Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge in January 2026, with gold and silver prices breaking historical peaks, driven by increased risk aversion amid rising policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [1][4]. Market Performance - On January 12, 2026, spot gold reached a milestone of $4,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of up to 2%, while spot silver surged nearly 5% to surpass $84 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [3]. - The domestic market mirrored this excitement, with the Shanghai silver futures contract hitting the daily limit with an increase of over 11%, and Shanghai gold rising more than 2% to a historical high of 1,031.30 yuan per gram [3]. - Silver's performance was particularly notable, with a monthly increase of 44.74%, and the Guotou Silver LOF seeing an annual increase of over 8%, with circulating shares reaching a record high of 3.139 billion [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The escalation of internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve was a key driver of the risk aversion trade, highlighted by Chairman Powell's confirmation of a subpoena related to potential misuse of funds in a renovation project, which has raised concerns about the independence of monetary policy [4]. - The internal policy divisions within the Fed have become pronounced, with a notable split in the December 2025 meeting where 9 members supported a 25 basis point rate cut while 3 opposed it, marking the most significant decision split since 2019 [4]. Market Reactions - The surge in policy uncertainty has led to a re-evaluation of market pricing, prompting a flow of funds into gold and silver assets as the Fed's turmoil raises doubts about future policy directions [5]. - The U.S. dollar index weakened rapidly, and the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries declined, while gold and silver emerged as safe-haven assets, supported by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data that fell short of expectations [5]. - In the first week of January, gold ETFs saw accelerated inflows, with net subscriptions exceeding 400 million shares, and global gold ETF assets under management surpassing $350 billion, the highest level since 2020 [5]. Diverging Market Sentiment - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the gold and silver price surge, with optimistic views suggesting continued upward potential due to persistent policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks [6]. - UBS has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, while Bank of America predicts silver prices could soar to a range of $135 to $309 per ounce [7]. - Cautious perspectives highlight potential short-term pullback risks, with warnings from UBS about the possibility of profit-taking following rapid price increases and the potential for volatility due to regulatory measures [7]. Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The progress of Powell's criminal investigation will significantly impact the trajectory of policy uncertainty, potentially exacerbating market risk aversion [8]. - Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and U.S. inflation data will reshape interest rate expectations, while the flow of funds into gold ETFs and central bank purchases will influence the support for gold and silver prices [8]. - Global geopolitical developments and industrial demand, particularly for silver in sectors like photovoltaics and AI, will also play crucial roles in shaping market trends [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector**: The focus is on precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, with a positive outlook for 2026, particularly for gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Precious Metals Demand**: Expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks are driving demand for precious metals, particularly gold. Central banks are increasing gold reserves, and ETF purchases are expected to be a significant source of demand in 2026. Recommended stocks include Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others [1][7]. - **Silver Price Volatility**: Silver prices are expected to rise but with greater volatility compared to gold. The potential impact of U.S. tariffs may increase hoarding demand for silver [7][8]. - **Industrial and Energy Metals Outlook**: The outlook for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is positive due to expected recovery in traditional demand and macroeconomic support from interest rate cuts. Recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Wanfang [3][4][19][20]. - **Supply Challenges**: The supply side for industrial and energy minerals faces challenges such as declining resource grades, rising extraction costs, and geopolitical instability. These factors are expected to support prices [5][9]. - **Lithium Demand Dynamics**: The cancellation of export tax rebates is leading to a surge in short-term demand for lithium batteries, with prices expected to rise significantly. Long-term impacts are anticipated to stabilize as foreign buyers absorb costs [10][11][12]. - **Nickel Market Dynamics**: Nickel prices are under pressure due to quota adjustments by the Indonesian government, which may limit price increases. However, the market remains worth monitoring [13]. - **Copper Price Trends**: Recent copper prices have shown strength, influenced by U.S. economic data and supply disruptions in South America. Long-term expectations are for price increases driven by macroeconomic conditions [14][15]. - **Tin Price Surge**: Tin prices have risen significantly due to supply constraints and strong demand in AI and PVD applications. Recommended stocks include Xie Co., Huaxi Co., and Xingye Silver Tin [16]. - **Tungsten Price Trends**: Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and increasing demand in strategic sectors. Recommended stocks include Xiamen Property and Jiaxing International Resources [17][18]. - **Aluminum Market Performance**: Aluminum prices have reached new highs, supported by macroeconomic policies and geopolitical risks. The market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with recommended stocks including Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [19][20]. - **Rare Earth Market Dynamics**: Rare earth prices have increased due to policy impacts and basic demand recovery. The simplification of export licenses is expected to enhance export efficiency and support demand [21][22][23][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Industry Trends**: The steel industry is experiencing a rise in inventory and production levels, with profitability slightly declining but still above historical lows. The focus is on companies with strong cash flow and dividend yields [25][26][27][28]. - **Geopolitical Impacts**: Recent geopolitical tensions and trade policies are influencing metal prices and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [2][6][8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

Market Overview - On January 13, A-shares opened higher but showed mixed performance by midday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and ChiNext Index down 0.83% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 128.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance AI Application Sector - The AI application concept continued to show strength, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Ingrity Media, Liou Co., and Shengguang Group [1] - AI medical stocks were notably active, with companies like Meian Health and Dean Diagnostics achieving three consecutive daily limits, and Hongbo Pharmaceutical hitting a 20% limit up [1][9] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant pullback after a period of rapid growth, with multiple stocks showing declines of over 10% [6][7] - Notable declines included Aerospace Huanyu down 19.58%, Guolian Aviation down 14.32%, and Sry New Materials down 14.29% [6] Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector saw a resurgence, with stocks like Tibet Summit hitting the daily limit up, and others like Salt Lake Shares and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7% [14] - The price of lithium carbonate futures surpassed 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a rise of over 9% and reaching a new high since October 2023 [14] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector experienced a rally, with spot gold prices reaching a record high of $4,630.28 per ounce [17] - Stocks such as Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology saw significant gains, both exceeding 8% [17] Expert Insights - Experts have raised warnings about the speculative nature of the commercial aerospace sector, emphasizing the need for companies to disclose key information to reduce information asymmetry risks [7] - The commercial aerospace sector is currently transitioning from policy incubation to large-scale implementation, with challenges such as low satellite data utilization and a lack of sustainable profit models in the consumer market [7]

Market Overview - On January 13, A-shares saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4163.84 points, down 0.03% [1] - A total of 2427 stocks rose while 2862 stocks fell, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3] Sector Performance - The healthcare services, lithium mining, precious metals, and insurance sectors showed strong performance, while commercial aerospace, communication equipment, and shipbuilding sectors faced declines [3][4] Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Tibet Summit hitting the daily limit up, and others like Salt Lake Co. and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7% [6] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a rise of over 9% and reaching a new high since October 2023 [7] Insurance Sector - The financial sector was active, with the insurance sector showing strength; China Life rose over 3% to a market value of 1,279.4 billion yuan, while China Ping An increased over 2% to a market value of 1,203.4 billion yuan [10][11] - Analysts predict that new insurance premiums for listed companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, driven by the bancassurance channel and increased market share of large insurers [13] AI Healthcare Sector - AI healthcare stocks were notably active, with several companies hitting the daily limit up, including Di'an Diagnostics and Nossger, which saw increases of 20% [15] - Nvidia announced a joint investment of $1 billion with Eli Lilly to establish an AI drug laboratory, aiming to accelerate medical discoveries [15] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw a rise, with spot gold prices reaching a record high of $4630.28 per ounce [17] - Stocks like Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology reported significant gains, with increases exceeding 8% [18]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4163.84 points, down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.83% [1] Sector Performance - The market saw 2427 stocks rise, with 81 hitting the daily limit, while 2862 stocks fell. Notably, sectors such as medical services, lithium mining, precious metals, and insurance showed significant gains, while commercial aerospace, communication equipment, and shipbuilding sectors faced declines [2] Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector saw a strong surge, with stocks like Tibet Summit hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Salt Lake Industry and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7%. Other companies like Zangge Mining and Tianqi Lithium also saw increases of over 5% [5] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a rise of over 9% and reaching a new high since October 2023 [7] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed resilience, with major players like China Life and Ping An rising over 3% and 2% respectively. China Life's market capitalization reached 1.2794 trillion yuan, while Ping An's reached 1.2034 trillion yuan [10][11] - Analysts predict that new insurance premiums for listed companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, driven primarily by the bancassurance channel and the proactive expansion of large insurers [12] AI Medical Sector - The AI medical sector experienced a wave of activity, with stocks like Dian Diagnostics and Nuo Si Ge hitting the daily limit. Nvidia announced a $1 billion investment with Eli Lilly to establish an AI drug laboratory, which is expected to accelerate medical discoveries [13] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw a notable rise, with spot gold prices reaching a record high of $4630.28 per ounce. Stocks such as Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology rose over 8%, while other companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also experienced gains [15]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices over the past year lacks a statistically valid explanation, making future predictions uncertain [1]. Group 1: Theories Explaining Gold Price Movements - **Inflation Hedge**: The common belief is that gold serves as a hedge against inflation, with prices rising during inflationary periods. However, the correlation between CPI changes and gold price movements is only 1.1%, indicating a weak predictive power [2][4]. - **Expected Inflation Hedge**: Some argue that gold reacts to expected future inflation rather than actual inflation. Yet, analysis using Cleveland Fed's inflation expectations shows no significant correlation with gold prices, even weaker than actual CPI changes [5][6]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: Another theory posits that gold prices rise with increased geopolitical risks. However, the geopolitical risk index only explains 0.1% of gold price changes, indicating a negligible relationship [7][8]. - **Economic Policy Risk**: The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) was also tested, revealing that it explains only 0.9% of gold price changes, further supporting the lack of correlation [9]. - **Chinese Gold Purchases**: The theory linking gold's bull market to increased gold purchases by the Chinese central bank is prevalent, but the correlation is weak, with an R-squared value of only 0.6% [10]. - **Gold ETF Net Inflows**: The highest correlation with gold prices is found in the net inflows of physical gold ETFs. However, even this correlation lacks statistical significance at the 95% confidence level [11]. Group 2: Challenges in Timing the Gold Market - None of the discussed theories provide a solid synchronous or leading indicator for gold price fluctuations, complicating market timing strategies [12]. - Historical data shows that various gold market timing strategies have underperformed the buy-and-hold strategy by an average of 4.0 percentage points annually since the mid-1980s [12].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03% to 4163.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.83% [1] - The North Stock 50 Index decreased by 0.27% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24,684 billion yuan, an increase of 1,360 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,800 individual stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals prices reached historical highs, leading to a significant increase in the precious metals sector [1] - The medical services, gaming, and CRO (Contract Research Organization) sectors showed notable gains [1] - Several companies issued risk warning announcements, resulting in a widespread decline in commercial aerospace stocks [1] - The military equipment, controllable nuclear fusion, and CPO (Contract Production Organization) sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Individual Stock Highlights - The new "Yi Zhongtian" continued to perform strongly, with "Yidian Tianxia" and "Tianlong Group" achieving three consecutive trading limit increases [1] - "Chinese Online" saw a rise of over 14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant bullish trend, with key ETFs and stocks showing substantial price increases and attracting considerable investment [1][4][6]. Group 1: ETF and Market Performance - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) saw its intraday price rise by 2.9%, reaching a new high since its listing, with a net subscription of 45.6 million units [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 311 million yuan in investments [1]. - The performance of individual stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector has been strong, with notable increases in companies like Hunan Silver (10.02%), Zhongkuang Resources (9.56%), and Ganfeng Lithium (8.55%) [2][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals and Lithium Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have surged, with silver prices rising by 8% to over $86 and gold prices increasing by 2.4% to over $4,600 per ounce, marking new historical highs [2]. - Lithium futures have also reached new highs, with the main contract exceeding 170,000 yuan per ton, and spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising to 152,100 yuan per ton, a two-year high [3]. - The recent adjustments in export tax policies for battery products may lead to increased short-term demand from overseas clients, indicating a robust market despite seasonal trends [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with firms like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [3][5]. - The sustainability of the "super cycle" in non-ferrous metals is contingent on factors such as the recovery of the US dollar's credit, strategic stockpiling progress, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, with expectations for this cycle to last until 2026 [5]. - The comprehensive coverage of various metals by the Huabao ETF positions it well to capitalize on the sector's overall performance [6].

来源：中国能源网 东吴证券近日有色金属行业跟踪周报：回顾本周行情（1月5日-1月9日），有色板块本周上涨8.56%，在 全部一级行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中小金属板块上涨11.67%， 金属新材料板块上涨9.02%，工业金属板块上涨8.52%，贵金属板块上涨7.28%，能源金属板块上涨 6.30%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 回顾本周行情（1月5日-1月9日），有色板块本周上涨8.56%，在全部一级行业中排名靠前。二级行业方 面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中小金属板块上涨11.67%，金属新材料板块上涨9.02%，工业金属板 块上涨8.52%，贵金属板块上涨7.28%，能源金属板块上涨6.30%。工业金属方面，本周美国劳动力市场 趋势放缓，市场预计26年美联储仍有两次降息空间，市场维持乐观做多情绪，工业金属本周录得普涨。 贵金属方面，根据BCOM规则，大部分调仓将会在1月9日至1月15日完成；此外白银伦敦租赁利率回 落，1个月租赁利率从8.5%回落至3.4%，结构从Back转向Contango，表明海外现货紧张程度有所缓和， 预计下周金银市场的波动将会有效放大。 周观点： ...

贵金属方面，黄金白银双双狂飙刷新高，美联储风波引爆避险交易！周一纽约时段，贵金属价格大幅走强。现货白银一度上涨8%，突破86美元，现货黄金 一度涨2.4%升破每盎司4600美元，均刷新2025年12月的历史纪录。分析认为，贵金属走强最直接的因素或是"特朗普政府加大了对美联储的攻击力度"，使投 资者减少了对美国资产的投资。 【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 | 序号 | 名称 | 两日图 | 涨跌幅 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 第五座殿 | | 10.02% | 有色金属 | 農金属 | 白银 | 260亿 | 24.74Z | | 2 | 中矿 资源 | | 9.56% | 有色全属 | 小金属 | 其他小金属 | 672亿 | 19.771Z | | 3 | 赣锋舞业 | | 8.55% | 有色会居 | 能源金属 | 键 | 1467亿 | 53.37 Z | | V | 雅化集团 | hant | 8.34% | 草础化工 ...