high level. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon futures market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly hit new highs since listing. Although the sentiment has faded recently, there are still fluctuations, and the price remains strong at a high level with large market volatility, so operation requires caution [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged, with N - type dense material at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract rose 4.32% to 52,985 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and steadily increasing enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, the output is expected to increase slightly, with an expected output approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the high - volume installations in the first half of the year have significantly overdrawn demand, and the terminal market remains weak [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Silicon Bao Technology has launched self - developed low - density, high - flame - retardant organic silicon sealing materials for the power battery adhesive field, and double - component fast - curing organic silicon sealants for the photovoltaic adhesive field [1]. - Indian energy enterprise SAEL Industries' subsidiary will build a 5GW battery and 5GW component vertically integrated factory in Uttar Pradesh, with a total investment of about 6.8 billion yuan [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillating [8][9] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillating [10] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bullish [87] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding due to continuous resumption of production in factories in the northwest and southwest regions, while downstream polysilicon and silicone production has increased. The resumption of supply will impact the supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - For polysilicon, the national weekly production has increased, downstream silicon wafer production is on the rise, but market sentiment has cooled. The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the mine - end production halt has been confirmed, and if there is rectification and resumption after compliance, considering the large downstream inventory and supplementary supply from surrounding mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Market sentiment may trigger downstream stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The current values, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US Dollar Index, exchange rate, Shanghai and London copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the US Dollar Index is 98.267, with a daily increase of 0.18%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 9.42%. Industrial silicon is priced at 8710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%, a weekly increase of 2.47%, and an annual decrease of 20.71% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 8.35 tons, a 6.16% increase from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 270, an increase of 8 from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan has all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream polysilicon and silicone weekly production has increased. Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week, and silicone DMC weekly production is 5.12 tons, a 7.11% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.16 tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week; the industry inventory is 43.99 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.17 tons, a 0.52% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9100 yuan, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 120 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In major production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 567, 86, and 187 yuan respectively, with changes of - 25, + 52, and + 37 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the expansion of supply and hedging pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Production**: The national weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 1.09, 0.45, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with a 1.02% increase in Inner Mongolia and no change in the other three regions [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.58GW, a 6.24% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.78GW, a 1.93% decrease from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.34 tons, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 10860 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41323 yuan, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 3878 yuan, an increase of 461 yuan from the previous week [10]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national high - yield is 1.96 tons, a 13.25% increase from the previous week. Lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes has all increased, with weekly productions of 11182, 4410, and 2442 tons respectively, and increases of 5.25%, 35.07%, and 20.18% from the previous week [87]. - **Import**: In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.7 tons, a 16.31% decrease from the previous month and a 9.63% decrease from the previous year. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 42.76 tons, a 17.25% decrease from the previous month and an 18.15% decrease from the previous year [87]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of iron - phosphate - based materials decreased by 10.87% to 6.17 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.99% to 9.46 tons. The weekly production of ternary - based materials increased by 8.66% to 1.75 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.36% to 1.66 tons. In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 226.77 million vehicles, a 0.14% decrease from the previous month, and the sales volume was 132.92 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase from the previous month [87]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.24 tons, a 0.49% increase from the previous week. The lithium - salt factory inventory decreased by 1.85% to 5.10 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1.84% to 9.14 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 239.57% to 1.88 tons [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased lepidolite is 75753 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 7557 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased spodumene is 68214 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is 1863 yuan/ton, a 212 - yuan decrease from the previous week [87]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the mine - end production halt and potential downstream stocking [87].