当发现快递可能丢失、损坏或严重延误时，保持冷静并按步骤处理： 三、投诉维权的主要正规渠道 如果与快递公司沟通无果或对方推诿，消费者可以转向以下正规渠道投诉： 1. 向快递企业总部投诉 每家快递公司都有官方客服热线和在线投诉渠道。这是最直接的升级投诉方式。将问题、证据和 之前沟通的经过整理清楚后，向总部投诉往往比与基层网点纠缠更有效。注意保留总部客服的工 单号，以便后续跟进。 快递服务如今已成为现代生活不可或缺的一部分，但随之而来的快递丢失、损坏、延误等问题也屡见不 鲜。当价值不菲的包裹在运输途中出现问题，消费者往往陷入与快递公司的拉锯战，维权过程费时费 力。其实，通过一些事前防范措施和正确的投诉途径，可以大大降低此类风险，或在问题发生后更有效 地维护自身权益。 一、快递消费的常见"陷阱"与事前防范 在快递服务中，消费者常遇到的问题主要包括： 二、遇到问题，第一步该做什么？ 2. 向邮政管理部门申诉（最权威的行业监管渠道） 国家邮政局申诉网站和12305申诉电话，是邮政业消费者申诉的专门渠道。根据《邮政业消费者申 1. 包裹丢失：快递显示已揽收，但后续物流信息停滞或直接显示"异常"，包裹不知所踪。 2. 物品损 ...

招商证券发布研报称，2025年快递需求增长超预期，反内卷推动价格触底回升。行业估值总体处于低 位，看好行业有序竞争、总体竞争强度趋于缓和、格局逐步优化、盈利中枢提升。头部公司兼具经营确 定性高、现金流稳定、资产负债率低等优势，具有准红利属性;关注行业中尾部公司在较低的盈利基数 上，经营及管理优化，有望实现更高的盈利弹性。 2)反内卷政策推动行业价格触底回升、同比跌幅收窄。2025上半年由于主要公司份额诉求较强、行业竞 争加剧，行业价格跌幅较大，其中Q1-Q2行业均价同比分别下跌8.8%、6.8%，Q3w以来反内卷政策推动 行业价格跌幅收窄，Q3平均价格同比跌幅收窄至5.8%，环比回升0.5%，Q4以来10-11月单价同比下降 5.8%，环比提升1.7%。 3)公司维度，顺丰及圆通市占率提升。2025年年初以来，顺丰受益于激活经营、业务量快速增长，市占 率同比提升较快，Q3市占率同比提升1.3%;圆通由于较积极的价格策略，市占率总体处于提升状态，Q3 同比提升0.2%。 快递板块投资策略：行业估值总体处于低位，看好行业有序竞争、总体竞争强度趋于缓和、格局逐步优 化、盈利中枢提升 1)需求端，有望持续受益电商市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is undergoing a significant green transformation, focusing on sustainable packaging and reducing waste, which is essential for high-quality development and ecological civilization construction [2][10]. Group 1: Green Packaging Standards and Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the standardization rate of express packaging reached 86%, with reductions in packaging box layers and bag thickness by over 50%, and tape width reduced by 25% [4][10]. - Intelligent packing algorithms have decreased material consumption by nearly 20%, and the proportion of reusable packaging in same-city deliveries has reached 10%, with over 800 million recycled boxes annually [4][10]. - The implementation of the "Interim Regulations on Express Delivery" in June 2025 introduced a dedicated chapter on express packaging, establishing a green and energy-saving express service system [4][5]. Group 2: Collaborative Efforts and Policy Support - The State Post Bureau has actively promoted multi-party participation and collaborative governance, issuing three regulations, 15 standards, and nine policies aligned with green principles to support the green transformation of express packaging [2][4]. - Zhejiang Province has integrated express packaging governance into broader waste management and ecological planning, transforming it from an industry-specific issue to a comprehensive societal concern [5][7]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Practices - The industry is leveraging modern technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain to enhance operational efficiency and reduce carbon emissions across the entire delivery lifecycle [11][12]. - Companies are adopting eco-friendly materials and practices, such as using narrow tape and biodegradable packaging, which have become standard in daily operations [10][12]. - The use of renewable energy vehicles is increasing, with companies like Debon Express reporting significant cost savings through the adoption of electric vehicles [12]. Group 4: Future Directions and Challenges - Despite notable progress, challenges remain, including high costs of green transformation, incomplete recycling systems, and issues with excessive packaging [13]. - The State Post Bureau plans to accelerate the green transformation of packaging and strengthen inter-departmental collaboration to enhance the effectiveness of green governance [13].

Core Insights - The logistics industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with growth rates slowing to single digits due to various factors such as weak e-commerce growth and regulatory pressures [2][4] - The rise of instant retail is reshaping consumer behavior and threatening traditional logistics business models, with significant growth expected in the sector [15][18] - The integration of AI technology is revolutionizing operational efficiency in the logistics sector, enhancing service quality and operational management [9][11] Group 1: Industry Trends - Trend 1: The industry is shifting towards stock competition, leading to intensified price competition and a need for companies to innovate and improve service quality [4] - Trend 2: The challenge of increasing delivery fees persists due to ongoing price wars and a lack of motivation for fee increases among logistics providers [5][7] - Trend 3: AI is being embedded across all logistics processes, significantly improving efficiency and reducing complaint rates [9][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Trend 4: The elimination of underperforming logistics points is accelerating due to increased competition and regulatory pressures, with a focus on cost reduction and service improvement [12][14] - Trend 5: Instant retail is rapidly growing, with major platforms achieving significant daily order volumes, posing a threat to traditional logistics operations [15][17] - Trend 6: Chinese logistics companies are expanding internationally, driven by domestic competition and global opportunities, although they face challenges such as high operational costs and cultural differences [19][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding, indicating a positive outlook for the express delivery sector [7][63]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability driven by anti-involution measures, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies such as ZTO Express and J&T Global Express Limited, which are showing high overseas growth [7][63]. - The report highlights that the volume growth of express deliveries has slowed to single digits in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in November 2025, reflecting a trend of maintaining single-digit growth [9][63]. - The anti-involution measures have effectively improved average selling prices (ASP) and profitability across the industry, with notable increases in single ticket revenue for major companies [9][63]. Summary by Sections Investment Advice - The report continues to be optimistic about the express delivery sector, recommending ZTO Express, J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding as key players to watch [7][63]. Industry Volume and Pricing - Q4 2025 saw express delivery volume growth drop to single digits, with the industry achieving a total of 180.6 billion parcels in November, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [9][63]. - The average single ticket revenue for the express delivery industry was 7.62 RMB in November 2025, reflecting an 8.3% decline year-on-year but a 1.9% increase month-on-month [19][63]. - The report notes that the share of intercity express delivery continues to rise, while the share of same-city delivery has decreased slightly [23][24]. Company Performance - S.F. Holding's volume growth outpaced its peers, with a year-on-year increase of 20.13% in November 2025, while other major companies like YTO and Yunda also showed positive growth [35][36]. - The report indicates that profitability is recovering across major companies, with net profit margins for ZTO, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong showing improvements in Q3 2025 [46][63]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is moving towards healthy competition, with leading companies expected to continue to rise in prominence due to their pricing power and market leadership [50][57].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among investment managers is not whether a bull market will occur, but how a slow bull market will unfold, with a reminder to lower return expectations due to fewer "low-hanging fruits" compared to previous years [2] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index saw annual gains of 18.41% and 17.66% respectively in 2025, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 27.77%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 49.57%, indicating strong profitability growth and valuation increases in high-growth sectors [2] - Notable private equity firms achieved impressive annual returns exceeding 50%, with some even doubling their investments, highlighting the potential for high returns in the current market [3] - Many investment managers have maintained above-average performance, focusing on risk management and capital preservation strategies [4] Group 2: Investment Outlook for 2026 - The first key theme for 2026 is AI, with a shift in focus towards the economic feasibility of applications rather than just increased computing power [5][6] - The second theme involves the repricing of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, with many managers believing that the lack of significant price increases has made these assets more attractive [6][7] - The third theme is the structural recovery of consumption, with managers looking for undervalued assets in traditional consumption sectors and recognizing the re-emergence of price advantages in new consumption [7][8] - The fourth theme is the "anti-involution" trend, which has begun to show signs of improving price order in certain industries, such as automotive and aviation [8][9] - The fifth theme focuses on high-quality globalization, with a consensus on the importance of companies that can establish localized ecosystems abroad [9] Group 3: Key Insights from Investment Managers - Investment managers emphasize the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and the need for a cautious approach to AI investments due to potential bubbles [10][16] - The outlook for consumer wealth is optimistic, with expectations for a recovery in consumer spending driven by a stabilization of household wealth [21][22] - The "anti-involution" strategy is seen as having strategic significance, with varying short-term effects across different industries [23] - The transition from "global pricing and safe outbound" to "global investment and local service" reflects the evolving landscape of Chinese manufacturing and its competitive advantages [24] Group 4: Macroeconomic Context - The performance of non-financial real estate companies in A-shares shows limited revenue growth compared to 2023, indicating a trend of declining demand against expanding capacity [26] - The downward trend in prices is expected to continue, supported by fiscal data showing stable tax revenues [27] - Interest rates are projected to remain low, with implications for investment strategies favoring stable, well-governed companies [28][29] - The overall market is anticipated to enter a prolonged slow bull phase, with a focus on sectors that can adapt to changing economic conditions [39]

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express-W (01519) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising by 5.76% to HKD 11.01, with a trading volume of HKD 318 million, following the announcement of a substantial investment in its subsidiaries Jet Global and JNT Express KSA, amounting to USD 1.056 billion [1] Group 1 - The recent acquisition is crucial for Jitu Express's growth, as the new market operations are expected to become a new growth engine for the company [1] - The increased stake will enhance decision-making efficiency due to a more concentrated shareholding structure [1] - The investment is also expected to optimize the company's shareholder structure [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Credit Lyonnais express confidence in Jitu Express's overseas expansion strategy [1] - Guosheng Securities highlights that the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and new markets, along with improved profitability in China, will drive significant future performance growth for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has announced a significant increase in its stake in subsidiaries Jet Global and JNT Express KSA, amounting to $1.056 billion, which is expected to enhance its growth potential in new markets [1] Group 1: Company Developments - J&T Express's stock rose by over 5%, reaching HKD 11.01 with a trading volume of HKD 318 million [1] - The acquisition of additional stakes is seen as crucial for the company's development, as the new market operations are anticipated to become a new growth engine [1] - The increased stake is expected to optimize the company's shareholder structure and improve decision-making efficiency [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts from Credit Lyonnais express confidence in J&T Express's overseas expansion strategy [1] - Guosheng Securities highlights that the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and new markets, along with improved profitability in China, will drive significant future performance growth for the company [1]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased this week, while cement clinker capacity utilization rate improved[1] - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt decreased, while the operating rates for automotive semi-steel and full-steel tires fell[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 33.7% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, a decline of 9.6 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.64% week-on-week as of December 22, 2025[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles in December 2025 were 1.928 million units, down 17% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, 2025, a decrease of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of December 28, 2025, but this was a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The export container shipping price index rose by 2.0% week-on-week, marking the third consecutive week of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.3% this week, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index rose by 0.1%[1] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased by 1% week-on-week, with some prices for fruits and pork rising while vegetable and egg prices fell[1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to ensure a strong start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" by prioritizing domestic demand and building a robust domestic market [3][15] - The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand has shown significant results, with a focus on optimizing the "two new" policies and "two heavy" projects for 2026 [3][4] - The ice and snow economy is highlighted as a strong driver for consumption and domestic demand, with outdoor skiing searches increasing over threefold since December 2025 [5][6] Group 2 - The "old for new" consumption policy has led to a stable market growth, with sales of related products exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, benefiting over 360 million people [6][7] - Investment in equipment and tools has seen a rapid increase, with a 12.2% year-on-year growth in equipment purchases from January to November 2025, contributing to overall investment growth [7][11] - The digital economy and new consumption models are emerging, with significant potential for growth in online retail and immersive consumer experiences [9][10] Group 3 - There is a strong emphasis on the need to boost consumption as a key driver of economic growth, with strategies to enhance consumer purchasing power and improve social security systems [13][14] - Effective investment is crucial for economic stability, with projected fixed asset investments exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025, focusing on infrastructure and public welfare projects [14][15] - The government aims to maintain reasonable investment levels and stimulate private investment to create a stable and predictable environment for economic development [14][15]