有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 2025/04/30 230 997 116753 28166 -118.83 721.42 94.0 115.0 -6.80 200150 71050 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 ...

国际铜夜盘收涨0.84%，沪铜收涨0.72%，沪铝收涨0.46%，沪锌收涨0.27%，沪铅收平，沪镍收涨 0.26%，沪锡收涨0.30%。 氧化铝夜盘收涨4.05%。 不锈钢夜盘收跌0.04%。 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 注册信心 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合同业务资格:证监存可 2011 1292号 問敏波 Z0015979 | 2025年5月8日 | | | | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 19610 | 19850 | -240.0 | -1.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -20 | -20 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 19610 | 19840 | -230.0 | -1.16% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -20 | -30 | 10.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2900 | 2900 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | 2900 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 1.2% decline to $9,406/ton, and SHFE copper dropped 0.74% to CNY 77,450/ton. The Fed paused rate - cuts, boosting the dollar and suppressing non - ferrous metals. However, with an improving macro - outlook and strong copper demand since April leading to rapid inventory drawdown, there is no strong reason to be bearish on copper. Copper prices are expected to reach CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. Attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high prices and inventory performance in late May [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and沪铝 (SHFE aluminum) both trended weakly. Alumina may rebound slightly after the holiday driven by electrolytic aluminum, but will continue to be in an oversupply situation. Aluminum ingot de - stocking is slowing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.38% to $15,630/ton, and SHFE nickel dropped 0.35% to CNY 123,640/ton. Stainless steel prices will oscillate with cost support at the bottom and demand constraints at the top. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if primary nickel inventory continues to accumulate, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Copper**: LME copper prices fell, and SHFE copper also declined. The Fed's pause in rate - cuts affected the market, but strong demand and inventory drawdown supported prices. The expected price range is CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and SHFE aluminum prices were weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and aluminum ingot demand is waning [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined. Stainless steel prices will oscillate, and primary nickel inventory accumulation may pressure nickel prices [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices showed some changes, with inventory adjustments in different exchanges. For example, LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 3,381 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with minor changes in some indicators like lead ingot discounts [3]. - **Aluminum**: Prices of aluminum products changed, and inventory also adjusted. Alumina inventory increased by 43,000 tons on a weekly basis [3][4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related prices and inventory had some fluctuations, such as a decrease in SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 416 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: Prices declined slightly, and inventory increased in some areas. For example, social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and inventory decreased in some cases [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12][16][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [24][26][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series [30][32][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [37][39][42]. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A senior researcher in non - ferrous metals and precious metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [44]. - Wang Heng: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [44]. - Zhu Xi: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching lithium and nickel [45].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 2025/04/30 230 997 116753 28166 -118.83 721.42 94.0 115.0 -6.80 200150 71050 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 变 ...

国际铜夜盘收跌0.72%，沪铜收跌0.74%，沪铝收跌1.55%，沪锌收跌0.49%，沪铅收涨0.57%，沪镍收跌 0.35%，沪锡收跌0.94%。 氧化铝夜盘收跌0.22%。 不锈钢夜盘收跌0.08%。 ...

Price Movements - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, with the price at 78,480 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton [2] - The price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong has seen a rise, with market quotations for flat copper increasing by 130-200 CNY/ton [3] - The price of recycled copper has also increased, following the upward trend in copper prices [4] Inventory Trends - Copper inventory in the LME has decreased by 400 tons, totaling 197,300 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory has significantly dropped by 27,446 tons, now at 89,307 tons [2] - Post-holiday, the electrolytic copper inventory in Guangdong is expected to continue to accumulate slightly due to increased arrivals [3] Market Dynamics - The market for recycled copper is experiencing a recovery in trading atmosphere, with downstream copper plants actively seeking to replenish their stocks after the holiday [4] - There is a mixed response from downstream copper manufacturers regarding procurement, with some showing strong demand while others remain cautious [4] - The trading volume for copper rods in Guangdong has been stable, with a notable demand for replenishment after the holiday [5]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 铜震荡走高，上涨 1.75%至 9520 美元/吨：SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.84%至 78320 元/吨；国内现货进口小幅盈利。宏观方面，海外方面，美国财政部长贝森特重申，美 | LME | | | | 国财政部正处于"预警轨道"，并重申美国政府永远不会违约，并承诺财政部不会使用 "花招"绕过债务上限。另外， 美国财政部拍卖 420 亿美元 10 年期国债，整体结果稳 | | | | | 健，多个指标健康。国内方面，中国 4 月财新服务业 PMI 50.7，新订单增速放缓，但财 | | | | | 政部部长蓝佛安表示，将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右 | | | | 铜 | 增长目标。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1675 吨至 195625 吨；SMM 周二统计全国主流地 | | | | | 区铜库存环比节前减少 0.11 万吨至 12.85 万吨。宏观方面美政府态度持续软化，基本面 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China, and the expectation of intensified domestic economic stimulus policies along with the decreasing domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the copper price is expected to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,600 yuan, up 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,514 lots, down 6,040 lots; the open interest was 172,625 lots, up 4,071 lots; the inventory was 24,922 tons, down 3,244 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,190 yuan, up 240 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 590 yuan, down 140 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 310 yuan, up 80 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 370 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 380 yuan, up 50 yuan [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on May 2 was 9,365.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants on May 2 was 195,625 tons. The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on May 6 was 4.755 dollars, up 0.06 dollars, and the total inventory was 154,632 tons, up 5,306 tons [2]. Industry News - **Upstream**: Aurubis will start an 800 - million - dollar US scrap copper smelter in 2025, aiming to process 180,000 tons of scrap copper and produce 70,000 tons of refined copper annually. Many mines and smelters have production changes, such as the复产 of Antamina copper mine in Peru, the suspension of production in some plants in Chile and Kazakhstan, and the planned production of some expansion projects [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod enterprises may increase, while that of some industries like copper foil packaging wire and brass rod may decrease [3]. Macro - economic Situation The US Congress reached a budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.3 trillion dollars and a debt ceiling increase of 5 trillion dollars in the next decade. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars in 2026. The better - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April postponed the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or October [3].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月7日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 261200 | -1000 | -0.38% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 800 | 100 | 12.50% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 261700 | -1000 | -0.38% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -228.98 | -205.00 | -23.98 | -11.70% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6721.57 | -9899.07 | 3177.50 | 32.10% | 元/吨 | | ...